Crowding out of long-term care insurance: evidence from European expectations data

A scoping review of the impact of ageing on individual consumers' insurance purchase intentions

Recently, the phenomenon of population ageing and its impact on the insurance industry has garnered increasing global attention. However, a notable gap in scholarly research persists in understanding the nuanced effects of ageing on consumer behaviour and insurance purchase intentions. This study maps the current academic evidence on how ageing influences individual consumers' insurance decisions. Using a scoping review methodology aligned with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis extension for scoping reviews and Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines, 44 articles out of 1082 from four databases-Web of Science, Scopus, ScienceDirect, and Emerald Insight-are reviewed. The results reveal a rising interest in this research area, with China emerging as a significant contributor. The focus is predominantly on Theory of Planned Behavior, quantitative methods, questionnaire survey, regression analysis, older population, and general health insurance. Variables capturing the impact of ageing, beyond demographic information, include family-related, risk-related, and expectation-related factors. This study highlights the current state of research on ageing's effect on insurance purchase intentions and offers valuable insights and directions for future research.

Air pollution and the burden of long-term care: Evidence from China

We examine the causal effects of PM2.5 exposure on the burden of long-term care (LTC) by matching a satellite-based PM2.5 (particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometers (μm) in diameter) dataset with a nationally representative longitudinal study in China from 2011 to 2018. We find significant adverse effects of PM2.5 exposure-instrumented by thermal inversions-on the LTC burden. A 10 μg/m3 increase in annual PM2.5 exposure increases average monthly hours of LTC and the associated financial costs by 28 h and CNY 452, respectively. The effects are greater for those who had never smoked nor experienced severe PM2.5 pollution (annual average PM2.5 > 35 μg/m3) in the previous 5 years. We also find that as PM2.5 increases, chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases, could lead to a higher likelihood of LTC dependency but reduce the total hours and costs of LTC provision. Finally, we find that PM2.5 reduces the total years of LTC need, suggesting that PM2.5 increases LTC costs by increasing the severity of LTC dependency, rather than the duration of LTC need. Our findings can assist policymakers in planning for LTC provisions and clean air policies.

Research on the income and expenditure forecast of long-term care insurance fund in Shihezi City based on community care

Objective

This study forecasts the income and expenditures of the long-term care insurance fund, provides a basis for formulating the raising standard of the long-term care insurance fund, and explores the measures to improve the pilot work of long-term care insurance.

Methods

By using the exponential smoothing and ARIMA models to forecast the income and expenditure of the old-age care insurance fund in 2022, the problems existing in the operation of the long-term care insurance fund are discussed.

Results

In 2022, the income of the old-age insurance fund was 28.8934 million yuan, and the fund compensation expenditure was 28.4070 million yuan, with a slight balance of the fund. The highest relative errors of income and expenditure forecast models are -2.03% and - 2.76%, respectively. According to the results of fund expenditure, the annual financing standard should be 132.93 yuan/person, and the individual financing standard should be 66.47 yuan/person.

Conclusion

Through the integration of personal payment, welfare, sports lottery public welfare income, social donations, and other ways, we can gradually establish a multi-channel risk-sharing financing. We will appropriately raise the standard for individual financing and the annual contribution standard for individuals from 50 yuan to 66.47 yuan. This will promote sustainable development of long-term insurance system.

Complements or Substitutes? Young Germans' Experience and Expectations with Financing Sources for Long-Term Care

Financing long-term care is a growing challenge in aging societies. To address this challenge, Germany created public long-term care insurance (DPV) more than 25 years ago. Germans still need to prepare for their own care throughout their life course to supplement public insurance. This study presents descriptive statistics and multivariate regression analysis to examine young Germans' experiences and expectations of the relationship between the DPV and private financing sources. We base our analysis on a proprietary data set of young Germans (16-39 years old) that oversamples those with caregiving experience and East Germans. We find that public long-term care insurance is a substitute for rather than a complement to other financing sources. Specifically, many young Germans do not count on public long-term care insurance to finance care. Instead, they see private funding sources as substitutes for long-term care insurance. Those who count on private long-term care insurance are between 48 and 70% less likely to count on DPV benefits. Experience with care increases the likelihood of young Germans expecting future public benefits by factor of six or 18, depending on the specific care familiarity. Young Germans are also more likely to count on future generations to support their own care than they expect themselves to support the care of their parents through the DPV. Given that the DPV provides basic universal insurance that requires some complementary private income sources, our findings suggest that young Germans, who will need to build some of these income sources throughout their careers, are underestimating the value of the DPV and overestimating their own ability to pay for long-term care. Policymakers will need to reduce the political risks to the DPV and increase young Germans' savings over the life-course to address this imbalance.

Association of rurality, type of primary caregiver and place of death with end-of-life medical expenditures among the oldest-old population in China

BACKGROUND

Understanding whether the type of primary caregiver and end-of-life (EOL) care location are associated with EOL medical expenditures is crucial to inform global debates on policies for efficient and effective EOL care. This study aims to assess trends in the type of primary caregiver and place of death stratified by rural‒urban status among the oldest-old population from 1998-2018 in China. A secondary objective is to determine the associations between rurality, the type of primary caregiver, place of death and EOL medical expenditures.  METHODS: A total of 20,149 deaths of people aged 80 years or older were derived from the Chinese Longitudinal Health Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Cochran-Armitage tests and Cuzick's tests were used to test trends in the type of primary caregiver and place of death over time, respectively. Tobit models were used to estimate the marginal associations of rurality, type of primary caregiver, and place of death with EOL medical expenditures because CLHLS sets 100,000 Chinese yuan (approximately US$15,286) as the upper limit of the outcome variable.  RESULTS: Of the 20,149 oldest-old people, the median age at death was 97 years old, 12,490 (weighted, 58.6%, hereafter) were female, and 8,235 lived in urban areas. From 1998-2018, the prevalence of informal caregivers significantly increased from 94.3% to 96.2%, and home death significantly increased from 86.0% to 89.5%. The proportion of people receiving help from informal caregivers significantly increased in urban decedents (16.5%) but decreased in rural decedents (-4.0%), while home death rates significantly increased among both urban (15.3%) and rural (1.8%) decedents. In the adjusted models, rural decedents spent less than urban decedents did (marginal difference [95% CI]: $-229 [$-378, $-80]). Those who died in hospitals spent more than those who died at home ($798 [$518, $1077]). No difference in medical expenditures by type of primary caregiver was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the past two decades, the increases in informal caregiver utilization and home deaths were unequal, leading to substantially higher EOL medical expenditures among urban decedents and deceased individuals who died at hospitals than among their counterparts who lived in rural areas and died at home.

Review of evolution of the public long-term care insurance (LTCI) system in different countries: influence and challenge

Background

The growing demand for LTC (Long-term care) services for disabled elderly has become a daunting task for countries worldwide, especially China, where population aging is particularly severe. According to CSY (China Statistical Yearbook,2019), the elderly aged 65 or above has reached 167 million in 2018, and the number of disabled elderly is as high as 54%. Germany and other countries have alleviated the crisis by promoting the public LTCI (Long-Term Care Insurance) system since the 1990s, while China’s public LTCI system formal pilot only started in 2016. Therefore, the development of the public LTCI system has gradually become a hot topic for scholars in various countries, including China.

Methods

This review has been systematically sorted the existing related literature to discuss the development of public LTCI (Long-Term Care Insurance)system form four aspects, namely, the comparison of public LTCI systems in different countries, the influence of public LTCI, challenge of public LTCI, and the relationship between public LTCI and private LTCI. We searched some databases including Web of Science Core Collection, Medline, SCOPUS, EBSCO, EMBASE, ProQuest and PubMed from January 2008 to September 2020. The quality of 38 quantitative and 21 qualitative articles was evaluated using the CASP(Critical Appraisal Skills Programme) critical evaluation checklist.

Results

The review systematically examines the development of public LTCI system from four aspects, namely, the comparison of public LTCI systems in different countries, the influence of public LTCI, the challenge of public LTCI, and the relationship between public LTCI and private LTCI. For example, LTCI has a positive effect on the health and life quality of the disabled elderly. However, the role of LTCI in alleviating the financial burden on families with the disabled elderly may be limited.

Conclusion

Some policy implications on the future development of China’s LTCI system can be obtained. For example, the government should fully consider the constraints such as price rise, the elderly disability rate, and the substantial economic burden. It also can strengthen the effective combination of public LTCI and private LTCI. It does not only help to expand the space for its theoretical research but also to learn the experiences in the practice of the LTCI system in various countries around the world. It will significantly help the smooth development and further promote the in-depth reform of the LTCI system in China.

Between Migrant Care Work and New Occupational Welfare Tools: Changing Home Care Arrangements in Italy

Austerity measures on services provision, introduced due to recent economic crises, have stimulated the search for innovative welfare solutions, including options that are not directly or entirely funded by public sources. In Italy, recent legislation has promoted the development of occupational welfare (OW) measures, aimed at strengthening the supply of services to support employees with informal (elder) care responsibilities. This paper aims to describe how the newly introduced OW schemes might innovate existing care arrangements, by identifying their impact on the different actors involved in home care provision (care recipients, family carers, home care service providers and migrant care workers), as well as at a macro level in terms of promoting social innovation. The international relevance of the Italian case comes from the fact that it is one of the more representative familistic care regimes, largely characterized by home care provided by informal carers and migrant care workers (MCW). The importance of Italian OW schemes is increasing, and in 2018 their presence in company-level bargaining agreements grew by more than 15%. A rapid review of the literature and expert interviews allowed us to describe the complex Italian OW schemes system, and to identify the positive implications of their application for the country's long-term care (LTC) context, underlining what makes these measures a clear example of "social innovation" likely to have a future positive impact on home-based care in Italy.

Financial Industry Views on the Prospective Role of Long-Term Care Insurance and Reverse Mortgages in Financing Long-Term Care in Croatia

Due to the government's modest role in taking care of aging adults, as well as a rapidly aging demographic and a high share of home ownership, Croatia is an interesting case for private long-term care (LTC) financing. This study uses a qualitative survey through interviews (N = 21) with specialists from the financial industry to examine the prospects for developing LTC insurance (LTCI) and reverse mortgages. The most important obstacles to developing reverse mortgages and LTCI are an emotional attachment to real estate and strong family ties. However, inadequately regulated and nontransparent housing and LTC markets, the weak rule of law, poor financial literacy, low trust in financial institutions, and the perception of government as the savior of last resort pose additional challenges. Combined insurance products with clearly defined benefits are the products showing the most market potential.

The crowd-out effect of a mass casualty incident: Experience from a dust explosion with multiple burn injuries

A mass casualty incident (MCI) can have an enormous impact on an already crowded emergency department (ED), affecting the quality of health care provided to non-MCI ED patients. On June 26, 2015, a burn MCI (BMCI) occurred due to a cornstarch explosion at a party at a water park. The competing needs of the BMCI patients might have crowded out the needs of the non-BMCI patients. Although crowd-out effects have been previously documented in a variety of health care situations, they have not been extensively evaluated during MCIs. We aimed to determine whether the outcomes of the non-MCI patients were compromised during this incident.We conducted a retrospective observational study comparing several health care parameters and outcomes between non-BMCI patients and historical controls during the designated period using institutional electronic records and the National Health Insurance Research Database.On the night of the incident, 53 patients were sent to our ED; most of them arrived within 3 hours after the BMCI. There was a significant increase in the wait time for ICU beds among non-BMCI patients compared to the wait times during the corresponding week of the previous year (8.09 ± 4.21 hours vs 3.77 ± 2.15 hours, P = .008). At the hospital level, there was a significantly increased length of hospital stay (LOS) in the ICU after the MCI compared with the LOS in the ICU in the same week of the preceding year (median days: 15 vs 8, P ≤ .001). At the regional level, there were no significant differences between the 2 periods in the LOS in acute care, LOS in the ICU or mortality rates at the involved medical centers.Crowd-out effects from the MCI occurred in the ED and at the institutional level. Although there was an increased wait time for admission to the ICU and a longer LOS in the ICU, the LOS in acute care beds, treatment of time-sensitive diseases, and mortality rates were not compromised by the current MCI protocol at either the institutional or regional levels.

Innovating Long-Term Care Provision in Mediterranean Welfare States: A Comparison Between Italy and Israel

Social innovations in long-term care (LTC) may be useful in more effective responses to the challenges of population aging for Western societies. One of the most investigated aspects in this regard is the role of family/informal care and strategies to improve its integration into the formal care system, yielding a more holistic care approach that may enhance opportunities for aging in place. This article reports the findings of a comparative research focusing on the Italian and Israeli LTC systems as representative of the Mediterranean "family-based" care model. To analyze the innovative solutions that have been adopted or are needed to improve LTC provision in these two contexts, focus groups and expert interviews have been carried out in both countries to identify the most relevant challenges and responses to them and to highlight promising policies and strategies to be adopted or up-scaled in the future. These include multidisciplinary case and care management, a stronger connection between prevention and LTC provision, and more systematic recognition of the role and limits of informal caregivers' contributions.

What Affects the Demand for Long-Term Care Insurance? A Study of Middle-Aged and Older Adults in Hong Kong

Despite the potential of private insurance in financing long-term care (LTC), its coverage remains rather limited. This study is built on a comprehensive framework to examine the demand for LTC insurance in Hong Kong, a rapidly aging Asian society. A telephone survey was conducted in 2016 to collect data that formed a sample of 1,474 middle-aged and older adults. Multivariate analysis reveals more nuanced characteristics of Hong Kong middle-aged and older adults who tend to show a demand for LTC insurance, including: (a) being younger, better educated, relatively high status, and financially literate; (b) living with children but reluctant to be a burden on the family; (c) being in a better financial situation and able to afford premiums; and (d) anticipation of LTC needs and dependence, and a preference for formal care. This study offers preliminary evidence to understand the demand structure of the LTC insurance market in an Asian society.

Interactions between Private Health and Long-term Care Insurance and the Effects of the Crisis: Evidence for Spain

This paper analyzes the reasons for the scarce development of the private long-term care insurance market in Spain, and its relationship with health insurance. We are also interested in the effects the crisis has had both on the evolution of the demand for long-term care insurance and on the existence of regional disparities. We estimate bivariate probit models with endogenous variables using Spanish data from the Survey on Health and Retirement in Europe. Our results confirm that individuals wishing to purchase long-term care insurance are, in a sense, forced to subscribe a health insurance policy. In spite of this restriction in the supply of long-term care insurance contracts, we find its demand has grown in recent years, which we attribute to the budget cuts affecting the implementation of Spain's System of Autonomy and Attention to Dependent People. Regional differences in its implementation, as well as the varying effects the crisis has had across Spanish regions, lead to the existence of a crowding-in effect in the demand for long-term care insurance in those regions where co-payment is based on income and wealth, those that have a lower percentage of public long-term care beneficiaries, or those with a smaller share of cash benefits over total public benefits. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Partnership Program for long-term care insurance: the right model for addressing uncertainties with the future?

Public policies that provide incentives for higher middle-income people to purchase private long-term care insurance (LTCI) have been proposed as a way to shield large numbers of middle-income people from the risk of needing costly long-term care. A proposal to promote purchases of private LTCI that has gained modest traction in the United States of America is the Partnership Program. The structure and public–private nature of the Partnership Programs are reviewed along with the trends in sales of both regular private LTCI policies and Partnership LTCI policies to show that both experienced low purchase rates. Implementation efforts for the Partnership Programs were very modest, in part because many were launched when the Affordable Care Act was passed. At the same time, several well-known insurers withdrew from selling private LTCI. Understanding why the Partnership Program is not a success provides lessons for other counties interested in creating similar public–private ventures.

Financing long-term care: ex ante, ex post or both?

This paper attempts to examine the heterogeneity in the public financing of long-term care (LTC) and the wide-ranging instruments in place to finance LTC services. We distinguish and classify the institutional responses to the need for LTC financing as ex ante (occurring prior to when the need arises, such as insurance) and ex post (occurring after the need arises, such as public sector and family financing). Then, we examine country-specific data to ascertain whether the two types of financing are complements or substitutes. Finally, we examine exploratory cross-national data on public expenditure determinants, specifically economic, demographic and social determinants. We show that although both ex ante and ex post mechanisms exist in all countries with advanced industrial economies and despite the fact that instruments are different across countries, ex ante and ex post instruments are largely substitutes for each other. Expenditure estimates to date indicate that the public financing of LTC is highly sensitive to a country's income, ageing of the population and the availability of informal caregiving.