Testing the match-mismatch hypothesis in bighorn sheep in the context of climate change

In species with long gestation, females commit to reproduction several months before parturition. If cues driving conception date are uncoupled from spring conditions, parturition could be mistimed. Mismatch may increase with global change if the rate of temporal changes in autumn cues differs from the rate of change in spring conditions. Using 17 years of data on climate and vegetation phenology, we show that autumn temperature and precipitation, but not vegetation phenology, explain parturition date in bighorn sheep. Although autumn cues drive the timing of conception, they do not predict conditions at parturition in spring. We calculated the mismatch between individual parturition date and spring green-up, assessed whether mismatch increased over time and investigated the consequences of mismatch on lamb neonatal survival, weaning mass and overwinter survival. Mismatch fluctuated over time but showed no temporal trend. Temporal changes in green-up date did not lead to major fitness consequence of mismatch. Detailed data on individually marked animals revealed no effect of mismatch on neonatal or overwinter survival, but lamb weaning mass was negatively affected by mismatch. Capital breeders might be less sensitive to mismatch than income breeders because they are less dependent on daily food acquisition. Herbivores in seasonal environments may access sufficient forage to sustain lactation before or after the spring 'peak' green-up, and partly mitigate the consequences of a mismatch. Thus, the effect of phenological mismatch on fitness may be affected by species life history, highlighting the complexity in quantifying trophic mismatches in the context of climate change.

Natural history of a bighorn sheep pneumonia epizootic: Source of infection, course of disease, and pathogen clearance

A respiratory disease epizootic at the National Bison Range (NBR) in Montana in 2016-2017 caused an 85% decline in the bighorn sheep population, documented by observations of its unmarked but individually identifiable members, the subjects of an ongoing long-term study. The index case was likely one of a small group of young bighorn sheep on a short-term exploratory foray in early summer of 2016. Disease subsequently spread through the population, with peak mortality in September and October and continuing signs of respiratory disease and sporadic mortality of all age classes through early July 2017. Body condition scores and clinical signs suggested that the disease affected ewe groups before rams, although by the end of the epizootic, ram mortality (90% of 71) exceeded ewe mortality (79% of 84). Microbiological sampling 10 years to 3 months prior to the epizootic had documented no evidence of infection or exposure to Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae at NBR, but during the epizootic, a single genetic strain of M. ovipneumoniae was detected in affected animals. Retrospective screening of domestic sheep flocks near the NBR identified the same genetic strain in one flock, presumptively the source of the epizootic infection. Evidence of fatal lamb pneumonia was observed during the first two lambing seasons following the epizootic but was absent during the third season following the death of the last identified M. ovipneumoniae carrier ewe. Monitoring of life-history traits prior to the epizootic provided no evidence that environmentally and/or demographically induced nutritional or other stress contributed to the epizootic. Furthermore, the epizootic occurred despite proactive management actions undertaken to reduce risk of disease and increase resilience in this population. This closely observed bighorn sheep epizootic uniquely illustrates the natural history of the disease including the (presumptive) source of spillover, course, severity, and eventual pathogen clearance.

Migration distance and maternal resource allocation determine timing of birth in a large herbivore

Birth timing is a key life‐history characteristic that influences fitness and population performance. For migratory animals, however, appropriately timing birth on one seasonal range may be constrained by events occurring during other parts of the migratory cycle. We investigated how the use of capital and income resources may facilitate flexibility in reproductive phenology of migratory mule deer in western Wyoming, USA, over a 5‐yr period (2015–2019). Specifically, we examined how seasonal interactions affected three interrelated life‐history characteristics: fetal development, birth mass, and birth timing. Females in good nutritional condition at the onset of winter and those that migrated short distances had more developed fetuses (measured as fetal eye diameter in March). Variation in parturition date was explained largely by fetal development; however, there were up to 16 d of plasticity in expected birth date. Plasticity in expected birth date was shaped by income resources in the form of exposure to spring green‐up. Although individuals that experienced greater exposure to spring green‐up were able to advance expected birth date, being born early or late with respect to fetal development had no effect on birth mass of offspring. Furthermore, we investigated the trade‐offs migrating mule deer face by evaluating support for existing theory that predicts that births should be matched to local peaks in resource availability at the birth site. In contrast to this prediction, only long‐distance migrants that paced migration with the flush of spring green‐up, giving birth shortly after ending migration, were able to match birth with spring green‐up. Shorter‐distance migrants completed migration sooner and gave birth earlier, seemingly trading off more time for offspring to grow and develop over greater access to resources. Thus, movement tactic had profound downstream effects on birth timing. These findings highlight a need to reconsider classical theory on optimal birth timing, which has focused solely on conditions at the birth site.

Tracking snowmelt to jump the green wave: phenological drivers of migration in a northern ungulate

In northern climates, spring is a time of rapid environmental change: for migrating terrestrial animals, melting snow facilitates foraging and travel, and newly emergent vegetation provides a valuable nutritional resource. These changes result in selection on the timing of important life-history events such as migration and parturition occurring when high-quality resources are most abundant. We examined the timing of female caribou (Rangifer tarandus, n = 94) migration and parturition in five herds across 7 yr in Newfoundland, Canada, as a function of two measures of environmental change-snowmelt and vegetation green-up. We generated resource selection functions to test whether caribou selected for areas associated with snowmelt and green-up during migration and following calving. We found that caribou migrated approximately 1 wk prior to snowmelt, with the flush of emergent vegetation occurring during the weeks following parturition. The results indicate that caribou "jump" the green wave of emergent forage and do so by tracking the receding edge of melting snow, likely reducing movement and foraging costs related to snow cover. Our research further broadens the ecological scope of resource tracking in animals. We demonstrate that resource tracking extends beyond resources directly related to foraging to those related to movement. We also show that snowmelt provides an environmental cue that may provide a buffer against changing environmental conditions.

Disentangling direct and indirect determinants of the duration of maternal care in brown bears: Environmental context matters

The duration of maternal care, an important life‐history trait affecting population dynamics, varies greatly within species. Yet, our understanding of its predictors is limited, mostly correlative and subject to misinterpretations, due to difficulties to disentangle the role of maternal‐ and offspring‐related characteristics.

We conducted path analysis on a dataset including 217 brown bear litters captured over a 29‐year period in two populations in Sweden (‘North’ and ‘South’) facing contrasting environmental conditions to identify and quantify the causes of variation in the duration of maternal care (1.5 or 2.5 years).

We showed that the causal determinants of the duration of maternal care were context‐dependent. Contrary to their expected central role in the determination of the duration of maternal care, yearling mass and its direct determinants (i.e. litter size and maternal mass) were only important in the North population, where environmental conditions are harsher and the cost of extended maternal care presumably higher. In the South, the duration of maternal care was not caused by yearling mass nor any maternal or litter characteristics. Extension of maternal care may thus result from factors independent from maternal and offspring condition in the South, such as an artificial hunting‐induced selection for longer maternal care through the legal protection of family groups.

Our results provide an important contribution to our very limited knowledge of the direct and indirect determinants of the duration of maternal care and highlight the importance of accounting for the environmental context when assessing maternal reproductive tactics.

Maternal and offspring effects on the timing of parturition in western Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus)

Identifying factors that affect the timing of parturition among annual breeders is important to aid our understanding of how variations may adversely affect population trends over both short and long temporal scales. We investigated the effect of several parameters on the timing of parturition among individual Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus (Schreber, 1776)) over 6 years between 2005 and 2016 using an information–theoretic approach. In addition to the random effect of year, birth and care of a pup in the previous year had the largest effect on parturition, causing a 2.4 day delay. Maternal age was negatively correlated with timing of parturition and male pups were born nearly a day earlier than female pups, on average. There was limited support for effects of sex and mass, with heavier pups born marginally earlier than lighter ones. This study illustrates some of the complexity of variables that can influence the timing of birth in this species and which should be considered in models that attempt to identify long-term trends in changing marine ecosystems.