Utility of Web search query data in testing theoretical assumptions about mephedrone

Drug regulations and trafficking: Synthetic cannabinoids and cathinones in Hungary

In principle, new psychoactive substances (NPSs) are produced to circumvent drug regulations. However, the mixed success of regulatory efforts suggests that the dynamics of marketing is incompletely understood. To address this issue, we conducted a comprehensive study on the marketing of all synthetic cannabinoids and cathinones present in Hungary over ten years. Market evaluation was based on drug seizure data and chemical analyses provided by the Hungarian Institute for Forensic Sciences. Over ten years, 18 synthetic cannabinoids and 11 cathinones were identified. Total seizure counts were 22,906 and 10,273, respectively. When new synthetic cannabinoids emerged, seizures increased exponentially, but rapidly declined after their banning. In parallel, new synthetic cannabinoids emerged on the market. The systematic monitoring of local legislation allowed large sales between market introduction and legal control. Cathinones were also marketed in successive waves, but trading intensity was not associated with local regulations. Sales remained low throughout, likely because the risks involved by the temporal mismatch between marketing and legal control. One can hypothesize that marketing was driven by general trends in EU regulations or by measures taken by large countries. Our findings imply the existence of two different strategies for NPS marketing. The choice between the two may depend on multiple factors from the availability of skills required by rapid marketing adjustments to cost/benefit evaluations for various market segments. Studying NPS market strategies in neighboring and distant EU countries may help analyzing and predicting market events.

Predicting the Number of GHB-Related Toxicologic Admissions Using Google Trends Data

In the era of novel psychoactive substances (NPS), the internet became a relevant source of information and purchase for those who consume psychoactive drugs. Parallelly, a growing body of research aim to utilize web search metrics (most commonly by relying on Google Trends data) in the prediction of substance use-related trends, including epidemiological forecasting. The main goal of the current study was to assess the utility of web search queries in the prediction of Gamma-hydroxybutyrate (GHB)-related toxicologic admissions in Hungary by performing additive decomposition of time series to identify trend and seasonal components. Monthly data identified GHB-related search volume representing nationwide web interest towards this substance was found to be a significant covariate of admission rates; the seasonal component showed two peaks in the admission rates: one in December/January and another one in May, whereas more admissions on the weekends were observed as compared to weekday data in Hungary. By taking into account the subtle effect sizes of this study, these results suggest that Google Trends data may be useful in forecasting toxicologic admissions on a monthly level, yet a number of limitations should be considered when interpreting these associations. Web search metrics can therefore be used for early warning purposes in the field of toxicology as well. An external validation approach is also suggested by the authors.