A method to estimate mortality trends when death certificates are imprecisely coded: An application to cervical cancer in Italy

Cervical cancer prevention: An Italian scenario between organised screening and human papillomaviruses vaccination

We aimed to assess the cervical cancer burden and performance of screening programme over the last decade in Apulia, Italy. Data from Hospital Discharge, Causes of Death and of Outpatient Services registries were analysed to estimate the disease burden, and data collected by the screening information system were used to evaluate the performance of the programme. We computed annual hospitalisation, incidence and mortality rates and number of outpatient services prescriptions for the follow-up of preneoplastic/neoplastic lesions. Indicators as proposed by the National Centre for Screening Monitoring were computed to describe the screening performance. Hospitalisation rates declined from 47 in 2001 to 28 per 100,000 in 2014, incidence from 10.3 in 2004 to 6.0 per 100,000 in 2014 and mortality from 1.4 in 2001 to 1.0 per 100,000 in 2010. Prescriptions increased from 3,333 in 2006 to 4,968 in 2010, then decreased to 3,634/year in 2012-2014. Actual extension of screening increased from 10.8% in 2007 to 62% in 2014; compliance with the invitation was 32%/year. In the last decade, we observed a reduction in the cervical cancer burden as early effect of screening implementation.

Estimates of cancer burden in Basilicata and Calabria

Aims and background

Basilicata and Calabria are two neighboring, low income regions of southern peninsular Italy with an overall population of about 2.5 million in 2010. Cancer registration has covered the entire Basilicata population since 2005 and the province of Catanzaro (18.3% of the Calabria population) since 2003. This paper will provide estimates and projections for the period 1970—2015 of the basic epidemiological indicators — incidence, prevalence and mortality — in the Basilicata and Calabria regions for the major cancers (lung, colon and rectum, stomach, skin melanoma, breast, cervix and prostate).

Methods

The indicators were estimated by applying the MIAMOD statistical back-calculation method to the 1970—2002 official mortality data, and to the 1985—2002 relative survival data collected by population-based registries of the southern regions of Italy.

Results

The incidence rates were estimated to be still rising for breast, prostate and colorectal cancer, and for skin melanoma in men. By contrast, they were estimated to be declining for cervix and stomach cancer. The incidence increased, reaching a peak, and subsequently decreased for lung cancer in men and for skin melanoma in women. The age-standardized mortality rates were estimated to decrease for all considered cancers except prostate cancer in men and lung cancer in women, which presented quite stable mortality rates from the mid 2000s onwards. Except for cervix cancer, prevalence was increasing for all considered cancers, particularly those of the breast and prostate.

Conclusion

These data support the need for health policies focused on primary and secondary prevention, which is the main way to reduce the overall impact of cancer and to preserve health care resources, as well as on actions aimed at ensuring equal access to cancer care and at transferring innovation into clinical practice.

Trends in Cervical Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania

Objective

The burden of cervical cancer varies considerably in the European Union. In this paper, we describe trends in incidence of and mortality from this cancer in the five most affected member states.

Methods

Data on number of deaths from uterine cancers and the size of the female population of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Romania were extracted from the WHO mortality database. Mortality rates were corrected for inaccuracies in the death certification of not otherwise specified uterine cancer. Incidence data were obtained from the national cancer registries. Joinpoint regression was used to study the annual variation of corrected and standardized incidence and mortality rates. Changes by birth cohort were assessed for specific age groups and subsequently synthesized by computing standardized cohort incidence/mortality ratios.

Results

Joinpoint regression revealed rising trends of incidence (in Lithuania, Bulgaria and Romania) and of mortality (in Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Romania). In Estonia, rates were rather stable. Women born between 1940 and 1960 were at continuously increasing risk of both incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer.

Conclusions

Rising trends of cervical cancer in the most affected EU member states reveal a worrying pattern that warrants urgent introduction of effective preventive actions as described in the European guidelines.

Estimates of cancer burden in Veneto

Aims and background

In Veneto a regional cancer registry has been operating since 1987 which provides incidence and survival data for the region. It currently covers 48% of the regional population. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence, mortality and prevalence of the major cancers for the whole Veneto region in the period 1970—2015.

Methods

The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries.

Results

In 2012 the most frequent cancer sites were colon-rectum, prostate and breast with 4,677, 3,760 and 3,729 new diagnosed cases, respectively. The incidence rates were estimated to increase constantly for female lung cancer, prostate cancer, colorectal cancer and melanoma, while they were decreasing for cervical cancer and stomach cancer. For male lung cancer and female breast cancer the rates increased, reaching a peak, and then decreased. In the last years of the period of analysis, mortality declined for all cancers: the highest number of deaths (2,390 in both sexes) was estimated for lung cancer in 2012. Prevalence was increasing for all the considered cancer sites with the exception of lung cancer in men, for which the prevalence was estimated to increase until 2007 and then stabilize. By contrast, the cervical cancer decreased during the whole period. In 2012 breast cancer had the highest prevalence, with about 52,000 cases.

Conclusion

This paper provides a description of the burden of the major cancers in Veneto until 2015. The estimates highlight the continuing reduction of cancer mortality. This decline can be related to the improvement of clinical treatments and to multidisciplinary treatment approaches. In order for this positive trend to continue, implementation and reinforcement of the screening programs is needed, especially for breast and colorectal cancer.

Estimates of cancer burden in Piedmont and Aosta Valley

Aims and background

Cancer registration in Piedmont currently covers the city of Turin and the province of Biella, together representing 24% of the regional population. The objective of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence and mortality rates and prevalence proportions for cancer of the lung, breast, cervix, prostate, colon-rectum and stomach and melanoma of the skin for 2012 and the time trends up to 2015 for the Piedmont and Aosta Valley regions.

Methods

The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were modeled in order to estimate the regional cancer survival. The MIAMOD estimates were also compared with those obtained by applying a method based on the mortality-incidence and prevalence-incidence ratios.

Results

The most frequently diagnosed cancers in absolute terms were prostate, colorectal, breast and lung cancer with about 5,000, 4,700, 3,300, and 2,900 new cases, respectively, in 2012. Incidence rates were rising for melanoma in both sexes and lung cancer in women, while they diminished for cervical and stomach cancer. For prostate cancer and male lung cancer the rates initially increased but were estimated to decrease in the most recent period. Colorectal cancer also increased up to the 1990s but was estimated to reach a plateau in the final years of estimation. Prevalence increased for all the considered cancers with the exception of cervical cancer. Mortality was declining for all considered cancers with the exception of lung cancer in women.

Conclusions

Monitoring indicators of the cancer burden is crucial for setting priorities among possible health system activities in a limited-resource setting. Piedmont has long invested in organized, population-based screening programs: these will have to be extended and accompanied by greater efforts in primary prevention.

Estimates of cancer burden in Sardinia

Aims and background

Cancer registration in Sardinia covers 43% of the population and started in 1992 in the Sassari province. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence, mortality and prevalence of seven major cancers for the entire region in the period 1970—2015.

Methods

The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Estimates were compared with the available observed data.

Results

In 2012 the lowest incidence was estimated for stomach cancer and melanoma among men, with 140 and 74 new cases, respectively, per 100,000. The mortality rates were highest for lung cancer and were very close to the incidence rates (77 and 95 per 100,000, respectively). In women, breast was by far the most frequent cancer site both in terms of incidence (1,512 new cases) and mortality (295 deaths), followed by colon-rectum (493 cases and 201 deaths), lung (205 cases and 167 deaths), melanoma (106 cases and 15 deaths), stomach (82 cases and 61 deaths), and uterine cervix (36 cases and 19 deaths). The highest prevalence was estimated for breast cancer (15,180 cases), followed by colorectal cancer with about 7,300 prevalent cases in both sexes.

Conclusion

This paper provides a description of the burden of the major cancers in Sardinia until 2015. The comparisons between the estimated age-standardized incidence rates and those observed in the Sassari registry indicate good agreement. The estimates show a general decrease in cancer mortality, with the exception of female lung cancer. By contrast, the prevalence is steeply increasing for all considered cancers (with the only exception of cancer of the uterine cervix). This points to the need for more strongly supporting evidence-based prevention campaigns focused on contrasting female smoking, unhealthy nutrition and sun exposure.

Estimates of cancer burden in Campania

Aims and background

In Campania two cancer registries have been operating since 1996, covering part of the province of Naples and the province of Salerno, and amounting to 29% of the regional population. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence, mortality and prevalence of seven major cancers for the entire Campania region.

Methods

The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries.

Results

In 2012 the most frequent cancers were colorectal, breast and lung cancer with 3,969, 3,675 and 3,629 new diagnosed cases, respectively. The cancers with increasing incidence trends were breast cancer, lung cancer and skin melanoma in women, and colorectal cancer and skin melanoma in men. By contrast, the incidence rates of uterine cervix cancer and stomach cancer were decreasing. In men the lung and prostate cancer incidence rates increased, reaching a peak in different periods, and then decreased and stabilized, respectively. Prevalence was increasing for all considered cancers with the exception of cervical cancer. The highest values in 2012 were estimated for breast and colorectal cancer (34,000 and 22,000 prevalent cases, respectively). In the final period under study there was a decline in mortality for all cancers except female lung cancer. The highest crude mortality rates in 2012 were estimated for lung cancer in men and breast cancer in women: 80 and 31 per 100,000, respectively.

Conclusion

This paper provides a description of the burden of the major cancers in Campania until 2015. The estimates highlight the need to reinforce organized screening, especially for breast and colorectal cancer, and to support evidence-based prevention campaigns against female smoking. All these aspects require continuous and updated monitoring of the main epidemiological indicators in the Campania population.

Estimates of cancer burden in Puglia

Aims and background

A regional population-based cancer registry that provides incidence and survival data has become active only recently. Since it is important to know the time trends of basic epidemiological indicators to understand the cancer burden in the region, this paper will provide incidence, prevalence and mortality estimates in the region for seven major cancers for the period 1970—2015.

Methods

The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries.

Results

The incidence rates are estimated to be still increasing for female breast cancer, colorectal cancer in men and skin melanoma in both sexes. By contrast, the incidence rates indicate a decreasing trend for cervix uteri cancer and stomach cancer, the latter both in men and women. For these cancers an analogous trend is observed for mortality, confirming the reduction of the risk factors related to these cancer types. The incidence rates for lung cancer and prostate cancer in men were estimated to rise, reach a peak, and then decrease in the last part of the considered period. Prevalence increased for all the considered cancers except cervix cancer. The increase was striking for breast cancer and less pronounced for stomach cancer in both genders.

Conclusion

This paper provides a description of the burden of the major cancers until 2015. The results highlight the need to reinforce effective preventive measures to contrast cancers related to an unhealthy lifestyle and to increase the compliance with organized screening programs to reduce the colorectal and breast cancer burden.

Disparities in time trends of cervical cancer mortality rates in Brazil

PURPOSE

This study aimed to correct and describe cervical cancer mortality rates and trends by regions and age-groups in Brazil. It may help planning and implementing policies for cervical cancer control.

METHODS

Data from 2003 to 2012 were accessed through the centralized national mortality database. Correction of the age-specific mortality rates was done by proportional redistribution of ill-defined causes of death and deaths coded as 'uterine, part unspecified'. Annual percentage change (APC) was obtained by trend analysis (Joinpoint regression).

RESULTS

In the 10-year period, cancer and ill-defined causes corresponded, respectively, to 18.9 and 10.8 % of all deaths (except injuries). The proportion of ill-defined causes was reduced by more than a half in the period. The age-standardized cervical cancer mortality rate was 7.2 per 100,000 women-years after correction. The total increase in rates after corrections was 50.5 %. A significant decreasing trend in rates was observed at the national level (APC = -0.17, p < 0.001). North was the only region that did not show a decreasing significant trend (APC + 0.07, p = 0.28). Decreasing trends were restricted to age-groups over 40 years.

CONCLUSIONS

A consistent decreasing trend of cervical cancer mortality rates in Brazil from 2003 to 2012 was observed, although this was not consistent in all regions and restricted to older age-groups. Quality of data needs to be improved. Cancer control policies may consider the differences in access to care and the characteristics of regions to improve their efficiency.

A comparison between Pap and HPV screening tests and screening methods

The present study assesses the results of cervical cancer (CC) screening over two 3-year periods (2008-2010 and 2011-2013) by comparing two screening tests [Papanicolaou (Pap) and human papillomavirus (HPV) tests] and two screening methods (organized and spontaneous). The study population includes women aged 25-64 years who underwent CC screening between 2008 and 2010 and/or 2011 and 2013, divided into those who responded to an invitation letter (organized screening) and those who spontaneously underwent testing at a public or private facility (non-programmed screening). Between 2008 and 2010, the response rates increased from 27.7% in 2008 to 44.5% in 2009 and 67.6% in 2010 (P<0.001). Women aged 25-34 years had the lowest response rate, whereas respondents were more frequent among women aged 35-44 and 45-54 years. Significant differences (P<0.001) were identified between organized and spontaneous screening test results with regard to diagnostic categories high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (50.5 vs. 49.5%), low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (42.8 vs. 57.2%) and undetermined lesion atypical glandular cells (AGC; 57.5 vs. 42.5%) or atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US; 54.2 vs. 45.8%). Compared with spontaneous screening, the organized programme resulted in a larger number of women screened for CC; it reduced the frequency of undetermined diagnoses (AGC, ASC-US), and identified a larger number of high-grade lesions.

Quality measurement and benchmarking of HPV vaccination services: a new approach

BACKGROUND

A new measurement process based upon a well-defined mathematical model was applied to evaluate the quality of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination centers in 3 of 12 Local Health Units (ASLs) within the Lazio Region of Italy. The quality aspects considered for evaluation were communicational efficiency, organizational efficiency and comfort.

RESULTS

The overall maximum achievable value was 86.10%, while the HPV vaccination quality scores for ASL1, ASL2 and ASL3 were 73.07%, 71.08%, and 67.21%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

With this new approach it is possible to represent the probabilistic reasoning of a stakeholder who evaluates the quality of a healthcare provider. All ASLs had margins for improvements and optimal quality results can be assessed in terms of better performance conditions, confirming the relationship between the resulting quality scores and HPV vaccination coverage.

METHODS

The measurement process was structured into three steps and involved four stakeholder categories: doctors, nurses, parents and vaccinated women. In Step 1, questionnaires were administered to collect different stakeholders' points of view (i.e., subjective data) that were elaborated to obtain the best and worst performance conditions when delivering a healthcare service. Step 2 of the process involved the gathering of performance data during the service delivery (i.e., objective data collection). Step 3 of the process involved the elaboration of all data: subjective data from step 1 are used to define a "standard" to test objective data from step 2. This entire process led to the creation of a set of scorecards. Benchmarking is presented as a result of the probabilistic meaning of the evaluated scores.

Estimates of cancer burden in Trentino-Alto Adige

Aims and background

The Trentino-Alto Adige region is composed of two autonomous provinces (Trento and Bolzano), each with its own cancer registry. The registries' total coverage is 100% of the regional population. The main difference between the two provinces in terms of cancer epidemiology is related to the prostate cancer incidence and survival, with higher values in Bolzano. This paper provides an update until 2015 of the basic epidemiological indicators for seven major cancers for the entire region.

Methods

The indicators were estimated by means of the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Mortality data were provided by ISTAT for the period 1970—2002 while survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries.

Results

The estimates for 2012 show that breast cancer was the most common cancer in women and prostate cancer was most common in men. Incidence and mortality were decreasing for cervix cancer and stomach cancer in both genders during the whole study period. The lung cancer incidence and mortality were decreasing in men but increasing in women. The colorectal cancer incidence rose in both genders while the mortality was decreasing in women. The incidence of skin melanoma increased in both sexes, while the mortality remained very low. The breast cancer incidence was increasing up to 2015 while the mortality was declining since 1986. The prostate cancer incidence increased up to 2006, thereafter the rates stabilized while mortality started to decrease in the early 2000s. The highest mortality rates were estimated for lung cancer in men and breast cancer in women.

Conclusions

Lifestyle plays an important role in cancer trends, as does organized screening for early detection of cervix, breast and colorectal cancer. The provincial data on risk factor distribution and adherence to and coverage of organized screening are satisfactory and their optimization may allow additional benefits in terms of public health.

Estimates of cancer burden in Tuscany

Aims and background

The Tuscan cancer registry has been operating since 1985, providing cancer incidence and survival data in Tuscany; it covers about 33% of the regional population. The purpose of this paper is to provide incidence, prevalence and mortality estimates for the major cancers in the whole Tuscany region for the period 1970—2015.

Methods

The estimated figures were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method. Starting from mortality and survival data, incidence and prevalence were derived using a statistical back-calculation approach. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries.

Results

According to the estimates, the most frequent cancer sites were colon-rectum in both genders, prostate in men and breast in women, with 4,188, 3,082 and 3,092 new diagnoses, respectively, in 2012. The incidence rates were steadily increasing for lung cancer in women and melanoma in both sexes, while they were decreasing for uterine cervix cancer in women, lung cancer in men and stomach cancer in both sexes. For colorectal cancer a small reduction in incidence was estimated for both sexes in recent years. The incidence rates for prostate cancer, after a steep increase and subsequent stabilization, were estimated to increase slightly in the last years. The breast cancer incidence was estimated to stabilize in the last 10 years. The mortality trends were decreasing for all considered cancers except female lung cancer. Prevalence increased for most of the studied cancers except stomach cancer in both sexes, lung cancer in men and cervix cancer in women. The highest prevalence was estimated for breast cancer, with over 42,000 cases in 2012.

Conclusion

This paper provides an updated description of the cancer burden in Tuscany until 2015. These trends will have a significant impact on the regional health services and it is therefore important to enhance both primary prevention, for reducing the cancer incidence, and oncological surveillance, for evaluating the care and assistance of cancer patients.

Estimates of cancer burden in Lazio

Aims and background

Since 1983 a population-based cancer registry has been operating in Lazio which provides incidence and survival data and covers the entire Latina province, amounting to 10% of the regional population. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence, mortality and prevalence for seven major cancers in the Lazio region for the period 1970—2015.

Methods

The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries.

Results

In 2012 the most frequent cancer sites were breast, colon-rectum and prostate with 5,529, 5,315 and 4,759 new diagnosed cases, respectively. The cancers with increasing incidence trends were breast cancer, lung cancer and skin melanoma in women, and prostate cancer, colorectal cancer and melanoma in men. The incidence rates of uterine cervix and stomach cancer decreased. The male lung cancer rates increased, reaching a peak in the late 1980s, and then decreased. Prevalence increased for all the considered cancers except cervix cancer. In 2012 breast, colorectal and prostate cancer had the highest prevalence, with 68,239, 36,617 and 33,934 prevalent cases, respectively. In the final period of the study the mortality declined for all cancers except female lung cancer. In 2012, the highest mortality rates were estimated for lung cancer in both men and women, with 89 and 40 deaths per 100,000, respectively.

Conclusion

These estimates give a useful description of the present and future cancer patterns in the Lazio region. Incidence, mortality and prevalence projections provide new information for health resource planning. Furthermore, they point to the need to reinforce the organized screening programs, especially for breast and colorectal cancer.

Estimates of cancer burden in Liguria

Aims and background

The regional health care system of Liguria caters for a resident population which is among the oldest in Europe. One population-based cancer registry is present in the region, providing incidence and survival data for the Genoa province (covering 55% of the regional population). This paper will estimate the incidence, prevalence and mortality in the Liguria region for cancers of the lung, breast, prostate, colon-rectum, stomach and uterine cervix and melanoma of the skin in 1970—2015.

Methods

The estimated figures were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method. Starting from mortality and survival data, incidence and prevalence were derived using a statistical back-calculation approach. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries. The MIAMOD method was applied also to estimate the colorectal cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence rates in the Ligurian provinces in the period 1988—2015.

Results

In 2012 about 1,500 new cases of breast cancer were expected in Ligurian women. The estimates for the other cancer sites were considerably lower, ranging from 839 (colon-rectum) to 54 (cervix). In men about 1,400 new cases were estimated for prostate cancer, while the incidence for the other sites ranged from 1,118 (colon-rectum) to 208 (skin melanoma). The breast cancer prevalence rate was more than 10 times the incidence rate in women, and the lung cancer prevalence rate was more than double the incidence rate in both sexes. Mortality rates were highest for lung cancer in men and breast cancer in women; the lowest rates were estimated for melanoma and cancer of the uterine cervix.

Conclusion

In Liguria a large portion of the health expenditure has been devoted to diagnostic and therapeutic resources. This may have contributed to the reduction of mortality rates and to the improvement of cancer survival. This phenomenon, added to population aging, will inflate the cancer prevalence. One of the major challenges for the Liguria region is to face the increasing demand for oncology services.

Estimates of cancer burden in Lombardy

Aims and background

Cancer registration in Lombardy covers almost half of the regional population and started in 1976 in the Varese province. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence, mortality and prevalence of seven major cancers for the entire Lombardy region in the period 1970—2015.

Methods

The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were modeled in order to estimate the regional cancer survival.

Results

In Lombardy, about 9,000 new cases of breast cancer, 8,500 of colorectal cancer, 7,200 of prostate cancer and 6,700 of lung cancer were expected to be diagnosed in the year 2012. Incidence rates are still rising for female breast cancer, skin melanoma in both sexes, and lung cancer in women. By contrast, the rates have been declining for cervix and stomach cancer. For lung cancer in men, prostate cancer and colorectal cancer the rates increased, reaching a peak in different periods, and then decreased. Prevalence increased for all cancers considered except cervix cancer. The rise was less pronounced in stomach cancer due to the impressive reduction of its incidence and was striking for breast and prostate cancer, with 116,000 and 58,900 prevalent cases in 2012. Mortality dropped for all considered cancers with the only exception of lung cancer in women.

Conclusion

This up-to-date picture of the cancer risk and burden in Lombardy shows the increasing demand for oncology services as one of the major challenges for the region. However, primary prevention is still the only way to simultaneously reduce incidence, prevalence and mortality rates, thus saving further lives and preserving health resources.

Estimates of cancer burden in Marche

Aims and background

The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence, mortality and prevalence of seven major cancers in the Marche region for the period 1970—2015.

Methods

The MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach, was applied to derive incidence and prevalence figures from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were used as the basis for survival modeling.

Results

Colorectal, breast and prostate cancer were the most frequent cancers in 2012, with 1,563, 1,215 and 1,191 estimated incident cases, and leading to 539, 224 and 228 deaths, respectively. Age-standardized rates were estimated to decrease for stomach and cervical cancer and to increase for skin melanoma and female lung cancer. In men, the lung cancer incidence rates reached their maximum level during the late 1980s and decreased thereafter. The colorectal cancer trend showed an initially increasing pattern, followed by a decrease in the last decade, both for men and women. The estimated incidence rates of prostate cancer presented a very steep rise in the period 1985—2002 and then remained stable at the high levels reached in 2003. The largest increases in prevalence were for breast, colorectal and prostate cancer, for which 17,098, 11,844 and 9,269 cases were estimated, respectively, in 2012.

Conclusion

This paper provides a description of the burden of the major cancers in the Marche region until 2015. The estimates were fairly consistent with previously published data by the Macerata province cancer registry. The MIAMOD method provides a picture of the impressive increase in the prevalence of breast cancer and prostate cancer over the period studied, thereby allowing to foresee an increasing demand for cancer care services as one of the major challenges for the regional health care system.

Estimates of cancer burden in Umbria

Aims and background

Model-based estimates and projections of epidemiological indicators related to cancer are important tools to support public health policies and planning. The aim of the present study is to produce projections of cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence for the Umbria region (900,000 inhabitants) in central Italy.

Methods

The estimations were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were modeled in order to estimate regional cancer survival. Estimated incidence rates were validated with observed incidence rates obtained from the Umbria regional cancer registry.

Results

The most frequent cancer sites estimated were colon-rectum, prostate and breast in women, with 970, 615 and 729 new diagnoses, respectively, in 2012. The incidence rates were increasing for female lung cancer, male colorectal cancer, and melanoma. By contrast, the rates have been declining for cervix and stomach cancer. For lung cancer and prostate cancer in men and colorectal cancer in women the rates increased, reaching a peak in different periods, and then decreased. The incidence rates of breast cancer rose, reaching a plateau in the mid 2010s. Favorable mortality trends were predicted for all cancers except skin melanoma and lung cancer in women. The prevalence of cancer was increasing with the only exception of cervical cancer in women and lung cancer in men in the most recent estimation period.

Conclusion

The scenario found for cancer incidence and prevalence was largely influenced by screening activities, so that increasing or stable incidence rates may reflect active preventive efforts. Aging, screening, and more complex and costly treatments pose a problem of sustainability and selection of interventions to the regional oncology system. Evaluation of effectiveness of intervention and cost-benefit analyses will be important to ensure cancer control in the future.

Estimates of cancer burden in Sicily

Aims and background

Estimates are complementary epidemiological measures which allow to present data on cancer burden, especially in geographical areas where measurements of cancer occurrence are not supported by exhaustive statistics on incidence, mortality and survival. The aim of this paper is to provide cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence estimates and projections for the major cancers in the period 1970—2015 for the entire region of Sicily.

Methods

The estimates were computed by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were modeled in order to estimate the regional cancer survival.

Results

In 2012 the most common cancers were breast cancer in women, colorectal cancer in both sexes, and prostate cancer in men, with about 4,000, 3,500 and 3,000 estimated new cases, respectively. The highest crude mortality rates were estimated for lung cancer in men (63.6 per 100,000) and breast cancer in women (30.8 per 100,000) and the lowest for skin melanoma (both sexes) and cancer of the cervix uteri. For colorectal, lung and stomach cancer and skin melanoma, all the indicators were higher in men than women. The prevalence figures in women were more than 9 times the incidence figures for breast cancer and more than 10 times the incidence figures for skin melanoma. The prevalence was twice the incidence for lung cancer in both sexes. The prevalence increased for all the considered cancers except cervical cancer.

Conclusion

According to our analyses in Sicily we expect about 14,000 new diagnoses and 5,500 deaths for the major cancer types in a year, while about 92,000 persons with a diagnosis of the considered cancers were alive in 2012. We expect an increase in cancer survival and contemporary aging of the population: both expectations will inflate the cancer prevalence, causing more demand for oncology facilities.

Estimates of cancer burden in Emilia-Romagna

Aims and background

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of midterm epidemiological trends for the major cancer sites in the Emilia-Romagna region of northern Italy (population 4,400,000).

Methods

The MIAMOD method, a back-calculation approach to estimate and project the incidence of chronic diseases from mortality and patient survival, was used for the estimation of incidence and prevalence by calendar year (from 1970 to 2015) and age (from 0 to 99). Survival estimates were taken from cancer registries of northeastern Italy.

Results

The estimated incidence of stomach cancer decreased by approximately 75% for both sexes. Trends in incidence of colorectal cancer differed between males and females. For females, the rate increased moderately until the year 2000 with a slow decrease thereafter, whereas the male colorectal cancer incidence showed a regular increase until 2010 followed by a substantial leveling off. Among males the lung cancer incidence and mortality rates showed a steep increase until the late 1980s and a rapid decrease thereafter. Among females, the trends were increasing over the entire study period. The estimated incidence of female breast cancer rose sharply between 1970 and 2001, but from that year onwards a slightly decreasing trend was observed. Mortality peaked in 1988 and has fallen since. The incidence of prostate cancer showed a 3-fold increase. After 2005, the rate is expected to stabilize. Among females, the estimated prevalence increased for breast cancer (52,700 cases expected in 2015), colorectal cancer, lung cancer and melanoma, while decreasing for stomach cancer and cervical cancer. Among males, the estimates showed an upward trend for prostate cancer (32,100 cases expected in 2015) and colorectal cancer, and a leveling off for lung cancer after 2010.

Conclusion

The estimates were fairly consistent with previous data from several epidemiological sources. The MIAMOD method provided a picture of the impressive increase in the prevalence of breast cancer and prostate cancer over the 45-year period studied.

Cancer estimates up to 2015 in Friuli Venezia Giulia

Aims and background

This analysis intended to estimate the incidence, mortality and prevalence time trends for the major cancer sites up to 2015 in the Friuli Venezia Giulia region, northeastern Italy, where a population-based cancer registry has been covering the whole area since 1995.

Methods

The MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach, was applied to estimate incidence, mortality and prevalence figures, in the period 1970—2015, using mortality data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics and relative survival data from Italian cancer registries.

Results

We estimated that the cancer sites with the highest incidence rates in the forthcoming years will be breast in women (with an age-standardized incidence rate of 130 per 100,000 in 2015), prostate in men (97 per 100,000) and colon-rectum in both sexes (85 and 42 per 100,000 in men and women, respectively). The incidence rates for lung cancer will continue to decrease only in men (down to 43 per 100,000 in 2015). Although the decline in the mortality rates of lung, breast and colorectal cancers is likely to persist, these tumors will remain the big killers in the near future. The number of people living in Friuli Venezia Giulia after a cancer diagnosis is expected to continue to rise in particular for breast cancer (with a crude prevalence of 3,000 per 100,000 women in 2015), prostate cancer (1,700 per 100,000 men) and colorectal cancer (1,100 and 800 per 100,000 in men and women, respectively).

Conclusion

These estimates confirmed the epidemiological patterns in time trends of major cancer sites recorded in Friuli Venezia Giulia. They highlighted in particular the increasing number of people living after a cancer diagnosis as a result of population aging, earlier diagnosis and better prognosis, which warrants adequate public health policies.

Estimates of cancer burden in Abruzzo and Molise

Aims and background

Abruzzo and Molise are two regions located in the south of Italy, currently without population-based cancer registries. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence for the Abruzzo and Molise regions combined.

Methods

The MIAMOD method, a back-calculation approach to estimate and project the incidence of chronic diseases from mortality and patient survival, was used for the estimation of incidence and prevalence by calendar year (from 1970 to 2015) and age (from 0 to 99). The survival estimates are based on cancer registry data of southern Italy.

Results

The most frequently diagnosed cancers were those of the colon and rectum, breast and prostate, with 1,394, 1,341 and 698 new diagnosed cases, respectively, estimated in 2012. Incidence rates were estimated to increase constantly for female breast cancer, colorectal cancer in men and melanoma in both sexes. For prostate cancer and male lung cancer, the incidence rates increased, reaching a peak, and then decreased. In women the incidence of colorectal and lung cancer stabilized after an initial increase. For stomach and cervical cancers, the incidence rates showed a constant decrease. Prevalence was increasing for all the considered cancer sites with the exception of the cervix uteri. The highest prevalence values were estimated for breast and colorectal cancer with about 12,300 and over 8,200 cases in 2012, respectively. In the 2000s the mortality rates declined for all cancers except skin melanoma and female lung cancer, for which the mortality was almost stable.

Conclusion

This paper provides a description of the burden of the major cancers in Abruzzo and Molise until 2015. The increase in cancer survival, added to population aging, will inflate the cancer prevalence. In order to better evaluate the cancer burden in the two regions, it would be important to implement cancer registration.