Benchmark dose (BMD) modeling: current practice, issues, and challenges

Benchmark dose (BMD) modeling is now the state of the science for determining the point of departure for risk assessment. Key advantages include the fact that the modeling takes account of all of the data for a particular effect from a particular experiment, increased consistency, and better accounting for statistical uncertainties. Despite these strong advantages, disagreements remain as to several specific aspects of the modeling, including differences in the recommendations of the US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Differences exist in the choice of the benchmark response (BMR) for continuous data, the use of unrestricted models, and the mathematical models used; these can lead to differences in the final BMDL. It is important to take confidence in the model into account in choosing the BMDL, rather than simply choosing the lowest value. The field is moving in the direction of model averaging, which will avoid many of the challenges of choosing a single best model when the underlying biology does not suggest one, but additional research would be useful into methods of incorporating biological considerations into the weights used in the averaging. Additional research is also needed regarding the interplay between the BMR and the UF to ensure appropriate use for studies supporting a lower BMR than default values, such as for epidemiology data. Addressing these issues will aid in harmonizing methods and moving the field of risk assessment forward.

Update of the risk assessment on 3-monochloropropane diol and its fatty acid esters

The CONTAM Panel updated the assessment of the risks for human health related to the presence of 3-monochloropropane diol (3-MCPD) and its fatty acid esters in food published in 2016 in view of the scientific divergence identified in the establishment of the tolerable daily intake (TDI) in the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives and Contaminants (FAO/WHO) report published in 2017. In this update, dose-response analysis was performed following the recent EFSA Scientific Committee guidance on the use of benchmark dose (BMD) approach in risk assessment, and a review of available data on developmental and reproduction toxicity was included. The outcome of this review indicates that in rats short-term exposure to 3-MCPD above 1 mg/kg body weight (bw) per day can induce reduced sperm motility associated with reduced male fecundity. Decreased sperm count and histopathological changes in the testis and epididymis were observed following longer treatment periods at higher doses. Regarding increased incidence kidney tubular hyperplasia, BMD analysis using model averaging resulted in a BMDL 10 of 0.20 mg/kg bw per day in male rats, which was selected as the new Reference Point (RP) for renal effects. For the effects on male fertility, decreased sperm motility was selected as the most sensitive relevant endpoint and a BMDL 05 of 0.44 mg/kg bw per day was calculated. The RP for renal effects was considered to derive an updated group TDI of 2 μg/kg bw per day for 3-MCPD and its fatty acid esters and was considered protective also for effects on male fertility. The established TDI of 2 μg/kg bw per day is not exceeded in the adult population. A slight exceedance of the TDI was observed in the high consumers of the younger age groups and in particular for the scenarios on infants receiving formula only.