Introducing zoid: A mixture model and R package for modeling proportional data with zeros and ones in ecology

Invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas) predation in a Washington State estuary revealed with DNA metabarcoding

Predation by invasive species can threaten local ecosystems and economies. The European green crab (Carcinus maenas), one of the most widespread marine invasive species, is an effective predator associated with clam and crab population declines outside of its native range. In the U.S. Pacific Northwest, green crab has recently increased in abundance and expanded its distribution, generating concern for estuarine ecosystems and associated aquaculture production. However, regionally-specific information on the trophic impacts of invasive green crab is very limited. We compared the stomach contents of green crabs collected on clam aquaculture beds versus intertidal sloughs in Willapa Bay, Washington, to provide the first in-depth description of European green crab diet at a particularly crucial time for regional management. We first identified putative prey items using DNA metabarcoding of stomach content samples. We compared diet composition across sites using prey presence/absence and an index of species-specific relative abundance. For eight prey species, we also calibrated metabarcoding data to quantitatively compare DNA abundance between prey taxa, and to describe an 'average' green crab diet at an intertidal slough versus a clam aquaculture bed. From the stomach contents of 61 green crabs, we identified 54 unique taxa belonging to nine phyla. The stomach contents of crabs collected from clam aquaculture beds were significantly different from the stomach contents of crabs collected at intertidal sloughs. Across all sites, arthropods were the most frequently detected prey, with the native hairy shore crab (Hemigrapsus oregonensis) the single most common prey item. Of the eight species calibrated with a quantitative model, two ecologically-important native species-the sand shrimp (Crangon franciscorum) and the Pacific staghorn sculpin (Leptocottus armatus)-had the highest average DNA abundance when detected in a stomach content sample. In addition to providing timely information on green crab diet, our research demonstrates the novel application of a recently developed model for more quantitative DNA metabarcoding. This represents another step in the ongoing evolution of DNA-based diet analysis towards producing the quantitative data necessary for modeling invasive species impacts.

Modeling ocean distributions and abundances of natural- and hatchery-origin Chinook salmon stocks with integrated genetic and tagging data

Background

Considerable resources are spent to track fish movement in marine environments, often with the intent of estimating behavior, distribution, and abundance. Resulting data from these monitoring efforts, including tagging studies and genetic sampling, often can be siloed. For Pacific salmon in the Northeast Pacific Ocean, predominant data sources for fish monitoring are coded wire tags (CWTs) and genetic stock identification (GSI). Despite their complementary strengths and weaknesses in coverage and information content, the two data streams rarely have been integrated to inform Pacific salmon biology and management. Joint, or integrated, models can combine and contextualize multiple data sources in a single statistical framework to produce more robust estimates of fish populations.

Methods

We introduce and fit a comprehensive joint model that integrates data from CWT recoveries and GSI sampling to inform the marine life history of Chinook salmon stocks at spatial and temporal scales relevant to ongoing fisheries management efforts. In a departure from similar models based primarily on CWT recoveries, modeled stocks in the new framework encompass both hatchery- and natural-origin fish. We specifically model the spatial distribution and marine abundance of four distinct stocks with spawning locations in California and southern Oregon, one of which is listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

Results

Using the joint model, we generated the most comprehensive estimates of marine distribution to date for all modeled Chinook salmon stocks, including historically data poor and low abundance stocks. Estimated marine distributions from the joint model were broadly similar to estimates from a simpler, CWT-only model but did suggest some differences in distribution in select seasons. Model output also included novel stock-, year-, and season-specific estimates of marine abundance. We observed and partially addressed several challenges in model convergence with the use of supplemental data sources and model constraints; similar difficulties are not unexpected with integrated modeling. We identify several options for improved data collection that could address issues in convergence and increase confidence in model estimates of abundance. We expect these model advances and results provide management-relevant biological insights, with the potential to inform future mixed-stock fisheries management efforts, as well as a foundation for more expansive and comprehensive analyses to follow.