Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) for liver allocation: a 5-year score card

A novel nomogram predicting overt hepatic encephalopathy after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in portal hypertension patients

We aim to develop a nomogram to predict overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in patients with portal hypertension, according to demographic/clinical indicators such as age, creatinine, blood ammonia, indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min (ICG-R15) and percentage of Portal pressure gradient (PPG) decline. In this retrospective study, 296 patients with portal hypertension who received elective TIPS in Beijing Shijitan Hospital from June 2018 to June 2020 were included. These patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 207) and a validation cohort (n = 89). According to the occurrence of OHE, patients were assigned to OHE group and non-OHE group. Both univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine independent variables for predicting OHE after TIPS. Accordingly, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to compare the accuracy and superiority of a novel model with conventional Child-Pugh and MELD scoring model. Age (OR 1.036, 95% CI 1.002-1.070, p = 0.037), Creatinine (OR 1.011, 95% CI 1.003-1.019, p = 0.009), Blood ammonia (OR 1.025, 95% CI 1.006-1.044, p = 0.011), ICG-R15 (OR 1.030, 95% CI 1.009-1.052, p = 0.004) and Percentage decline in PPG (OR 1.068, 95% CI 1.029-1.109, p = 0.001) were independent risk factors for OHE after TIPS using multifactorial analysis. A nomogram was constructed using a well-fit calibration curve for each of these five covariates. When compared to Child-Pugh and MELD score, this new nomogram has a better predictive value (C-index = 0.828, 95% CI 0.761-0.896). Consistently, this finding was reproduceable in validation cohort and confirmed with DCA. A unique nomogram was developed to predict OHE after TIPS in patients with PHT, with a high prediction sensitivity and specificity performance than commonly applied scoring systems.

Machine learning prediction model for post- hepatectomy liver failure in hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter study

Introduction

Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is one of the most serious complications and causes of death in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatectomy. This study aimed to develop a novel machine learning (ML) model based on the light gradient boosting machines (LightGBM) algorithm for predicting PHLF.

Methods

A total of 875 patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy were randomized into a training cohort (n=612), a validation cohort (n=88), and a testing cohort (n=175). Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) was performed to determine the importance of individual variables. By combining these independent risk factors, an ML model for predicting PHLF was established. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and decision curve analyses (DCA) were used to evaluate the accuracy of the ML model and compare it to that of other noninvasive models.

Results

The AUCs of the ML model for predicting PHLF in the training cohort, validation cohort, and testing cohort were 0.944, 0.870, and 0.822, respectively. The ML model had a higher AUC for predicting PHLF than did other non-invasive models. The ML model for predicting PHLF was found to be more valuable than other noninvasive models.

Conclusion

A novel ML model for the prediction of PHLF using common clinical parameters was constructed and validated. The novel ML model performed better than did existing noninvasive models for the prediction of PHLF.

A Novel Nomogram for Prediction of Post-Hepatectomy Liver Failure in Patients with Resectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Multicenter Study

Objective

To develop a nomogram for predicting post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) in patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on portal hypertension, the extent of resection, ALT, total bilirubin, and platelet count.

Methods

Patients with HCC hospitalized from January 2015 to December 2020 were included in a retrospective cohort study. 595 HCC patients were divided into a training cohort (n=416) and a validation cohort (n=179) by random sampling. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to identify the independent variables to predict PHLF. The nomogram models for predicting the overall risk of PHLF and the risk of PHLF B+C were constructed based on the independent variables. Comparisons were made by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) with traditional models, such as FIB-4 score, APRI score, CP class (Child-Pugh), MELD score (model of end-stage liver disease), and ALBI score (albumin-bilirubin) to analyze the accuracy and superiority of the nomogram.

Results

We discovered that portal hypertension (yes vs no) (OR=1.677,95% CI:1.817–4.083, p=0.002), the extent of liver resection (OR=1.872,95% CI:3.937–47.096, p=0.001), ALT (OR=1.003,95% CI:1.003–1.016, P=0.003), total bilirubin (OR=1.036,95% CI:1.031–1.184, p=0.005), and platelet count (OR= 1.004, 95% CI:0.982–0.998, p=0.020) were independent risk factors for PHLF using multifactorial analysis. The nomogram models were constructed using well-fit calibration curves for each of these five covariates. When compared to the FIB4, ALBI, MELD, and CP score, our nomogram models have a better predictive value for predicting the overall risk of PHLF or the risk of PHLF B+C. The validation cohort’s results were consistent. DCA also confirmed the conclusion.

Conclusion

Our models, in the form of static nomogram or web application, were developed to predict PHLF overall risk and PHLF B+C risk in patients with HCC, with a high prediction sensitivity and specificity performance than other commonly used scoring systems.

Hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure induced by hepatotropic viral insult is associated with worse prognosis than that induced by non-virus insult

BACKGROUND

The manifestations and prognoses of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) with different precipitating events remain heterogeneous. We aimed to investigate the characteristics and prognosis of patients with hepatotropic viral insult (HVI)-induced hepatitis B-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF).

METHODS

452 patients with confirmed diagnosis of ACLF were screened in three medical centers in China, and 203 HBV-ACLF patients with definite acute precipitating events were retrospectively analyzed. According to the precipitating events, HBV-ACLF patients induced by HBV reactivation and super-infection with HAV were classified as the hepatotropic viral insult group and those induced by other factors, as the non-virus insult (NVI) group. The clinical characteristics, predictive scoring model, and prognosis of the two groups were compared.

RESULTS

Hepatitis B virus reactivation accounted for the largest proportion (39.9%) among all precipitating events. Exacerbation time frame of the HVI group was significantly longer than that of the NVI group (20 days vs. 10 days, P < 0.001). Comparison of intergroup prognosis showed that there was no significant difference in the 28 day mortality (20.9 vs. 13.7%, P = 0.125), while the 90 day and 1 year mortality in the HVI group were higher than those in the NVI group (36.3 vs. 24.4%, P = 0.014; 39.5% vs. 27.5%, P = 0.020, respectively). In the HVI group, the lactic acid-free APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) had better predictive value for 90 day mortality (0.741).

CONCLUSIONS

The 90 day and 1 year survival rate was lower in HBV-ACLF patients induced by HVI than by NVI. The lactate-free AARC score was a better predictor of short- and long-term prognosis in patients with HVI-induced HBV-ACLF.

Prospective Study of Outcomes in Adults with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

The prognoses with respect to mortality and hepatic and nonhepatic outcomes across the histologic spectrum of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are not well defined.

METHODS

We prospectively followed a multicenter patient population that included the full histologic spectrum of NAFLD. The incidences of death and other outcomes were compared across baseline histologic characteristics.

RESULTS

A total of 1773 adults with NAFLD were followed for a median of 4 years. All-cause mortality increased with increasing fibrosis stages (0.32 deaths per 100 person-years for stage F0 to F2 [no, mild, or moderate fibrosis], 0.89 deaths per 100 persons-years for stage F3 [bridging fibrosis], and 1.76 deaths per 100 person-years for stage F4 [cirrhosis]). The incidence of liver-related complications per 100 person-years increased with fibrosis stage (F0 to F2 vs. F3 vs. F4) as follows: variceal hemorrhage (0.00 vs. 0.06 vs. 0.70), ascites (0.04 vs. 0.52 vs. 1.20), encephalopathy (0.02 vs. 0.75 vs. 2.39), and hepatocellular cancer (0.04 vs. 0.34 vs. 0.14). As compared with patients with stage F0 to F2 fibrosis, patients with stage F4 fibrosis also had a higher incidence of type 2 diabetes (7.53 vs. 4.45 events per 100 person-years) and a decrease of more than 40% in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (2.98 vs. 0.97 events per 100 person-years). The incidence of cardiac events and nonhepatic cancers were similar across fibrosis stages. After adjustment for age, sex, race, diabetes status, and baseline histologic severity, the incidence of any hepatic decompensation event (variceal hemorrhage, ascites, or encephalopathy) was associated with increased all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 6.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.2 to 21.3).

CONCLUSIONS

In this prospective study involving patients with NAFLD, fibrosis stages F3 and F4 were associated with increased risks of liver-related complications and death. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others; NAFLD DB2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01030484.).

Changing Trends in Liver Transplantation: Challenges and Solutions

Despite improvements in postliver transplant outcomes through refinements in perioperative management and surgical techniques, several changing trends in liver transplantation have presented challenges. Mortality on the waitlist remains high. In the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom, there is an increasing need for liver transplantation, primarily as a result of increased incidence of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis-related cirrhosis and cancer indications. Meanwhile, donor suitability has decreased, as donors are often older and have more comorbidities. Despite a mismatch between organ need and availability, many organs are discarded. Notwithstanding this, many solutions have been developed to overcome these challenges. Innovative techniques in allograft preservation, viability assessment, and reconditioning have allowed the use of suboptimal organs with adequate results. Refinements in surgical procedures, including live donor liver transplantations, have increased the organ pool and are decreasing the time and mortality on the waitlist. Despite many challenges, a similar number of solutions and prospects are on the horizon. This review seeks to explore the changing trends and challenges in liver transplantation and highlight possible solutions and future directions.

Impact of psychosocial status on liver transplant process

Liver transplant candidates and recipients are at high risk of psychological distress. Social, psychological and psychiatric patterns seem to influence morbidity and mortality of patients before and after transplant. An accurate organ allocation is mandatory to guarantee an optimal graft and recipient survival. In this context, the pre-transplant social, psychological and psychiatric selection of potential candidates is essential for excluding major psychiatric illness and for estimating the patient compliance. Depression is one of the most studied psychological conditions in the field of organ transplantation. Notably, an ineffectively treated depression in the pre-transplant period has been associated to a worst long-term recipient survival. After transplant, personalized psychological intervention might favor recovery process, improvement of quality of life and immunosuppressant adherence. Active coping strategy represents one of the most encouraging ways to positively influence the clinical course of transplanted patients. In conclusion, multidisciplinary team should act in three directions: prevention of mood distress, early diagnosis and effective treatment. Active coping, social support and multidisciplinary approach might improve the clinical outcome of transplanted patients.

Pre-transplant ALBI Grade 3 Is Associated with Increased Mortality After Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Although MELD score is a reliable tool for estimating mortality in the waiting list, criteria for preoperative prediction of survival after liver transplantation (LT) are lacking. ALBI score was validated as a prognostic marker for hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization, hepatic resection, and sorafenib treatment but not for LT outcomes yet. This study aimed to evaluate ALBI score as a prognostic factor in LT.

METHODS

This is a single-center analysis of patients undergoing LT between October 2001 and June 2017. Primary endpoint was overall post-LT mortality. Secondary endpoint was 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

Of all 301 patients included in this study, 185 (61.5%) were males. The median age was 54.1 ± 11.3 years. Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed that ALBI grade 3 (HR 1.836, 95% CI 1.154-2.921, p = 0.010), low serum albumin (HR 0.628, 95% CI 0.441-0.893, p = 0.010), black race (HR 2.431, 95% CI 1.160-5.092, p = 0.019), and elevated body mass index (HR 1.061, 95% CI 1.022-1.102, p = 0.002) all were associated with decreased overall survival following LT. Patients with both ALBI grade 3 (n = 25) and calculated MELD score ≥ 25 had the lowest overall survival (p < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

ALBI grade 3 was related to lower post-LT survival and can be utilized as a tool for risk stratification in LT.

Inequity in organ allocation for patients awaiting liver transplantation: Rationale for uncapping the model for end-stage liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIM

The goal of organ allocation is to distribute a scarce resource equitably to the sickest patients. In the United States, the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) is used to allocate livers for transplantation. Patients with greater MELD scores are at greater risk of death on the waitlist and are prioritized for liver transplant (LT). The MELD is capped at 40 however, and patients with calculated MELD scores >40 are not prioritized despite increased mortality. We aimed to evaluate waitlist and post-transplant survival stratified by MELD to determine outcomes in patients with MELD >40.

METHODS

Using United Network for Organ Sharing data, we identified patients listed for LT from February 2002 through to December 2012. Waitlist candidates with MELD ⩾40 were followed for 30days or until the earliest occurrence of death or transplant.

RESULTS

Of 65,776 waitlisted patients, 3.3% had MELD ⩾40 at registration, and an additional 7.3% had MELD scores increase to ⩾40 after waitlist registration. A total of 30,369 (46.2%) underwent LT, of which 2,615 (8.6%) had MELD ⩾40 at transplant. Compared to MELD 40, the hazard ratio of death within 30days of registration was 1.4 (95% CI 1.2-1.6) for patients with MELD 41-44, 2.6 (95% CI 2.1-3.1) for MELD 45-49, and 5.0 (95% CI 4.1-6.1) for MELD ⩾50. There was no difference in 1- and 3-year survival for patients transplanted with MELD >40 compared to MELD=40. A survival benefit associated with LT was seen as MELD increased above 40.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with MELD >40 have significantly greater waitlist mortality but comparable post-transplant outcomes to patients with MELD=40 and, therefore, should be given priority for LT. Uncapping the MELD will allow more equitable organ distribution aligned with the principle of prioritizing patients most in need. Lay summary: In the United States (US), organs for liver transplantation are allocated by an objective scoring system called the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), which aims to prioritize the sickest patients for transplant. The greater the MELD score, the greater the mortality without liver transplant. The MELD score, however, is artificially capped at 40 and thus actually disadvantages the sickest patients with end-stage liver disease. Analysis of the data advocates uncapping the MELD score to appropriately prioritize the patients most in need of a liver transplant.

Potential use of metabolic breath tests to assess liver disease and prognosis: has the time arrived for routine use in the clinic?

The progression of liver disease may be unique among organ system diseases in that progressive fibrosis compromises not only the sufficiency of hepatocyte mass but also impairs blood flow to the liver, resulting in porto-systemic shunting. Although liver biopsy as an assessment of fibrosis has become the key biomarker of and target for new therapies, it is invasive and subject to sampling error, and cannot quantify metabolic function or porto-systemic shunting. Measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient accommodates some of the deficiencies of biopsy but requires expertise not widely available and misses minor changes in hepatocellular mass and thereby information about metabolic function. Thus, an unmet need in clinical hepatology remains unfulfilled: a noninvasive biomarker which quantitates both the hepatocellular insufficiency and porto-systemic shunting inherent in progressive hepatic fibrosis. Ideally, such a biomarker should correlate with clinical endpoints including liver-related survival and cirrhotic complications, be performed at the point-of-care, and be affordable and easy to use. This review, an expert opinion, summarizes background and recent data suggesting that metabolic breath tests may now meet these requirements and have a valid place in clinical hepatology to supplant the time-honoured assessment of hepatic fibrosis.

Evaluating twenty-years of follow-up after orthotopic liver transplantation, best practice for donor-recipient matching: What can we learn from the past era?

AIM

To characterize major determinants of 20-year survival after liver transplantation (LT).

METHODS

This longitudinal single-institution study includes 313 consecutive patients who received a LT between 1988 and 1992. Pretransplant clinical characteristics and laboratory values were assessed and compared between 20-year survivors and non-survivors. Particular attention was paid to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (labMELD)-score and the Eurotransplant Donor Risk Index (ET-DRI) to unravel their impact on 20-year survival after LT.

RESULTS

Twenty-year survivors were significantly younger (44 vs 50 years, P = 0.001), more likely to be female (49% vs 36%, P = 0.03) and less likely to be obese at the time of LT (19% vs 32%, P = 0.011). Mean labMELD-score (P = 0.156), rate of high-urgency LT (P = 0.210), cold-ischemia time (P = 0.994), rate of retransplantation (P = 0.12) and average donor age (28 vs 33 years, P = 0.099) were not statistically different. The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was higher among survivors (P = 0.007). ET-DRI > 1.4 (P = 0.020) and donor age ≥ 30 years (P < 0.022) had significant influence on 20-year survival. The overall survival was not significantly impacted by labMELD-score categories (P = 0.263).

CONCLUSION

LT offers excellent long-term results in case of optimal donor and recipient conditions. However, mainly due to the current organ shortage, these ideal circumstances are rarely given; thus algorithms for donor-recipient matching need to be refined, in order to enable a maximum benefit for the recipients of high quality as well as marginal organs.

Health-related quality of life and affective status in liver transplant recipients and patients on the waiting list with low MELD scores

BACKGROUND

This study seeks to examine the impact of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) on Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) and mental health in patients with different MELD scores.

METHODS

Patients who has undergone orthotopic liver transplant (OLT) or were on the waiting list for OLT were submitted to HRQoL and depression/anxiety assessment by questionnaire: Short-Form 36 (SF-36), Questions on Life Satisfaction (FLZ-M), Patient Health Questionnaire-4 (PHQ-4). Data were analysed following division of patients into three groups: pretransplant patients with a MELD score <10, ≥10, and OLT recipients.

RESULTS

The surveys were sent to 940 consecutive patients within one week in June 2013. Of these 940 patients, 869 (92.4%) met the inclusion criteria. In total, 291 (33.5%) eligible questionnaires (OLT group: 235, MELD <10: 25; MELD _10: 31) were suitable for analysis. General health (GH), vitality (VIT), and mental health (MH) were lower in both pretransplant groups compared to the OLT group (all p < 0.05). Anxiety and depression were higher in the MELD <10 group than in the OLT group (anxiety: p < 0.05; depression: p < 0.01).

DISCUSSION

Patients with low MELD scores seem to benefit from OLT with regards to HRQoL and mental health.

[Allocation systems in transplantation medicine: Advantages and disadvantages]

Donor organs for transplantations are a scarce commodity; therefore, allocation systems are needed that guarantee an ethically acceptable distribution to patients on the waiting list (equal treatment and fairness) but also take the probability of survival of the transplant in each recipient into consideration. In this article the allocation systems for lung, liver, kidney and pancreas transplants are presented.For lung transplantations an allocation system based on the lung allocation score (LAS) is currently used. The LAS predicts the probability of survival on the waiting list and the survival rate following transplantation. Organs with a limited range of utilization are distributed in a so-called mini-match procedure.For post-mortem kidney and pancreas transplantations a relatively complex but transparent allocation system has been created in which patients are subdivided into groups, each of which has its own allocation rules. The allocation is principally carried out according to criteria of fairness of distribution and according to the prospects of success. The probability of a mismatch also plays a role. The urgency is important for children and for patients who do not have the possibility of dialysis. Combined pancreas and kidney transplantations have priority over kidney transplantations alone.The criterion for the urgency of liver transplantation in Germany is currently the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), which aims to reduce the waiting list mortality and to prioritize transplantations for those most in need. Because the system insufficiently describes the priority of transplantation for patients with tumors or genetic liver diseases, there is an additional set of rules for so-called standard exceptions.

Model for end-stage liver disease score and MELD exceptions: 15 years later

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score has been used as an objective scale of disease severity for management of patients with end-stage liver disease; it currently serves as the basis of an urgency-based organ-allocation policy in several countries. Implementation of the MELD score led to a reduction in waiting-list registration and waiting-list mortality and an increase in the number of deceased-donor transplants without adversely affecting long-term outcomes after liver transplantation (LT). The MELD score has been used for management of non-transplant patients with chronic liver disease. MELD exceptions serve as a mechanism to advance the needs of subsets of patients with liver disease not adequately addressed by MELD-based organ allocation. Several models have been proposed to refine and improve the MELD score as the environment within which it operates continues to evolve toward transplantation for sicker patients. The MELD score continues to serve and be used as a template to improve upon as an objective gauge of disease severity and as a metric enabling optimization of allocation of scarce donor organs for LT.

List and liver transplant survival according to waiting time in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

The time that patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can safely remain on the waiting list for liver transplantation (LT) is unknown. We investigated whether waiting time on the list impacts transplant survival of HCC candidates and transplant recipients. This is a single-center retrospective study of 283 adults with HCC. Patients were divided in groups according to waiting-list time. The main endpoint was survival. The median waiting time for LT was 4.9 months. The dropout rates at 3-, 6-, and 12-months were 6.4%, 12.4%, and 17.7%, respectively. Mortality on the list was 4.8%, but varied depending of the time on the list. Patients who waited less than 3-months had an inferior overall survival when compared to the other groups (p = 0.027). Prolonged time on the list significantly reduced mortality in this analysis (p = 0.02, HR = 0.28). Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score at transplantation did also independently impact overall survival (p = 0.03, HR = 1.06). MELD was the only factor that independently impacted posttransplant survival (p = 0.048, HR = 1.05). We conclude that waiting time had no relation with posttransplant survival. It is beneficial to prolong the waiting list time for HCC candidates without having a negative impact in posttransplant survival.

Personalized adapted physical activity before liver transplantation: acceptability and results

BACKGROUND

Altered aerobic capacity and muscular strength among patients suffering from cirrhosis are poor prognosis factors of the overall survival after liver transplantation (LT). A program of adapted physical activity (APA) is recommended in patients awaiting solid organ transplantation. However, there is no standard program in LT, and therefore none is applied.

METHODS

Prospective pilot study to evaluate the acceptability of a 12-week personalized APA and its impact on aerobic capacity, muscle strength, and quality of life before LT.

RESULTS

Thirteen patients (six men, seven women) were included. Five patients interrupted the program: two for personal convenience, two were transplanted before the end of the program, and one for deterioration of the general condition. Eight patients (mean age, 51 ± 12 years; mean Child Pugh, 7 ± 3; and mean model for end-stage liver disease score, 13 ± 6) completed the program. The mean VO2 peak values increased from 21.5 ± 5.9 mL/kg per min at baseline to 23.2 ± 5.9 mL/kg per min after 12 weeks of training (P<0.008). The maximum power (P=0.02), the 6-min walk distance (P<0.02), the strength testing of knee extensor muscles (P=0.008), and the ventilatory threshold power (P=0.02) were also significantly increased. Quality of life scale showed a global trend to improvement. No adverse event was observed.

CONCLUSION

A personalized and standardized APA is acceptable, effective and safe in patients awaiting LT. It positively influences the index of fitness and quality of life. Its promising impact on the posttransplantation period, duration of hospitalization, and 6-month survival needs to be prospectively evaluated in a large randomized study.

Competition in liver transplantation: helpful or harmful?

Improved outcomes of liver transplantation have led to increases in the numbers of US transplant centers and candidates on the list. The resultant and ever-expanding organ shortage has created competition among centers, especially in regions with multiple liver transplant programs. Multiple reports now document that competition among the country's transplant centers has led to the listing of increasingly high-risk patients and the utilization of more marginal liver allografts. The transplant and medical communities at large should carefully re-evaluate these practices and promote innovative approaches to restoring trust in the allocation of donor organs and confirming that there is nationwide conformity in the guidelines used for evaluating and listing potential candidates for this scarce resource.

Evolving trends in liver transplantation: listing and liver donor allocation

The success of liver transplantation in the past three decades as a life-saving procedure for patients with end-stage liver disease has led to the ever-increasing disparity between the demands for liver transplantation and the supply of donor liver organs. Donor allocation and distribution remains a challenge and a moral issue as to how these organs can be equitably distributed. This article reviews the evolution of the liver allocation policy and discusses in detail the challenges clinicians face today in this area of medicine.

The MELD system and liver transplant waiting-list mortality in developing countries: lessons learned from São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE

The MELD system has not yet been tested as an allocation tool for liver transplantation in the developing countries. In 2006, MELD (Model for End-stage Liver Disease) was launched as a new liver allocation system in São Paulo, Brazil. This study was designed to assess the results of the new allocation policy on waiting list mortality.

METHODS

The State of São Paulo liver transplant database was retrospectively reviewed from July 2003 through July 2009. Patients were divided into those who were transplanted before (Pre-MELD Group) and those who were transplanted after (post-MELD Group) the implementation of the MELD system. Only adult liver transplant candidates were included. Waiting list mortality was the primary endpoint.

RESULTS

The unadjusted death rate in waiting list decreased significantly after the implementation of the MELD system (from 91.2 to 33.5/1,000 patients per year; p<0.0001). Multivariate analysis showed a significant drop in risk of waiting list death for post-MELD patients (HR 0.34; p<0.0001). Currently, 48% of patients are transplanted within 1-year of listing (versus 23% in the pre-MELD era; p<0.0001). Patient and graft survival did not change with MELD implementation.

CONCLUSION

There was a reduction in waiting time and list mortality after implementation of the MELD system in São Paulo. Patients listed in the post-MELD era had a significant reduction in risk for the waiting list mortality. There were no changes in post-transplant outcomes. MELD can be successfully utilized for liver transplant allocation in developing countries.

Nucleoside analogs prevent disease progression in HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: validation of the TPPM model

PURPOSE

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of entecavir, lamivudine and telbivudine for treating patients with HBV-ACLF and to validate the Tongji prognostic predictor model (TPPM) in these patients.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, we enrolled 283 patients with HBV-ACLF (100 treated with entecavir, 98 treated with lamivudine and 85 treated with telbivudine). There were no significant differences in baseline clinical and virological characteristics among patients treated with entecavir, telbivudine or lamivudine.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in the 4- and 12-week survival rates of entecavir-, telbivudine- and lamivudine-treated patients (79.00, 81.18 and 86.73 %, respectively, at 4 weeks; 67.00, 65.88 and 73.47 %, respectively, at 12 weeks). Patients in all three groups achieved an improvement in the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. Using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the validation of the TPPM score for HBV-ACLF demonstrated a good degree of fit with disease prognosis. Based on this unique group of patients, the TPPM score with an AUC of 0.787 was superior to the MELD score, which had an AUC of 0.736 in the prediction of 12-week mortality. The TPPM had an AUC of 0.733, and the MELD score had an AUC of 0.672 in the prediction of 4-week mortality. Using a cutoff value of 0.22 for 12-week mortality prediction by the TPPM, the positive predictive value was 49.66 %, with a negative predictive value of 89.55 %.

CONCLUSION

Treatment with nucleoside analogs including entecavir, lamivudine and telbivudine prevented disease progression and increased the survival of patients with HBV-ACLF. Validation of the established TPPM scoring system in this study confirmed its superior predictive value for HBV-ACLF patients when compared with the MELD system.

The model for end-stage liver disease score-based system predicts short term mortality better than the current Child-Turcotte-Pugh score-based allocation system during waiting for deceased liver transplantation

To adopt the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score-based system in Korea, the feasibility should be evaluated by analysis of Korean database. The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility of the MELD score-based system compared with the current Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) based-system and to suggest adequate cut-off to stratify waiting list mortality among Korean population. We included 788 adult patients listed in waiting list in Seoul National University Hospital from January 2008 to May 2011. The short-term survival until 6 months after registration was evaluated. Two hundred forty six (31.2%) patients underwent live donor liver transplantation and 353 (44.8%) patients were still waiting and 121 (15.4%) patients were dropped out due to death. Significant difference was observed when MELD score 24 and 31 were used as cut-off. Three-months survival of Status 2A was 70.2%. However, in Status 2A patients whose MELD score less than 24 (n=82), 86.6% of patients survived until 6 month. Furthermore, patients with high MELD score (≥31) among Status 2B group showed poorer survival rate (45.8%, 3-month) than Status 2A group. In conclusion, MELD score-based system can predict short term mortality better and select more number of high risk patients in Korean population.

Low estimated glomerular filtration rate and chronic kidney failure following liver transplant: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients undergoing orthotropic liver transplant (LTx) often present with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Identification of patients who will progress to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) might allow not only the implementation of kidney protective measures but also simultaneous kidney transplant.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study in adults who underwent LTx at a single center. ESRD, death, and composite of ESRD or death were studied outcomes.

RESULTS

331 patients, who underwent LTx, were followed up for 2.6 ± 1.4 years; 31 (10%) developed ESRD, 6 (2%) underwent kidney transplant after LTx and 25 (8%) remained on chronic hemodialysis. Patients with preoperative eGFR lesser than 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 had a 4-fold increased risk of developing ESRD after adjustment for sex, diabetes mellitus, APACHE II score, use of nephrotoxic drugs, and severe liver graft failure (HR = 3.95, 95% CI 1.73, 9.01; p = 0.001). Other independent risk factors for ESRD were preoperative diabetes mellitus and post-operative severe liver graft dysfunction.

CONCLUSION

These findings emphasize low eGFR prior to LTx as a predictor for ESRD or death. The consideration for kidney after liver transplant as a treatment modality should be taken into account for those who develop chronic kidney failure after LTx.

Donor-recipient matching: myths and realities

Liver transplant outcomes keep improving, with refinements of surgical technique, immunosuppression and post-transplant care. However, these excellent results and the limited number of organs available have led to an increasing number of potential recipients with end-stage liver disease worldwide. Deaths on waiting lists have led liver transplant teams maximize every organ offered and used in terms of pre and post-transplant benefit. Donor-recipient (D-R) matching could be defined as the technique to check D-R pairs adequately associated by the presence of the constituents of some patterns from donor and patient variables. D-R matching has been strongly analysed and policies in donor allocation have tried to maximize organ utilization whilst still protecting individual interests. However, D-R matching has been written through trial and error and the development of each new score has been followed by strong discrepancies and controversies. Current allocation systems are based on isolated or combined donor or recipient characteristics. This review intends to analyze current knowledge about D-R matching methods, focusing on three main categories: patient-based policies, donor-based policies and combined donor-recipient systems. All of them lay on three mainstays that support three different concepts of D-R matching: prioritarianism (favouring the worst-off), utilitarianism (maximising total benefit) and social benefit (cost-effectiveness). All of them, with their pros and cons, offer an exciting controversial topic to be discussed. All of them together define D-R matching today, turning into myth what we considered a reality in the past.

Kidney, pancreas and liver allocation and distribution in the United States

Kidney transplant and liver transplant are the treatments of choice for patients with end-stage renal disease and end-stage liver disease, respectively. Pancreas transplant is most commonly performed along with kidney transplant in diabetic end-stage renal disease patients. Despite a steady increase in the numbers of kidney and liver transplants performed each year in the United States, a significant shortage of kidneys and livers available for transplant remains. Organ allocation is the process the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) uses to determine which candidates are offered which deceased donor organs. OPTN is charged with ensuring the effectiveness, efficiency and equity of organ sharing in the national system of organ allocation. The policy has changed incrementally over time in efforts to optimize allocation to meet these often competing goals. This review describes the history, current status and future direction of policies regarding the allocation of abdominal organs for transplant, namely the kidney, liver and pancreas, in the United States.

Increase in mortality rate of liver transplant candidates residing in specific geographic areas: analysis of UNOS data

We sought to evaluate survival of liver transplant candidates living in geographic areas with limited access to specialized transplant centers (TxC). We analyzed survival outcome among candidates listed for liver transplant in United Network of Organ Sharing (UNOS) Region 4 from 2004 to 2010. Candidates were stratified into three groups according to the distance from the patient's residence to the closest hospital with a liver transplant program: Group 1 (Gr 1) <30 miles (m), Group 2 (Gr 2) 30-60 m and Group 3 (Gr 3) >60 m. Of the 5673 patients included in the study, 49% resided >30 m from a TxC. Eight percent of the cohort experienced death or dropped out of the list due to medical condition deterioration, with worse outcomes for Gr 2 and Gr 3 (8.5% and 9.9%, respectively, vs. 6.5% for Gr 1 [p < 0.001]). Among patients with a MELD score <20, mortality was higher in Gr 2 and Gr 3 compared to Gr 1 (p < 0.001). We conclude that for Region 4, the mortality risk in patients living >30 m from a TxC is higher. We suggest that the variable "distance from a TxC" should be used to improve the estimate of the mortality risk for patients on the waiting list.

Trends in liver transplantation 2011

This review will highlight some of the important recent trends in liver transplantation. When possible, we will compare and contrast these trends across various regions of the world, in an effort to improve global consensus and better recognition of emerging data.

A multicenter mortality prediction model for patients receiving prolonged mechanical ventilation

OBJECTIVE

Significant deficiencies exist in the communication of prognosis for patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation after acute illness, in part because of clinician uncertainty about long-term outcomes. We sought to refine a mortality prediction model for patients requiring prolonged ventilation using a multicentered study design.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

Five geographically diverse tertiary care medical centers in the United States (California, Colorado, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Washington).

PATIENTS

Two hundred sixty adult patients who received at least 21 days of mechanical ventilation after acute illness.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

For the probability model, we included age, platelet count, and requirement for vasopressors and/or hemodialysis, each measured on day 21 of mechanical ventilation, in a logistic regression model with 1-yr mortality as the outcome variable. We subsequently modified a simplified prognostic scoring rule (ProVent score) by categorizing the risk variables (age 18-49, 50-64, and ≥65 yrs; platelet count 0-150 and >150; vasopressors; hemodialysis) in another logistic regression model and assigning points to variables according to β coefficient values. Overall mortality at 1 yr was 48%. The area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic curve for the primary ProVent probability model was 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.75-0.81), and the p value for the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic was .89. The area under the curve for the categorical model was 0.77, and the p value for the goodness-of-fit statistic was .34. The area under the curve for the ProVent score was 0.76, and the p value for the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic was .60. For the 50 patients with a ProVent score >2, only one patient was able to be discharged directly home, and 1-yr mortality was 86%.

CONCLUSION

The ProVent probability model is a simple and reproducible model that can accurately identify patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation who are at high risk of 1-yr mortality.

Comparative analysis of outcome in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma exceeding the milan criteria treated with liver transplantation versus partial hepatectomy

INTRODUCTION

Proponents of orthotopic liver transplantation (TXP) for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) advocate expanding the Milan criteria. We performed a matched analysis comparing patients treated with TXP to patients treated with partial hepatectomy (PHX) for HCC exceeding the Milan criteria.

METHODS

From the United Network for Organ Sharing registry, we identified 92 US patients with HCC exceeding the Milan criteria who underwent TXP between 2002 and 2005. During the same period, 94 patients with similar tumor size criteria underwent PHX at a single center. Data were analyzed using χ(2), parametric, nonparametric, and Kaplan-Meier methods.

RESULTS

TXP patients were more commonly male (82% vs. 65%, P=0.01) and had a higher Model for End Stage Liver Disease score (median 11 vs. 7, P<0.001). Pathologic cirrhosis (79% TXP vs. 38% PHX, P<0.001), particularly secondary to hepatitis C virus (29% TXP vs. 5% PHX, P<0.001), was more common among TXP patients. Mean cumulative tumor size was 10.0 cm (63% exceeding University of California at San Francisco criteria) among PHX patients compared with 6.4 cm (20% exceeding University of California at San Francisco criteria) for TXP patients (P<0.001). With a median follow-up of 34 months (range, 1-86), 3-year survival was similar between the cohorts (66%±10% for TXP vs. 66%±10% for PHX, P=0.97). Cancer deaths (26/37, 70%) were more prevalent among PHX patients, whereas noncancer deaths (25/37, 68%) were common in TXP patients (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Among heterogeneous patients with HCC who exceed the Milan criteria, TXP and PHX achieve similar overall survival. Further study is needed to ensure appropriate patient selection for these disparate therapies.

Model for end-stage liver disease: end of the first decade

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is the basis for allocation of liver allografts for transplantation in the United States. The MELD score, as an objective scale of disease severity, is also used in the management of patients with chronic liver disease in the nontransplant setting. Several models have been proposed to improve the MELD score. The authors believe that the MELD score is, by design, continually evolving and lends itself to continued refinement and improvement to serve as a metric to optimize organ allocation in the future.

Epidemiological and clinical features of hepatitis B virus related liver failure in China

AIM: To examine the epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of hepatitis B virus (HBV) related liver failure in patients in China.

METHODS: This study was conducted with a retrospective design to examine 1066 patients with HBV-related liver failure in the southwest of China.

RESULTS: There were more male than female patients. Young and middle-aged people comprised most of the patients. Farmers and laborers comprised the largest proportion (63.09%). Han Chinese accounted for 98.12%, while minority ethnic groups only accounted for 0.88% of patients. A total of 43.47% patients had a family history of HBV-related liver failure and 56.66% patients had a history of drinking alcohol. A total of 42.59% patients with HBV-related liver failure had definite causes. With regard to the clinical manifestation of HBV-related liver failure, the symptoms were: hypodynamia, anorexia and abdominal distension. Total bilirubin (TBIL) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels were altered in 46.23% of patients with evident damage of the liver. Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that the patients’ prognoses were correlated with ALT, aspartate aminotransferase, albumin, TBIL, prothrombin activity (PTA), and alpha-fetoprotein levels, and drinking alcohol, ascites, hepatorenal syndrome, infection and ≥ 2 complications. Multifactor logistic regression analysis showed that the activity of thrombinogen and the number of complications were related to the prognosis.

CONCLUSION: Alcohol influences the patients’ prognosis and condition. PTA and complications are independent factors that can be used for estimating the prognosis of HBV-related liver failure.

Impact of the MELD allocation after its implementation in liver transplantation

OBJECTIVE

On 16 December 2006, most Eurotransplant countries changed waiting time oriented liver allocation policy to the urgency oriented Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) system. There are limited data on the effects of this policy change within the Eurotransplant community.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 154 patients who had undergone deceased donor liver transplantation (LT) were retrospectively analyzed in three time periods: period A (1-year pre-MELD, n = 42) versus period B (1-year post-MELD, n = 52) versus period C (2 years after MELD implementation, n = 60).

RESULTS

The median MELD score at the time of LT increased from 16.3 points in period A to 22.4 and 20.4 in periods B and C, respectively (p = 0.007). Waitlist mortality decreased from 18.4% in period A to 10.4% and 9.4% in periods B and C, respectively (p = 0.015). Three-month mortality did not change significantly (10% each for periods A, B and C). One-year survival was 84% for the MELD 6-19 group compared with 81% in the MELD 20-29 group and 74% in the MELD ≥30 group (p = 0.823). Analyzing MELD score and previously described prognostic scores [i.e. survival after liver transplantation (SALT) score and donor-MELD (D-MELD) score] with regard to 1-year survival, only a high risk SALT score was predictive (p = 0.038). In our center, 2 years after implementation of the MELD system, waitlist mortality decreased, while 90-day mortality did not change significantly.

CONCLUSION

Up to now, only the SALT score proved to be of prognostic relevance post-transplant.

The MELD score in patients awaiting liver transplant: strengths and weaknesses

Adoption of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) to select and prioritize patients for liver transplantation represented a turning point in organ allocation. Prioritization of transplant recipients switched from time accrued on the waiting list to the principle of "sickest first". The MELD score incorporates three simple laboratory parameters (serum creatinine and bilirubin, and INR for prothrombin time) and stratifies patients according to their disease severity in an objective and continuous ranking scale. Concordance statistics have demonstrated its high accuracy in stratifying patients according to their risk of dying in the short-term (three months). Further validations of MELD as a predictor of survival at various temporal end-points have been obtained in independent patient cohorts with a broad spectrum of chronic liver disease. The MELD-based liver graft allocation policy has led to a reduction in waitlist new registrations and mortality, shorter waiting times, and an increase in transplants, without altering overall graft and patient survival rates after transplantation. MELD limitations are related either to the inter-laboratory variability of the parameters included in the score, or to the inability of the formula to predict mortality accurately in specific settings. For some conditions, such as hepatocellular carcinoma, widely accepted MELD corrections have been devised. For others, such as persistent ascites and hyponatremia, attempts to improve MELD's predicting power are currently underway, but await definite validation.

The economic implications of broader sharing of liver allografts

Liver transplantation has evolved over the past four decades into the most effective method to treat end-stage liver failure and one of the most expensive medical technologies available. Accurate understanding of the financial implication of recipient severity of illness is crucial to assessing the economic impact of allocation policies. A novel database of linked clinical data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network with cost accounting data from the University HealthSystem Consortium was used to analyze liver transplant costs for 15,813 liver transplants. This data was then utilized to consider the economic impact of alternative allocation systems designed to increase sharing of liver allografts using simulation results. Transplant costs were strongly associated with recipient severity of illness as assessed by the MELD score (p < 0.0001); however, this relationship was not linear. Simulation analysis of the reallocation of livers from low MELD patients to high MELD using a two-tiered regional sharing approach (MELD 15/25) resulted in 88 fewer deaths annually at estimated cost of $17,056 per quality-adjusted life-year saved. The results suggest that broader sharing of liver allografts offers a cost-effective strategy to reduce the mortality from end stage liver disease.

UK experience of liver transplantation for erythropoietic protoporphyria

Erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) is characterised by excess production of free protoporphyrin from the bone marrow, most commonly due to deficiency of the enzyme ferrochelatase. Excess protoporphyrin gives rise to the cutaneous photosensitivity characteristic of the disease, and in a minority of patients leads to end-stage liver disease necessitating liver transplantation (LT). There is limited information regarding the timing, impact and long-term outcome of LT in such patients, thus we aimed to identify the indications and outcomes of all transplants performed for EPP in the UK using data from the UK Transplant Registry. Between 1987 and 2009, five patients underwent LT for EPP liver disease. Median follow-up was 60 months, and there were two deaths at 44 and 95 months from causes unrelated to liver disease. The remaining recipients are alive at 22.4 years, 61 months and 55 months after transplant. A high rate of postoperative biliary stricturing requiring multiple biliary interventions was observed. Recurrent EPP-liver disease occurred in 4/5 (80%) of patients but graft failure has not been observed. Given the role of biliary obstruction in inducing EPP-mediated liver damage, we suggest that consideration should be given for construction of a Roux loop at the time of transplant. Thus we demonstrate that although EPP liver transplant recipients have a good long-term survival, comparable to patients undergoing LT for other indications, biliary complications and disease recurrence are almost universal, and bone marrow transplantation should be considered where possible.

The interaction among donor characteristics, severity of liver disease, and the cost of liver transplantation

Accurate assessment of the impact of donor quality on liver transplant (LT) costs has been limited by the lack of a large, multicenter study of detailed clinical and economic data. A novel, retrospective database linking information from the University HealthSystem Consortium and the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network registry was analyzed using multivariate regression to determine the relationship between donor quality (assessed through the Donor Risk Index [DRI]), recipient illness severity, and total inpatient costs (transplant and all readmissions) for 1 year following LT. Cost data were available for 9059 LT recipients. Increasing MELD score, higher DRI, simultaneous liver-kidney transplant, female sex, and prior liver transplant were associated with increasing cost of LT (P < 0.05). MELD and DRI interact to synergistically increase the cost of LT (P < 0.05). Donors in the highest DRI quartile added close to $12,000 to the cost of transplantation and nearly $22,000 to posttransplant costs in comparison to the lowest risk donors. Among the individual components of the DRI, donation after cardiac death (increased costs by $20,769 versus brain dead donors) had the greatest impact on transplant costs. Overall, 1-year costs were increased in older donors, minority donors, nationally shared organs, and those with cold ischemic times of 7-13 hours (P < 0.05 for all). In conclusion, donor quality, as measured by the DRI, is an independent predictor of LT costs in the perioperative and postoperative periods. Centers in highly competitive regions that perform transplantation on higher MELD patients with high DRI livers may be particularly affected by the synergistic impact of these factors.

Clinical epidemiological analysis of the mortality rate of liver transplant candidates living in rural areas

MELD score has been used to predict 90-day mortality of subjects listed for liver transplantation (OLT). Validation of MELD score for patients on the waiting list in transplant programmes serving rural areas in North America is lacking. A retrospective cohort of patients affected by end-stage liver disease was studied to assess the mortality rate within 90 days after being listed at our transplant centre. Secondary aims were to identify differences between predicted and observed 90-days mortality using MELD and MELDNa scores at the time of listing. Among 126 patients included in this study, waiting list mortality was 35.0%. Ninety-day mortality was 21.1%, which was significantly greater than the mortality estimated by the MELD (9.1%, 95% CI: 6.6-11.5) and MELDNa (9.3%, 95%CI: 6.0-12.5). Despite this underestimation, AUC for MELD and MELDNa was 0.80 and 0.78 respectively. In our study, independent predictors of waiting list mortality were age, diagnosis of cholestatic disease and residence over 500 km from our transplant centre. MELD and MELDNa underestimated the 90-day mortality in patients with liver failure living in rural areas. Validation of these models should be performed in other transplant centres serving patients with limited access to specialized services.

A fourth dimension in decision making in hepatology

Today, the assessment of liver function in patients suffering from acute or chronic liver disease is based on liver biopsy and blood tests including synthetic function, liver enzymes and viral load, most of which provide only circumstantial evidence as to the degree of hepatic impairment. Most of these tests lack the degree of sensitivity to be useful for follow-up of these patients at the frequency that is needed for decision making in clinical hepatology. Accurate assessment of liver function is essential to determine both short- and long-term prognosis, and for making decisions about liver and non-liver surgery, TIPS, chemoembolization or radiofrequency ablation in patients with chronic liver disease. Liver function tests can serve as the basis for accurate decision-making regarding the need for liver transplantation in the setting of acute failure or in patients with chronic liver disease. The liver metabolic breath test relies on measuring exhaled (13) C tagged methacetin, which is metabolized only by the liver. Measuring this liver-specific substrate by means of molecular correlation spectroscopy is a rapid, non-invasive method for assessing liver function at the point-of-care. The (13) C methacetin breath test (MBT) is a powerful tool to aid clinical hepatologists in bedside decision-making. Our recent findings regarding the ability of point-of-care (13) C MBT to assess the hepatic functional reserve in patients with acute and chronic liver disease are reviewed along with suggested treatment algorithms for common liver disorders.

Multicentric evaluation of model for end-stage liver disease-based allocation and survival after liver transplantation in Germany--limitations of the 'sickest first'-concept

Since the introduction of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in 2006, post-orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) survival in Germany has declined. The aim of this study was to evaluate risk factors and prognostic scores for outcome. All adult OLT recipients in seven German transplant centers after MELD implementation (December 2006-December 2007) were included. Recipient data were analyzed for their influence on 1-year outcome. A total of 462 patients (mean calculated MELD = 20.5, follow-up: 1 year) were transplanted for alcoholic cirrhosis (33.1%), hepatocellular carcinoma (26.6%), Hepatitis-C (17.1%), Hepatitis-B (9.5%), primary sclerosing cholangitis (5.6%) and late graft-failure after first OLT before December 2006 (8.7%). 1-year patient survival was 75.8% (graft survival 71.2%) correlating with MELD parameters and serum choline esterase. MELD score >30 [odds ratio (OR) = 4.17, confidence interval: 2.57-6.78, 12-month survival = 52.6%, c-statistic = 0.669], hyponatremia (OR = 2.07), and pre-OLT hemodialysis (OR = 2.35) were the main death risk factors. In alcoholic cirrhosis (n = 153, mean MELD = 21.1) and hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 123, mean MELD = 13.5), serum bilirubin and the survival after liver transplantation score were independent outcome parameters, respectively. MELD >30 currently represents a major risk factor for outcome. Risk factors differ in individual patient subgroups. In the current German practice of organ allocation to sicker patients, outcome prediction should be considered to prevent results below acceptable standards.

Identifying a targeted population at high risk for infections after liver transplantation in the MELD era

Impact of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system on post-transplant infections and associated risk factors are unknown. Infections <90 d post-transplant were assessed in 277 consecutive liver transplant recipients from 1999 to 2008. "High-risk" factors for infections were pre-defined as MELD score >30, ICU stay >48 h prior to transplant, intraoperative transfusion ≥15 units, retransplantation, post-transplant dialysis, or reoperation. Of the 240 recipients in the MELD era (2002-2008), 48.5% had any high-risk factor. The OR for infection was 1.69, 2.00, 18.00, and 4.50 in recipients with any 1, 2, 3, and ≥4 high-risk factors, respectively (χ(2) for trend, p < 0.001). In logistic regression model, recipient age (OR 1.12, p < 0.05) and any high-risk factor (OR 2.42, p < 0.05) were associated with infections. Compared with 37 pre-MELD recipients, the overall infections and mortality at 12 months did not differ in the two eras. In Cox regression model, recipient age (OR 1.09, p < 0.05) and any high-risk factor (OR 2.42, p < 0.05) remained associated with infections. The overall frequency of infections did not increase in the MELD era. Pre-defined risk factors accurately predicted the risk of infections in these patients.

Assessment of liver function in acute or chronic liver disease by the methacetin breath test: a tool for decision making in clinical hepatology

Patients suffering from acute or chronic liver disease require on-going assessment of disease progression in terms of the degree of hepatic fibrosis and overall liver impairment. This assessment is pivotal for determining the prognosis and for making decisions about medical treatment and liver transplantation. Currently available methods are either invasive, lack diagnostic accuracy or are limited by technical difficulties such as obesity or biochemical confounders. The metabolic breath test relies on the measurement of tagged metabolites of an organ-specific substrate in the exhaled breath. (13)C-methacetin is metabolized uniquely by the liver, and (13)CO(2) is measured continuously in the exhaled breath. Measuring this liver-specific substrate using molecular correlation spectroscopy provides a rapid, point-of-care, non-invasive method to assess liver function. The use of the (13)C-methacetin breath test (MBT) may provide a powerful tool for clinical hepatologists in decision making at the bedside. This paper reviews recent findings regarding the ability of the point-of-care (13)C-MBT to assess fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatic functional reserve in patients with acute and chronic liver disease.

Allocation priority in non-urgent liver transplantation: An overview of proposed scoring systems

Given the lack of donors, a correct organ allocation system for candidates to liver transplantation is essential to increase graft and patient survival. The most used organ allocation tools are Child-Turcotte-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease. It is generally accepted that model for end-stage liver disease score is superior to the Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification in predicting the short-term survival of cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. Since 2002, model for end-stage liver disease is widely used for liver allocation. In recent years, to overcome limitations of the consolidated scores, some adjustments to the original model for end-stage liver disease formula and new scoring systems have been proposed. Published data suggest that integrating serum sodium and model for end-stage liver disease may improve the score prognostic accuracy but further studies are necessary to confirm this issue. The updated model for end-stage liver disease, obtained through a revision of traditional model for end-stage liver disease parameters and tested in a large cohort of patients, is of great interest at the moment. In conclusion, several scoring systems have been described for organ allocation, but today, none is definitely able to overcome the limitations of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease systems.

Liver transplantation cost in the model for end-stage liver disease era: looking beyond the transplant admission

We examined the relationship between the total cost incurred by liver transplantation (LT) recipients and their Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score at the time of transplant. We used a novel database linking billing claims from a large private payer with the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network registry. Included were adults who underwent LT from March 2002 through August 2007 (n = 990). Claims within the year preceding and following transplantation were analyzed according to the recipient's calculated MELD score. Cost was the primary endpoint and was assessed by the length of stay and charges. Transplant admission charges represented approximately 50% of the total cost of LT. MELD was a significant cost driver for pretransplant, transplant, and total charges. A MELD score of 28 to 40 was associated with additional charges of $349,213 (P < 0.05) in comparison with a score of 15 to 20. Pretransplant and transplant admission charges were higher by $152,819 (P < 0.05) and $64,286 (P < 0.05), respectively, in this higher MELD group. No differences by MELD score were found for posttransplant charges. Those in the highest MELD group also experienced longer hospital stays both in the pretransplant period and at the time of LT but did not have higher rates of re-admissions. In conclusion, high-MELD patients incur significantly higher costs prior to and at the time of LT. Following LT, the MELD score is not a significant predictor of cost or re-admission.

[Liver transplantation: indications and results]

After around 64,000 transplantations in Europe since 1988 liver transplantation has emerged as a standard treatment option for otherwise incurable chronic liver diseases. Cirrhosis of different etiologies represents the most frequent transplant indication. Overall survival in this group amounts to 72% after 5 years, and 62% after 10 years. In Germany, the main indications include alcoholic liver cirrhosis, tumors with increasing numbers in recent years, as well as viral diseases leading to cirrhosis. Since December 2006 the priority for liver transplantation is determined by the model for end stage liver disease (MELD) and not by the length of waiting time. MELD is a statistical model based on serum creatinine, serum bilirubin and coagulation, which describes the probability of 3-month mortality of a potential transplant candidate. Not all liver diseases are adequately represented by MELD necessitating the additional use of a defined number of standard exceptions that have been last updated in 2008. As a consequence of these developments indications, selection of recipients and the management of the waiting list have seen profound change.