Egypt's Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge: Present and Future Conditions

Anthropogenic-induced environmental and ecological changes in the Nile Delta over the past half-century

Anthropogenic activities over the past half-century have had a negative impact on the wetland ecosystem in the Nile Delta, which provides essential provisioning and regulating services. Therefore, it is crucial to systematically investigate pollution levels and their ecological consequences at both spatial and temporal scales in order to promote sustainable development. In this study, data on metal pollution in the Manzala Lake were compiled through a systematic review of all published literature from 1968 to 2020. Additionally, agricultural data (including land use, pesticide and fertilizer usage, and discharge) and economic data for the same time period were collected to identify the main drivers of pollution. The results indicated an overall increasing trend in heavy metal concentrations during the study period. The average concentrations of metals, arranged in descending order, were as follows: Fe (15,115.5 μg/g) > Mn (722 μg/g) > Zn (115.4 μg/g) > Cu (65.9 μg/g) > Ni (62.5 μg/g) > Cr (58.1 μg/g) > Pb (54.1 μg/g) > Cd (4.7 μg/g) > Hg (0.1 μg/g). A linear regression model revealed that wastewater discharge, water reuse, and the use of pesticides and fertilizers are the main sources of heavy metal pollution in the Manzala Lake. Consequently, there has been a dramatic decrease in the biodiversity of fish and molluscan communities. The study also found a correlation between heavy metal pollution and socio-economic development, highlighting the urgent need for attention to the conservation, management, and sustainable development of the lake.

Ecosystem services at risk in Italy from coastal inundation under extreme sea level scenarios up to 2050: A spatially resolved approach supporting climate change adaptation

According to the latest projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, at the end of the century, coastal zones and low-lying ecosystems will be increasingly threatened by rising global mean sea levels. In order to support integrated coastal zone management and advance the basic "source-pathway-receptor-consequence" approach focused on traditional receptors (e.g., population, infrastructure, and economy), a novel risk framework is proposed able to evaluate potential risks of loss or degradation of ecosystem services (ESs) due to projected extreme sea level scenarios in the Italian coast. Three risk scenarios for the reference period (1969-2010) and future time frame up to 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are developed by integrating extreme water-level projections related to changing climate conditions, with vulnerability information about the topography, distance from coastlines, and presence of artificial protections. A risk assessment is then performed considering the potential effects of the spatial-temporal variability of inundations and land use on the supply level and spatial distribution of ESs. The results of the analysis are summarized into a spatially explicit risk index, useful to rank coastal areas more prone to ESs losses or degradation due to coastal inundation at the national scale. Overall, the Northern Adriatic coast is scored at high risk of ESs loss or degradation in the future scenario. Other small coastal strips with medium risk scores are the Eastern Puglia coast, Western Sardinia, and Tuscany's coast. The ESs Coastal Risk Index provides an easy-to-understand screening assessment that could support the prioritization of areas for coastal adaptation at the national scale. Moreover, this index allows the direct evaluation of the public value of ecosystems and supports more effective territorial planning and environmental management decisions. In particular, it could support the mainstreaming of ecosystem-based approaches (e.g., ecological engineering and green infrastructures) to mitigate the risks of climate change and extreme events while protecting ecosystems and biodiversity. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1564-1577. © 2021 SETAC.

Development of a Multi-Dimensional Coastal Vulnerability Index: Assessing vulnerability to inundation scenarios in the Italian coast

Understanding how natural and human-induced drivers will contribute to rising vulnerability and risks in coastal areas requires a broader use of future projections capturing the spatio-temporal dynamics which drive changes in the different vulnerability dimensions, including the socio-demographic and economic spheres. To go beyond the traditional approaches for coastal vulnerability appraisal, a Multi-dimensional Coastal Vulnerability Index (MDim-CVI) - integrating a composite set of physical, environmental and socio-economic indicators - is proposed to rank Italian coastal provinces according to their relative vulnerability to extreme sea level scenarios, in 2050. Specifically, information on hazard-prone areas, potentially inundated by sea level rise and extreme water levels (under the RCP8.5 climate scenario) is combined with indicators of geomorphic vulnerability (e.g. elevation, distance from coastline, shoreline evolution trend) exposure, and adaptive capacity (e.g. sensible segments of the population, GDP, land use patterns). The methodology is applied to a reference timeframe, representing current climate and land use condition, and a future scenario for the year 2050, integrating both climate projections and data simulating potential evolution of the environmental and socio-economic systems. Results show that most vulnerable provinces are located in the North Adriatic, the Gargano area and other Southern parts of Italy, mostly due to the very high vulnerability scores reported by climate-related indicators (e.g. extreme sea level). The number of vulnerable provinces as well as the magnitude of vulnerability is expected to increase in the future due to the worsening of climate, environmental, and socio-economic conditions (e.g. land use variations and increase of the elderly population). These outcomes can timely inform integrated coastal zone management and support climate adaptation planning.

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Impacts: Innovation and Improvement of the Local Urban Plan for a Climate-Proof Adaptation Strategy

In recent years, the territorial impacts connected to sea level rise have prompted a reflection on the responsibilities of policy makers in transposing these issues into urban agendas. The need also emerged to both broaden and update the skills of urban planners and to improve territorial governance tools, with the aim of developing feasible regeneration and resilience strategies to face climate change. In this paper, a methodology for the production of Flood Risk Maps is presented, as applied to the Municipality of Ravenna, Italy, by only considering the static component of inundation hazard, i.e., the projected Mean Sea Level Rise, as a first step towards increased preparedness. The resulting Flood Risk Maps represent, in fact, an innovation with respect to the current cognitive framework that supports local urban planning, by providing information on a potential risk that has so far been overlooked. The method combines sea level rise projections under the pessimistic RCP8.5 scenario with georeferenced territorial data, aiming to identify the physical consistency of the urban-structure components which are potentially at risk. For successive time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2100), our results show the progressive impairment and potential degradation of extensive urban areas that are disregarded in the urban planning regulations currently in force. This preliminary evaluation phase is aimed at prompting and supporting the necessary updating of the planning tools and regulations adopted by the public bodies responsible for territorial governance, by identifying priority areas for intervention, and helping define mitigation and adaptation actions.