A Polygenic Risk Score as a Risk Factor for Medication-Associated Fractures

Genetic susceptibility and late bone outcomes in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia survivors

Childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (cALL) survivors are at increased risk for bone comorbidities, but accurate screening tools for such comorbidities are limited. Polygenic scores (PGS) could stratify cALL survivors for risk of long-term adverse bone outcomes. We evaluated 214 (51% female) cALL survivors from the Prévenir les Effets TArdifs de la LEucémie study (median age 21 yr). Bone mineral density (BMD) measurements were obtained using dual X-ray absorptiometry at the lumbar spine (LS-BMD), femoral neck (FN-BMD), and total body (TB-BMD), and vertebral fractures (VF) were documented using the vertebral deformity criterion. We computed a PGS for adult heel quantitative ultrasound speed of sound (gSOS), known to be associated with the risk of osteoporotic fracture, using imputed genotype data of the participants, and tested it for association with BMD Z-scores and VF risk, adjusting for clinical risk factors, and in sex and prognostic risk-stratified analyses. We found that a gSOS below the mean was associated with lower BMD in all three sites in univariate and multivariate models. In univariate analyses, 1 SD increase in gSOS conferred a 0.16 SD increase in LS-BMD (95% CI 0.005-0.31), whereas a gSOS above the mean was associated with a 0.31 SD higher LS-BMD (95% CI 0.008-0.61), a 0.36 SD higher TB-BMD (95% CI 0.06-0.67), and a 0.43 SD higher FN-BMD (95% CI 0.13-0.72). Models combining gSOS with clinical risk factors explained up to 16% of the variance of BMD phenotypes and obtained an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for VF of 0.77 in subgroup analyses. Cranial radiation, high cumulative glucocorticoid doses, high risk group, and male sex were significant risk factors for lower BMD Z-scores. In conclusion, a PGS, in combination with clinical risk factors, could be used as a tool to risk stratify cALL survivors for treatment-related bone morbidity.

Applying polygenic risk score methods to pharmacogenomics GWAS: challenges and opportunities

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have emerged as promising tools for the prediction of human diseases and complex traits in disease genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Applying PRSs to pharmacogenomics (PGx) studies has begun to show great potential for improving patient stratification and drug response prediction. However, there are unique challenges that arise when applying PRSs to PGx GWAS beyond those typically encountered in disease GWAS (e.g. Eurocentric or trans-ethnic bias). These challenges include: (i) the lack of knowledge about whether PGx or disease GWAS/variants should be used in the base cohort (BC); (ii) the small sample sizes in PGx GWAS with corresponding low power and (iii) the more complex PRS statistical modeling required for handling both prognostic and predictive effects simultaneously. To gain insights in this landscape about the general trends, challenges and possible solutions, we first conduct a systematic review of both PRS applications and PRS method development in PGx GWAS. To further address the challenges, we propose (i) a novel PRS application strategy by leveraging both PGx and disease GWAS summary statistics in the BC for PRS construction and (ii) a new Bayesian method (PRS-PGx-Bayesx) to reduce Eurocentric or cross-population PRS prediction bias. Extensive simulations are conducted to demonstrate their advantages over existing PRS methods applied in PGx GWAS. Our systematic review and methodology research work not only highlights current gaps and key considerations while applying PRS methods to PGx GWAS, but also provides possible solutions for better PGx PRS applications and future research.

A systematic review and analysis of the use of polygenic scores in pharmacogenomics

Polygenic scores (PGS) have emerged as promising tools for complex trait risk prediction. The application of these scores to pharmacogenomics provides new opportunities to improve the prediction of treatment outcomes. To gain insight into this area of research, we conducted a systematic review and accompanying analysis. This review uncovered 51 papers examining the use of PGS for drug-related outcomes, with the majority of these papers focusing on the treatment of psychiatric disorders (n=30). Due to difficulties in collecting large cohorts of uniformly treated patients, the majority of pharmacogenomic PGS were derived from large-scale genome-wide association studies of disease phenotypes that were related to the pharmacogenomic phenotypes under investigation (e.g. schizophrenia-derived PGS for antipsychotic response prediction). Examination of the research participants included in these studies revealed that the majority of cohort participants were of European descent (78.4%). These biases were also reflected in research affiliations, which were heavily weighted towards institutions located in Europe and North America, with no first or last authors originating from institutions in Africa or South Asia. There was also substantial variability in the methods used to develop PGS, with between 3 and 6.6 million variants included in the PGS. Finally, we observed significant inconsistencies in the reporting of PGS analyses and results, particularly in terms of risk model development and application, coupled with a lack of data transparency and availability, with only three pharmacogenomics PGS deposited on the PGS Catalog. These findings highlight current gaps and key areas for future pharmacogenomic PGS research.

Personalized fracture risk assessment: where are we at?

Introduction: Osteoporotic fracture imposes a significant health care burden globally. Personalized assessment of fracture risk can potentially guide treatment decisions. Over the past decade, a number of risk prediction models, including the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (Garvan) and FRAX®, have been developed and implemented in clinical practice. Areas covered: This article reviews recent development and validation results concerning the prognostic performance of the two tools. The main areas of review are the need for personalized fracture risk prediction, purposes of risk prediction, predictive performance in terms of discrimination and calibration, concordance between the Garvan and FRAX tools, genetic profiling for improving predictive performance, and treatment thresholds. In some validation studies, FRAX tended to underestimate fracture by as high as 50%. Studies have shown that the predicted risk from the Garvan tool is highly concordant with clinical decision. Expert opinion: Although there are some discrepancy in fracture risk prediction between Garvan and FRAX, both tools are valid and can aid patients and doctors communicate about risk and make informed decision. The ideal of personalized risk assessment for osteoporosis patients will be realized through the incorporation of genetic profiling into existing fracture risk assessment tools.

Post-GWAS Polygenic Risk Score: Utility and Challenges

Over the past decade, through genome‐wide association studies, more than 300 genetic variants have been identified to be associated with either BMD or fracture risk. These genetic variants are common in the general population, but they exert small to modest effects on BMD, suggesting that the utility of any single variant is limited. However, a combination of effect sizes from multiple variants in the form of the polygenic risk score (PRS) can provide a useful indicator of fracture risk beyond that obtained by conventional clinical risk factors. In this perspective, we review the progress of genetics of osteoporosis and approaches for creating PRSs, their uses, and caveats. Recent studies support the idea that the PRS, when integrated into existing fracture prediction models, can help clinicians and patients alike to better assess the fracture risk for an individual, and raise the possibility of precision risk assessment. © 2020 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.