How to estimate population size in crocodylians? Population ecology of American crocodiles in Coiba Island as study case

Assessing abundance-suitability models to prioritize conservation areas for the dwarf caimans in South America

Species-environment relationships have been extensively explored through species distribution models (SDM) and species abundance models (SAM), which have become key components to understand the spatial ecology and population dynamics directed at biodiversity conservation. Nonetheless, within the internal structure of species' ranges, habitat suitability and species abundance do not always show similar patterns, and using information derived from either SDM or SAM could be incomplete and mislead conservation efforts. We gauged support for the abundance-suitability relationship and used the combined information to prioritize the conservation of South American dwarf caimans (Paleosuchus palpebrosus and P. trigonatus). We used 7 environmental predictor sets (surface water, human impact, topography, precipitation, temperature, dynamic habitat indices, soil temperature), 2 regressions methods (Generalized Linear Models-GLM, Generalized Additive Models-GAM), and 4 parametric distributions (Binomial, Poisson, Negative binomial, Gamma) to develop distribution and abundance models. We used the best predictive models to define four categories (low, medium, high, very high) to plan species conservation. The best distribution and abundance models for both Paleosuchus species included a combination of all predictor sets, except for the best abundance model for P. trigonatus which incorporated only temperature, precipitation, surface water, human impact, and topography. We found non-consistent and low explanatory power of environmental suitability to predict abundance which aligns with previous studies relating SDM-SAM. We extracted the most relevant information from each optimal SDM and SAM and created a consensus model (2,790,583 km2) that we categorized as low (39.6%), medium (42.7%), high (14.9%), and very high (2.8%) conservation priorities. We identified 279,338 km2 where conservation must be critically prioritized and only 29% of these areas are under protection. We concluded that optimal models from correlative methods can be used to provide a systematic prioritization scheme to promote conservation and as surrogates to generate insights for quantifying ecological patterns.

N, Subedi S, Gautam S, Ayer S, Bayne E. Gharial (Gavialis gangeticus) conservation in Bardia National Park, Nepal: Assessing population structure and habitat characteristics along the river channel amidst infrastructure development

Nepal initiated numerous hydropower and irrigation-related infrastructure projects to enhance and promote green energy, water security, and agricultural productivity. However, these projects may pose risks to natural habitats and the well-being of aquatic fauna, leading to significant effects on delicate ecosystems. To understand these potential impacts, it is crucial to gather reliable baseline data on the population status and habitat characteristics of species. This study specifically focuses on Gharials (Gavialis gangeticus), a critically endangered species. We recorded data on pre-determined habitat variables at stations spaced 500 m apart along the two major river streams of Bardia National Park, as well as at locations where Gharials were sighted between February and March 2023. We used binary logistic regression with a logit link function to investigate the habitat characteristics related to the occurrence of Gharials. The presence/absence of Gharials at sampling points served as the dependent variable, while 10 other predetermined variables (ecological variables and disturbance variables) served as independent variables. Our study recorded 23 Gharials, comprising 14 adults, six sub-adults, and three juveniles, with a sex ratio of 55.56 males per 100 females. Most individuals (83%) were found basking. Among the 10 habitat predictors, three variables (mid-river depth, river width, and water temperature) were significantly correlated (p < .05) with the probability of Gharial occurrence. The model shows that Gharial detection probability increases with greater mid-river depth and width and lower water temperature. This study establishes a population baseline for Gharials within the river system before the construction of large infrastructure projects, such as dams and irrigation canals. It also recommends continuous monitoring of Gharial populations after water release and/or diversion to evaluate the impact of large infrastructure projects on the population and their associated habitat characteristics. This will help enable more informed and targeted conservation efforts.

Population trends of Mugger Crocodile and human-crocodile interactions along the Savitri River at Mahad, Maharashtra, India

In this paper, we report monitoring of a resident population of Mugger Crocodile Crocodylus palustris (Lesson, 1831)  along a stretch of 3.5 km of the river Savitri on the outskirts of Mahad town of Raigad District in Maharashtra, on monthly basis from 2014 to 2021.  This river is increasingly becoming a sink of anthropogenic wastes emerging from adjacent settlements impacting its habitat value, and puts the reptile side by side with humans and human-wastes that could be a cause of rising incidents of crocodile mortality in the recent times here, as also reported from elsewhere.  Savitri River has been a fishing ground for local indigenous communities, who also use the river bank for washing clothes and utensils, and for swimming.  Such proximity between people and crocodiles creates a potential for negative interaction.  This long term study monitored the Mugger population trends for the last eight years at four transect stretches along the river.  Counts are suggestive of a healthy viable population of Mugger in this river currently, but a future conflict situation cannot be ruled out.  Being generalist feeders, Muggers can sustain themselves on fish, and scavenge on dumped carrion and other anthropogenic organic wastes.  With the exception of a few sporadic incidents of aggression by the Muggers at this location, no human casualties have been reported thus far, however, this does not rule out fatal reciprocal interactions in future and hence a few practical mitigation measures have been suggested.  

Gharial (Gavialis gangeticus, Gmelin, 1789) abundance in the Rapti River, Chitwan National Park, Nepal

Gharial (Gavialis gangeticus) is a Critically Endangered crocodilian species whose abundance in Nepalese rivers is low due to the threat they face. We estimated gharial abundance in the Rapti River, one of the major rivers in Chitwan National Park (CNP) holding the largest numbers of gharials in Nepal. The Rapti River, running across the CNP, was divided into 18 segments, each measuring ~4 km, and gharials were counted directly with three replicates. Gharial count data were analyzed using an N-mixture model (negative binomial) and the overall occupancy of gharials was estimated using a single season occupancy model. Covariate effects were also investigated on gharial abundance. Our findings revealed that the Rapti River is home to 150 gharials (119-181), with a mean abundance of 8.3 (SD = 3.45) across each segment. The presence of humans and square of Rapti River depth were the significant covariates that had a negative and positive impact on gharial abundance, respectively. Similarly, the number of sandbank present influenced the detection probability of gharials. Our study shows that gharial population estimation can be improved using the N-mixture model. The overall gharial occupancy estimated using single season occupancy model was 0.84 (SD = 0.08), with a detection probability of 0.37 (SD = 0.02). The management authority should concentrate on segments to minimize human disturbance (e.g., fishing, washing clothes, extraction of riverbed materials). If the gharial population in this river declines, their population in central Nepal will be threatened. Hence, we suggest designating the Rapti River section that passes across the CNP as a "no extraction zone."

N-mixture models provide informative crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii) abundance estimates in dynamic environments

Estimates of animal abundance provide essential information for population ecological studies. However, the recording of individuals in the field can be challenging, and accurate estimates require analytical techniques which account for imperfect detection. Here, we quantify local abundances and overall population size of Morelet's crocodiles (Crocodylus moreletii) in the region of Calakmul (Campeche, Mexico), comparing traditional approaches for crocodylians (Minimum Population Size-MPS; King's Visible Fraction Method-VFM) with binomial N-mixture models based on Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and negative binomial (NB) distributions. A total of 191 nocturnal spotlight surveys were conducted across 40 representative locations (hydrologically highly dynamic aquatic sites locally known as aguadas) over a period of 3 years (2017-2019). Local abundance estimates revealed a median of 1 both through MPS (min-max: 0-89; first and third quartiles, Q₁-Q₃: 0-7) and VFM (0-112; Q₁-Q₃: 0-9) non-hatchling C. moreletii for each aguada, respectively. The ZIP based N-mixture approach shown overall superior confidence over Poisson and NB, and revealed a median of 6 ± 3 individuals (min = 0; max = 120 ± 18; Q₁ = 0; Q₃ = 18 ± 4) jointly with higher detectabilities in drying aguadas with low and intermediate vegetation cover. Extrapolating these inferences across all waterbodies in the study area yielded an estimated ~10,000 (7,000-11,000) C. moreletii present, highlighting Calakmul as an important region for this species. Because covariates enable insights into population responses to local environmental conditions, N-mixture models applied to spotlight count data result in particularly insightful estimates of crocodylian detection and abundance.