Targeted decrease of portal hepatic pressure gradient improves ascites control after TIPS

Bayesian network-based survival prediction model for patients having undergone post-transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt for portal hypertension

BACKGROUND

Portal hypertension (PHT), primarily induced by cirrhosis, manifests severe symptoms impacting patient survival. Although transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a critical intervention for managing PHT, it carries risks like hepatic encephalopathy, thus affecting patient survival prognosis. To our knowledge, existing prognostic models for post-TIPS survival in patients with PHT fail to account for the interplay among and collective impact of various prognostic factors on outcomes. Consequently, the development of an innovative modeling approach is essential to address this limitation.

AIM

To develop and validate a Bayesian network (BN)-based survival prediction model for patients with cirrhosis-induced PHT having undergone TIPS.

METHODS

The clinical data of 393 patients with cirrhosis-induced PHT who underwent TIPS surgery at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between January 2015 and May 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Variables were selected using Cox and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression methods, and a BN-based model was established and evaluated to predict survival in patients having undergone TIPS surgery for PHT.

RESULTS

Variable selection revealed the following as key factors impacting survival: age, ascites, hypertension, indications for TIPS, postoperative portal vein pressure (post-PVP), aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, total bilirubin, prealbumin, the Child-Pugh grade, and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. Based on the above-mentioned variables, a BN-based 2-year survival prognostic prediction model was constructed, which identified the following factors to be directly linked to the survival time: age, ascites, indications for TIPS, concurrent hypertension, post-PVP, the Child-Pugh grade, and the MELD score. The Bayesian information criterion was 3589.04, and 10-fold cross-validation indicated an average log-likelihood loss of 5.55 with a standard deviation of 0.16. The model's accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score were 0.90, 0.92, 0.97, and 0.95 respectively, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve being 0.72.

CONCLUSION

This study successfully developed a BN-based survival prediction model with good predictive capabilities. It offers valuable insights for treatment strategies and prognostic evaluations in patients having undergone TIPS surgery for PHT.

Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt: Devices Evolution, Technical Tips and Future Perspectives

Portal hypertension (PH) constitutes a pivotal factor in the progression of cirrhosis, giving rise to severe complications and a diminished survival rate. The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure has undergone significant evolution, with advancements in stent technology assuming a central role in managing PH-related complications. This review aims to outline the progression of TIPS and emphasizes the significant influence of stent advancement on its effectiveness. Initially, the use of bare metal stents (BMSs) was limited due to frequent dysfunction. However, the advent of expanding polytetrafluoroethylene-covered stent grafts (ePTFE-SGs) heralded a transformative era, greatly enhancing patency rates. Further innovation culminated in the creation of ePTFE-SGs with controlled expansion, enabling precise adjustment of TIPS diameters. Comparative analyses demonstrated the superiority of ePTFE-SGs over BMSs, resulting in improved patency, fewer complications, and higher survival rates. Additional technical findings highlight the importance of central stent placement and adequate stent length, as well as the use of smaller calibers to reduce the risk of shunt-related complications. However, improving TIPS through technical means alone is inadequate for optimizing patient outcomes. An extensive understanding of hemodynamic, cardiac, and systemic factors is required to predict outcomes and tailor a personalized approach. Looking forward, the ongoing progress in SG technology, paired with the control of clinical factors that can impact outcomes, holds the promise of reshaping the management of PH-related complications in cirrhosis.