Nomogram model of survival prediction for nasopharyngeal carcinoma with lung metastasis: developed from the SEER database and validated externally

Objective

Distant metastasis occurs in some patients at the first diagnosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), the prognosis is poor, and there are significant individual differences. This study established a nomogram model of lung metastasis of NPC as a supplement to TNM staging.

Methods

The training cohort is used to build the nomogram model, and the validation cohort is used to evaluate the model. The training cohort of 177 patients is from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Factors affecting overall survival (OS) in patients with lung metastasis of NPC analysis by Cox regression analysis and then a nomogram were established. 122 patients from the Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Guangxi Medical University were selected as the external validation cohort. The concordance index (C-index), the area under the curve (AUC), and the calibration curve were used to assess the accuracy of the nomogram and used the decision curve analysis (DCA) curve to measure the clinical benefit capacity of the model. The patients were separated into two groups with different risks, and the "Kaplan-Meier (KM)" survival analysis was used to evaluate the differentiation ability of the model.

Results

Age, T-stage, radiation, chemotherapy, and brain metastases can affect the OS in NPC with lung metastasis. A nomogram was developed according to the above five factors. The C-index of the training cohort and the validation cohort were 0.726 (95% CI: 0.692-0.760) and 0.762 (95% CI: 0.733-0.791). The AUC of the nomogram was better than that of the TNM staging. In the training cohort, the nomogram predicted OS AUC values of 0.767, 0.746, and 0.750 at 1, 2, and 3 years, TNM stage of 0.574, 0.596, and 0.640. In the validation cohort, nomogram predictions of OS AUC values of 0.817, 0.857, and 0.791 for 1, 2, and 3 years, TNM stage of 0.575, 0.612, and 0.663. DCA curves suggest that nomogram have better clinical net benefits than TNM staging. The KM survival analysis shows that the nomogram has a reasonable risk stratification ability.

Conclusion

This study successfully established a nomogram model of NPC lung metastasis, which can be used as a supplement to TNM staging and provide reference for clinicians.

Anatomic prognostic factors and their potential roles in refining M1 classification for de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

To identify anatomic prognostic factors and their potential roles in refining M1 classification for de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (M1-NPC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All M1-NPC treated with chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy between 2010 and 2019 from two centers (training and validation cohort) were included. The prognostic value of metastatic disease extent and involved organs for overall survival (OS) were assessed by several multivariable analyses (MVA) models. A new M1 classification was proposed and validated in a separate cohort who received immuno-chemotherapy.

RESULTS

A total of 197 M1-NPC in the training and 307 in the validation cohorts were included for M1 subdivision study with median follow-up of 46 and 57 months. MVA model with "≤2 organs/≤5 lesions" as the definition of oligometastasis had the highest C-index (0.623) versus others (0.606-0.621). Patients with oligometastasis had better OS versus polymetastasis (hazard ratio [HR] 0.47/0.63) while liver metastases carried worse OS (HR 1.57/1.45) in MVA in the training/validation cohorts, respectively. We proposed to divide M1-NPC into M1a (oligometastasis without liver metastases) and M1b (liver metastases or polymetastasis) with 3-year OS of 66.5%/31.7% and 64.9%/35.0% in the training/validation cohorts, respectively. M1a subset had a better median progress-free survival (not reach vs. 17 months, p < 0.001) in the immuno-chemotherapy cohort (n = 163).

CONCLUSION

Oligometastasis (≤2 organs/≤5 lesions) and liver metastasis are prognostic for M1-NPC. Subdivision of M1-NPC into M1a (oligometastasis without liver metastasis) and M1b (liver metastasis or polymetastasis) depicts the prognosis well in M1-NPC patients who received immuno-chemotherapy.

Definitive Chemoradiation Associated with Improved Survival Outcomes in Patients with Synchronous Oligometastatic Esophageal Cancer

BACKGROUND

The study of oligometastatic esophageal cancer (EC) is relatively new. Preliminary data suggests that more aggressive treatment regimens in select patients may improve survival rates in oligometastatic EC. However, the consensus recommends palliative treatment. We hypothesized that oligometastatic esophageal cancer patients treated with a definitive approach (chemoradiotherapy [CRT]) would have improved overall survival (OS) compared to those treated with a purely palliative intent and historical controls.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with synchronous oligometastatic (any histology, ≤5 metastatic foci) esophageal cancer treated in a single academic hospital were retrospectively analyzed and divided into definitive and palliative treatment groups. Definitive CRT was defined as radiation therapy to the primary site with ≥40 Gy and ≥2 cycles of chemotherapy.

RESULTS

Of 78 Stage IVB (AJCC 8th ed.) patients, 36 met the pre-specified oligometastatic definition. Of these, 19 received definitive CRT, and 17 received palliative treatment. With a median follow-up of 16.5 months (Range: 2.3-95.0 months), median OS for definitive CRT and palliative groups were 90.2 and 8.1 months (p < 0.01), translating into 5-year OS of 50.5% (95%CI: 32.0-79.8%) vs. 7.5% (95%CI: 1.7-48.9%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Oligometastatic EC patients treated with definitive CRT benefited from that approach with survival rates (50.5%) that vastly exceeded historical standards of 5% at 5 years for metastatic EC. Oligometastatic EC patients treated with definitive CRT had significantly improved OS compared to those treated with palliative-only intent within our cohort. Notably, definitively treated patients were generally younger and with better performance status versus those palliatively treated. Further prospective evaluation of definitive CRT for oligometastatic EC is warranted.

The oligometastatic setting in HNSCC: A critical review by the Rete Oncologica Piemonte e Valle d'Aosta multidisciplinary team

INTRODUCTION

The oligometastatic disease is a low burden metastatic disease that might still benefit from curable treatment. Squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (HNSCC) is a complex group of malignancies, with high rates of loco-regional recurrences. Distant metastases are less frequent, and a single or few deposits are often observed (oligometastatic disease). The optimal management of oligometastatic HNSCC remains to be defined.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Key references were derived from a PubMed query. Hand searching and clinicaltrials.gov were also used.

RESULTS

This paper contains a narrative report and a critical discussion of the available evidence on the management of oligometastatic HNSCC patients, with a focus on metastasis-directed therapy (MDT), particularly stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR).

CONCLUSIONS

in line with literature data, the multidisciplinary evaluation emerged as the key element in the management of oligometastatic HNSCC patients.

Identifying nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients with metachronous metastasis sensitive to local treatment: a real-world study

It is difficult for physicians to identify patients with metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) who are sensitive to local treatment of metastases. Here, we aimed to establish a prognostic model for survival and individualize treatments for patients with metastatic NPC. Data were collated from 240 NPC patients diagnosed with metachronous metastasis between 2006 and 2020 who received palliative chemotherapy with or without local treatment. Multivariable Cox regression was implemented to construct a nomogram which had a concordance index of 0.764 when predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS). We then classified patients according to risk, creating low- and high-risk groups using the nomogram. Differences in OS between the two groups were significant (P<0.001). In the low-risk group, the OS for patients who received local treatment was longer than those without (P=0.009). This novel nomogram shows good performance in classifying patients according to risk and may also be a promising tool for determining who responds best to local treatment. Further validation using external center data is warranted.

Investigation of the Definition of De Novo Oligometastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Retrospective Study

Background

The prognosis of metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (mNPC) is highly heterogeneous. As a special stage of distant metastasis of mNPC, quite a few oligometastatic NPC (omNPC) patients can still achieve a long-term survival after treatment. However, there is no uniform standard for the definition of omNPC until now.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed the survival data of 191 patients with de novo mNPC at the Affiliated Cancer Hospital and Institute of Guangzhou Medical University between 2010 and 2017 and specifically analyzed the clinical outcomes associated with the number of metastatic organs/lesions and tried to find a cohort with relatively better prognosis to define as omNPC.

Results

The median overall survival (OS) of the entire group of patients was 21.5 months (95% CI 15.0–28.0), and the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year OS rates were 72.2%, 46.1%, and 34.3%, respectively. Multiple-organ metastases (P < 0.001) and >5 metastatic lesions (P < 0.001) were adverse influencing factors of prognosis, and the number of metastatic lesions (P < 0.001) was the independent factor influencing the prognosis of de novo mNPC. The overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of patients with ≤5 metastatic lesions were significantly better than those of patients with >5 metastatic lesions.

Conclusion

Patients with ≤5 metastatic lesions presented a better survival, and this criterion may be a definition standard for the de novo omNPC.

Effects of locoregional radiotherapy in de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A real-world study

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Locoregional radiotherapy can prolong OS for patients with de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

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Nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients with oligometastic disease can benefit from locoregional radiotherapy rather than polymetastatic disease.

Background

To evaluate the value of locoregional radiotherapy (LRRT) in de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (dmNPC) and identify predictive factors for additional LRRT after palliative chemotherapy (PCT).

Methods

Overall survival (OS) was the primary endpoint. Patients who underwent PCT and LRRT were categorized as the PCT+LRRT group; patients who only received palliative chemotherapy were categorized as the PCT group. Oligometastatic diseases (OMD) was defined as ≤5 metastatic lesions and ≤2 metastatic organs.

Results

A total of 168 patients were included for this study. The median OS of patients in the PCT+LRRT group was significantly higher than those in the PCT group (57 months vs. 22 months, P<0.001). Multivariate analyses (MVA) showed that LRRT (HR=0.533, 95% CI: 0.319–0.889, P = 0.016) and OMD (HR=0.548, 95% CI: 0.331–0.907, P = 0.019) were independent prognostic factors for dmNPC. Furthermore, Kaplan–Meier analyses showed that the 3-year OS of patients who received LRRT was significantly better than those who did not receive LRRT in the OMD subgroup (66.3% vs. 25.2%, P<0.001). While, the 3-year OS of patients who received LRRT and without LRRT was no different in the polymetastatic disease (PMD) subgroup (38.9% vs.11.5%, P = 0.115). MVA showed that LRRT was a favorable prognosticator in the OMD subgroup (HR=0.308, 95% CI: 0.159–0.598; P<0.001), and not a favorable prognosticator in the PMD subgroup (HR=0.510, 95% CI: 0.256–1.014, P = 0.055).

Conclusions

LRRT has the potential to prolong OS in NPC patients with de novo OMD. These results suggest that OMD is a potential indicator for filtering beneficiaries from LRRT.

Optimal management of oligometastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma

PURPOSE

Oligometastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a distinctive subset of metastatic NPC. Imaging examinations and biomarkers can screen out NPC patients with limited number of sites showing metastasis. Past studies have demonstrated the survival advantages of oligometastatic NPC over multiple metastatic NPC. The treatment strategies of de-novo oligometastatic NPC differ owing to the heterogeneity of this disease. This study aims to systematically review the characteristics and treatments of oligometastatic NPC.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, the Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library were used to search for publications with an emphasis on oligometastatic NPC.

RESULTS

We have presented the current advances on the management of oligometastatic NPC, including the definition, diagnosis, biomarkers, classification, prognosis, subtype, especially systematic therapy, locoregional radiotherapy to the primary tumor, and treatments of the metastatic lesions.

CONCLUSIONS

More well-designed prospective clinical trials that are exclusive for oligometastatic NPC are warranted to determine the best treatment paradigm.

Oligometastases in head and neck carcinoma and their impact on management

Historically, patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) with distant metastases were regarded as palliative. Oligometastasis (OM) refers to patients with a limited number of distant metastatic deposits. Treatment of patients with OMs has been reported in patients with lung, colon, breast, prostate and brain malignancies. Selected patients with oligometastatic HNSCC have a higher probability of durable disease control and cure and these patients should be treated aggressively. Treatment options for patients with HNSCC OMs include single or combinations of the three arms of cancer treatment, that is surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy/immunotherapy. To date, there are limited studies reporting the management of OM with head and neck malignancy. This review will give insights into the management of OMs in HNSCC.

Metastatic Patterns and Prognosis of de novo Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the distant metastatic patterns and prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (mNPC) using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

METHODS

Patients with de novo mNPC who had been diagnosed between 2004 and 2016 were identified from the SEER database. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to calculate OS and CSS. Log-rank tests were employed to measure survival variation among subgroups. Individual predictors of CSS and OS were examined using Cox proportional-hazards regression models in patients with de novo mNPC.

RESULTS

We evaluated 224 patients with de novo mNPC who matched our inclusion criteria. Three-year CSS and OS for the whole cohort was 29.8% and 27.9%, respectively. Univariate analysis indicated that CSS and OS were influenced by age, histology, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and liver metastasis. Neither the number of metastatic sites nor their specific location in bone, lungs, distant lymph nodes or brain significantly affected CSS or OS. The aforementioned independent prognosticators continued to significantly influence survival following multivariate analysis. Taking distant metastasis without liver involvement as a reference, liver metastasis was associated significantly with shorter OS at a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.581 (P = .021) and CSS at a HR of 1.643 (P = .016). Older age, keratinizing squamous cell carcinoma, no chemotherapy, and no radiotherapy were also prognosticators for poor OS (P < .05). Similar results were documented for CSS (P < .05).

CONCLUSION

For patients with de novo mNPC, liver metastasis is an independent prognosticator for inferior CSS and OS.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

3a Laryngoscope, 131:E1130-E1138, 2021.

Management of adenoid cystic carcinoma of the head and neck: a single-institute study with over 25-year follow-up

Background

Adenoid cystic carcinoma is a rare malignant tumor arising from exocrine glands such as the major and minor salivary glands of the paranasal sinuses or the external auditory canal. Although multiple retrospective clinical studies of ACC have been reported to date, clinical questions, such as 1) long-term prognosis beyond 20 years, 2) usefulness and suitability for treatment of therapeutic interventions, 3) therapeutic goal to aim for, and 4) prognosis by recurrence sites, are still unclear.

Methods

To improve understanding and management of adenoid cystic carcinoma of the head and neck (ACC), a retrospective study with 58 new ACC cases between 1991 and 2016 was performed. The median observation period was 66.8 months (range 3–316 months). The overall clinical stages were as follows: I, 6.9%; II, 25.9%; III, 19.0%; and IV, 48.2%. Histology was cribriform/tubular type (C-T type) in 62.0% and solid type in 27.5%. The main treatment strategy was definitive surgery, which was performed in 75.2% of cases.

Results

Overall 10-year, 20-year, and 25-year survivals were 63.7, 27.3, and 20.0%, respectively. Similarly, disease-specific survival (DSSs) was 65.7, 51.2, and 38.4%, respectively, and disease-free survival was 25.2, 9.4, and 9.4%, respectively. Conducting surgery (HR: 0.19, 95% CI: 0.06–0.61, p = 0.005) and C-T type (HR: 0.32, 95% CI: 0.11–0.93, p = 0.036) were independent prognostic predictors of DSS. DSS was significantly prolonged after salvage surgery for both locoregional recurrence (p = 0.004) and lung metastatic recurrence (p = 0.012, vs best supportive care).

Conclusions

In ACC cases, both initial surgical treatment and repetitive surgical resection of resectable recurrent lesions, including both locoregional and lung metastases, resulted in longer survival. The major goal of treatment for ACC may be long-term survival including cancer-bearing survival, resulting in either natural death or intercurrent-disease death, since judging cure of ACC is almost impossible.

Trial registration

Retrospectively registered.

Current management of stage IV nasopharyngeal carcinoma without distant metastasis

Up to one in four patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma present with non-metastatic stage IV disease (i.e. T4 or N3). Distinct failure patterns exist, despite the routine adoption of contemporary treatment modalities such as intensity modulated radiotherapy and systemic chemotherapy. Concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) followed by adjuvant chemotherapy or induction chemotherapy followed by CCRT are commonly employed in this setting, with the latter emerging as the preferred option. Additionally, emerging radiation technologies like proton therapy has become available offering new opportunities for prevention of radiation-induced side effects. This article reviews not only the current treatment strategies, but also discusses novel ways to tackle this challenging disease with respect to the patterns of failure.