Estimating the proportion of a beluga population using specific areas from connectivity patterns and abundance indices

Long-term evolution of the structure of the St. Lawrence (Canada) marine ecosystem in the context of climate change and anthropogenic activities: An isotopic perceptive

Documenting long-term changes in the trophic structure of food webs and how species respond to these changes is essential to forecast their vulnerability and resilience to environmental stressors. Over the past decades, the St. Lawrence marine ecosystem (Canada) has experienced major changes in its physical, chemical, and biological conditions from overfishing, acoustic and chemical pollution, climate change, and the increased abundance of some top predators. These changes have likely affected the trophodynamics of the ecosystem, and are suspected to have deleterious effects on endangered species of mammals and other components of the ecosystem, such as blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus), fin whales (B. physalus), and beluga (Delphinapterus leucas). This study examined the trophic structure of the St. Lawrence marine ecosystem, including the isotopic niche of various species, over two periods of contrasting pressures from anthropogenic and climatic stressors (1995-2003 vs. 2019-2021). Stable isotope ratios were measured in 1240 samples of 21 species of marine invertebrates, fishes, and mammals sampled during both periods. A significant change in the isotopic value and niche position between periods is observed in most of the sampled species. While the direction of change and effect size were not uniform among species, these changes confirmed that substantial modifications in community structure have occurred over time. Niche overlap decreased considerably among some of the pelagic and demersal fishes, and among whale species during the most recent period. Combined with a concomitant reduction in niche breadth in several species, these observations suggested that resource sharing was limited among these species. This study highlighted some degree of dietary plasticity in several species, and a long-term change in the trophic structure of the St. Lawrence marine ecosystem, with likely effects on diet composition and energetics of several populations, including endangered species.

Estimating pregnancy rate from blubber progesterone levels of a blindly biopsied beluga population poses methodological, analytical and statistical challenges

Beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada, have been declining since the early 2000s, suggesting recruitment issues as a result of low fecundity, abnormal abortion rates or poor calf or juvenile survival. Pregnancy is difficult to observe in cetaceans, making the ground truthing of pregnancy estimates in wild individuals challenging. Blubber progesterone concentrations were contrasted among 62 SLE beluga with a known reproductive state (i.e. pregnant, resting, parturient and lactating females), that were found dead in 1997 to 2019. The suitability of a threshold obtained from decaying carcasses to assess reproductive state and pregnancy rate of freshly-dead or free-ranging and blindly-sampled beluga was examined using three statistical approaches and two data sets (135 freshly harvested carcasses in Nunavik, and 65 biopsy-sampled SLE beluga). Progesterone concentrations in decaying carcasses were considerably higher in known-pregnant (mean ± sd: 365 ± 244 ng g-1 of tissue) than resting (3.1 ± 4.5 ng g-1 of tissue) or lactating (38.4 ± 100 ng g-1 of tissue) females. An approach based on statistical mixtures of distributions and a logistic regression were compared to the commonly-used, fixed threshold approach (here, 100 ng g-1) for discriminating pregnant from non-pregnant females. The error rate for classifying individuals of known reproductive status was the lowest for the fixed threshold and logistic regression approaches, but the mixture approach required limited a priori knowledge for clustering individuals of unknown pregnancy status. Mismatches in assignations occurred at lipid content < 10% of sample weight. Our results emphasize the importance of reporting lipid contents and progesterone concentrations in both units (ng g-1 of tissue and ng g-1 of lipid) when sample mass is low. By highlighting ways to circumvent potential biases in field sampling associated with capturability of different segments of a population, this study also enhances the usefulness of the technique for estimating pregnancy rate of free-ranging population.

Extracting spatial networks from capture-recapture data reveals individual site fidelity patterns within a marine mammal's spatial range

Estimating the impacts of anthropogenic disturbances requires an understanding of the habitat-use patterns of individuals within a population. This is especially the case when disturbances are localized within a population's spatial range, as variation in habitat use within a population can drastically alter the distribution of impacts.Here, we illustrate the potential for multilevel binomial models to generate spatial networks from capture-recapture data, a common data source used in wildlife studies to monitor population dynamics and habitat use. These spatial networks capture which regions of a population's spatial distribution share similar/dissimilar individual usage patterns, and can be especially useful for detecting structured habitat use within the population's spatial range.Using simulations and 18 years of capture-recapture data from St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE) beluga, we show that this approach can successfully estimate the magnitude of similarities/dissimilarities in individual usage patterns across sectors, and identify sectors that share similar individual usage patterns that differ from other sectors, that is, structured habitat use. In the case of SLE beluga, this method identified multiple clusters of individuals, each preferentially using restricted areas within their summer range of the SLE.Multilevel binomial models can be effective at estimating spatial structure in habitat use within wildlife populations sampled by capture-recapture of individuals, and can be especially useful when sampling effort is not evenly distributed. Our finding of a structured habitat use within the SLE beluga summer range has direct implications for estimating individual exposures to localized stressors, such as underwater noise from shipping or other activities.

Sharing the waters: Application of a marine spatial planning approach to conserve and restore the acoustic habitat of endangered beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) in and around the Saguenay-St. Lawrence Marine Park

Anthropogenic underwater noise degrades the quality of whale habitats, affecting vital functions which may compromise the recovery of species at risk exposed to chronic vessel-based activities. The endangered St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE) beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) lives downstream from industrial activities in a highly accessible coastal environment. Many approaches were deployed in the Saguenay-St. Lawrence Marine Park to address the issue of cohabitation between whales and vessels. Place-based conservation measures aimed at protecting and restoring the tranquility of key areas of SLE beluga critical habitat by managing vessel-based activities were implemented through a marine spatial planning approach. They involved protecting the quietness of the South Channel by avoiding rerouting shipping, establishing of a regulatory area closure in Baie Sainte-Marguerite and of a beluga conservation area without commercial whale-watching in the Upper SLE. Compliance monitoring show that these efforts are effective to enhance the protection and restoration of the acoustic habitat.

Agent-based modelling reveals a disproportionate exposure of females and calves to a local increase in shipping and associated noise in an endangered beluga population

Vessel underwater noise (VUN) is one of the main threats to the recovery of the endangered St. Lawrence Estuary Beluga population (SLEB). The 1% yearly population decline indicates that the cumulative threats are already beyond sustainable limits for the SLEB. However, a potential threefold increase in shipping traffic is expected within its critical habitat in the coming years resulting from proposed port-industrial projects in the Saguenay River. Current data indicate that SLEB typically use multiple sectors within their summer range, likely leading to differential VUN exposure among individuals. The degree of displacement and spatial mixing among habitats are not yet well understood but can be simulated under different assumptions about movement patterns at the individual and population levels. Here, we propose using an agent-based model (ABM) to explore the biases introduced when estimating exposure to stressors such as VUN, where individual-centric movement patterns and habitat use are derived from different spatial behaviour assumptions. Simulations of the ABM revealed that alternative behavioural assumptions for individual belugas can significantly alter the estimation of instantaneous and cumulative exposure of SLEB to VUN. Our simulations also predicted that with the projected traffic increase in the Saguenay River, the characteristics making it a quiet zone for SLEB within its critical habitat would be nullified. Whereas spending more time in the Saguenay than in the Estuary allows belugas to be exposed to less noise under the current traffic regime, this relationship is reversed under the increased traffic scenario. Considering the importance of the Saguenay for SLEB females and calves, our results support the need to understand its role as a possible acoustic refuge for this endangered population. This underlines the need to understand and describe individual and collective beluga behaviours using the best available data to conduct a thorough acoustic impact assessment concerning future increased traffic.