Role of carryover effects in conservation of wild Pacific salmon migrating regulated rivers

Effects of low temperature on growth and metabolism of larval green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris) across early ontogeny

Southern Distinct Population Segment (sDPS) green sturgeon spawn solely in one stretch of the Sacramento River in California. Management of this spawning habitat is complicated by cold water temperature requirements for the conservation of winter-run Chinook salmon. This study assessed whether low incubation and rearing temperatures resulted in carryover effects across embryo to early juvenile life stages on scaling relationships in growth and metabolism in northern DPS green sturgeon used as a proxy for sDPS green sturgeon. Fish were incubated and reared at 11 °C and 15 °C, with a subset experiencing a reciprocal temperature transfer post-hatch, to assess recovery from cold incubation or to simulate a cold-water dam release which would chill rearing larvae. Growth and metabolic rate of embryos and larvae were measured to 118 days post hatch. Reciprocal temperature transfers revealed a greater effect of low temperature exposure during larval rearing rather than during egg incubation. While 11 °C eggs hatched at a smaller length, log-transformed length-weight relationships showed that these differences in developmental trajectory dissipated as individuals achieved juvenile morphology. However, considerable size-at-age differences persisted between rearing temperatures, with 15 °C fish requiring 60 days post-hatch to achieve 1 g in mass, whereas 11 °C fish required 120 days to achieve 1 g, resulting in fish of the same age at the completion of the experiment with a ca. 37-fold difference in weight. Consequently, our study suggests that cold rearing temperatures have far more consequential downstream effects than cold embryo incubation temperatures. Growth delays from 11 °C rearing temperatures would greatly increase the period of vulnerability to predation in larval green sturgeon. The scaling relationship between log-transformed whole-body metabolism and mass exhibited a steeper slope and thus an increased oxygen requirement with size in 11 °C reared fish, potentially indicating an energetically unsustainable situation. Understanding how cold temperatures affect green sturgeon ontogeny is necessary to refine our larval recruitment estimations for this threatened species.

Return(s) on investment: Restoration spending in the Columbia River Basin and increased abundance of salmon and steelhead

The decline in salmon and steelhead populations in the Columbia River Basin has been well documented, as have the decades-long, $9 billion restoration spending efforts by federal and state agencies. These efforts are mainly tied to Endangered Species Act (ESA) mandates for recovery of wild, naturally-spawning threatened or endangered fish species. The impact of these efforts remains poorly understood; many observers, including the federal courts, have long been concerned by the lack of evidence of recovery. Most studies evaluating restoration efforts have examined individual projects for specific species, reaches, or life stages, which limits the ability to make broad inferences at the basin level. There is a need to ask: is there evidence of an overall increase in wild fish abundance associated with the totality of these recovery efforts? To that end, the current study estimates fixed-effects panel regression models of adult returns of four species. Results indicate that restoration spending combined with hatchery production are associated with substantial increases in returning adult fish. Evidence of benefits to wild fish alone, however, require indirect approaches given the commingling of restoration spending with spending on hatchery releases, the impacts of spending on hatchery fish survival, and the density dependence effects of hatchery releases. To accomplish this, the models' predicted adult returns (both hatchery and wild fish) attributed to both spending and hatchery releases are compared to independent estimates of returning hatchery fish based on hatchery survival estimates (smolt-to-adult ratios). The comparison finds the model-predicted levels of adult returns due to spending and hatchery releases do not exceed the survival-rate based estimates for hatcheries alone, so that we are unable to reject the hypothesis of no benefits to wild fish from the restoration spending.

An information theory-based approach to characterize drivers of upstream salmon migration

The migration timing of Pacific salmon in the Columbia River basin is subject to multiple influences related to climate, human water resource management, and lagged effects such as oceanic conditions. We apply an information theory-based approach to analyze drivers of adult Chinook salmon migration within the spring and fall spawning seasons and between years based on salmon counts at dams along the Columbia and Snake Rivers. Time-lagged mutual information and information decomposition measures, which characterize lagged and nonlinear dependencies as reductions in uncertainty, are used to detect interactions between salmon counts and lagged streamflows, air and water temperatures, precipitation, snowpack, climate indices and downstream salmon counts. At a daily timescale, these interdependencies reflect migration timing and show differences between fall and spring run salmon, while dependencies based on variables at an annual resolution reflect long-term predictability. We also highlight several types of joint dependencies where predictability of salmon counts depends on the knowledge of multiple lagged sources. This study illustrates how co-varying human and natural drivers could propagate to influence salmon migration timing or overall returns, and how nonlinear types of dependencies between variables enhance predictability of a target. This information-based framework is broadly applicable to assess driving factors in other types of complex water resources systems or species life cycles.