Environmental variability indicates a climate‐adaptive center under threat in northern Mozambique coral reefs

Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change

Identifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses of climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one of the key recommendations for climate change adaptation. We review and summarize approximately 30 years of applied research focused on identifying climate refugia to prioritize the conservation actions for coral reefs under rapid climate change. We found that currently proposed climate refugia and the locations predicted to avoid future coral losses are highly reliant on  excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, and life-history variables could be used to identify other types of refugia that lead to the desired diversified portfolio for coral reef conservation. To improve conservation priorities for coral reefs, there is a need to evaluate and validate the predictions of climate refugia with long-term field data on coral abundance, diversity, and functioning. There is also the need to identify and safeguard locations displaying resistance toprolonged exposure to heat waves and the ability to recover quickly after thermal exposure. We recommend using more metrics to identify a portfolio of potential refugia sites for coral reefs that can avoid, resist, and recover from exposure to high ocean temperatures and the consequences of climate change, thereby shifting past efforts focused on avoidance to a diversified risk-spreading portfolio that can be used to improve strategic coral reef conservation in a rapidly warming climate.

Approaching Sea-Level Rise (SLR) Change: Strengthening Local Responses to Sea-Level Rise and Coping with Climate Change in Northern Mozambique

Mean sea-level is expected to rise significantly by 2100 in all scenarios, including those compatible with the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement. Global sea level rise projections indicate devastating implications for populations, ecosystem services and biodiversity. The implications of the sea-level rise (SLR) on low-lying islands and coastal regions and communities are substantial and require deep-rooted coping measures. In the absence of adequate responses for coping, Mozambique is expected to record huge losses, with an impact on the economy and development in many sectors of its coastal regions mainly in northern Mozambique. This research aimed to perform projections on SLR in Mozambique, and to understand its role and implications on the north coast of the country. SLR was estimated through the analysis of model outputs that support the global estimates of the fifth IPCC report near the Mozambican coast, for each of the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Regional coastline retreat and coastal erosion were estimated through the results of global sandy coastlines projections developed by Vousdoukas. Mean sea-level rise projections indicate that regional estimates for the Mozambican coast are relative higher than global estimates (~0.05 m) for all representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Yet, we highlight significant differences in sea-level rises of 0.5 m, 0.7 m or 1.0 m by 2100 compared to the global mean. It is expected that with the increase in the mean sea level in the northern part of the Mozambican coast, erosive effects will increase, as well as the retreat of the coastline until 2100. With this, the tourism sector, settlements, ecosystem services and local populations are expected to be significantly affected by 2050, with increased threats in 2100 (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Local responses for coping are proposed and properly discussed for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios through 2100.

Applying a Social–Ecological Systems Approach to Understanding Local Marine Management Trajectories in Northern Mozambique

This study applied the social–ecological systems framework (SESF) to six fishing communities in northern Mozambique where marine resource management is being implemented through the Our Sea Our Life project. Data on 11 variables and 27 indicators were organised using the SESF to represent the key system dimensions (Governance system, Actors, Resource units and Resource system). Variables within each dimension were weighed to a cumulative score of one. High scores (> 0.50) for Governance system occurred where communities had fisheries management rules and good knowledge of fishing gear regulations. High scores for Actors were evident in communities with few migrant fishers and high participation in village savings and loans associations. Elevated scores of the Resource units occurred where fishers targeted a variety of fish taxa. A healthy Resource system was found in communities neighbouring highly productive and resilient reefs, characterised by high fish biomass and diversity. The status of social and ecological conditions coupled with initial levels of project support and quality of technical support were linked with project achievements. Application of the SESF is therefore valuable in understanding interdependent linkages between social and environmental conditions to inform the design of localised management interventions for social–ecological sustainability.