Predicted Cardiac Functional Responses to Renal Actions of SGLT2i in the DAPACARD Trial Population: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis

Understanding heterogeneous mechanisms of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction through cardiorenal mathematical modeling

In contrast to heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), effective interventions for HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) have proven elusive, in part because it is a heterogeneous syndrome with incompletely understood pathophysiology. This study utilized mathematical modeling to evaluate mechanisms distinguishing HFpEF and HFrEF. HF was defined as a state of chronically elevated left ventricle end diastolic pressure (LVEDP > 20mmHg). First, using a previously developed cardiorenal model, sensitivities of LVEDP to potential contributing mechanisms of HFpEF, including increased myocardial, arterial, or venous stiffness, slowed ventricular relaxation, reduced LV contractility, hypertension, or reduced venous capacitance, were evaluated. Elevated LV stiffness was identified as the most sensitive factor. Large LV stiffness increases alone, or milder increases combined with either decreased LV contractility, increased arterial stiffness, or hypertension, could increase LVEDP into the HF range without reducing EF. We then evaluated effects of these mechanisms on mechanical signals of cardiac outward remodeling, and tested the ability to maintain stable EF (as opposed to progressive EF decline) under two remodeling assumptions: LV passive stress-driven vs. strain-driven remodeling. While elevated LV stiffness increased LVEDP and LV wall stress, it mitigated wall strain rise for a given LVEDP. This suggests that if LV strain drives outward remodeling, a stiffer myocardium will experience less strain and less outward dilatation when additional factors such as impaired contractility, hypertension, or arterial stiffening exacerbate LVEDP, allowing EF to remain normal even at high filling pressures. Thus, HFpEF heterogeneity may result from a range of different pathologic mechanisms occurring in an already stiffened myocardium. Together, these simulations further support LV stiffening as a critical mechanism contributing to elevated cardiac filling pressures; support LV passive strain as the outward dilatation signal; offer an explanation for HFpEF heterogeneity; and provide a mechanistic explanation distinguishing between HFpEF and HFrEF.

A quantitative systems pharmacology model of plasma potassium regulation by the kidney and aldosterone

Plasma potassium regulation within a narrow range is vital for life. The risk for hyperkalemia increases when kidney function is impaired and with therapeutic interventions such as mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs). The kidney maintains potassium homeostasis by matching potassium intake and excretion, in part through the action of aldosterone. A mechanistic mathematical model was developed and used to investigate the effect of renal impairment and MRAs on plasma potassium levels. The model describes renal potassium filtration, reabsorption, and secretion along the nephron; potassium-aldosterone regulatory feedbacks; whole body potassium balance; and the pharmacologic effects of MRAs. The model was calibrated by fitting (1) the plasma potassium and aldosterone response to potassium infusion in humans on high/low potassium diets, and (2) the acute potassium excretion response to spironolactone. The model was validated by predicting steady-state plasma potassium with sustained spironolactone treatment in hyperaldosteronism patients. The model was then used to demonstrate that (1) declining renal function alone has a small effect on plasma potassium for GFR > 30 ml/min, but an increasing effect as GFR approaches end stage renal disease (GFR ~ 15 ml/min) (2) the effect of increasing potassium intake has minimal effect at normal GFRs but increasing effect on plasma potassium as GFR declines, and 3) MRAs have a minor effect on plasma potassium when GFR is normal, but cause larger increases as GFR falls below 60 ml/min. This model provides a quantitative framework for investigating integrated impacts of diseases and therapies in this complex system.