A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach for Beta-Lactam Dosing in Critically Ill Patients Receiving Prolonged Intermittent Renal Replacement Therapy

Method “Monte Carlo” in healthcare

In public health, simulation modeling stands as an invaluable asset, enabling the evaluation of new systems without their physical implementation, experimentation with existing systems without operational adjustments, and testing system limits without real-world repercussions. In simulation modeling, the Monte Carlo method emerges as a powerful yet underutilized tool. Although the Monte Carlo method has not yet gained widespread prominence in healthcare, its technological capabilities hold promise for substantial cost reduction and risk mitigation. In this review article, we aimed to explore the transformative potential of the Monte Carlo method in healthcare contexts. We underscore the significance of experiential insights derived from simulated experimentation, especially in resource-constrained scenarios where time, financial constraints, and limited resources necessitate innovative and efficient approaches. As public health faces increasing challenges, incorporating the Monte Carlo method presents an opportunity for enhanced system construction, analysis, and evaluation.

Removal of common antimicrobial agents by sustained low-efficiency dialysis

Adequate dosing of antimicrobials is paramount for treating infections in critically ill patients undergoing kidney replacement therapy; however, little is known about antimicrobial removal by sustained low-efficiency dialysis (SLED). The objective was to quantify the removal of cefepime, daptomycin, meropenem, piperacillin-tazobactam, and vancomycin in patients undergoing SLED. Adult patients ≥18 years with acute kidney injury (AKI) or end-stage kidney disease receiving one of the select antimicrobials and requiring SLED were included. Blood and dialysate flow rates were maintained at 250 and 100 mL/min, respectively. Simultaneous arterial and venous blood samples for the analysis of antibiotic concentrations were collected hourly for 8 hours during SLED (on-SLED). Arterial samples were collected every 2 hours for up to 6 hours while not receiving SLED (off-SLED) for the calculation of SLED clearance, half-life (t1/2) on-SLED and off-SLED, and the fraction of removal by SLED (fD). Twenty-one patients completed the study: 52% male, mean age (±SD) 53 ± 13 years, and mean weight of 98 ± 30 kg. Eighty-six percent had AKI, and 4 patients were receiving cefepime, 3 daptomycin, 10 meropenem, 6 piperacillin-tazobactam, and 13 vancomycin. The average SLED time was 7.3 ± 1.1 hours, and the mean ultrafiltration rate was 95 ± 52 mL/hour (range 10-211). The t1/2 on-SLED was substantially lower than the off-SLED t1/2 for all antimicrobials, and the SLED fD varied between 44% and 77%. An 8-hour SLED session led to significant elimination of most antimicrobials evaluated. If SLED is performed, modification of the dosing regimen is warranted to avoid subtherapeutic concentrations.

Antibiotic dosing recommendations in critically ill patients receiving new innovative kidney replacement therapy

BACKGROUND

The Tablo Hemodialysis System is a new innovative kidney replacement therapy (KRT) providing a range of options for critically ill patients with acute kidney injury. The use of various effluent rate and treatment durations/frequencies may clear antibiotics differently than traditional KRT. This Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) study was to develop antibiotic doses likely to attain therapeutic targets for various KRT combinations.

METHODS

Published body weights and pharmacokinetic parameter estimates were used to predict drug exposure for cefepime, ceftazidime, imipenem, meropenem and piperacillin/tazobactam in virtual critically ill patients receiving five KRT regimens. Standard free β-lactam plasma concentration time above minimum inhibitory concentration targets (40-60%fT> MIC and 40-60%fT> MICx4) were used as efficacy targets. MCS assessed the probability of target attainment (PTA) and likelihood of toxicity for various antibiotic dosing strategies. The smallest doses attaining PTA ≥ 90% during 1-week of therapy were considered optimal.

RESULTS

MCS determined β-lactam doses achieving ∼90% PTA in all KRT options. KRT characteristics influenced antibiotic dosing. Cefepime and piperacillin/tazobactam regimens designed for rigorous efficacy targets were likely to exceed toxicity thresholds.

CONCLUSION

The flexibility offered by new KRT systems can influence β-lactam antibiotic dosing, but doses can be devised to meet therapeutic targets. Further clinical validations are warranted.

Antimicrobial pharmacokinetics and dosing in critically ill adults receiving prolonged intermittent renal replacement therapy: A systematic review

Prolonged intermittent renal replacement therapy (PIRRT) is gaining popularity as a renal replacement modality in intensive care units, but there is a relative lack of guidance regarding antimicrobial clearance and dosing when compared with other modalities. The objectives of this systematic review were to: (1) identify and describe the pharmacokinetics (PK) of relevant antimicrobials used in critically ill adults receiving PIRRT, (2) evaluate the quality of evidence supporting these data, and (3) propose dosing recommendations based on the synthesis of these data. A search strategy for multiple databases was designed and executed to identify relevant published evidence describing the PK of antimicrobials used in critically ill adults receiving PIRRT. Quality assessment, evaluation of reporting, and relevant data extraction were conducted in duplicate. Synthesis of PK/pharmacodynamic (PD) outcomes, dosing recommendations from study authors, and physicochemical properties of included antibiotics were assessed by investigators in addition to the quality of evidence to develop dosing recommendations. Thirty-nine studies enrolling 452 patients met criteria for inclusion and provided PK and/or PD data for 20 antimicrobials in critically ill adults receiving PIRRT. Nineteen studies describe both PK and PD outcomes. Vancomycin (12 studies, 171 patients), meropenem (7 studies, 84 patients), and piperacillin/tazobactam (5 studies, 56 patients) were the most frequent antimicrobials encountered. The quality of evidence was deemed strong for 7/20 antimicrobials, and strong dosing recommendations were determined for 9/20 antimicrobials. This systematic review updates and addresses issues of quality in previous systematic reviews on this topic. Despite an overall low quality of evidence, strong recommendations were able to be made for almost half of the identified antimicrobials. Knowledge gaps persist for many antimicrobials, and higher quality studies (i.e., population PK studies with assessment of PD target attainment) are needed to address these gaps.

Practical considerations for individualizing drug dosing in critically ill adults receiving renal replacement therapy

Critically ill patients with sepsis admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) often present with or develop renal dysfunction requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) in addition to antimicrobial therapy. While early and appropriate antimicrobials for sepsis have been associated with an increased probability of survival, adequate dosing is also required in these patients. Adequate dosing of antimicrobials refers to dosing strategies that achieve serum drug levels at the site of infection that are able to provide a microbiological and/or clinical response while avoiding toxicity from excessive antibiotic exposure. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) is the recommended strategy to achieve this goal, however, TDM is not routinely available in all ICUs and for all antimicrobials. In the absence of TDM, clinicians are therefore required to make dosing decisions based on the clinical condition of the patient, the causative organism, the characteristics of RRT, and an understanding of the physicochemical properties of the antimicrobial. Pharmacokinetics (PK) of antimicrobials can be highly variable between critically ill patients and also within the same patient over the course of their ICU stay. The initiation of RRT, which can be in the form of intermittent hemodialysis, continuous, or prolonged intermittent therapy, further complicates the predictability of drug disposition. This variability highlights the need for individualized dosing. This review highlights the practical considerations for the clinician for antimicrobial dosing in critically ill patients receiving RRT.

Beta-Lactam Probability of Target Attainment Success: Cefepime as a Case Study

Introduction: Probability of target attainment (PTA) analysis using Monte Carlo simulations has become a mainstay of dose optimization. We highlight the technical and clinical factors that may affect PTA for beta-lactams. Methods: We performed a mini review in adults to explore factors relating to cefepime PTA success and how researchers incorporate PTA into dosing decisions. In addition, we investigated, via simulations with a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model, factors that may affect cefepime PTA success. Results: The mini review included 14 articles. PTA results were generally consistent, given the differences in patient populations. However, dosing recommendations were more varied and appeared to depend on the definition of pharmacodynamic (PD) target, definition of PTA success and specific clinical considerations. Only 3 of 14 articles performed formal toxicological analysis. Simulations demonstrated that the largest determinants of cefepime PTA were the choice of PD target, continuous vs. intermittent infusion and creatinine clearance. Assumptions for protein binding, steady state vs. first dose, and simulating different sampling schemes may impact PTA success under certain conditions. The choice of one or two compartments had a minimal effect on PTA. Conclusions: PTA results may be similar with different assumptions and techniques. However, dose recommendation may differ significantly based on the selection of PD target, definition of PTA success and considerations specific to a patient population. Demographics and the PK parameters used to simulate time-concentration profiles should be derived from patient data applicable to the purpose of the PTA. There should be strong clinical rationale for dose selection. When possible, safety and toxicity should be considered in addition to PTA success.

An optimal extended-infusion dosing of cefepime and ceftazidime in critically ill patients with continuous renal replacement therapy

PURPOSE

This study aimed to determine optimal extended-infusion dosing regimens for cefepime and ceftazidime in critically ill patients receiving continuous renal replacement therapy using Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Pharmacokinetic models were built using published pharmacokinetic/demographic data to predict drug disposition in 5000 virtual critically ill patients receiving continuous venovenous hemofiltration (CVVH) with the standard (20-30 mL/kg/h) and a higher (40 mL/kg/h) effluent rates. MCS was performed to assess the probability of target attainment (PTA) of four cefepime and ceftazidime doses administered over 4-h with the target of ≥60% fT > 4×MIC. The lowest dose attaining PTA ≥90% during the first 48-h was considered optimal. Additionally, risk of drug toxicity was assessed at 48-h using suggested neurotoxicity thresholds.

RESULTS

Cefepime 2 g loading dose (LD), then extended-infusion of 2 g q8hr was optimal in CVVH at 20 mL/kg/h and the same ceftazidime dose was optimal in CVVH at 20-30 mL/kg/h. Higher cefepime and ceftazidime doses were required to be optimal at higher effluent rates. This optimal dose particularly for cefepime likely increases neurotoxicity risk in most virtual patients with all CVVH settings.

CONCLUSIONS

Cefepime and ceftazidime 2 g LD, followed by extended-infusion 2 g q8hr may be optimal in CVVH with standard effluent rates.

Size Matters: The Influence of Patient Size on Antibiotics Exposure Profiles in Critically Ill Patients on Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy

(1) Purpose of this study: To determine whether patient weight influences the probability of target attainment (PTA) over 72 h of initial therapy with beta-lactam (cefepime, ceftazidime, piperacillin/tazobactam) and carbapenem (imipenem, ertapenem, meropenem) antibiotics in the critical care setting. This is the first paper to address the question of whether patient size affects antibiotic PTA in the ICU. (2) Methods: We performed a post hoc analysis of Monte Carlo simulations conducted in virtual critically ill patients receiving antibiotics and continuous renal replacement therapy. The PTA was calculated for each antibiotic on the following pharmacodynamic (PD) targets: (a) were above the target organism’s minimum inhibitory concentration (≥%fT≥1×MIC), (b) were above four times the MIC (≥%fT≥4×MIC), and (c) were always above the MIC (≥100%fT≥MIC) for the first 72 h of antibiotic therapy. The PTA was analyzed in patient weight quartiles [Q1 (lightest)-Q4 (heaviest)]. Optimal doses were defined as the lowest dose achieving ≥90% PTA. (3) Results: The PTA for fT≥1×MIC led to similarly high rates regardless of weight quartiles. Yet, patient weight influenced the PTA for higher PD targets (100%fT≥MIC and fT≥4×MIC) with commonly used beta-lactams and carbapenems. Reaching the optimal PTA was more difficult with a PD target of 100%fT≥MIC compared to fT≥4×MIC. (4) Conclusions: The Monte Carlo simulations showed patients in lower weight quartiles tended to achieve higher antibiotic pharmacodynamic target attainment compared to heavier patients.

A personalised approach to antibiotic pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics in critically ill patients

Critically ill patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) with severe infections, or those who develop nosocomial infections, have poor outcomes with substantial morbidity and mortality. Such patients commonly have suboptimal antibiotic exposures at routinely used antibiotic doses related to an increased volume of distribution and altered clearance due to their underlying altered physiology. Furthermore, the use of extracorporeal devices such as renal replacement therapy and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in these group of patients also has the potential to alter in vivo drug concentrations. Moreover, ICU patients are likely to be infected with less-susceptible pathogens. Therefore, one potential contributing cause to the poor outcomes observed in critically ill patients may be related to subtherapeutic antibiotic exposures. Newer concepts include the clinician considering optimised dosing based on a blood antibiotic exposure defined by pharmacokinetic modelling and therapeutic drug monitoring, combined with a knowledge of the antibiotic penetration into the site of infection, thereby achieving optimal bacterial killing. Such optimised dosing is likely to improve patient outcomes. The aim of this review is to highlight key aspects of antibiotic pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) in critically ill patients and provide a PK/PD approach to tailor antibiotic dosing to the individual patient.

Imipenem/Relebactam Ex Vivo Clearance during Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy

(1) Purpose of this study: determination of adsorption and transmembrane clearances (CL_TM) of imipenem and relebactam in ex vivo continuous hemofiltration (CH) and continuous hemodialysis (CHD) models. These clearances were incorporated into a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), to develop drug dosing recommendations for critically ill patients requiring continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT); (2) Methods: A validated ex vivo bovine blood CH and CHD model using two hemodiafilters. Imipenem/relebactam and urea CL_TM at different ultrafiltrate/dialysate flow rates were evaluated in both CH and CHD. MCS was performed to determine dose recommendations for patients receiving CRRT; (3) Results: Neither imipenem nor relebactam adsorbed to the CRRT apparatus. The CL_TM of imipenem, relebactam, and urea approximated the effluent rates (ultrafiltrate/dialysate flow rates). The types of hemodiafilter and effluent rates did not influence CL_TM except in a dialysis flow rate of 1 L/h and 6 L/h in the CHD with relebactam (p < 0.05). Imipenem and relebactam 200 mg/100 mg every 6 h were sufficient to meet the standard time above the MIC pharmacodynamic targets in the modeled CRRT regimen of 25 kg/mL/h. (4) Conclusions: Imipenem and relebactam are not removed by adsorption to the CRRT apparatus, but readily cross the hemodiafilter membrane in CH and CHD. Dosage adjustment of imipenem/relebactam is likely required for critically ill patients receiving CRRT.

Case Report: Predicting the Range of Lamotrigine Concentration Using Pharmacokinetic Models Based on Monte Carlo Simulation: A Case Study of Antiepileptic Drug-Related Leukopenia

Lamotrigine (LTG), a wide-spectrum antiepileptic drug, is frequently associated with cutaneous side-effects, whereas hematological side-effects such as leukopenia have rarely been reported for it. We report the case of a 15-year-old Chinese female epileptic patient weighing 60 kg who developed combined asymptomatic leukopenia after receiving concomitant therapy with LTG and valproate acid (VPA). In this case report, antiepileptic drug-related leukopenia may have occurred in definite relation to an increase in LTG concentration and reversed with the discontinuation of VPA. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations were performed to estimate the steady-state serum concentrations (C_ss) of LTG for different dosing regimens in adolescent Chinese epileptic patients weighing the same as the patient considered in the case study, based on pharmacokinetic (PK) models published in past research. Adjustments to the dosage of LTG for the patient were analyzed to illustrate the application of MC simulations and verify the results. The predicted LTG concentrations within a prediction interval between the 10th and 90th percentiles that represented 80% of the simulated populations, could adequately capture the measured LTG concentrations of the patient, indicating that MC simulations are a useful tool for estimating drug concentrations. Clinicians may benefit from the timely probabilistic predictions of the range of drug concentration based on an MC simulation that considers a large sample of virtual patients. The case considered here highlights the importance of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and implementing model-informed precision dosing in the course of a patient’s individualized treatment to minimize adverse reactions.

The landscape of renal replacement therapy in Veterans Affairs Medical Center intensive care units

Background

Outpatient dialysis is standardized with several evidence-based measures of adequacy and quality that providers aim to meet while providing treatment. By contrast, in the intensive care unit (ICU) there are different types of prolonged and continuous renal replacement therapies (PIRRT and CRRT, respectively) with varied strategies for addressing patient care and a dearth of nationally accepted quality parameters. To eventually describe appropriate quality measures for ICU-related renal replacement therapy (RRT), we first aimed to capture the variety and prevalence of basic strategies and equipment utilized in the ICUs of Veteran Affairs (VA) medical facilities with inpatient hemodialysis capabilities.

Methods

Via email to the dialysis directors of all VA facilities that provided inpatient hemodialysis during 2018, we requested survey participation regarding aspects of RRT in VA ICUs. Questions centered around the mode of therapy, equipment, solutions, prescription authority, nursing, anticoagulation, antimicrobial dosing, and access.

Results

Seventy-six centers completed the questionnaire, achieving a response rate of 87.4%. Fifty-five centers reported using PIRRT or CRRT in addition to intermittent hemodialysis. Of these centers, 42 reported being specifically CRRT-capable. Over half of respondents had the capabilities to perform PIRRT. Twelve centers (21.8%) were equipped to use slow low efficient dialysis (SLED) alone. Therapy was largely prescribed by nephrologists (94.4% of centers).

Conclusions

Within the VA system, ICU-related RRT practice is quite varied. Variation in processes of care, prescription authority, nursing care coordination, medication management, and safety practices present opportunities for developing cross-cutting measures of quality of intensive care RRT that are agnostic of modality choice.

Drug dosing considerations in continuous renal replacement therapy

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication in critically ill patients, which is associated with increased in-hospital mortality. Delivering effective antibiotics to treat patients with sepsis receiving continuous renal replacement therapy (RRT) is complicated by variability in pharmacokinetics, dialysis delivery, lack of primary literature, and therapeutic drug monitoring. Pharmacokinetic alterations include changes in absorption, distribution, protein binding (PB), metabolism, and renal elimination. Drug absorption may be significantly changed due to alterations in gastric pH, perfusion, gastrointestinal motility, and intestinal atrophy. Volume of distribution for hydrophilic drugs may be increased due to volume overload. Estimation of renal clearance is challenged by the effective delivery of RRT. Drug characteristics such as PB, volume of distribution, and molecular weight impact removal of the drug by RRT. The totality of these alterations leads to reduced exposure. Despite our best knowledge, therapeutic drug monitoring of patients receiving continuous RRT demonstrates wide variability in antimicrobial concentrations, highlighting the need for expanded monitoring of all drugs. This review article will focus on changes in drug pharmacokinetics in AKI and dosing considerations to attain antibiotic pharmacodynamic targets in critically ill patients receiving continuous RRT.

Principles of Drug Dosing in Sustained Low Efficiency Dialysis (SLED) and Review of Antimicrobial Dosing Literature

The use of sustained low-efficiency dialysis (SLED) as a renal replacement modality has increased in critically ill patients with both acute kidney injury (AKI) and hemodynamic instability. Unfortunately, there is a paucity of data regarding the appropriate dosing of medications for patients undergoing SLED. Dose adjustment in SLED often requires interpretation of pharmacodynamics and pharmacokinetic factors and extrapolation based on dosing recommendations from other modes of renal replacement therapy (RRT). This review summarizes published trials of antimicrobial dose adjustment in SLED and discusses pharmacokinetic considerations specific to medication dosing in SLED. Preliminary recommendation is provided on selection of appropriate dosing for medications where published literature is unavailable.

Antibiotic Dosing for Critically Ill Adult Patients Receiving Intermittent Hemodialysis, Prolonged Intermittent Renal Replacement Therapy, and Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy: An Update

Objective: To summarize current antibiotic dosing recommendations in critically ill patients receiving intermittent hemodialysis (IHD), prolonged intermittent renal replacement therapy (PIRRT), and continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), including considerations for individualizing therapy. Data Sources: A literature search of PubMed from January 2008 to May 2019 was performed to identify English-language literature in which dosing recommendations were proposed for antibiotics commonly used in critically ill patients receiving IHD, PIRRT, or CRRT. Study Selection and Data Extraction: All pertinent reviews, selected studies, and references were evaluated to ensure appropriateness for inclusion. Data Synthesis: Updated empirical dosing considerations are proposed for antibiotics in critically ill patients receiving IHD, PIRRT, and CRRT with recommendations for individualizing therapy. Relevance to Patient Care and Clinical Practice: This review defines principles for assessing renal function, identifies RRT system properties affecting drug clearance and drug properties affecting clearance during RRT, outlines pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic dosing considerations, reviews pertinent updates in the literature, develops updated empirical dosing recommendations, and highlights important factors for individualizing therapy in critically ill patients. Conclusions: Appropriate antimicrobial selection and dosing are vital to improve clinical outcomes. Dosing recommendations should be applied cautiously with efforts to consider local epidemiology and resistance patterns, antibiotic dosing and infusion strategies, renal replacement modalities, patient-specific considerations, severity of illness, residual renal function, comorbidities, and patient response to therapy. Recommendations provided herein are intended to serve as a guide in developing and revising therapy plans individualized to meet a patient's needs.

A Guide to Understanding Antimicrobial Drug Dosing in Critically Ill Patients on Renal Replacement Therapy

A careful management of antimicrobials is essential in the critically ill with acute kidney injury, especially if renal replacement therapy is required. Acute kidney injury may lead per se to clinically significant modifications of drugs' pharmacokinetic parameters, and the need for renal replacement therapy represents a further variable that should be considered to avoid inappropriate antimicrobial therapy. The most important pharmacokinetic parameters, useful to determine the significance of extracorporeal removal of a given drug, are molecular weight, protein binding, and distribution volume. In many cases, the extracorporeal removal of antimicrobials can be relevant, with a consistent risk of underdosing-related treatment failure and/or potential onset of bacterial resistance. It should also be taken into account that renal replacement therapies are often not standardized in critically ill patients, and their impact on plasma drug concentrations may substantially vary in relation to membrane characteristics, treatment modality, and delivered dialysis dose. Thus, in this clinical scenario, the knowledge of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of different antimicrobial classes is crucial to tailor maintenance dose and/or time interval according to clinical needs. Finally, especially for antimicrobials known for a tight therapeutic range, therapeutic drug monitoring is strongly suggested to guide dosing adjustment in complex clinical settings, such as septic patients with acute kidney injury undergoing renal replacement therapy.

Suboptimal Clinical Response Rates with Newer Antibiotics Among Patients with Moderate Renal Impairment: Review of the Literature and Potential Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Considerations for Observed Findings

A number of antibacterial agents have emerged into the U.S. market in the last 2 decades to address growing concerns of antimicrobial resistance. These agents have demonstrated noninferiority to comparators for treatment of a range of complicated infections in their respective clinical trials. However, with select agents, a trend of reduced therapeutic efficacy was observed among study patients with baseline renal impairment. This phenomenon was seen in phase III studies involving ceftazidime-avibactam, ceftolozane-tazobactam, daptomycin, and telavancin. Although these were largely post hoc findings among small subpopulations, this observation is still concerning, given that renal impairment is a common occurrence among patients in real-world care settings. Cautions for use in this population are featured in the prescribing information of all four agents. Although well-defined reasons for these findings across trials are diverse or unknown, several potential pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic explanations for these discordant response rates exist. In this review, we summarize the phase III studies that observed lower response rates with ceftazidime-avibactam, ceftolozane-tazobactam, daptomycin, and telavancin relative to their comparators among patients with moderate renal impairment, discuss potential explanations for the observed findings, provide considerations for future antibiotic development, and offer strategies for optimizing antibiotic dosage selection among patients with moderate renal impairment in clinical settings. Although all of these agents are discussed, ceftazidime-avibactam is used as a motivating example to demonstrate the implications of inappropriate dosage selection.