Spatial covariation of competing species in a fluctuating environment

The role of species interactions in shaping the geographic pattern of ungulate abundance across African savannah

Macroecologists traditionally emphasized the role of environmental variables for predicting species distribution and abundance at large scale. While biotic factors have been increasingly recognized as important at macroecological scales, producing valuable biotic variables remains challenging and rarely tested. Capitalizing on the wealth of population density estimates available for African savannah ungulates, here we modeled species average population density at 100 × 100 km as a function of both environmental variables and proxies of biotic interactions (competition and predation) and estimated their relative contribution. We fitted a linear mixed effect model on 1043 population density estimates for 63 species of ungulates using Bayesian inference and estimated the percentage of total variance explained by environmental, anthropogenic, and biotic interactions variables. Environmental and anthropogenic variables were the main drivers of ungulate population density, with NDVI, Distance to permanent water bodies and Human population density showing the highest contribution to the variance. Nonetheless, biotic interactions altogether contributed to a quarter of the variance explained, with predation and competition having a negative effect on species density. Despite the limitations of modelling biotic interactions in macroecological studies, proxies of biotic interactions can enhance our understanding of biological patterns at broad spatial scales, uncovering novel predictors as well as enhancing the predictive power of large-scale models.

Resource use differences of two coexisting chironomid species at localized scales

Competing species may show positive correlations in abundance through time and space if they rely on a shared resource. Such positive correlations might obscure resource partitioning that facilitates competitor coexistence. Here, we examine the potential for resource partitioning between two ecologically similar midge species (Diptera: Chironomidae) in Lake Mývatn, Iceland. Tanytarsus gracilentus and Chironomus islandicus show large, roughly synchronized population fluctuations, implying potential reliance on a shared fluctuating resource and thereby posing the question of how these species coexist at high larval abundances. We first considered spatial partitioning of larvae. Abundances of both species were positively correlated in space; thus, spatial partitioning across different sites in the lake did not appear to be strong. We then inferred differences in dietary resources with stable carbon isotopes. T. gracilentus larvae had significantly higher δ13C values than C. islandicus, suggesting interspecific differences in resource use. Differences in resource selectivity, tube-building behavior, and feeding styles may facilitate resource partitioning between these species. Relative to surface sediments, T. gracilentus had higher δ13C values, suggesting that they selectively graze on 13C-enriched resources such as productive algae from the surface of their tubes. In contrast, C. islandicus had lower δ13C values than surface sediments, suggesting reliance on 13C-depleted resources that may include detrital organic matter and associated microbes that larvae selectively consume from the sediment surface or within their burrow walls. Overall, our study illustrates that coexisting and ecologically similar species may show positive correlations in space and time while using different resources at fine spatial scales.

Ultra-low esfenvalerate exposure may disrupt interspecific competition

Field and mesocosm studies repeatedly show that higher tier processes reduce the predictive accuracy of toxicity evaluation and thus their value for pesticide risk assessment. Therefore, understanding the influence of ecological complexity on toxicant effects is crucial to improve realism of aquatic risk assessment. Here we investigate the influence of repeated exposure to ecologically realistic concentrations of esfenvalerate on the two similarly sensitive species Daphnia magna and Culex pipiens in a food limited and highly competitive environment. We show that significant perturbations in population development are only present at 100 ng/L (close to the EC50). In contrast, interspecific competition between species is already reduced at 0.1 ng/L (≤ 3 orders of magnitude below the acute lethal EC50). We conclude that extremely low, environmentally relevant concentrations can disrupt species interactions. This toxicant mediated alteration of competitive balances in ecological communities may be the underlying mechanism for shifts in species distribution at ultra-low pesticide concentrations. A realistic risk assessment should therefore consider these processes in order to predict potential pesticide effects on the structure of communities.

Effects of local density dependence and temperature on the spatial synchrony of marine fish populations

Disentangling empirically the many processes affecting spatial population synchrony is a challenge in population ecology. Two processes that could have major effects on the spatial synchrony of wild population dynamics are density dependence and variation in environmental conditions like temperature. Understanding these effects is crucial for predicting the effects of climate change on local and regional population dynamics. We quantified the direct contribution of local temperature and density dependence to spatial synchrony in the population dynamics of nine fish species inhabiting the Barents Sea. First, we estimated the degree to which the annual spatial autocorrelations in density are influenced by temperature. Second, we estimated and mapped the local effects of temperature and strength of density dependence on annual changes in density. Finally, we measured the relative effects of temperature and density dependence on the spatial synchrony in changes in density. Temperature influenced the annual spatial autocorrelation in density more in species with greater affinities to the benthos and to warmer waters. Temperature correlated positively with changes in density in the eastern Barents Sea for most species. Temperature had a weak synchronizing effect on density dynamics, while increasing strength of density dependence consistently desynchronised the dynamics. Quantifying the relative effects of different processes affecting population synchrony is important to better predict how population dynamics might change when environmental conditions change. Here, high degrees of spatial synchrony in the population dynamics remained unexplained by local temperature and density dependence, confirming the presence of additional synchronizing drivers, such as trophic interactions or harvesting.

Ecosystem size-induced environmental fluctuations affect the temporal dynamics of community assembly mechanisms

Understanding processes that determine community membership and abundance is important for many fields from theoretical community ecology to conservation. However, spatial community studies are often conducted only at a single timepoint despite the known influence of temporal variability on community assembly processes. Here we used a spatiotemporal study to determine how environmental fluctuation differences induced by mesocosm volumes (larger volumes were more stable) influence assembly processes of aquatic bacterial metacommunities along a press disturbance gradient. By combining path analysis and network approaches, we found mesocosm size categories had distinct relative influences of assembly process and environmental factors that determined spatiotemporal bacterial community composition, including dispersal and species sorting by conductivity. These processes depended on, but were not affected proportionately by, mesocosm size. Low fluctuation, large mesocosms primarily developed through the interplay of species sorting that became more important over time and transient priority effects as evidenced by more time-delayed associations. High fluctuation, small mesocosms had regular disruptions to species sorting and greater importance of ecological drift and dispersal limitation indicated by lower richness and higher taxa replacement. Together, these results emphasize that environmental fluctuations influence ecosystems over time and its impacts are modified by biotic properties intrinsic to ecosystem size.

Disturbance and nutrients synchronise kelp forests across scales through interacting Moran effects

Spatial synchrony is a ubiquitous and important feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of this phenomenon are not well understood. In particular, it is largely unknown how multiple environmental drivers interact to determine synchrony via Moran effects, and how these impacts vary across spatial and temporal scales. Using new wavelet statistical techniques, we characterised synchrony in populations of giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a widely distributed marine foundation species, and related synchrony to variation in oceanographic conditions across 33 years (1987-2019) and >900 km of coastline in California, USA. We discovered that disturbance (storm-driven waves) and resources (seawater nutrients)-underpinned by climatic variability-act individually and interactively to produce synchrony in giant kelp across geography and timescales. Our findings demonstrate that understanding and predicting synchrony, and thus the regional stability of populations, relies on resolving the synergistic and antagonistic Moran effects of multiple environmental drivers acting on different timescales.

Dynamics induced by environmental stochasticity in a phytoplankton-zooplankton system with toxic phytoplankton

Environmental stochasticity and toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP) are the key factors that affect the aquatic ecosystems. To investigate the effects of environmental stochasticity and TPP on the dynamics of plankton populations, a stochastic phytoplankton-zooplankton system with two TPP is studied theoretically and numerically in this paper. Theoretically, we first prove that the system possesses a unique and global positive solution with positive initial values, and then derive some sufficient conditions guaranteeing the extinction and persistence in the mean of the system. Significantly, it is shown that the system has a stationary distribution when toxin liberation rate reaches some a critical value. Additionally, numerical analysis shows that the white noise can affect the survival of plankton populations directly. Furthermore, it has been observed that the increasing one toxin liberation rate can increase the survival chance of phytoplankton and reduce the biomass of zooplankton, but the combined effects of two liberation rates on the changes in plankton populations are stronger than that of controlling any one of the two TPP.

General statistical scaling laws for stability in ecological systems

Ecological stability refers to a family of concepts used to describe how systems of interacting species vary through time and respond to disturbances. Because observed ecological stability depends on sampling scales and environmental context, it is notoriously difficult to compare measurements across sites and systems. Here, we apply stochastic dynamical systems theory to derive general statistical scaling relationships across time, space, and ecological level of organisation for three fundamental stability aspects: resilience, resistance, and invariance. These relationships can be calibrated using random or representative samples measured at individual scales, and projected to predict average stability at other scales across a wide range of contexts. Moreover deviations between observed vs. extrapolated scaling relationships can reveal information about unobserved heterogeneity across time, space, or species. We anticipate that these methods will be useful for cross-study synthesis of stability data, extrapolating measurements to unobserved scales, and identifying underlying causes and consequences of heterogeneity.

Spatial synchrony is related to environmental change in Finnish moth communities

Spatially distinct pairs of sites may have similarly fluctuating population dynamics across large geographical distances, a phenomenon called spatial synchrony. However, species rarely exist in isolation, but rather as members of interactive communities, linked with other communities through dispersal (i.e. a metacommunity). Using data on Finnish moth communities sampled across 65 sites for 20 years, we examine the complex synchronous/anti-synchronous relationships among sites using the geography of synchrony framework. We relate site-level synchrony to mean and temporal variation in climatic data, finding that colder and drier sites-and those with the most drastic temperature increases-are important for spatial synchrony. This suggests that faster-warming sites contribute most strongly to site-level estimates of synchrony, highlighting the role of a changing climate to spatial synchrony. Considering the spatial variability in climate change rates is therefore important to understand metacommunity dynamics and identify habitats which contribute most strongly to spatial synchrony.