Evaluation of the United Kingdom-primary biliary cholangitis and global primary biliary cholangitis group prognostic models for primary biliary cholangitis patients treated with ursodeoxycholic acid in the U.S. population

Prognostic scores in primary biliary cholangitis

Aim: Evaluating prognostic scores' utility in predicting ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) biochemical response (BR) and long-term liver-related complications in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) patients. Patients & methods: This retrospective single-center study included 50 predominantly female PBC patients (median age: 56) on UDCA treatment. BR was defined by Paris II criteria. Liver-related complications during a median 76-month follow-up were assessed. APRI, ALBI, Mayo, GLOBE and UK-PBC scores were calculated. Results: 64% achieved BR, while 40% experienced liver-related complications. All scores showed good BR prediction (concordance statistics: 0.76-0.94) and excellent negative predictive values for 5-year liver complications (concordance statistics: 0.73-0.89). Conclusion: Implementing these scores in clinical practice is encouraged due to their effectiveness in predicting BR- and liver-related events.

Prognostic scores in primary biliary cholangitis patients with advanced disease

BACKGROUND

Due to the chronic progressive disease characteristics of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), patients with advanced PBC should not be ignored. Most prognostic score studies have focused on early stage PBC.

AIM

To compare the prognostic value of various risk scores in advanced PBC to help PBC patients obtain more monitoring and assessment.

METHODS

This study considered patients diagnosed with PBC during hospitalization between 2015 and 2021. The clinical stage was primarily middle and late, and patients usually took ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) after diagnosis. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with concordance statistics at baseline and after 1 year of UDCA treatment. Telephone follow-up was conducted to analyze the course and disease-associated outcomes. The follow-up deadline was December 31, 2021. We compared the risk score indexes between those patients who reached a composite end point of death or liver transplantation (LT) and those who remained alive at the deadline. The combined performance of prognostic scores in estimating the risk of death or LT after 1 year of UDCA treatment was assessed using Cox regression analyses. Predictive accuracy was evaluated by comparing predicted and actual survival through Kaplan-Meier analyses.

RESULTS

We included 397 patients who were first diagnosed with PBC during hospitalization and received UDCA treatment; most disease stages were advanced. After an average of 6.4 ± 1.4 years of follow-up, 82 patients had died, and 4 patients had undergone LT. After receiving UDCA treatment for 1 year, the score with the best discrimination performance was the Mayo, with a concordance statistic of 0.740 (95% confidence interval: 0.690-0.791). The albumin-bilirubin, GLOBE, and Mayo scores tended to overestimate transplant-free survival. Comparing 7 years of calibration results showed that the Mayo score was the best model.

CONCLUSION

The Mayo, GLOBE, UK-PBC, and ALBI scores demonstrated comparable discriminating performance for advanced stage PBC. The Mayo score showed optimal discriminatory performance and excellent predictive accuracy.

Incomplete response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis: criteria, epidemiology, and possible mechanisms

INTRODUCTION

As a common autoimmune disease with the characteristic of early complication, primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) leads to an increasing number of mortalities among people with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) waiting for liver transplantation. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is the only approved first-line medicine for PBC, and a good response to treatment could acquire an ideal prognosis. Patients with poor UDCA response usually have more adverse outcomes and worse survival, therefore, the management of this group become a major consideration.

AREAS COVERED

Due to the complexity of race and environment for PBC, different criteria for UDCA response exhibit various predictive performances. Factors affecting UDCA response conditions include gender, age, ethnicity, serum indicators, auto-antibodies, and autoimmune comorbidities, while no agreement has been reached. In this review, we mainly focus on cellular senescence, immune-mediated damage, and vitamin D deficiency as possible mechanisms for UDCA non-responders.

EXPERT OPINION

The pathogenesis of PBC has yet to be clarified. Immunology-related mechanisms and therapy targets ought to be the main effort made for further study. Irrespective of the response condition, UDCA is recommended for routine administration in all PBC patients without contraindication. Ongoing clinical trials of second-line and additional therapy exhibit promising prospects.

The association of histological progression with biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is currently diagnosed at an early stage; therefore, the number of patients with PBC without symptoms at the time of diagnosis is increasing. However, up to 30% of patients with PBC exhibit the suboptimal response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) and are at high risk of end-stage liver disease. Obeticholic acid is an approved second-line therapy for patients with PBC that are refractory to UDCA. Novel surrogate endpoints are required to identify individuals eligible for second-line therapies. An inadequate biochemical response to UDCA is a useful predictor of poor outcomes in patients with PBC. In addition to UDCA effects on biochemical parameters, histological outcomes could be considered as candidate surrogate endpoints. Alterations in liver histology are used as surrogate endpoints in clinical studies. However, current staging systems are insufficient to determine PBC disease severity and progression because of the pathological heterogeneity of the disease. Histological features at baseline and biochemical response to UDCA treatment can affect the disease course of PBC. Therefore, novel surrogate endpoints must be represented by parameters characterized by histological outcomes and treatment responses in PBC. In this review, we discuss the existing histological parameters and newly created factors to identify patients with PBC who are at a high risk of developing end-stage liver disease and, consequently, the potential need for additional treatments.