Quantifying mortality of modular organisms: a comparison of partial and whole‐colony mortality in a colonial bryozoan

Selection of predictor variables for species distribution models: a case study with an invasive marine bryozoan

Species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools for predicting the occurrence and abundance of organisms in space and time, with numerous applications in ecology. However, the accuracy and utility of SDMs can be compromised when predictor variables are selected without careful consideration of their ecophysiological relevance to the focal organism. We conducted an in-depth examination of the variable selection process by evaluating predictors to be used in SDMs for Membranipora membranacea, an ecologically significant marine invasive species with a complex lifecycle, as a case study. Using an information-theoretic and multi-model inference approach based on generalized linear mixed models, we assessed multiple environmental variables (depth, kelp density, kelp substrate, temperature, and wave exposure) as predictors of the abundance of multiple life stages of M. membranacea, investigating species-environment relationships and relative and absolute variable importance. We found that the relative importance of a predictor, the metric calculated to represent a predictor, and whether a predictor was proximal or distal were important considerations in the variable selection process. Data constraints (e.g. sample size, characteristics of available predictor data) may inhibit accurate assessment of predictor variables during variable selection. Importantly, our results suggest that species-environment relationships derived from small-scale studies can inform variable selection for SDMs at larger spatiotemporal scales. We developed a conceptual framework for variable selection for SDMs which can be applied to most contexts of species distribution modelling, but particularly those with several candidate predictors and a large dataset.

Extensive coral mortality and critical habitat loss following dredging and their association with remotely-sensed sediment plumes

Dredging poses a potential threat to coral reefs, yet quantifying impacts is often difficult due to the large spatial footprint of potential effects and co-occurrence of other disturbances. Here we analyzed in situ monitoring data and remotely-sensed sediment plumes to assess impacts of the 2013-2015 Port of Miami dredging on corals and reef habitat. To control for contemporaneous bleaching and disease, we analyzed the spatial distribution of impacts in relation to the dredged channel. Areas closer to dredging experienced higher sediment trap accumulation, benthic sediment cover, coral burial, and coral mortality, and our spatial analyses indicate that >560,000 corals were killed within 0.5 km, with impacts likely extending over 5-10 km. The occurrence of sediment plumes explained ~60% of spatial variability in measured impacts, suggesting that remotely-sensed plumes, when properly calibrated against in situ monitoring data, can reliably estimate the magnitude and extent of dredging impacts.

Community composition influences the population growth and ecological impact of invasive species in response to climate change

Predicting long-term impacts of introduced species is challenging, since stressors related to global change can influence species-community interactions by affecting both demographic rates of invasive species and the structure of the invaded ecosystems. Invasive species can alter ecosystem structure over time, further complicating interactions between invasive species and invaded communities in response to additional stressors. Few studies have considered how cumulative impacts of species invasion and global change on the structure of invaded ecosystems may influence persistence and population growth of introduced species. Here, we present an empirically based population model for an invasive epiphytic bryozoan that can dramatically alter the structure of its invaded kelp bed ecosystems. We use this model to predict the response of invasive species to climate change and associated changes in the invaded community. Population growth of the bryozoan increased under near-future projections of increasing ocean temperature; however, the magnitude of population growth depended on the community composition of invaded kelp beds. Our results suggest that, in some cases, indirect effects of climate change mediated through changes to the structure of the invaded habitat can modulate direct effects of climate change on invasive species, with consequences for their long-term ecological impact. Our findings have important implications for management of invasive species, as modifying invaded habitats at local to regional scales may be more logistically feasible than addressing stressors related to global climate change.