Is the risk of childhood leukaemia associated with socioeconomic measures in Denmark? A nationwide register-based case-control study

Incidence of childhood leukemia before and after shut down of nuclear power plants in Germany in 2011: A population-based register study during 2004 to 2019

The association between leukemia and proximity to nuclear-power-plants (NPPs) has been assessed in several countries with inconsistent results. A case-control study from Germany had shown an increased risk for childhood leukemia (diagnoses 1980-2003) near NPPs. Germany began shutting down nuclear reactors in 2011, following the Fukushima disaster. We tested whether the previously observed association between leukemia and proximity to NPP persisted despite the shutdown. We used an ecological study design to investigate the incidence of leukemia during 2004 to 2019 in children aged 0 to 14 years living near NPPs where at least one reactor was shut down in 2011. We defined study and control areas as municipalities whose surface area was at least 75% within 10 km or between 10 and 50 km of NPPs, respectively. We calculated age-standardized rates and incidence rate ratios (IRR) using control-areas as the reference. We also computed standardized incidence ratios (SIR) separately for each NPP using incidence rates of the German population as a reference. IRR decreased from 1.20 (95% confidence interval: 0.81-1.77) in 2004 to 2011 to 1.12 (0.75-1.68) in 2012 to 2019. Analyses of single plants showed an excess of childhood leukemia during 2004 to 2019 for the Unterweser-NPP, based only on three cases, and the Krümmel-NPP (n = 14; SIR: 1.98, 1.17-3.35). We found slightly decreasing of leukemia incidence rate ratios after the shutdown of nuclear reactors in 2011. Due to the small number of cases, risk estimates have large uncertainty. Further research including a longer follow-up is warranted. The consistent excess of incidence cases around Krümmel may require analytical epidemiological analysis.

Neighborhood Deprivation, Indoor Chemical Concentrations, and Spatial Risk for Childhood Leukemia

Leukemia is the most common childhood cancer in industrialized countries, and the increasing incidence trends in the US suggest that environmental exposures play a role in its etiology. Neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) has been found to be associated with many health outcomes, including childhood leukemia. In this paper, we used a Bayesian index model approach to estimate a neighborhood deprivation index (NDI) in the analysis of childhood leukemia in a population-based case-control study (diagnosed 1999 to 2006) in northern and central California, with direct indoor measurements of many chemicals for 277 cases and 306 controls <8 years of age. We considered spatial random effects in the Bayesian index model approach to identify any areas of significantly elevated risk not explained by neighborhood deprivation or individual covariates, and assessed if groups of indoor chemicals would explain any elevated spatial risk areas. Due to not all eligible cases and controls participating in the study, we conducted a simulation study to add non-participants to evaluate the impact of potential selection bias when estimating NDI effects and spatial risk. The results in the crude model showed an odds ratio (OR) of 1.06 and 95% credible interval (CI) of (0.98, 1.15) for a one unit increase in the NDI, but the association became slightly inverse when adjusting for individual level covariates in the observed data (OR = 0.97 and 95% CI: 0.87, 1.07), as well as when using simulated data (average OR = 0.98 and 95% CI: 0.91, 1.05). We found a significant spatial risk of childhood leukemia after adjusting for NDI and individual-level covariates in two counties, but the area of elevated risk was partly explained by selection bias in simulation studies that included more participating controls in areas of lower SES. The area of elevated risk was explained when including chemicals measured inside the home, and insecticides and herbicides had greater effects for the risk area than the overall study. In summary, the consideration of exposures and variables at different levels from multiple sources, as well as potential selection bias, are important for explaining the observed spatial areas of elevated risk and effect estimates.

28-year incidence and time trends of childhood leukaemia in former East Germany compared to West Germany after German reunification: A study from the German Childhood Cancer Registry

BACKGROUND

The aetiology of childhood leukaemia is largely unknown. Analyses of geographical differences may enhance aetiologic insights. The reunification of Germany in 1990 provides a unique opportunity to evaluate incidence patterns and time trends in two merging countries with substantial lifestyle, social and socioeconomic differences. With this study we provide an extensive assessment of 28-year incidence patterns and temporal trends after the German reunification.

METHODS

We identified all children diagnosed with a lymphoid leukaemia (LL) or acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) before the age of 15 years between 1991 and 2018 using the German Childhood Cancer Registry (N = 14,922), and evaluated the incidence pattern and temporal trends in former East Germany compared to West Germany by subtype, age at diagnosis and sex.

RESULTS

Incidence rates of LL were substantially lower (around 20 %) in Eastern Germany compared to Western Germany at the time of reunification. This was followed by a remarkable increase in Eastern Germany across both sexes and age groups until around 2000, when incidence rates reached the same levels as those in Western German federal states. Thereafter, incidence rates remained rather stable with some indications of a slightly decreasing tendency in both Eastern and Western Germany (estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) 2005-2018: East Germany = -0.8 %; West Germany = -0.4 %), driven by the 0- to 4-year olds. Overall, AML incidence rates were stable over time in Western Germany, while EAPC for Eastern Germany indicated an increasing tendency (EAPC 1991-2018 = 1.3 %) driven by the older children, mostly during the early 2000s and in most recent years.

CONCLUSION

The underlying mechanisms driving the childhood leukaemia rates remain inconclusive. Linkage studies including individual and clinical data would be valuable in evaluating the impact of a population's social, socioeconomic and lifestyle changes on the risk of childhood leukaemia and disease aetiology overall.