California Serogroup Viruses in a Changing Canadian Arctic: A Review

The Arctic is warming at four times the global rate, changing the diversity, activity and distribution of vectors and associated pathogens. While the Arctic is not often considered a hotbed of vector-borne diseases, Jamestown Canyon virus (JCV) and Snowshoe Hare virus (SSHV) are mosquito-borne zoonotic viruses of the California serogroup endemic to the Canadian North. The viruses are maintained by transovarial transmission in vectors and circulate among vertebrate hosts, both of which are not well characterized in Arctic regions. While most human infections are subclinical or mild, serious cases occur, and both JCV and SSHV have recently been identified as leading causes of arbovirus-associated neurological diseases in North America. Consequently, both viruses are currently recognised as neglected and emerging viruses of public health concern. This review aims to summarise previous findings in the region regarding the enzootic transmission cycle of both viruses. We identify key gaps and approaches needed to critically evaluate, detect, and model the effects of climate change on these uniquely northern viruses. Based on limited data, we predict that (1) these northern adapted viruses will increase their range northwards, but not lose range at their southern limits, (2) undergo more rapid amplification and amplified transmission in endemic regions for longer vector-biting seasons, (3) take advantage of northward shifts of hosts and vectors, and (4) increase bite rates following an increase in the availability of breeding sites, along with phenological synchrony between the reproduction cycle of theorized reservoirs (such as caribou calving) and mosquito emergence.

Biting insects in a rapidly changing Arctic

Biting insects have a long-standing reputation for being an extreme presence in the Arctic, but it is unclear how they are responding to the rapid environmental changes currently taking place in the region. We review recent advances in our understanding of climate change responses by several key groups of biting insects, including mosquitoes, blackflies, and warble/botflies, and we highlight the significant knowledge gaps on this topic. We also discuss how changes in biting insect populations could impact humans and wildlife, including disease transmission and the disruption of culturally and economically important activities. Future work should integrate scientific with local and traditional ecological knowledge to better understand global change responses by biting insects in the Arctic and the associated consequences for the environmental security of Arctic communities.

Quantifying the nature and strength of intraspecific density dependence in Arctic mosquitoes

Processes that change with density are inherent in all populations, yet quantifying density dependence with empirical data remains a challenge. This is especially true for animals recruiting in patchy landscapes because heterogeneity in habitat quality in combination with habitat choice can obscure patterns expected from density dependence. Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) typically experience strong density dependence when larvae compete for food, however, effects vary across species and contexts. If populations experience intense intraspecific density-dependent mortality then overcompensation can occur, where the number of survivors declines at high densities producing complex endogenous dynamics. To seek generalizations about density dependence in a widespread species of Arctic mosquito, Aedes nigripes, we combined a laboratory experiment, field observations, and modeling approaches. We evaluated alternative formulations of discrete population models and compared best-performing models from our lab study to larval densities from ponds in western Greenland. Survivorship curves from the lab were the best fit by a Hassell model with compensating density dependence (equivalent to a Beverton-Holt model) where peak recruitment ranged from 8 to 80 mosquitoes per liter depending on resource supply. In contrast, our field data did not show a signal of strong density dependence, suggesting that other processes such as predation may lower realized densities in nature, and that expected patterns may be obscured because larval abundance covaries with resources (cryptic density dependence). Our study emphasizes the importance of covariation between the environment, habitat choice, and density dependence in understanding population dynamics across landscapes, and demonstrates the value of pairing lab and field studies.

Persistence and size of seasonal populations on a consumer-resource relationship depends on the allocation strategy toward life-history functions

The long-term ecological dynamics of a population inhabiting a seasonal environment is analyzed using a semi-discrete or impulsive system to represent the consumer-resource interaction. The resource corresponds to an incoming energy flow for consumers that is allocated to reproduction as well as to maintenance in each non-reproductive season. The energy invested in these life-history functions is used in reproductive events, determining the size of the offspring in each reproductive season. Two long-term dynamic patterns are found, resulting in either the persistence or the extinction of the population of consumers. In addition, our model indicates that only one energy allocation strategy provides an optimal combination between individual consumption and long-term population size. The current study contributes to the understanding of how the individual-level and the population-level are interrelated, exhibiting the importance of incorporating phenotypic traits in population dynamics.