The impact of the legalisation of abortion on birth outcomes in Uruguay

Abortion Legal Reform and Neonatal Mortality in Mozambique

INTRODUCTION

Abortion law reforms have been hypothesized to influence reproductive, maternal, and neonatal health services and health outcomes, as well as social inequalities in health. In 2014, Mozambique legalized abortion in specific circumstances. However, due to challenges implementing the law, there is concern that it may have negatively influenced neonatal outcomes.

METHODS

Using a difference-in-differences design, we used birth history data collected via the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) between 2004 and 2018 to assemble a panel of 476 939 live births across 17 countries including Mozambique. We estimated the effect of the abortion reform on neonatal mortality by comparing Mozambique to a series of control countries that did not change their abortion policies. We also conducted stratified analyses to examine heterogeneity in effect estimates by household wealth, educational attainment, and rural/urban residence.

RESULTS

The reform was associated with an additional 5.6 (95% CI = 1.3, 9.9) neonatal deaths per 1,000 live birth. There was evidence of a differential effect of the reform, with a negative effect of the reform on neonatal outcomes for socially disadvantaged women, including those with no schooling, in poorer households, and living in rural areas.

DISCUSSION

Given the delay in implementation, our analyses suggest that abortion reform in Mozambique was associated with an initial increase in neonatal mortality particularly among socially disadvantaged women. This may be due to the delay in effective implementation, including the dissemination of clear guidelines and expansion of safe abortion services. Longer-term follow-up is needed to assess the impact of the reform after 2018, when services were expanded. Abortion legal reform without adequate implementation and enforcement is unlikely to be sufficient to improve abortion access and health outcomes.

Subdermal contraceptive implants and repeat teenage motherhood: Evidence from a major maternity hospital-based program in Uruguay

Teenage fertility is a social problem because of its private and public costs in countries of different development levels. Reductions in adolescent birth rates do not necessarily follow drops in overall fertility due to the demographic transition model. This paper analyses the impact of a subdermal contraceptive program on repeat teenage motherhood. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that the intervention reduced mothers' likelihood of having another child in the next 48 months by 10 percentage points. This reduction is not random, and we also identify small positive selection in subsequent births.

The impact of criminalisation on abortion-related outcomes: a synthesis of legal and health evidence

Abortion is criminalised to at least some degree in most countries. International human rights bodies have recognised that criminalisation results in the provision of poor-quality healthcare goods and services, is associated with lack of registration and unavailability of essential medicines including mifepristone and misoprostol, obstructs the provision of abortion information, obstructs training for abortion provision, is associated with delayed and unsafe abortion, and does not achieve its apparent aims of ether protecting abortion seekers from unsafe abortion or preventing abortion. Human rights bodies recommend decriminalisation, which is generally associated with reduced stigma, improved quality of care, and improved access to safe abortion. Drawing on insights from reproductive health, law, policy, and human rights, this review addresses knowledge gaps related to the health and non-health outcomes of criminalisation of abortion. This review identified evidence of the impacts of criminalisation of people seeking to access abortion and on abortion providers and considered whether, and if so how, this demonstrates the incompatibility of criminalisation with substantive requirements of international human rights law. Our analysis shows that criminalisation is associated with negative implications for health outcomes, health systems, and human rights enjoyment. It provides a further underpinning from empirical evidence of the harms of criminalisation that have already been identified by human rights bodies. It also provides additional evidence to support the WHO's recommendation for full decriminalisation of abortion.

The relationship between abortion rates and economic fluctuations

We analyze the relationship between abortions and economic fluctuation at the U.S. state level for the 1995-2016 period. We do not find a statistically significant association between the overall abortion rate and the unemployment rate across the full sample period. However, we observe a procyclical association from approximately 2004 to 2010, during which a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a roughly 5% decrease in the abortion rate. This procyclical association is confirmed when we subsample our data to the 2005-2016 period. Our subgroup analysis indicates a procyclical association for the abortion rates for younger women, while we do not observe statistically significant associations when the analysis is stratified by race or ethnicity. The associations we observe for the younger age groups are especially pronounced in states with restrictions on Medicaid funding of abortions. Our analysis suggests that economic conditions may be an important factor in the reproductive choices by women.

Abortion Legalization in Uruguay: Effects on Adolescent Fertility

The Latin American and Caribbean adolescent fertility rates are among the highest in the world: about 1.7 million children are born to teen mothers every year, and most of them are declared unintended pregnancies. The region also has the highest rate of unintended pregnancy of any world region, and nearly half of such pregnancies end in abortion. However, fewer than 18 percent of the region's women live in countries where abortion is broadly legal. This paper estimates the causal effect of abortion legalization on adolescent fertility in Uruguay using official data on legal abortions provided after the 2012 reform. We employed a difference-in-differences strategy, classifying states by whether they are responsive or unresponsive to the reform. The results suggest that abortion reform had a negative impact on the adolescent birth rate by 2.5-2.8 births per thousand adolescents aged 15-19 (a 4 percent decrease from the preintervention average). Additionally, we exploited variation in reform implementation intensity through the estimation of fixed-effect linear regression models and found consistent results. Our findings are robust to controlling for a concurrent large-scale program of contraceptive implants. We conclude that legislation aimed at enhancing rights and reducing avoidable deaths and complications from unsafe abortions may also have spillover effects that help reduce adolescent fertility.

The impact of 'grounds' on abortion-related outcomes: a synthesis of legal and health evidence

Where abortion is legal, it is often regulated through a grounds-based approach. A grounds-based approach to abortion provision occurs when law and policy provide that lawful abortion may be provided only where a person who wishes to have an abortion satisfies stipulated 'grounds', sometimes described as 'exceptions' or 'exceptional grounds'. Grounds-based approaches to abortion are, prima facie, restrictive as they limit access to abortion based on factors extraneous to the preferences of the pregnant person. International human rights law specifies that abortion must be available (and not 'merely' lawful) where the life or health of the pregnant woman or girl is at risk, or where carrying a pregnancy to term would cause her substantial pain or suffering, including but not limited to situations where the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest or the pregnancy is not viable. However, international human rights law does not specify a grounds-based approach as the way to give effect to this requirement. The aim of this review is to address knowledge gaps related to the health and non-health outcomes plausibly related to the effects of a grounds-based approach to abortion regulation. The evidence from this review shows that grounds have negative implications for access to quality abortion and for the human rights of pregnant people. Further, it shows that grounds-based approaches are insufficient to meet states' human rights obligations. The evidence presented in this review thus suggests that enabling access to abortion on request would be more rights-enhancing than grounds-based approaches to abortion regulation.

Adolescent pregnancy, public policies, and targeted programs in Latin America and the Caribbean: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To present and assess evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) on public policies and targeted programs which may have influenced variations in adolescent pregnancy or its proximate determinants, and to identify knowledge gaps that require further research.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed based on the 2015 PRISMA protocol. Five databases were searched for articles published between 2000 and 2019 that refer to at least one country in LAC. The outcomes of interest were adolescent pregnancy or its proximate determinants (sexual behavior, contraceptive use, and/ or abortion). Only studies exploring correlations between the outcomes of interest and public policies or targeted programs were included in the analysis.

RESULTS

Thirty studies spanning 14 countries were selected for analysis. Twenty-three of these (77%) were not included in prior systematic reviews on adolescent pregnancy. Public policies related to conditional cash transfers and compulsory education have the strongest evidence of correlation with adolescent pregnancy prevention. Emerging research points to the potential positive impact of life-skills programs for adolescents. Evidence from public health policies and programs was limited.

CONCLUSIONS

Further research which incorporates an intersectional analysis is needed to better understand which policies and programs could lead to steeper declines in adolescent pregnancy in the region. Evidence on effects of expanded family planning services and secondary school attainment upon adolescent pregnancy are particularly absent.

Birth Collapse and a Large-Scale Access Intervention with Subdermal Contraceptive Implants

Between 2016 and 2018, we observe in Uruguay a steep decline of almost 20 percent in the number of total births, leading to the collapse of the adolescent fertility rate after decades of relative stagnation. We estimate the quantitative contribution on birth rates, especially teen births, of a policy of expanded availability of subdermal contraceptive implants. We exploit the expansion schedule of a large-scale policy of free-of-charge access to subdermal implants in the country's public health system through an event study to capture causal effects. We use detailed birth administrative records for the past 20 years. We document an average reduction of 3 percent in the birth rate in public health facilities across the two years after the policy was implemented in each department. These reductions were notably higher among teens and first births. Although changes in women's fertility decisions are a multicausal phenomenon, we claim that the expanded availability of subdermal contraceptive implants accounted for one-third of the teen and young women's birth collapse.

Impact of abortion law reforms on health services and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

While restrictive abortion laws still prevail in most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), many countries have reformed their abortion laws, expanding the grounds on which abortion can be performed legally. However, the implications of these reforms on women's access to and use of health services, as well as their health outcomes, are uncertain. This systematic review aimed to evaluate and synthesize empirical research evidence concerning the effects of abortion law reforms on women's health services and health outcomes in LMICs. We searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL and Web of Science databases, as well as grey literature and reference lists of included studies. We included pre-post and quasi-experimental studies that aimed to estimate the causal effect of a change in abortion law on at least one of four outcomes: (1) use of and access to abortion services, (2) fertility rates, (3) maternal and/or neonatal morbidity and mortality and (4) contraceptive use. We assessed the quality of studies using the quasi-experimental study design series checklist and synthesized evidence through a narrative description. Of the 2796 records identified by our search, we included 13 studies in the review, which covered reforms occurring in Uruguay, Ethiopia, Mexico, Nepal, Chile, Romania, India and Ghana. Studies employed pre-post, interrupted time series, difference-in-differences and synthetic control designs. Legislative reforms from highly restrictive to relatively liberal were associated with reductions in fertility, particularly among women from 20 to 34 years of age, as well as lower maternal mortality. Evidence regarding the impact of abortion reforms on other outcomes, as well as whether effects vary by socioeconomic status, is limited. Further research is required to strengthen the evidence base for informing abortion legislation in LMICs. This review explicitly points to the need for rigorous quasi-experimental studies with sensitivity analyses to assess underlying assumptions. The systematic review was registered in PROSPERO database CRD42019126927.

The long-term impact of restricted access to abortion on children's socioeconomic outcomes

We examine the long-term consequences of restricted access to abortion following a change in the Hungarian abortion law in 1974. Due to a change that restricted access to legal abortions, the number of induced abortions decreased from 169,650 to 102,022 between 1973 and 1974, whereas the number of live births increased from 156,224 to 186,288. We analyze the effects on the adult outcomes of the affected cohort of newborns (educational attainment, labor market participation, teen fertility). We use matched large-scale, individual-level administrative datasets of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (population census 2011; live birth register), and we estimate the effects by comparing children born within a short timespan around the time the law change came into effect. We apply a difference-in-differences approach, building on the special rules of the new law that, despite the severe restriction, still made abortion permissible for selected groups of women. We control for the compositional change in the population of parents, rule out the effect of (unobserved) time trends and other potential behavioral responses to the law change, and draw causal inferences. We find that restricted access to abortion had, on average, a negative impact on the socioeconomic outcomes of the affected cohort of children. Children born after the law change have had worse educational outcomes, a greater likelihood of being unemployed at age 37, and a higher probability of being a teen parent.