1
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Csizi KS, Steiner M, Reiher M. Nanoscale chemical reaction exploration with a quantum magnifying glass. Nat Commun 2024; 15:5320. [PMID: 38909029 PMCID: PMC11193806 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49594-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2023] [Accepted: 06/04/2024] [Indexed: 06/24/2024] Open
Abstract
Nanoscopic systems exhibit diverse molecular substructures by which they facilitate specific functions. Theoretical models of them, which aim at describing, understanding, and predicting these capabilities, are difficult to build. Viable quantum-classical hybrid models come with specific challenges regarding atomistic structure construction and quantum region selection. Moreover, if their dynamics are mapped onto a state-to-state mechanism such as a chemical reaction network, its exhaustive exploration will be impossible due to the combinatorial explosion of the reaction space. Here, we introduce a "quantum magnifying glass" that allows one to interactively manipulate nanoscale structures at the quantum level. The quantum magnifying glass seamlessly combines autonomous model parametrization, ultra-fast quantum mechanical calculations, and automated reaction exploration. It represents an approach to investigate complex reaction sequences in a physically consistent manner with unprecedented effortlessness in real time. We demonstrate these features for reactions in bio-macromolecules and metal-organic frameworks, diverse systems that highlight general applicability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katja-Sophia Csizi
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Miguel Steiner
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093, Zurich, Switzerland
- ETH Zurich, NCCR Catalysis, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Markus Reiher
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093, Zurich, Switzerland.
- ETH Zurich, NCCR Catalysis, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093, Zurich, Switzerland.
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2
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Weymuth T, Unsleber JP, Türtscher PL, Steiner M, Sobez JG, Müller CH, Mörchen M, Klasovita V, Grimmel SA, Eckhoff M, Csizi KS, Bosia F, Bensberg M, Reiher M. SCINE-Software for chemical interaction networks. J Chem Phys 2024; 160:222501. [PMID: 38857173 DOI: 10.1063/5.0206974] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2024] [Accepted: 05/09/2024] [Indexed: 06/12/2024] Open
Abstract
The software for chemical interaction networks (SCINE) project aims at pushing the frontier of quantum chemical calculations on molecular structures to a new level. While calculations on individual structures as well as on simple relations between them have become routine in chemistry, new developments have pushed the frontier in the field to high-throughput calculations. Chemical relations may be created by a search for specific molecular properties in a molecular design attempt, or they can be defined by a set of elementary reaction steps that form a chemical reaction network. The software modules of SCINE have been designed to facilitate such studies. The features of the modules are (i) general applicability of the applied methodologies ranging from electronic structure (no restriction to specific elements of the periodic table) to microkinetic modeling (with little restrictions on molecularity), full modularity so that SCINE modules can also be applied as stand-alone programs or be exchanged for external software packages that fulfill a similar purpose (to increase options for computational campaigns and to provide alternatives in case of tasks that are hard or impossible to accomplish with certain programs), (ii) high stability and autonomous operations so that control and steering by an operator are as easy as possible, and (iii) easy embedding into complex heterogeneous environments for molecular structures taken individually or in the context of a reaction network. A graphical user interface unites all modules and ensures interoperability. All components of the software have been made available as open source and free of charge.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Weymuth
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jan P Unsleber
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Paul L Türtscher
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Miguel Steiner
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jan-Grimo Sobez
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Charlotte H Müller
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Maximilian Mörchen
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Veronika Klasovita
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Stephanie A Grimmel
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Marco Eckhoff
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Katja-Sophia Csizi
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Francesco Bosia
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Moritz Bensberg
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Markus Reiher
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
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3
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Steiner M, Reiher M. A human-machine interface for automatic exploration of chemical reaction networks. Nat Commun 2024; 15:3680. [PMID: 38693117 PMCID: PMC11063077 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47997-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2023] [Accepted: 04/15/2024] [Indexed: 05/03/2024] Open
Abstract
Autonomous reaction network exploration algorithms offer a systematic approach to explore mechanisms of complex chemical processes. However, the resulting reaction networks are so vast that an exploration of all potentially accessible intermediates is computationally too demanding. This renders brute-force explorations unfeasible, while explorations with completely pre-defined intermediates or hard-wired chemical constraints, such as element-specific coordination numbers, are not flexible enough for complex chemical systems. Here, we introduce a STEERING WHEEL to guide an otherwise unbiased automated exploration. The STEERING WHEEL algorithm is intuitive, generally applicable, and enables one to focus on specific regions of an emerging network. It also allows for guiding automated data generation in the context of mechanism exploration, catalyst design, and other chemical optimization challenges. The algorithm is demonstrated for reaction mechanism elucidation of transition metal catalysts. We highlight how to explore catalytic cycles in a systematic and reproducible way. The exploration objectives are fully adjustable, allowing one to harness the STEERING WHEEL for both structure-specific (accurate) calculations as well as for broad high-throughput screening of possible reaction intermediates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel Steiner
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093, Zurich, Switzerland
- ETH Zurich, NCCR Catalysis, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Markus Reiher
- ETH Zurich, Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093, Zurich, Switzerland.
- ETH Zurich, NCCR Catalysis, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093, Zurich, Switzerland.
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4
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Csizi KS, Reiher M. Automated preparation of nanoscopic structures: Graph-based sequence analysis, mismatch detection, and pH-consistent protonation with uncertainty estimates. J Comput Chem 2024; 45:761-776. [PMID: 38124290 DOI: 10.1002/jcc.27276] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2023] [Accepted: 11/14/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023]
Abstract
Structure and function in nanoscale atomistic assemblies are tightly coupled, and every atom with its specific position and even every electron will have a decisive effect on the electronic structure, and hence, on the molecular properties. Molecular simulations of nanoscopic atomistic structures therefore require accurately resolved three-dimensional input structures. If extracted from experiment, these structures often suffer from severe uncertainties, of which the lack of information on hydrogen atoms is a prominent example. Hence, experimental structures require careful review and curation, which is a time-consuming and error-prone process. Here, we present a fast and robust protocol for the automated structure analysis and pH-consistent protonation, in short, ASAP. For biomolecules as a target, the ASAP protocol integrates sequence analysis and error assessment of a given input structure. ASAP allows for pK a prediction from reference data through Gaussian process regression including uncertainty estimation and connects to system-focused atomistic modeling described in Brunken and Reiher (J. Chem. Theory Comput. 16, 2020, 1646). Although focused on biomolecules, ASAP can be extended to other nanoscopic objects, because most of its design elements rely on a general graph-based foundation guaranteeing transferability. The modular character of the underlying pipeline supports different degrees of automation, which allows for (i) efficient feedback loops for human-machine interaction with a low entrance barrier and for (ii) integration into autonomous procedures such as automated force field parametrizations. This facilitates fast switching of the pH-state through on-the-fly system-focused reparametrization during a molecular simulation at virtually no extra computational cost.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katja-Sophia Csizi
- Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Markus Reiher
- Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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5
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Huang B, von Rudorff GF, von Lilienfeld OA. The central role of density functional theory in the AI age. Science 2023; 381:170-175. [PMID: 37440654 DOI: 10.1126/science.abn3445] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2023] [Accepted: 05/30/2023] [Indexed: 07/15/2023]
Abstract
Density functional theory (DFT) plays a pivotal role in chemical and materials science because of its relatively high predictive power, applicability, versatility, and computational efficiency. We review recent progress in machine learning (ML) model developments, which have relied heavily on DFT for synthetic data generation and for the design of model architectures. The general relevance of these developments is placed in a broader context for chemical and materials sciences. DFT-based ML models have reached high efficiency, accuracy, scalability, and transferability and pave the way to the routine use of successful experimental planning software within self-driving laboratories.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bing Huang
- University of Vienna, Faculty of Physics, AT1090 Wien, Austria
| | - Guido Falk von Rudorff
- University Kassel, Department of Chemistry, 34132 Kassel, Germany
- Center for Interdisciplinary Nanostructure Science and Technology (CINSaT), 34132 Kassel, Germany
| | - O Anatole von Lilienfeld
- Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1M1, Canada
- Department of Chemistry, University of Toronto, St. George Campus, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3H6, Canada
- Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Toronto, St. George Campus, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E4, Canada
- Department of Physics, University of Toronto, St. George Campus, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A7, Canada
- Machine Learning Group, Technische Universität Berlin and Berlin Institute for the Foundations of Learning and Data, 10587 Berlin, Germany
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6
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Eckhoff M, Reiher M. Lifelong Machine Learning Potentials. J Chem Theory Comput 2023; 19:3509-3525. [PMID: 37288932 PMCID: PMC10308836 DOI: 10.1021/acs.jctc.3c00279] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2023] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Machine learning potentials (MLPs) trained on accurate quantum chemical data can retain the high accuracy, while inflicting little computational demands. On the downside, they need to be trained for each individual system. In recent years, a vast number of MLPs have been trained from scratch because learning additional data typically requires retraining on all data to not forget previously acquired knowledge. Additionally, most common structural descriptors of MLPs cannot represent efficiently a large number of different chemical elements. In this work, we tackle these problems by introducing element-embracing atom-centered symmetry functions (eeACSFs), which combine structural properties and element information from the periodic table. These eeACSFs are key for our development of a lifelong machine learning potential (lMLP). Uncertainty quantification can be exploited to transgress a fixed, pretrained MLP to arrive at a continuously adapting lMLP, because a predefined level of accuracy can be ensured. To extend the applicability of an lMLP to new systems, we apply continual learning strategies to enable autonomous and on-the-fly training on a continuous stream of new data. For the training of deep neural networks, we propose the continual resilient (CoRe) optimizer and incremental learning strategies relying on rehearsal of data, regularization of parameters, and the architecture of the model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marco Eckhoff
- ETH Zürich, Departement Chemie und Angewandte Biowissenschaften, 8093 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Markus Reiher
- ETH Zürich, Departement Chemie und Angewandte Biowissenschaften, 8093 Zürich, Switzerland
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7
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Unsleber JP, Liu H, Talirz L, Weymuth T, Mörchen M, Grofe A, Wecker D, Stein CJ, Panyala A, Peng B, Kowalski K, Troyer M, Reiher M. High-throughput ab initio reaction mechanism exploration in the cloud with automated multi-reference validation. J Chem Phys 2023; 158:084803. [PMID: 36859110 DOI: 10.1063/5.0136526] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Quantum chemical calculations on atomistic systems have evolved into a standard approach to studying molecular matter. These calculations often involve a significant amount of manual input and expertise, although most of this effort could be automated, which would alleviate the need for expertise in software and hardware accessibility. Here, we present the AutoRXN workflow, an automated workflow for exploratory high-throughput electronic structure calculations of molecular systems, in which (i) density functional theory methods are exploited to deliver minimum and transition-state structures and corresponding energies and properties, (ii) coupled cluster calculations are then launched for optimized structures to provide more accurate energy and property estimates, and (iii) multi-reference diagnostics are evaluated to back check the coupled cluster results and subject them to automated multi-configurational calculations for potential multi-configurational cases. All calculations are carried out in a cloud environment and support massive computational campaigns. Key features of all components of the AutoRXN workflow are autonomy, stability, and minimum operator interference. We highlight the AutoRXN workflow with the example of an autonomous reaction mechanism exploration of the mode of action of a homogeneous catalyst for the asymmetric reduction of ketones.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan P Unsleber
- Laboratory of Physical Chemistry and NCCR Catalysis, ETH Zurich, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Hongbin Liu
- Microsoft Quantum, Redmond, Washington 98052, USA
| | | | - Thomas Weymuth
- Laboratory of Physical Chemistry and NCCR Catalysis, ETH Zurich, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Maximilian Mörchen
- Laboratory of Physical Chemistry and NCCR Catalysis, ETH Zurich, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Adam Grofe
- Microsoft Quantum, Redmond, Washington 98052, USA
| | - Dave Wecker
- Microsoft Quantum, Redmond, Washington 98052, USA
| | - Christopher J Stein
- Department of Chemistry, TUM School of Natural Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Lichtenbergstr. 4, D-85748 Garching, Germany
| | - Ajay Panyala
- Physical and Computational Sciences Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington 99354, USA
| | - Bo Peng
- Physical and Computational Sciences Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington 99354, USA
| | - Karol Kowalski
- Physical and Computational Sciences Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington 99354, USA
| | | | - Markus Reiher
- Laboratory of Physical Chemistry and NCCR Catalysis, ETH Zurich, Vladimir-Prelog-Weg 2, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
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8
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Cifci MA. A Deep Learning-Based Framework for Uncertainty Quantification in Medical Imaging Using the DropWeak Technique: An Empirical Study with Baresnet. Diagnostics (Basel) 2023; 13:800. [PMID: 36832288 PMCID: PMC9955446 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics13040800] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2023] [Revised: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 02/15/2023] [Indexed: 02/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Lung cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths globally. Early detection is crucial for improving patient survival rates. Deep learning (DL) has shown promise in the medical field, but its accuracy must be evaluated, particularly in the context of lung cancer classification. In this study, we conducted uncertainty analysis on various frequently used DL architectures, including Baresnet, to assess the uncertainties in the classification results. This study focuses on the use of deep learning for the classification of lung cancer, which is a critical aspect of improving patient survival rates. The study evaluates the accuracy of various deep learning architectures, including Baresnet, and incorporates uncertainty quantification to assess the level of uncertainty in the classification results. The study presents a novel automatic tumor classification system for lung cancer based on CT images, which achieves a classification accuracy of 97.19% with an uncertainty quantification. The results demonstrate the potential of deep learning in lung cancer classification and highlight the importance of uncertainty quantification in improving the accuracy of classification results. This study's novelty lies in the incorporation of uncertainty quantification in deep learning for lung cancer classification, which can lead to more reliable and accurate diagnoses in clinical settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mehmet Akif Cifci
- The Institute of Computer Technology, Tu Wien University, 1040 Vienna, Austria;
- Department of Computer Eng., Bandirma Onyedi Eylul University, 10200 Balikesir, Turkey
- Department of Informatics, Klaipeda University, 92294 Klaipeda, Lithuania;
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9
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Tokmachev AM. Statistical Equivalence of Quantum Chemical Methods for Energy Distribution in Water Clusters. Chemphyschem 2023; 24:e202300019. [PMID: 36787108 DOI: 10.1002/cphc.202300019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2023] [Revised: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 02/14/2023] [Indexed: 02/15/2023]
Abstract
Methods of quantum chemistry are instrumental in understanding molecular structures and properties. However, the results demonstrate significant variability, which is difficult to predict and rationalize. The fundamental question is whether some molecular systems exhibit properties invariant with respect to the computational method. The idea explored here is that collective properties of statistical ensembles should be more robust than characteristics of individual molecules and their arbitrary sets. This effect is demonstrated for the complete set of hydrogen-bond topologies of the dodecahedral water cluster (H2 O)20 . Non-Gaussian energy distributions produced by various methods have the same functional form despite strong differences in mean values and standard deviations. The conclusion is tested on methods of different complexity and origin employing a number of criteria. A linear mapping between the energies produced by different methods is discussed. The significance of the results is in establishing a collective equivalence property of quantum chemical methods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrey M Tokmachev
- National Research Center "Kurchatov Institute", Kurchatov Sq. 1, 123182, Moscow, Russia
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10
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Csizi K, Reiher M. Universal
QM
/
MM
approaches for general nanoscale applications. WIRES COMPUTATIONAL MOLECULAR SCIENCE 2023. [DOI: 10.1002/wcms.1656] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Markus Reiher
- Laboratorium für Physikalische Chemie ETH Zürich Zürich Switzerland
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11
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Duan C, Chu DBK, Nandy A, Kulik HJ. Detection of multi-reference character imbalances enables a transfer learning approach for virtual high throughput screening with coupled cluster accuracy at DFT cost. Chem Sci 2022; 13:4962-4971. [PMID: 35655882 PMCID: PMC9067623 DOI: 10.1039/d2sc00393g] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2022] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Appropriately identifying and treating molecules and materials with significant multi-reference (MR) character is crucial for achieving high data fidelity in virtual high-throughput screening (VHTS). Despite development of numerous MR diagnostics, the extent to which a single value of such a diagnostic indicates the MR effect on a chemical property prediction is not well established. We evaluate MR diagnostics for over 10 000 transition-metal complexes (TMCs) and compare to those for organic molecules. We observe that only some MR diagnostics are transferable from one chemical space to another. By studying the influence of MR character on chemical properties (i.e., MR effect) that involve multiple potential energy surfaces (i.e., adiabatic spin splitting, ΔE H-L, and ionization potential, IP), we show that differences in MR character are more important than the cumulative degree of MR character in predicting the magnitude of an MR effect. Motivated by this observation, we build transfer learning models to predict CCSD(T)-level adiabatic ΔE H-L and IP from lower levels of theory. By combining these models with uncertainty quantification and multi-level modeling, we introduce a multi-pronged strategy that accelerates data acquisition by at least a factor of three while achieving coupled cluster accuracy (i.e., to within 1 kcal mol-1 MAE) for robust VHTS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chenru Duan
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA 02139 USA
- Department of Chemistry, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA 02139 USA
| | - Daniel B K Chu
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA 02139 USA
| | - Aditya Nandy
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA 02139 USA
- Department of Chemistry, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA 02139 USA
| | - Heather J Kulik
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA 02139 USA
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12
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Pernot P. The long road to calibrated prediction uncertainty in computational chemistry. J Chem Phys 2022; 156:114109. [DOI: 10.1063/5.0084302] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational chemistry (CC) is still in its infancy. Very few CC methods are designed to provide a confidence level on their predictions, and most users still rely improperly on the mean absolute error as an accuracy metric. The development of reliable UQ methods is essential, notably for CC to be used confidently in industrial processes. A review of the CC-UQ literature shows that there is no common standard procedure to report or validate prediction uncertainty. I consider here analysis tools using concepts (calibration and sharpness) developed in meteorology and machine learning for the validation of probabilistic forecasters. These tools are adapted to CC-UQ and applied to datasets of prediction uncertainties provided by composite methods, Bayesian ensembles methods, and machine learning and a posteriori statistical methods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pascal Pernot
- Institut de Chimie Physique, UMR8000 CNRS, Université Paris-Saclay, 91405 Orsay, France
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