Identifying patients at increased risk for poor outcomes from heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: the PROMPT-HF risk model

Prognostic models for patients suffering a heart failure with a preserved ejection fraction: a systematic review

The purpose of this study was to systematically review the development, performance, and applicability of prognostic models developed for predicting poor events in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Databases including Embase, PubMed, Web of Science Core Collection, the Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wan Fang, Wei Pu, and China Biological Medicine were queried from their respective dates of inception to 1 June 2023, to examine multivariate models for prognostic prediction in HFpEF. Both forward and backward citations of all studies were included in our analysis. Two researchers individually used the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) checklist to extract data and assess the quality of the models using the Predictive Mode Bias Risk Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Among the 6897 studies screened, 16 studies derived and/or validated a total of 39 prognostic models. The sample size ranges for model development, internal validation, and external validation are 119 to 5988, 152 to 1000, and 30 to 5957, respectively. The most frequently employed modelling technique was Cox proportional hazards regression. Six studies (37.50%) conducted internal validation of models; bootstrap and k-fold cross-validation were the commonly used methods for internal validation of models. Ten of these models (25.64%) were validated externally, with reported the c-statistic in the external validation set ranging from 0.70 to 0.96, while the remaining models await external validation. The MEDIA echo score and I-PRESERVE-sudden cardiac death prediction mode have been externally validated using multiple cohorts, and the results consistently show good predictive performance. The most frequently used predictors identified among the models were age, n-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, ejection fraction, albumin, and hospital stay in the last 5 months owing to heart failure. All study predictor domains and outcome domains were at low risk of bias, high or unclear risk of bias of all prognostic models due to underreporting in the area of analysis. All studies did not evaluate the clinical utility of the prognostic models. Predictive models for predicting prognostic outcomes in patients with HFpEF showed good discriminatory ability but their utility and generalization remain uncertain due to the risk of bias, differences in predictors between models, and the lack of clinical application studies. Future studies should improve the methodological quality of model development and conduct external validation of models.

Dynamic Trajectory of a Patient-Reported Outcome and Its Associated Factors for Patients with Chronic Heart Failure: A Growth Mixture Model Approach

PURPOSE

This study aimed to identify subgroups of chronic heart failure (CHF) patients with distinct trajectories of quality of life (QOL) and to identify baseline characteristics associated with the trajectories.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Two-year, prospective, cohort study including 315 patients with CHF was conducted from July 2017. Information on QOL assessed by CHF-patient-reported outcomes measure (CHF-PROM) was collected at baseline, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Demographic and clinical variables were recorded at baseline. Growth mixture model was used to identify distinct trajectories of CHF-PROM and its physical, psychological, social, and therapeutic domains. Single factor analysis was employed to assess the factors associated with development of CHF-PROM over time.

RESULTS

Two classes of overall score of CHF-PROM were identified: poorer (14.0%) and better (86.0%). Poorer class tended to be aged, have low diastolic blood pressure, have concomitant atrial fibrillation, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cancers, and central nervous system diseases, and used nitrates. Three classes of physical scores were identified: unstable-poorer (5.2%), stable-poorer (29.4%) and better (65.4%). Age, NYHA grade, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, combined with cancers and central nervous system diseases were related to the grouping. Poorer (8.6%) and better (91.4%) classes of psychological scores were identified. Poorer class tended to be female and had concomitant atrial fibrillation. Degenerate class (34.6%) and meliorate class (65.4%) of therapeutic scores were identified. Degenerate class tended to have concomitant chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and use less angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors.

CONCLUSION

We identified different classes with distinct trajectories of QOL that may help proper evaluate QOL and further improve its status for patients CHF.