Joint modeling of forced vital capacity measures with time to onset of polycythemia among chronic obstructive pulmonary outpatients follows-up: A case of University of Gondar Referral Hospital

Modelling the longitudinal measurement of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease outpatient follow-up in the northwestern Ethiopia

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is a condition which can be prevented and treated and is characterized by difficulty of breathing that is not entirely curable. The overall objective of this study was to model the variation of longitudinal measurement over time for outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases at the University of Gondar referral hospital. From February 1, 2019, to February 1, 2022, a retrospective study of outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was conducted in a hospital. The data was extracted from all patients' data records from the patient's chart. The information includes the fundamental demographic and clinical details of each outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Mixed linear model were used to investigate the determinant factor of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. From a total of 266 outpatients, Averages of the ratio of forced expiratory volume to forced vital capacity among chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients were 0.65, with a standard deviation of 0.043. Comorbidities (average = 2.18, 95% CI 0.43:3.9, P = 0.0133), HIV(average = 4.83, 95% CI 1.94:7.72, P = 0.0012), education (average = 2.98; 95% CI 0.75:4.8, P = 0.008), and weight (average = 0.178, 95% CI 0.045:0.311, P = 0.009) are risk factors for change in forced vital capacity. This study clearly shows that there is a high COPD prevalence in Ethiopia. The risk factors for chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases are the smoking status, comorbidities, HIV, education status of the patient, weight, and time of the visit.