Will temperature and rainfall changes prevent yield progress in Europe?

Genome-wide association study reveals 18 QTL for major agronomic traits in a Nordic-Baltic spring wheat germplasm

Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) remains an important alternative to winter wheat cultivation at Northern latitudes due to high risk of overwintering or delayed sowing of winter wheat. We studied nine major agronomic traits in a set of 299 spring wheat genotypes in trials across 12-year-site combinations in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Norway for three consecutive years. The dataset analyzed here consisted of previously published phenotypic data collected in 2021 and 2022, supplemented with additional phenotypic data from the 2023 field season collected in this study. We combined these phenotypic datasets with previously published genotypic data generated using a 25K single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array that yielded 18,467 markers with a minor allele frequency above 0.05. Analysis of these datasets via genome-wide association study revealed 18 consistent quantitative trait loci (QTL) replicated in two or more trials that explained more than 5% of phenotypic variance for plant height, grain protein content, thousand kernel weight, or heading date. The most consistent markers across the tested environments were detected for plant height, thousand kernel weight, and days to heading in eight, five, and six trials, respectively. No beneficial effect of the semi-dwarfing alleles Rht-B1b and Rht-D1b on grain yield performance was observed across the 12 tested trials. Moreover, the cultivars carrying these alleles were low yielding in general. Based on principal component analysis, wheat genotypes developed in the Northern European region clustered separately from those developed at the southern latitudes, and markers associated with the clustering were identified. Important phenotypic traits, such as grain yield, days to heading, grain protein content, and thousand kernel weight were associated with this clustering of the genotype sets. Interestingly, despite being adapted to the Nordic environment, genotypes in the Northern set demonstrated lower grain yield performance across all tested environments. The results indicate that spring wheat germplasm harbors valuable QTL/alleles, and the identified trait-marker associations might be useful in improving Nordic-Baltic spring wheat germplasm under global warming conditions.

Impact of rising temperatures on historical wheat yield, phenology, and grain size in Catalonia

Introduction

Climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture, impacting crop yields and necessitating adaptive strategies in breeding programs. This study investigates the genetic yield progress of wheat varieties in Catalonia, Spain, from 2007 to 2021, and examines the relationship between genetic yield and climate-related factors, such as temperature. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for ensuring the resilience of wheat crops in the face of changing environmental conditions.

Methods

Genetic yield progress was assessed using a linear regression function, comparing the average yield changes of newly released wheat varieties to benchmark varieties. Additionally, a quadratic function was employed to model genetic yield progress in winter wheat (WW). The study also analyzed correlations between genetic yield (GY) and normalized values of hectoliter weight (HLW) and the number of grains (NG) for both spring wheat (SW) and WW. Weather data were used to confirm climate change impacts on temperature and its effects on wheat growth and development.

Results

The study found that genetic yield was stagnant for SW but increased linearly by 1.31% per year for WW. However, the quadratic function indicated a possible plateau in WW genetic yield progress in recent years. Positive correlations were observed between GY and normalized values of HLW and NG for both SW and WW. Climate change was evident in Catalonia, with temperatures increasing at a rate of 0.050 °C per year. This rise in temperature had detrimental effects on days to heading (DH) and HLW, with reductions observed in both SW and WW for each °C increase in annual minimum and average temperature.

Discussion

The findings highlighted the urgent need to address the impact of climate change on wheat cultivation. The stagnation of genetic yield in SW and the potential plateau in WW genetic yield progress call for adaptive measures. Breeding programs should prioritize phenological adjustments, particularly sowing date optimization, to align with the most favorable months of the year. Moreover, efforts should be made to enhance HLW and the number of grains per unit area in new wheat varieties to counteract the negative effects of rising temperatures. This research underscores the importance of ongoing monitoring and adaptation in agricultural practices to ensure yield resilience in the context of a changing climate.

Discovering Loci for Breeding Prospective and Phenology in Wheat Mediterranean Landraces by Environmental and eigenGWAS

Knowledge of the genetic basis of traits controlling phenology, differentiation patterns, and environmental adaptation is essential to develop new cultivars under climate change conditions. Landrace collections are an appropriate platform to study the hidden variation caused by crop breeding. The use of genome-wide association analysis for phenology, climatic data and differentiation among Mediterranean landraces led to the identification of 651 marker-trait associations that could be grouped in 46 QTL hotspots. A candidate gene analysis using the annotation of the genome sequence of the wheat cultivar 'Chinese Spring' detected 1097 gene models within 33 selected QTL hotspots. From all the gene models, 42 were shown to be differentially expressed (upregulated) under abiotic stress conditions, and 9 were selected based on their levels of expression. Different gene families previously reported for their involvement in different stress responses were found (protein kinases, ras-like GTP binding proteins and ethylene-responsive transcription factors). Finally, the synteny analysis in the QTL hotspots regions among the genomes of wheat and other cereal species identified 23, 21 and 7 ortho-QTLs for Brachypodium, rice and maize, respectively, confirming the importance of these loci.

Improving in-season wheat yield prediction using remote sensing and additional agronomic traits as predictors

The development of accurate grain yield (GY) multivariate models using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) assessments obtained from aerial vehicles and additional agronomic traits is a promising option to assist, or even substitute, laborious agronomic in-field evaluations for wheat variety trials. This study proposed improved GY prediction models for wheat experimental trials. Calibration models were developed using all possible combinations of aerial NDVI, plant height, phenology, and ear density from experimental trials of three crop seasons. First, models were developed using 20, 50 and 100 plots in training sets and GY predictions were only moderately improved by increasing the size of the training set. Then, the best models predicting GY were defined in terms of the lowest Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the inclusion of days to heading, ear density or plant height together with NDVI in most cases were better (lower BIC) than NDVI alone. This was particularly evident when NDVI saturates (with yields above 8 t ha^-1) with models including NDVI and days to heading providing a 50% increase in the prediction accuracy and a 10% decrease in the root mean square error. These results showed an improvement of NDVI prediction models by the addition of other agronomic traits. Moreover, NDVI and additional agronomic traits were unreliable predictors of grain yield in wheat landraces and conventional yield quantification methods must be used in this case. Saturation and underestimation of productivity may be explained by differences in other yield components that NDVI alone cannot detect (e.g. differences in grain size and number).