The seasonal energetic landscape of an apex marine carnivore, the polar bear

How to treat mixed behavior segments in supervised machine learning of behavioural modes from inertial measurement data

The application of supervised machine learning methods to identify behavioural modes from inertial measurements of bio-loggers has become a standard tool in behavioural ecology. Several design choices can affect the accuracy of identifying the behavioural modes. One such choice is the inclusion or exclusion of segments consisting of more than a single behaviour (mixed segments) in the machine learning model training data. Currently, the common practice is to ignore such segments during model training. In this paper we tested the hypothesis that including mixed segments in model training will improve accuracy, as the model would perform better in identifying them in the test data. We test this hypothesis using a series of data simulations on four datasets of accelerometer data coupled with behaviour observations, obtained from four study species (Damaraland mole-rats, meerkats, olive baboons, polar bears). Results show that when a substantial proportion of the test data are mixed behaviour segments (above ~ 10%), including mixed segments in machine learning model training improves the accuracy of classification. These results were consistent across the four study species, and robust to changes in segment length, sample size, and degree of mixture within the mixed segments. However, we also find that in some cases (particularly in baboons) models trained with mixed segments show reduced accuracy in classifying test data containing only single behaviour (pure) segments, compared to models trained without mixed segments. Based on these results, we recommend that when the classification model is expected to deal with a substantial proportion of mixed behaviour segments (> 10%), it is beneficial to include them in model training, otherwise, it is unnecessary but also not harmful. The exception is when there is a basis to assume that the training data contains a higher rate of mixed segments than the actual (unobserved) data to be classified-such a situation may occur particularly when training data are collected in captivity and used to classify data from the wild. In this case, excess inclusion of mixed segments in training data should probably be avoided.

Polar bear energetic and behavioral strategies on land with implications for surviving the ice-free period

Declining Arctic sea ice is increasing polar bear land use. Polar bears on land are thought to minimize activity to conserve energy. Here, we measure the daily energy expenditure (DEE), diet, behavior, movement, and body composition changes of 20 different polar bears on land over 19-23 days from August to September (2019-2022) in Manitoba, Canada. Polar bears on land exhibited a 5.2-fold range in DEE and 19-fold range in activity, from hibernation-like DEEs to levels approaching active bears on the sea ice, including three individuals that made energetically demanding swims totaling 54-175 km. Bears consumed berries, vegetation, birds, bones, antlers, seal, and beluga. Beyond compensating for elevated DEE, there was little benefit from terrestrial foraging toward prolonging the predicted time to starvation, as 19 of 20 bears lost mass (0.4-1.7 kg•day-1). Although polar bears on land exhibit remarkable behavioral plasticity, our findings reinforce the risk of starvation, particularly in subadults, with forecasted increases in the onshore period.

Serum Virome of Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus) during a period of rapid climate change

Climate change affects the behavior, physiology and life history of many Arctic wildlife species. It can also influence the distribution and ecology of infectious agents. The southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) has experienced dramatic behavioral changes due to retreating sea ice and other climate-related factors, but the effects of these changes on physiology and infection remain poorly understood. Using serum from polar bears sampled between 2004 and 2015 and metagenomic DNA sequencing, we identified 48 viruses, all of the family Anelloviridae. Anelloviruses are small, ubiquitous infectious agents with circular single-stranded DNA genomes that are not known to cause disease but, in humans, covary in diversity and load with immunological compromise. We therefore examined the usefulness of anelloviruses as biomarkers of polar bear physiological stress related to climate and habitat use. Polar bear anelloviruses sorted into two distinct clades on a phylogenetic tree, both of which also contained anelloviruses of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), another ursid. Neither anellovirus diversity nor load were associated with any demographic variables, behavioral factors or direct physiological measures. However, pairwise genetic distances between anelloviruses were positively correlated with pairwise differences in sampling date, suggesting that the polar bear "anellome" is evolving over time. These findings suggest that anelloviruses are not a sensitive indicator of polar physiological stress, but they do provide a baseline for evaluating future changes to polar bear viromes.

Diet energy density estimated from isotopes in predator hair associated with survival, habitat, and population dynamics

Sea ice loss is fundamentally altering the Arctic marine environment. Yet there is a paucity of data on the adaptability of food webs to ecosystem change, including predator-prey interactions. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are an important subsistence resource for Indigenous people and an apex predator that relies entirely on the under-ice food web to meet its energy needs. In this study, we assessed whether polar bears maintained dietary energy density by prey switching in response to spatiotemporal variation in prey availability. We compared the macronutrient composition of diets inferred from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes in polar bear guard hair (primarily representing summer/fall diet) during periods when bears had low and high survival (2004-2016), between bears that summered on land versus pack ice, and between bears occupying different regions of the Alaskan and Canadian Beaufort Sea. Polar bears consumed diets with lower energy density during periods of low survival, suggesting that concurrent increased dietary proportions of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) did not offset reduced proportions of ringed seals (Pusa hispida). Diets with the lowest energy density and proportions from ringed seal blubber were consumed by bears in the western Beaufort Sea (Alaska) during a period when polar bear abundance declined. Intake required to meet energy requirements of an average free-ranging adult female polar bear was 2.1 kg/day on diets consumed during years with high survival but rose to 3.0 kg/day when survival was low. Although bears that summered onshore in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea had higher-fat diets than bears that summered on the pack ice, access to the remains of subsistence-harvested bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) contributed little to improving diet energy density. Because most bears in this region remain with the sea ice year round, prey switching and consumption of whale carcasses onshore appear insufficient to augment diets when availability of their primary prey, ringed seals, is reduced. Our results show that a strong predator-prey relationship between polar bears and ringed seals continues in the Beaufort Sea. The method of estimating dietary blubber using predator hair, demonstrated here, provides a new metric to monitor predator-prey relationships that affect individual health and population demographics.

Biologging as an important tool to uncover behaviors of cryptic species: an analysis of giant armadillos (Priodontes maximus)

Advances in biologging have increased the understanding of how animals interact with their environment, especially for cryptic species. For example, giant armadillos (Priodontes maximus) are the largest extant species of armadillo but are rarely encountered due to their fossorial and nocturnal behavior. Through the analysis of speed, turning angles, and accelerometer activity counts, we estimated behavioral states, characterized activity budgets, and investigated the state-habitat associations exhibited by individuals monitored with GPS telemetry in the Brazilian Pantanal from 2019 to 2020. This methodology is proposed as a useful framework for the identification of priority habitat. Using the non-parametric Bayesian mixture model for movement (M3), we estimated four latent behavioral states that were named 'vigilance-excavation', 'local search', 'exploratory', and 'transit'. These states appeared to correspond with behavior near burrows or termite mounds, foraging, ranging, and rapid movements, respectively. The first and last hours of activity presented relatively high proportions of the vigilance-excavation state, while most of the activity period was dominated by local search and exploratory states. The vigilance-excavation state occurred more frequently in regions between forest and closed savannas, whereas local search was more likely in high proportions of closed savanna. Exploratory behavior probability increased in areas with high proportions of both forest and closed savanna. Our results establish a baseline for behavioral complexity, activity budgets, and habitat associations in a relatively pristine environment that can be used for future work to investigate anthropogenic impacts on giant armadillo behavior and fitness. The integration of accelerometer and GPS-derived movement data through our mixture model has the potential to become a powerful methodological approach for the conservation of other cryptic species.

Drivers of polar bear behavior and the possible effects of prey availability on foraging strategy

BACKGROUND

Change in behavior is one of the earliest responses to variation in habitat suitability. It is therefore important to understand the conditions that promote different behaviors, particularly in areas undergoing environmental change. Animal movement is tightly linked to behavior and remote tracking can be used to study ethology when direct observation is not possible.

METHODS

We used movement data from 14 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in Hudson Bay, Canada, during the foraging season (January-June), when bears inhabit the sea ice. We developed an error-tolerant method to correct for sea ice drift in tracking data. Next, we used hidden Markov models with movement and orientation relative to wind to study three behaviors (stationary, area-restricted search, and olfactory search) and examine effects of 11 covariates on behavior.

RESULTS

Polar bears spent approximately 47% of their time in the stationary drift state, 29% in olfactory search, and 24% in area-restricted search. High energy behaviors occurred later in the day (around 20:00) compared to other populations. Second, olfactory search increased as the season progressed, which may reflect a shift in foraging strategy from still-hunting to active search linked to a shift in seal availability (i.e., increase in haul-outs from winter to the spring pupping and molting seasons). Last, we found spatial patterns of distribution linked to season, ice concentration, and bear age that may be tied to habitat quality and competitive exclusion.

CONCLUSIONS

Our observations were generally consistent with predictions of the marginal value theorem, and differences between our findings and other populations could be explained by regional or temporal variation in resource availability. Our novel movement analyses and finding can help identify periods, regions, and conditions of critical habitat.

Significance of autumn and winter food consumption for reproduction by Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears, Ursus maritimus

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea experience long annual periods when preferred seal prey are scarce or are unavailable. Consumption of bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) carcasses from native Alaskan subsistence hunting is increasingly common for onshore polar bears, yet the energetic consequences of this consumption remain unclear. We use data on bears captured repeatedly over periods that encompassed autumn and winter, combined with calculations, to show that adult female bears likely consume an average of at least 4 seal equivalents during both autumn and winter periods and that considerable variation in energy intake exists across individual bears. We further show that subsistence-caught whale carcasses provide an upper threshold of > 4000 seal equivalents, which could potentially meet mean consumption needs of ~ 80% of the southern Beaufort Sea bear subpopulation during autumn and winter periods. Finally, we modify an existing model to show that observed mass changes over autumn and winter could substantially alter spring foraging habitat choice by females with cubs and the chance that a female with reduced energy reserves would abort a pregnancy or abandon cubs in favor of increasing her own survival; these behaviors could potentially influence population vital rates. Our study highlights the importance of mass dynamics over the autumn and winter months, points to the need for additional data on foraging and energetics over this period, and indicates that the recent declines in polar bear body condition in some subpopulations could have complex effects on reproduction.

Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska's Beaufort Sea, 2001-2016

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice-free ecosystem. As ice-adapted apex predators, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food-web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark-recapture observations and satellite-telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.

Physiological consequences of Arctic sea ice loss on large marine carnivores: unique responses by polar bears and narwhals

Rapid environmental changes in the Arctic are threatening the survival of marine species that rely on the predictable presence of the sea ice. Two Arctic marine mammal specialists, the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) and narwhal (Monodon monoceros), appear especially vulnerable to the speed and capriciousness of sea ice deterioration as a consequence of their unique hunting behaviors and diet, as well as their physiological adaptations for slow-aerobic exercise. These intrinsic characteristics limit the ability of these species to respond to extrinsic threats associated with environmental change and increased industrial activity in a warming Arctic. In assessing how sea ice loss may differentially affect polar bears that hunt on the ice surface and narwhals that hunt at extreme depths below, we found that major ice loss translated into elevated locomotor costs that range from 3- to 4-fold greater than expected for both species. For polar bears this instigates an energy imbalance from the combined effects of reduced caloric intake and increased energy expenditure. For narwhals, high locomotor costs during diving increase the risk of ice entrapment due to the unreliability of breathing holes. These species-specific physiological constraints and extreme reliance on the polar sea ice conspire to make these two marine mammal specialists sentinels of climate change within the Arctic marine ecosystem that may foreshadow rapid changes to the marine ecosystem.