Simulations of thermodynamics and kinetics on rough energy landscapes with milestoning

Task-oriented machine learning surrogates for tipping points of agent-based models

We present a machine learning framework bridging manifold learning, neural networks, Gaussian processes, and Equation-Free multiscale approach, for the construction of different types of effective reduced order models from detailed agent-based simulators and the systematic multiscale numerical analysis of their emergent dynamics. The specific tasks of interest here include the detection of tipping points, and the uncertainty quantification of rare events near them. Our illustrative examples are an event-driven, stochastic financial market model describing the mimetic behavior of traders, and a compartmental stochastic epidemic model on an Erdös-Rényi network. We contrast the pros and cons of the different types of surrogate models and the effort involved in learning them. Importantly, the proposed framework reveals that, around the tipping points, the emergent dynamics of both benchmark examples can be effectively described by a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation, thus revealing the intrinsic dimensionality of the normal form of the specific type of the tipping point. This allows a significant reduction in the computational cost of the tasks of interest.

Quantitative Prediction of Dissociation Rates of PYK2 Ligands Using Umbrella Sampling and Milestoning

We used umbrella sampling and the milestoning simulation method to study the dissociation of multiple ligands from protein kinase PYK2. The activation barriers obtained from the potential of mean force of the umbrella sampling simulations correlated well with the experimental dissociation rates. Using the zero-temperature string method, we obtained optimized paths along the free-energy surfaces for milestoning simulations of three ligands with a similar structure. The milestoning simulations gave an absolute dissociation rate within 2 orders of magnitude of the experimental value for two ligands but at least 3 orders of magnitude too high for the third. Despite the similarity in their structures, the ligands took different pathways to exit from the binding site of PYK2, making contact with different sets of residues. In addition, the protein experienced different conformational changes for dissociation of the three ligands.

SEEKR2: Versatile Multiscale Milestoning Utilizing the OpenMM Molecular Dynamics Engine

We present SEEKR2 (simulation-enabled estimation of kinetic rates version 2)—the latest iteration in the family of SEEKR programs for using multiscale simulation methods to computationally estimate the kinetics and thermodynamics of molecular processes, in particular, ligand-receptor binding. SEEKR2 generates equivalent, or improved, results compared to the earlier versions of SEEKR but with significant increases in speed and capabilities. SEEKR2 has also been built with greater ease of usability and with extensible features to enable future expansions of the method. Now, in addition to supporting simulations using NAMD, calculations may be run with the fast and extensible OpenMM simulation engine. The Brownian dynamics portion of the calculation has also been upgraded to Browndye 2. Furthermore, this version of SEEKR supports hydrogen mass repartitioning, which significantly reduces computational cost, while showing little, if any, loss of accuracy in the predicted kinetics.

Dissecting Multiple Pathways in the Relaxation Dynamics of Helix <==> Coil Transitions with Optimum Dimensionality Reduction

Fast kinetic experiments with dramatically improved time resolution have contributed significantly to understanding the fundamental processes in protein folding pathways involving the formation of a-helices and b-hairpin, contact formation, and overall collapse of the peptide chain. Interpretation of experimental results through application of a simple statistical mechanical model was key to this understanding. Atomistic description of all events observed in the experimental findings was challenging. Recent advancements in theory, more sophisticated algorithms, and a true long-term trajectory made way for an atomically detailed description of kinetics, examining folding pathways, validating experimental results, and reporting new findings for a wide range of molecular processes in biophysical chemistry. This review describes how optimum dimensionality reduction theory can construct a simplified coarse-grained model with low dimensionality involving a kinetic matrix that captures novel insights into folding pathways. A set of metastable states derived from molecular dynamics analysis generate an optimally reduced dimensionality rate matrix following transition pathway analysis. Analysis of the actual long-term simulation trajectory extracts a relaxation time directly comparable to the experimental results and confirms the validity of the combined approach. The application of the theory is discussed and illustrated using several examples of helix <==> coil transition pathways. This paper focuses primarily on a combined approach of time-resolved experiments and long-term molecular dynamics simulation from our ongoing work.

Milestoning: An Efficient Approach for Atomically Detailed Simulations of Kinetics in Biophysics

Recent advances in theory and algorithms for atomically detailed simulations open the way to the study of the kinetics of a wide range of molecular processes in biophysics. The theories propose a shift from the traditionally very long molecular dynamic trajectories, which are exact but may not be efficient in the study of kinetics, to the use of a large number of short trajectories. The short trajectories exploit a mapping to a mesh in coarse space and allow for efficient calculations of kinetics and thermodynamics. In this review, I focus on one theory: Milestoning is a theory and an algorithm that offers a hierarchical calculation of properties of interest, such as the free energy profile and the mean first passage time. Approximations to the true long-time dynamics can be computed efficiently and assessed at different steps of the investigation. The theory is discussed and illustrated using two biophysical examples: ion permeation through a phospholipid membrane and protein translocation through a channel.

Successes and challenges in simulating the folding of large proteins

Computational simulations of protein folding can be used to interpret experimental folding results, to design new folding experiments, and to test the effects of mutations and small molecules on folding. However, whereas major experimental and computational progress has been made in understanding how small proteins fold, research on larger, multidomain proteins, which comprise the majority of proteins, is less advanced. Specifically, large proteins often fold via long-lived partially folded intermediates, whose structures, potentially toxic oligomerization, and interactions with cellular chaperones remain poorly understood. Molecular dynamics based folding simulations that rely on knowledge of the native structure can provide critical, detailed information on folding free energy landscapes, intermediates, and pathways. Further, increases in computational power and methodological advances have made folding simulations of large proteins practical and valuable. Here, using serpins that inhibit proteases as an example, we review native-centric methods for simulating the folding of large proteins. These synergistic approaches range from Gō and related structure-based models that can predict the effects of the native structure on folding to all-atom-based methods that include side-chain chemistry and can predict how disease-associated mutations may impact folding. The application of these computational approaches to serpins and other large proteins highlights the successes and limitations of current computational methods and underscores how computational results can be used to inform experiments. These powerful simulation approaches in combination with experiments can provide unique insights into how large proteins fold and misfold, expanding our ability to predict and manipulate protein folding.

Kinetic Mechanism of RNA Helix-Terminal Basepairing-A Kinetic Minima Network Analysis

RNA functions are often kinetically controlled. The folding kinetics of RNAs involves global structural changes and local nucleotide movement, such as base flipping. The most elementary step in RNA folding is the closing and opening of a basepair. By integrating molecular dynamics simulation, master equation, and kinetic Monte Carlo simulation, we investigate the kinetics mechanism of RNA helix-terminal basepairing. The study reveals a six-state folding scheme with three dominant folding pathways of tens, hundreds, and thousands of nanoseconds of folding timescales, respectively. The overall kinetics is rate limited by the detrapping of a misfolded state with the overall folding time of 10^-5 s. Moreover, the analysis examines the different roles of the various driving forces, such as the basepairing and stacking interactions and the ion binding/dissociation effects on structural changes. The results may provide useful insights for developing a basepair opening/closing rate model and further kinetics models of large RNAs.

A new paradigm for atomically detailed simulations of kinetics in biophysical systems

The kinetics of biochemical and biophysical events determined the course of life processes and attracted considerable interest and research. For example, modeling of biological networks and cellular responses relies on the availability of information on rate coefficients. Atomically detailed simulations hold the promise of supplementing experimental data to obtain a more complete kinetic picture. However, simulations at biological time scales are challenging. Typical computer resources are insufficient to provide the ensemble of trajectories at the correct length that is required for straightforward calculations of time scales. In the last years, new technologies emerged that make atomically detailed simulations of rate coefficients possible. Instead of computing complete trajectories from reactants to products, these approaches launch a large number of short trajectories at different positions. Since the trajectories are short, they are computed trivially in parallel on modern computer architecture. The starting and termination positions of the short trajectories are chosen, following statistical mechanics theory, to enhance efficiency. These trajectories are analyzed. The analysis produces accurate estimates of time scales as long as hours. The theory of Milestoning that exploits the use of short trajectories is discussed, and several applications are described.

Perspective: Computer simulations of long time dynamics

Atomically detailed computer simulations of complex molecular events attracted the imagination of many researchers in the field as providing comprehensive information on chemical, biological, and physical processes. However, one of the greatest limitations of these simulations is of time scales. The physical time scales accessible to straightforward simulations are too short to address many interesting and important molecular events. In the last decade significant advances were made in different directions (theory, software, and hardware) that significantly expand the capabilities and accuracies of these techniques. This perspective describes and critically examines some of these advances.

A MATHEMATICAL FRAMEWORK FOR EXACT MILESTONING

We give a mathematical framework for Exact Milestoning, a recently introduced algorithm for mapping a continuous time stochastic process into a Markov chain or semi-Markov process that can be efficiently simulated and analyzed. We generalize the setting of Exact Milestoning and give explicit error bounds for the error in the Milestoning equation for mean first passage times.

Understanding the kinetic mechanism of RNA single base pair formation

RNA functions are intrinsically tied to folding kinetics. The most elementary step in RNA folding is the closing and opening of a base pair. Understanding this elementary rate process is the basis for RNA folding kinetics studies. Previous studies mostly focused on the unfolding of base pairs. Here, based on a hybrid approach, we investigate the folding process at level of single base pairing/stacking. The study, which integrates molecular dynamics simulation, kinetic Monte Carlo simulation, and master equation methods, uncovers two alternative dominant pathways: Starting from the unfolded state, the nucleotide backbone first folds to the native conformation, followed by subsequent adjustment of the base conformation. During the base conformational rearrangement, the backbone either retains the native conformation or switches to nonnative conformations in order to lower the kinetic barrier for base rearrangement. The method enables quantification of kinetic partitioning among the different pathways. Moreover, the simulation reveals several intriguing ion binding/dissociation signatures for the conformational changes. Our approach may be useful for developing a base pair opening/closing rate model.