Risk factors and prediction models for incident heart failure with reduced and preserved ejection fraction

Adiposity, fat-free mass and incident heart failure in 500 000 individuals

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The independent role of body fat distribution and fat-free mass in heart failure (HF) risk is unclear. We investigated the role of different body composition compartments in risk of HF.

METHODS

Present analyses include 428 087 participants (mean age 55.9 years, 44% male) from the UK Biobank. Associations of long-term average levels of body composition measures with incident HF were determined using adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 13.8 years, there were 10 455 first-ever incident HF events. Overall, HF risk was more strongly associated with central adiposity (waist circumference (WC) adjusted for body mass index (BMI); HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.45) than general adiposity (BMI adjusted for WC; HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.27). Although dual X-ray absorptiometry-derived body fat remained positively related to HF after adjustment for fat-free mass (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.59), the association of fat-free mass with HF was substantially attenuated by fat mass (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.26) while visceral fat (VAT) remained associated with HF independent of subcutaneous fat (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.33). In analyses of HF subtypes, HF with preserved ejection fraction was independently associated with all fat measures (eg, VAT: HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.35; body fat: HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.57) while HF with reduced ejection fraction was not independently associated with fat measures (eg, VAT: HR 1.29, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.68; body fat: HR 1.29, 95% CI 0.80 to 2.07).

CONCLUSIONS

This large-scale study shows that excess adiposity and fat mass are associated with higher HF risk while the association of fat-free mass with HF could be explained largely by its correlation with fat mass. The study also describes the independent relevance of body fat distribution to HF subtypes, suggesting different mechanisms may be driving their aetiopathogenesis.

HFpEF and sex: understanding the role of sex differences

Heart failure is a complex clinical syndrome with many etiological factors and complex pathophysiology affecting millions worldwide. Males and females can have distinct clinical presentation and prognosis, and there is an emerging understanding of the factors that highlight the similarities and differences to synthesize and present available data for sex-specific differences in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). While the majority of data demonstrate more similarities than differences between females and males in terms of heart failure, there are key differences. Data showed that females have a higher risk of developing HFpEF, but a lower risk of mortality and hospitalization. This can be conditioned by different profiles of comorbidities, postmenopausal changes in sex hormone levels, higher levels of inflammation and chronic microvascular dysfunction in females. These factors, combined with different left ventricular dimensions and function, which are more pronounced with age, lead to a higher prevalence of LV diastolic dysfunction at rest and exercise. As a result, females have lower exercise capacity and quality of life when compared to males. Females also have different activities of systems responsible for drug transformation, leading to different efficacy of drugs as well as higher risk of adverse drug reactions. These data prove the necessity for creating sex-specific risk stratification scales and treatment plans.

Prediction models for heart failure in the community: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

Multivariable prediction models can be used to estimate risk of incident heart failure (HF) in the general population. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to determine the performance of models.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From inception to 3 November 2022 MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched for studies of multivariable models derived, validated and/or augmented for HF prediction in community-based cohorts. Discrimination measures for models with c-statistic data from ≥3 cohorts were pooled by Bayesian meta-analysis, with heterogeneity assessed through a 95% prediction interval (PI). Risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST. We included 36 studies with 59 prediction models. In meta-analysis, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) risk score (summary c-statistic 0.802, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.707-0.883), GRaph-based Attention Model (GRAM; 0.791, 95% CI 0.677-0.885), Pooled Cohort equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) white men model (0.820, 95% CI 0.792-0.843), PCP-HF white women model (0.852, 95% CI 0.804-0.895), and REverse Time AttentIoN model (RETAIN; 0.839, 95% CI 0.748-0.916) had a statistically significant 95% PI and excellent discrimination performance. The ARIC risk score and PCP-HF models had significant summary discrimination among cohorts with a uniform prediction window. 77% of model results were at high risk of bias, certainty of evidence was low, and no model had a clinical impact study.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediction models for estimating risk of incident HF in the community demonstrate excellent discrimination performance. Their usefulness remains uncertain due to high risk of bias, low certainty of evidence, and absence of clinical effectiveness research.

Patient phenotype profiling in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction to guide therapeutic decision making. A scientific statement of the Heart Failure Association, the European Heart Rhythm Association of the European Society of Cardiology, and the European Society of Hypertension

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) represents a highly heterogeneous clinical syndrome affected in its development and progression by many comorbidities. The left ventricular diastolic dysfunction may be a manifestation of various combinations of cardiovascular, metabolic, pulmonary, renal, and geriatric conditions. Thus, in addition to treatment with sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors in all patients, the most effective method of improving clinical outcomes may be therapy tailored to each patient's clinical profile. To better outline a phenotype-based approach for the treatment of HFpEF, in this joint position paper, the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology, the European Heart Rhythm Association and the European Hypertension Society, have developed an algorithm to identify the most common HFpEF phenotypes and identify the evidence-based treatment strategy for each, while taking into account the complexities of multiple comorbidities and polypharmacy.

Functional and Metabolic Imaging in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction: Promises, Challenges, and Clinical Utility

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is recognised as an increasingly prevalent, morbid and burdensome condition with a poor outlook. Recent advances in both the understanding of HFpEF and the technological ability to image cardiac function and metabolism in humans have simultaneously shone a light on the molecular basis of this complex condition of diastolic dysfunction, and the inflammatory and metabolic changes that are associated with it, typically in the context of a complex patient. This review both makes the case for an integrated assessment of the condition, and highlights that metabolic alteration may be a measurable outcome for novel targeted forms of medical therapy. It furthermore highlights how recent technological advancements and advanced medical imaging techniques have enabled the characterisation of the metabolism and function of HFpEF within patients, at rest and during exercise.

Genetic architecture of heart failure with preserved versus reduced ejection fraction

Pharmacologic clinical trials for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction have been largely unsuccessful as compared to those for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Whether differences in the genetic underpinnings of these major heart failure subtypes may provide insights into the disparate outcomes of clinical trials remains unknown. We utilize a large, uniformly phenotyped, single cohort of heart failure sub-classified into heart failure with reduced and with preserved ejection fractions based on current clinical definitions, to conduct detailed genetic analyses of the two heart failure sub-types. We find different genetic architectures and distinct genetic association profiles between heart failure with reduced and with preserved ejection fraction suggesting differences in underlying pathobiology. The modest genetic discovery for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (one locus) compared to heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (13 loci) despite comparable sample sizes indicates that clinically defined heart failure with preserved ejection fraction likely represents the amalgamation of several, distinct pathobiological entities. Development of consensus sub-phenotyping of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is paramount to better dissect the underlying genetic signals and contributors to this highly prevalent condition.

Novel biomarkers of inflammation in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: analysis from a large prospective cohort study

Background

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is a syndrome with a heterogeneous cluster of causes, including non-resolving inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and multi-organ defects. The present study’s objective was to identify novel predictors of HFpEF.

Methods

The study analyzed the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) to assess the association of specific markers of inflammation with new onset of HFpEF (interleukin-2 [IL-2], matrix metalloproteinase 3 [MMP3], large low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], and medium high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C]). The study included men and women 45 to 84 years of age without cardiovascular disease at baseline. The primary outcome was the multivariate association of the hypothesized markers of inflammation with new-onset of HFpEF versus participants without new-onset heart failure. Participants with missing data were excluded.

Results

The present analysis included 6814 participants, 53% female, with a mean age of 62 years. Among the entire cohort, HFpEF was diagnosed in 151 (2.2%) participants and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) was diagnosed in 146 (2.1%) participants. Participants were followed for the outcome of heart failure for a median 13.9 years. Baseline IL-2 was available for 2861 participants. The multivariate analysis included 2792 participants. Of these, 2668 did not develop heart failure, 62 developed HFpEF, 47 developed HFrEF, and 15 developed unclassified heart failure. In the multivariate regression model, IL-2 was associated with new-onset HFpEF (OR, 1.00058; 95% confidence interval, 1.00014 to 1.00102, p = 0.009) but not new-onset HFrEF. In multivariate analysis, MMP3, large LDL-C, and medium HDL-C were not associated with HFpEF or HFrEF.

Conclusion

These findings portend IL-2 as an important component of suboptimal inflammation in the pathogenesis of HFpEF.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-022-02656-z.