ARPEGES: A Bayesian Belief Network to Assess the Risk of Pesticide Contamination for the River Network of France

Transferability of a Bayesian Belief Network across diverse agricultural catchments using high-frequency hydrochemistry and land management data

Biogeochemical catchment models are often developed for a single catchment and, as a result, often generalize poorly beyond this. Evaluating their transferability is an important step in improving their predictive power and application range. We assess the transferability of a recently developed Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) that simulated monthly stream phosphorus (P) concentrations in a poorly-drained grassland catchment through application to three further catchments with different hydrological regimes and agricultural land uses. In all catchments, flow and turbidity were measured sub-hourly from 2009 to 2016 and supplemented with 400-500 soil P test measurements. In addition to a previously parameterized BBN, five further model structures were implemented to incorporate in a stepwise way: in-stream P removal using expert elicitation, additional groundwater P stores and delivery, and the presence or absence of septic tank treatment, and, in one case, Sewage Treatment Works. Model performance was tested through comparison of predicted and observed total reactive P (TRP) concentrations and percentage bias (PBIAS). The original BBN accurately simulated the absolute values of observed flow and TRP concentrations in the poorly and moderately drained catchments (albeit with poor apparent percentage bias scores; 76 % ≤ PBIAS≤94 %) irrespective of the dominant land use, but performed less well in the groundwater-dominated catchments. However, including groundwater total dissolved P (TDP) and Sewage Treatment Works (STWs) inputs, and in-stream P uptake improved model performance (-5 % ≤ PBIAS≤18 %). A sensitivity analysis identified redundant variables further helping to streamline the model applications. An enhanced BBN model capable for wider application and generalisation resulted.

Stochastic modelling of pesticide transport to drinking water sources via runoff and resulting human health risk assessment

A modelling framework was developed to facilitate a probabilistic assessment of health risks posed by pesticide exposure via drinking water due to runoff, with the inclusion of influential site conditions and in-stream processes. A Monte-Carlo based approach was utilised to account for the inherent variability in pesticide and population properties, as well as site and climatic conditions. The framework presented in this study was developed with an ability to integrate different data sources and adapt the model for various scenarios and locations to meet the users' needs. The results from this model can be used by farm advisors and catchment managers to identify lower risk pesticides for use for given soil and site conditions and implement risk mitigation measures to protect water resources. Pesticide concentrations in surface water, and their risk of regulatory threshold exceedances, were simulated for fifteen pesticides in an Irish case study. The predicted concentrations in surface water were then used to quantify the level of health risk posed to Irish adults and children. The analysis indicated that herbicides triclopyr and MCPA occur in the greatest concentrations in surface water, while mecoprop was associated with the highest potential for health risks. The study found that the modelled pesticides posed little risk to human health under current application patterns and climatic conditions in Ireland using international acceptable intake values. A sensitivity study conducted examined the impact seasonal conditions, timing of application, and instream processes, have on the transport of pesticides to drinking water.

Integrating climate model projections into environmental risk assessment: A probabilistic modeling approach

The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) convened a Pellston workshop in 2022 to examine how information on climate change could be better incorporated into the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process for chemicals as well as other environmental stressors. A major impetus for this workshop is that climate change can affect components of ecological risks in multiple direct and indirect ways, including the use patterns and environmental exposure pathways of chemical stressors such as pesticides, the toxicity of chemicals in receiving environments, and the vulnerability of species of concern related to habitat quality and use. This article explores a modeling approach for integrating climate model projections into the assessment of near- and long-term ecological risks, developed in collaboration with climate scientists. State-of-the-art global climate modeling and downscaling techniques may enable climate projections at scales appropriate for the study area. It is, however, also important to realize the limitations of individual global climate models and make use of climate model ensembles represented by statistical properties. Here, we present a probabilistic modeling approach aiming to combine projected climatic variables as well as the associated uncertainties from climate model ensembles in conjunction with ERA pathways. We draw upon three examples of ERA that utilized Bayesian networks for this purpose and that also represent methodological advancements for better prediction of future risks to ecosystems. We envision that the modeling approach developed from this international collaboration will contribute to better assessment and management of risks from chemical stressors in a changing climate. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:367-383. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

In silico environmental risk assessment improves efficiency for pesticide safety management

Pesticides are indispensable to maintain crop quality and food production worldwide, but their use also poses environmental risks. Pesticide risk assessment involves a series of complex, expensive and time-consuming toxicity tests. To improve the efficiency and accuracy for assessing the environmental impact of pesticides, numerous computational tools have been developed. However, there is a notable deficiency in critical analysis or a systematic summary of environmental risk assessment tools and their applicable contexts. Here, many of the current approaches and tools for assessing environmental risks posed by pesticides are reviewed, and the question of whether these tools are fit for use on complex multicomponent scenarios is discussed. We analyze the adaptations of these tools to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, followed by the provision of resources for predicting pesticide concentrations in environmental medias, including air, soil and water. The successful application of computational tools for risk assessment and interpretation of predicted results will also be discussed. This assessment serves as a valuable resource, enabling scientists to utilize suitable models to enhance the robustness of pesticides risk assessments.

Influence of climate change and pesticide use practices on the ecological risks of pesticides in a protected Mediterranean wetland: A Bayesian network approach

Pollution by agricultural pesticides is one of the most important pressures affecting Mediterranean coastal wetlands. Pesticide risks are expected to be influenced by climate change, which will result in an increase of temperatures and a decrease in annual precipitation. On the other hand, pesticide dosages are expected to change given the increase in pest resistance and the implementation of environmental policies like the European ´Farm-to-Fork` strategy, which aims for a 50 % reduction in pesticide usage by 2030. The influence of climate change and pesticide use practices on the ecological risks of pesticides needs to be evaluated making use of realistic environmental scenarios. This study investigates how different climate change and pesticide use practices affect the ecological risks of pesticides in the Albufera Natural Park (Valencia, Spain), a protected Mediterranean coastal wetland. We performed a probabilistic risk assessment for nine pesticides applied in rice production using three climatic scenarios (for the years 2008, 2050 and 2100), three pesticide dosage regimes (the recommended dose, and 50 % increase and 50 % decrease), and their combinations. The scenarios were used to simulate pesticide exposure concentrations in the water column of the rice paddies using the RICEWQ model. Pesticide effects were characterized using acute and chronic Species Sensitivity Distributions built with toxicity data for aquatic organisms. Risk quotients were calculated as probability distributions making use of Bayesian networks. Our results show that future climate projections will influence exposure concentrations for some of the studied pesticides, yielding higher dissipation and lower exposure in scenarios dominated by an increase of temperatures, and higher exposure peaks in scenarios where heavy precipitation events occur right after pesticide application. Our case study shows that pesticides such as azoxystrobin, difenoconazole and MCPA are posing unacceptable ecological risks for aquatic organisms, and that the implementation of the ´Farm-to-Fork` strategy is crucial to reduce them.

Nano-based smart formulations: A potential solution to the hazardous effects of pesticide on the environment

Inefficient usage, overdose, and post-application losses of conventional pesticides have resulted in severe ecological and environmental issues, such as pesticide resistance, environmental contamination, and soil degradation. Advances in nano-based smart formulations are promising novel methods to decrease the hazardous impacts of pesticide on the environment. In light of the lack of a systematic and critical summary of these aspects, this work has been structured to critically assess the roles and specific mechanisms of smart nanoformulations (NFs) in mitigating the adverse impacts of pesticide on the environment, along with an evaluation of their final environmental fate, safety, and application prospects. Our study provides a novel perspective for a better understanding of the potential functions of smart NFs in reducing environmental pollution. Additionally, this study offers meaningful information for the safe and effective use of these nanoproducts in field applications in the near future.

Integrating Bayesian Belief Networks in a toolbox for decision support on plastic clean-up technologies in rivers and estuaries

Current mitigation strategies to offset marine plastic pollution, a global concern, typically rely on preventing floating debris from reaching coastal ecosystems. Specifically, clean-up technologies are designed to collect plastics by removing debris from the aquatic environment such as rivers and estuaries. However, to date, there is little published data on their potential impact on riverine and estuarine organisms and ecosystems. Multiple parameters might play a role in the chances of biota and organic debris being unintentionally caught within a mechanical clean-up system, but their exact contribution to a potential impact is unknown. Here, we identified four clusters of parameters that can potentially determine the bycatch: (i) the environmental conditions in which the clean-up system is deployed, (ii) the traits of the biota the system interacts with, (iii) the traits of plastic items present in the system, and, (iv) the design and operation of the clean-up mechanism itself. To efficiently quantify and assess the influence of each of the clusters on bycatch, we suggest the use of transparent and objective tools. In particular, we discuss the use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) as a promising probabilistic modelling method for an evidence-based trade-off between removal efficiency and bycatch. We argue that BBN probabilistic models are a valuable tool to assist stakeholders, prior to the deployment of any clean-up technology, in selecting the best-suited mechanism to collect floating plastic debris while managing potential adverse effects on the ecosystem.

Bayesian Networks in Environmental Risk Assessment: A Review

Human activities both depend upon and have consequences on the environment. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a process of estimating the probability and consequences of the adverse effects of human activities and other stressors on the environment. Bayesian networks (BNs) can synthesize different types of knowledge and explicitly account for the probabilities of different scenarios, therefore offering a useful tool for ERA. Their use in formal ERA practice has not been evaluated, however, despite their increasing popularity in environmental modeling. This paper reviews the use of BNs in ERA based on peer-reviewed publications. Following a systematic mapping protocol, we identified studies in which BNs have been used in an environmental risk context and evaluated the scope, technical aspects, and use of the models and their results. The review shows that BNs have been applied in ERA, particularly in recent years, and that there is room to develop both the model implementation and participatory modeling practices. Based on this review and the authors' experience, we outline general guidelines and development ideas for using BNs in ERA. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:62-78. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Increased Use of Bayesian Network Models Has Improved Environmental Risk Assessments

Environmental and ecological risk assessments are defined as the process for evaluating the likelihood that the environment may be impacted as a result of exposure to stressors. Although this definition implies the calculation of probabilities, risk assessments traditionally rely on nonprobabilistic methods such as calculation of a risk quotient. Bayesian network (BN) models are a tool for probabilistic and causal modeling, increasingly used in many fields of environmental science. Bayesian networks are defined as directed acyclic graphs where the causal relationships and the associated uncertainty are quantified in conditional probability tables. Bayesian networks inherently incorporate uncertainty and can integrate a variety of information types, including expert elicitation. During the last 2 decades, there has been a steady increase in reports on BN applications in environmental risk assessment and management. At recent annual meetings of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) North America and SETAC Europe, a number of applications of BN models were presented along with new theoretical developments. Likewise, recent meetings of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) have dedicated sessions to Bayesian modeling in relation to water quality. This special series contains 10 articles based on presentations in these sessions, reflecting a range of BN applications to systems, ranging from cells and populations to watersheds and national scale. The articles report on recent progress in many topics, including climate and management scenarios, ecological and socioeconomic endpoints, machine learning, diagnostic inference, and model evaluation. They demonstrate that BNs can be adapted to established conceptual frameworks used to support environmental risk assessments, such as adverse outcome pathways and the relative risk model. The contributions from EGU demonstrate recent advancements in areas such as spatial (geographic information system [GIS]-based) and temporal (dynamic) BN modeling. In conclusion, this special series supports the prediction that increased use of Bayesian network models will improve environmental risk assessments. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:53-61. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).