Flood-irrigated agriculture mediates climate-induced wetland scarcity for summering sandhill cranes in western North America

Information about species distributions is lacking in many regions of the world, forcing resource managers to answer complex ecological questions with incomplete data. Information gaps are compounded by climate change, driving ecological bottlenecks that can act as new demographic constraints on fauna. Here, we construct greater sandhill crane (Antigone canadensis tabida) summering range in western North America using movement data from 120 GPS-tagged individuals to determine how landscape composition shaped their distributions. Landscape variables developed from remotely sensed data were combined with bird locations to model distribution probabilities. Additionally, land-use and ownership were summarized within summer range as a measure of general bird use. Wetland variables identified as important predictors of bird distributions were evaluated in a post hoc analysis to measure long-term (1984-2022) effects of climate-driven surface water drying. Wetlands and associated agricultural practices accounted for 1.2% of summer range but were key predictors of occurrence. Bird distributions were structured by riparian floodplains that concentrated wetlands, and flood-irrigated agriculture in otherwise arid and semi-arid landscapes. Findings highlighted the role of private lands in greater sandhill crane ecology as they accounted for 78% of predicted distributions. Wetland drying observed in portions of the range from 1984 to 2022 represented an emerging ecological bottleneck that could limit future greater sandhill crane summer range. Study outcomes provide novel insight into the significance of ecosystem services provided by flood-irrigated agriculture that supported nearly 60% of wetland resources used by birds. Findings suggest greater sandhill cranes function as a surrogate species for agroecology and climate change adaptation strategies seeking to reduce agricultural water use through improved efficiency while also maintaining distinct flood-irrigation practices supporting greater sandhill cranes and other wetland-dependent wildlife. We make our wetland and sandhill crane summering distributions available as interactive web-based mapping tools to inform conservation design.

Climate change causes declines and greater extremes in wetland inundation in a region important for wetland birds

Wetland ecosystems are vital for maintaining global biodiversity, as they provide important stopover sites for many species of migrating wetland-associated birds. However, because weather determines their hydrologic cycles, wetlands are highly vulnerable to effects of climate change. Although changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change are expected to reduce inundation of wetlands, few efforts have been made to quantify how these changes will influence the availability of stopover sites for migratory wetland birds. Additionally, few studies have evaluated how climate change will influence interannual variability or the frequency of extremes in wetland availability. For spring and fall bird migration in seven ecoregions in the south-central Great Plains of North America, we developed predictive models associating abundance of inundated wetlands with a suite of weather and land cover variables. We then used these models to generate predictions of wetland inundation at the end of the century (2069-2099) under future climate change scenarios. Climate models predicted the average number of inundated wetlands will likely decline during both spring and fall migration periods, with declines being greatest in the eastern ecoregions of the southern Great Plains. However, the magnitude of predicted declines varied considerably across climate models and ecoregions, with uncertainty among climate models being greatest in the High Plains ecoregion. Most ecoregions also were predicted to experience more-frequent extremely dry years (i.e., years with extremely low wetland abundances), but the projected change in interannual variability of wetland inundation was relatively small and varied across ecoregions and seasons. Because the south-central Great Plains represents an important link along the migratory routes of many wetland-dependent avian species, future declines in wetland inundation and more frequent periods of only a few wetlands being inundated will result in an uncertain future for migratory birds as they experience reduced availability of wetland stopover habitat across their migration pathways.

Breeding and migration performance metrics highlight challenges for White-naped Cranes

Globally, habitat loss has been deemed a major threat to wetland bird populations. However, the underlying mechanism of population declines and variations in the birds' vulnerability throughout their annual cycle is challenging to determine, yet critical for development of targeted conservation strategies. Over seven years, landscape water availability explained occupancy of breeding territories best when breeding performance, migratory performance, and annual survival of the White-naped Crane (Grus vipio) population in eastern Mongolia were studied. Also, the hatching success of eggs was positively correlated with water availability in addition to plant productivity. High ambient temperatures and large numbers of herder families (and hence more livestock) negatively affected hatching success. High water availability at Luan, a major stopover site increased migration speed during the cranes' northbound migration to their breeding grounds. In contrast, when water conditions were favorable, the birds stayed longer at the stopover site during southbound migration. Increased human density reduced the use of the stopover site during northbound migration. Finally, cranes arrived early at the breeding grounds when ambient temperature was high in northeast Mongolia. Combining these findings with historical trends in key environmental factors on their breeding grounds explains the general decline observed in this population of cranes in recent decades. Extrapolating our findings with future climate predictions, the outlook seems poor unless urgent action is taken. Knowledge of the mechanisms underlying White-naped Crane population decline in eastern Mongolia identified in this paper should improve the effectiveness of these actions.

Study on the rare waterbird habitat networks of a new UNESCO World Natural Heritage site based on scenario simulation

As a newly established World Natural Heritage site, the conservation of rare waterbird habitats in the Yancheng coastal wetlands has attracted wide international attention. In view of the importance of this area in international biodiversity conservation and waterbird habitat conservation, the study of the current situation of rare waterbird habitat networks with spatial isolation features of great demonstration significance to improve the habitat conservation quality of the heritage site. Based on the data obtained from habitat suitability assessments of rare waterbirds, this paper used complex network theory, ecological stepping-stone theory and circuit models to analyze the current status and robustness of rare waterbird habitat networks in the Yancheng coastal wetlands. The results showed that the stepping stones of the red-crowned cranes and the Oriental storks were mainly distributed around important habitat areas, including aquaculture ponds and reed marshes, with areas of 1275.68 hm² and 1247.74 hm², respectively, while the stepping stones of Saunders's gulls were mainly distributed within the Tiaozini habitat site, with an area of 1180.76 hm². The stability and connectivity of the habitat networks of red-crowned cranes and Oriental storks in the northern habitat area were better. At the Tiaozini habitat site, there was spatial isolation and low connectivity among the habitats and stepping stones of Saunders's gulls. In the optimal protection scenario, the stability and connectivity of the habitat network structure of red-crowned cranes and Oriental storks were the best, and the networks tended to exhibit assortativity. In the random destruction scenario, the connectivity of the habitat networks of Saunders's gulls was the lowest, and the network structure was the most fragile. Finally, the optimization and restoration patterns of habitat network based on improving the support capacity of important habitat nodes and the enhancement of the stability and connectivity of the stepping-stone networks were proposed.

Balancing future renewable energy infrastructure siting and associated habitat loss for migrating whooping cranes

The expansion of human infrastructure has contributed to novel risks and disturbance regimes in most ecosystems, leading to considerable uncertainty about how species will respond to altered landscapes. A recent assessment revealed that whooping cranes (Grus americana), an endangered migratory waterbird species, avoid wind-energy infrastructure during migration. However, uncertainties regarding collective impacts of other types of human infrastructure, such as power lines, variable drought conditions, and continued construction of wind energy infrastructure may compromise ongoing recovery efforts for whooping cranes. Droughts are increasing in frequency and severity throughout the whooping crane migration corridor, and the impacts of drought on stopover habitat use are largely unknown. Moreover, decision-based analyses are increasingly advocated to guide recovery planning for endangered species, yet applications remain rare. Using GPS locations from 57 whooping cranes from 2010 through 2016 in the United States Great Plains, we assessed habitat selection and avoidance of potential disturbances during migration relative to drought conditions, and we used these results in an optimization analysis to select potential sites for new wind energy developments that minimize relative habitat loss for whooping cranes and maximize wind energy potential. Drought occurrence and severity varied spatially and temporally across the migration corridor during our study period. Whooping cranes rarely used areas <5 km from human settlements and wind energy infrastructure under both drought and non-drought conditions, and <2 km from power lines during non-drought conditions, with the lowest likelihood of use near wind energy infrastructure. Whooping cranes differed in their selection of wetland and cropland land cover types depending on drought or non-drought conditions. We identified scenarios for wind energy expansion across the migration corridor and in select states, which are robust to uncertain drought conditions, where future loss of highly selected stopover habitats could be minimized under a common strategy. Our approach was to estimate functional habitat loss while integrating current disturbances, potential future disturbances, and uncertainty in drought conditions. Therefore, dynamic models describing potential costs associated with risk-averse behaviors resulting from future developments can inform proactive conservation before population impacts occur.

Functional Wetland Loss Drives Emerging Risks to Waterbird Migration Networks

Migratory waterbirds (i.e., shorebirds, wading birds, and waterfowl) rely on a diffuse continental network of wetland habitats to support annual life cycle needs. Emerging threats of climate and land-use change raise new concerns over the sustainability of these habitat networks as water scarcity triggers cascading ecological effects impacting wetland habitat availability. Here we use important waterbird regions in Oregon and California, United States, as a model system to examine patterns of landscape change impacting wetland habitat networks in western North America. Wetland hydrology and flooded agricultural habitats were monitored monthly from 1988 to 2020 using satellite imagery to quantify the timing and duration of inundation—a key delimiter of habitat niche values associated with waterbird use. Trends were binned by management practice and wetland hydroperiods (semi-permanent, seasonal, and temporary) to identify differences in their climate and land-use change sensitivity. Wetland results were assessed using 33 waterbird species to detect non-linear effects of network change across a diversity of life cycle and habitat needs. Pervasive loss of semi-permanent wetlands was an indicator of systemic functional decline. Shortened hydroperiods caused by excessive drying transitioned semi-permanent wetlands to seasonal and temporary hydrologies—a process that in part counterbalanced concurrent seasonal and temporary wetland losses. Expansion of seasonal and temporary wetlands associated with closed-basin lakes offset wetland declines on other public and private lands, including wildlife refuges. Diving ducks, black terns, and grebes exhibited the most significant risk of habitat decline due to semi-permanent wetland loss that overlapped important migration, breeding, molting, and wintering periods. Shorebirds and dabbling ducks were beneficiaries of stable agricultural practices and top-down processes of functional wetland declines that operated collectively to maintain habitat needs. Outcomes from this work provide a novel perspective of wetland ecosystem change affecting waterbirds and their migration networks. Understanding the complexity of these relationships will become increasingly important as water scarcity continues to restructure the timing and availability of wetland resources.