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Changes in the Suitable Habitats of Three Endemic Fishes to Climate Change in Tibet. BIOLOGY 2022; 11:biology11121808. [PMID: 36552317 PMCID: PMC9774986 DOI: 10.3390/biology11121808] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2022] [Revised: 12/09/2022] [Accepted: 12/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
As one of the most sensitive regions to global climate change, Tibet is subject to remarkable changes in biota over the past decades, including endemic fish species. However, no study has attempted to predict the changes in the distribution of Tibetan fishes, leaving a great blank for aquatic conservation in Tibet. Based on the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt), this study predicted the changes in the suitable habitats of three endemic fish species, including two species mainly inhabiting the rivers (Glyptosternon maculatum, Oxygymnocypris stewartii) and one species mainly inhabiting lakes (Gymnocypris selincuoensis) in Tibet under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) under two future scenarios (2050 and 2090), and explored the impact of the barrier effects of hydropower projects on the suitable habitats of fish. The results showed that under the four scenarios, the net change in the suitable habitats of the G. maculatum was negative (-2.0--18.8%), while the suitable habitats of the O. stewartii and G. selincuoensis would be expanded, with the net change of 60.0-238.3% and 46.4-56.9%, respectively. Under different scenarios, the suitable habitats of the three species had a tendency to migrate to a higher elevation, and the largest expansion in the range of migration was projected to occur under the 2090-RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, due to the impact of the hydropower projects, the ability of G. maculatum to obtain new suitable habitats from climate change would be reduced by 2.0-8.1%, which was less than the loss induced by climate change (5.5-25.1%), while the suitable habitats of O. stewartii would be reduced by 3.0-9.7%, which was more than the impact of climate change (about 1%). The results of this study have guiding significance for the conservation and management of fish resources diversity in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin and Siling Co basin of Tibet, and also provide a reference for the coordination and scientific planning of hydropower projects in Tibet.
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Chevalier M, Tedesco P, Grenouillet G. Spatial patterns in the contribution of biotic and abiotic factors to the population dynamics of three freshwater fish species. PeerJ 2022; 10:e12857. [PMID: 35228906 PMCID: PMC8881916 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.12857] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2021] [Accepted: 01/09/2022] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population dynamics are driven by a number of biotic (e.g., density-dependence) and abiotic (e.g., climate) factors whose contribution can greatly vary across study systems (i.e., populations). Yet, the extent to which the contribution of these factors varies across populations and between species and whether spatial patterns can be identified has received little attention. METHODS Here, we used a long-term (1982-2011), broad scale (182 sites distributed across metropolitan France) dataset to study spatial patterns in the population's dynamics of three freshwater fish species presenting contrasted life-histories and patterns of elevation range shifts in recent decades. We used a hierarchical Bayesian approach together with an elasticity analysis to estimate the relative contribution of a set of biotic (e.g., strength of density dependence, recruitment rate) and abiotic (mean and variability of water temperature) factors affecting the site-specific dynamic of two different size classes (0+ and >0+ individuals) for the three species. We then tested whether the local contribution of each factor presented evidence for biogeographical patterns by confronting two non-mutually exclusive hypotheses: the "range-shift" hypothesis that predicts a gradient along elevation or latitude and the "abundant-center" hypothesis that predicts a gradient from the center to the edge of the species' distributional range. RESULTS Despite contrasted life-histories, the three species displayed similar large-scale patterns in population dynamics with a much stronger contribution of biotic factors over abiotic ones. Yet, the contribution of the different factors strongly varied within distributional ranges and followed distinct spatial patterns. Indeed, while abiotic factors mostly varied along elevation, biotic factors-which disproportionately contributed to population dynamics-varied along both elevation and latitude. CONCLUSIONS Overall while our results provide stronger support for the range-shift hypothesis, they also highlight the dual effect of distinct factors on spatial patterns in population dynamics and can explain the overall difficulty to find general evidence for geographic gradients in natural populations. We propose that considering the separate contribution of the factors affecting population dynamics could help better understand the drivers of abundance-distribution patterns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathieu Chevalier
- Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO, Laboratoire d’Ecologie Benthique Côtière (LEBCO), IFREMER, Plouzané, France
| | - Pablo Tedesco
- Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique (EDB), CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
| | - Gael Grenouillet
- Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique (EDB), CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
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Clusella-Trullas S, Garcia RA, Terblanche JS, Hoffmann AA. How useful are thermal vulnerability indices? Trends Ecol Evol 2021; 36:1000-1010. [PMID: 34384645 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2021.07.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2021] [Revised: 06/23/2021] [Accepted: 07/06/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
To forecast climate change impacts across habitats or taxa, thermal vulnerability indices (e.g., safety margins and warming tolerances) are growing in popularity. Here, we present their history, context, formulation, and current applications. We highlight discrepancies in terminology and usage, and we draw attention to key assumptions underpinning the main indices and to their ecological and evolutionary relevance. In the process, we flag biases influencing these indices that are not always evaluated. These biases affect both components of index formulations, namely: (i) the characterisation of the thermal environment; and (ii) an organism's physiological and behavioural responses to more frequent and severe warming. Presently, many outstanding questions weaken a thermal vulnerability index approach. We describe ways to validate vulnerability index applications and outline issues to be considered in further developing these indices.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Raquel A Garcia
- Department of Botany & Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - John S Terblanche
- Department of Conservation Ecology & Entomology, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Ary A Hoffmann
- School of BioSciences, Bio21 Institute, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
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Fahd F, Yang M, Khan F, Veitch B. A food chain-based ecological risk assessment model for oil spills in the Arctic environment. MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 2021; 166:112164. [PMID: 33640599 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2020] [Revised: 01/29/2021] [Accepted: 02/05/2021] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
This paper investigates the linkage between the acute impacts on apex marine mammals with polar cod responses to an oil spill. It proposes a Bayesian network-based model to link these direct and indirect effects on the apex marine mammals. The model predicts a recruitment collapse (for the scenarios considered), causing a higher risk of mortality of polar bears, beluga whales, and Narwhals in the Arctic region. Whales (adult and calves) were predicted to be at higher risk when the spill was under thick ice, while adult polar bears were at higher risk when the spill occurred on thin ice. A spill over the thick ice caused the least risk to whale and adult polar bears. The spill's timing and location have a significant impact on the animals in the Arctic region due to its unique sea ice dynamics, simple food web, and short periods of food abundance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Faisal Fahd
- Centre for Risk, Integrity and Safety Engineering (C-RISE), Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's A1B 3X5, NL, Canada
| | - Ming Yang
- Safety and Security Sciences Section, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, the Netherlands
| | - Faisal Khan
- Centre for Risk, Integrity and Safety Engineering (C-RISE), Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's A1B 3X5, NL, Canada.
| | - Brian Veitch
- Centre for Risk, Integrity and Safety Engineering (C-RISE), Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's A1B 3X5, NL, Canada
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Herrera-R GA, Oberdorff T, Anderson EP, Brosse S, Carvajal-Vallejos FM, Frederico RG, Hidalgo M, Jézéquel C, Maldonado M, Maldonado-Ocampo JA, Ortega H, Radinger J, Torrente-Vilara G, Zuanon J, Tedesco PA. The combined effects of climate change and river fragmentation on the distribution of Andean Amazon fishes. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:5509-5523. [PMID: 32785968 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15285] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2019] [Revised: 06/04/2020] [Accepted: 06/30/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Upstream range shifts of freshwater fishes have been documented in recent years due to ongoing climate change. River fragmentation by dams, presenting physical barriers, can limit the climatically induced spatial redistribution of fishes. Andean freshwater ecosystems in the Neotropical region are expected to be highly affected by these future disturbances. However, proper evaluations are still missing. Combining species distribution models and functional traits of Andean Amazon fishes, coupled with dam locations and climatic projections (2070s), we (a) evaluated the potential impacts of future climate on species ranges, (b) investigated the combined impact of river fragmentation and climate change and (c) tested the relationships between these impacts and species functional traits. Results show that climate change will induce range contraction for most of the Andean Amazon fish species, particularly those inhabiting highlands. Dams are not predicted to greatly limit future range shifts for most species (i.e., the Barrier effect). However, some of these barriers should prevent upstream shifts for a considerable number of species, reducing future potential diversity in some basins. River fragmentation is predicted to act jointly with climate change in promoting a considerable decrease in the probability of species to persist in the long-term because of splitting species ranges in smaller fragments (i.e., the Isolation effect). Benthic and fast-flowing water adapted species with hydrodynamic bodies are significantly associated with severe range contractions from climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guido A Herrera-R
- UMR Laboratoire Évolution et Diversité Biologique, CNRS 5174, IRD 253, UPS, Toulouse, France
- Department of Earth and Environment and Institute of Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Thierry Oberdorff
- UMR Laboratoire Évolution et Diversité Biologique, CNRS 5174, IRD 253, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - Elizabeth P Anderson
- Department of Earth and Environment and Institute of Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Sébastien Brosse
- UMR Laboratoire Évolution et Diversité Biologique, CNRS 5174, IRD 253, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - Fernando M Carvajal-Vallejos
- Laboratorio de Biología Molecular y Cultivo de Tejidos Vegetales, Departamento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias y Tecnología, Universidad Mayor de San Simón, Cochabamba, Bolivia
| | - Renata G Frederico
- Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Max Hidalgo
- Departamento de Ictiología, Museo de Historia Natural, Universidad Nacional Mayor San Marcos, Lima, Peru
| | - Céline Jézéquel
- UMR Laboratoire Évolution et Diversité Biologique, CNRS 5174, IRD 253, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - Mabel Maldonado
- Unidad de Limnología y Recursos Acuáticos, Universidad Mayor de San Simón, Cochabamba, Bolivia
| | - Javier A Maldonado-Ocampo
- Unidad de Ecología y Sistemática (UNESIS), Laboratorio de Ictiología, Departamento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Hernán Ortega
- Departamento de Ictiología, Museo de Historia Natural, Universidad Nacional Mayor San Marcos, Lima, Peru
| | - Johannes Radinger
- GRECO, Institute of Aquatic Ecology, University of Girona, Girona, Spain
- Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Jansen Zuanon
- Coordenacão de Biodiversidade, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia (INPA), Manaus, Brazil
| | - Pablo A Tedesco
- UMR Laboratoire Évolution et Diversité Biologique, CNRS 5174, IRD 253, UPS, Toulouse, France
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Hamilton AT, Schäfer RB, Pyne MI, Chessman B, Kakouie K, Boersma KS, Verdonschot PF, Verdonschot RC, Mims M, Khamis K, Bierwagen B, Stamp J. Limitations of trait-based approaches for stressor assessment: The case of freshwater invertebrates and climate drivers. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:364-379. [PMID: 31553112 PMCID: PMC10839858 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14846] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2019] [Revised: 08/29/2019] [Accepted: 09/09/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
The appeal of trait-based approaches for assessing environmental vulnerabilities arises from the potential insight they provide into the mechanisms underlying the changes in populations and community structure. Traits can provide ecologically based explanations for observed responses to environmental changes, along with predictive power gained by developing relationships between traits and environmental variables. Despite these potential benefits, questions remain regarding the utility and limitations of these approaches, which we explore focusing on the following questions: (a) How reliable are predictions of biotic responses to changing conditions based on single trait-environment relationships? (b) What factors constrain detection of single trait-environment relationships, and how can they be addressed? (c) Can we use information on meta-community processes to reveal conditions when assumptions underlying trait-based studies are not met? We address these questions by reviewing published literature on aquatic invertebrate communities from stream ecosystems. Our findings help to define factors that influence the successful application of trait-based approaches in addressing the complex, multifaceted effects of changing climate conditions on hydrologic and thermal regimes in stream ecosystems. Key conclusions are that observed relationships between traits and environmental stressors are often inconsistent with predefined hypotheses derived from current trait-based thinking, particularly related to single trait-environment relationships. Factors that can influence findings of trait-based assessments include intercorrelations of among traits and among environmental variables, spatial scale, strength of biotic interactions, intensity of habitat disturbance, degree of abiotic stress, and methods of trait characterization. Several recommendations are made for practice and further study to address these concerns, including using phylogenetic relatedness to address intercorrelation. With proper consideration of these issues, trait-based assessment of organismal vulnerability to environmental changes can become a useful tool to conserve threatened populations into the future.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Ralf B. Schäfer
- iES Landau, Institute for Environmental Sciences, University Koblenz-Landau Fortstrasse 7 76829 Landau, Germany
| | | | - Bruce Chessman
- Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Karan Kakouie
- Department of Ecosystem Research, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany
| | - Kate S. Boersma
- Department of Biology, University of San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Piet F.M. Verdonschot
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Ralf C.M. Verdonschot
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Meryl Mims
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | - Kieran Khamis
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Britta Bierwagen
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Jen Stamp
- Tetra Tech Center for Ecological Sciences, Montpelier, VT, USA
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Chan B, Sor R, Ngor PB, Baehr C, Lek S. Modelling spatial and temporal dynamics of two small mud carp species in the Tonle Sap flood-pulse ecosystem. Ecol Modell 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.11.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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