Performance of two prognostic scores that incorporate genetic information to predict long-term outcomes following resection of colorectal cancer liver metastases: An external validation of the MD Anderson and JHH-MSK scores

Estimating Efficacy of Conversion Therapy on Patients with Initially Unresectable Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases by using MRI: Development of a Predictive Score

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

The conversion success rate (CSR) has crucial implication for clinical outcomes of initially unresectable colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) following conversion therapy. This study aimed to develop a simple predictive scoring model for identifying CSR according to baseline magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features, and confirm its performance and prognostic significance in a validation cohort.

METHODS

A total of 155 consecutive patients with initially unresectable CRLM were retrospectively reviewed in the study. A simple MRI-based predictive scoring model for identifying CSR was developed in the development cohort (n = 104) by using multivariable logistic regression analyzes. The diagnostic performance was evaluated for the predictive score. Thereafter, patients in the validation cohort (n = 51) were stratified into groups with predicted high CSR or low CSR according to the score. The progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were compared between two groups using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

The predictive score of CSR, named mrNISE, incorporated the number of CRLM ≥ 10, the largest size ≥ 50 mm, poorly defined tumor-liver interface, and peritumoral enhancement. The AUC of the mrNISE score was 0.845 for the development cohort and 0.776 for the validation cohort. According to the score, patients with predicted high CSR had better PFS and OS than those with low CSR in both development and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSION

The predictive score demonstrated great performance for identifying CSR of initially unresectable CRLM. Stratifying patients by the score, personalized treatment goals can be formulated before conversion therapy to improve clinical prognosis and reduce adverse events caused by ineffective treatment.

Surgical strategy for colorectal cancer with synchronous liver and extrahepatic metastases: A scoring system and decision tree model

BACKGROUND

The role of hepatectomy in a specific group of patients with synchronous colorectal cancer with liver metastases (SCRLM) and synchronous extrahepatic disease (SEHD) is still unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of liver surgery and define the selection criteria for surgical candidates in patients with SCRLM + SEHD.

METHODS

Between July 2007 and October 2018, 475 patients with colorectal cancer with liver metastases (CRLM) who underwent liver resection were retrospectively reviewed. Sixty-five patients with SCRLM + SEHD were identified and included in the study. Clinical pathological data of these patients were analyzed to evaluate the influence on survival. Important prognostic factors were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. The risk score system and decision tree analysis were generated according to the important prognostic factors for better patient selection.

RESULTS

The 5-year survival rate of patients with SCRLM + SEHD was 21.9%. The most important prognostic factors were SCRLM number of more than five, site of SEHD other than the lung only, inability to achieve SCRLM + SEHD R0 resection, and BRAF mutation of cancer cells. The proposed risk score system and decision tree model easily discriminated between patients with different survival rates and identified the profile of suitable surgical patients.

CONCLUSION

Liver surgery should not be a contraindication for patients with SCRLM + SEHD. Patients with complete SCRLM + SEHD R0 resection, SCRLM number less than or equal to five, SEHD confined to the lung only, and wild-type BRAF could have favorable survival outcomes. The proposed scoring system and decision tree model may be beneficial to patient selection in clinical use.

Prognostic Models Incorporating RAS Mutation to Predict Survival in Patients with Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Narrative Review

Recurrence and survival vary widely among patients who undergo curative-intent resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). Prognostic models provide estimated probabilities of these outcomes and allow the effects of multiple potentially interacting variables to be adjusted and assessed simultaneously. Although many prognostic models based on clinicopathologic factors have been developed since the 1990s to predict survival after resection of CRLM, these models vary in their predictive performance when applied to contemporary cohorts. Rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog (RAS) mutation status is routinely tested in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer to predict response to anti-epidermal growth factor therapy. In addition, mutations in RAS predict survival and recurrence in patients undergoing hepatectomy for CRLM. Several recent prognostic models have incorporated RAS mutation status as a surrogate of tumor biology and combined revised clinicopathologic variables to improve the prediction of recurrence and survival. This narrative review aims to evaluate the differences between contemporary prognostic models incorporating RAS mutation status and their clinical applicability in patients considered for curative-intent resection of CRLM.

Liver Transplantation as a Curative Approach for Patients With Nonresectable Colorectal Liver Metastases

OBJECTIVES

Liver transplant is emerging as a potential treatment option for patients with isolated colorectal liver metastasis. In this review article, we analyzed the published literature on liver transplant outcomes in such patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Four prospective studies documenting the clinical outcomes in patients with colorectal liver metastasis who underwent liver transplant were analyzed to study the feasibility of liver transplant in such patients.

RESULTS

The SECA-II trial demonstrated the highest overall survival of 100%, 83%, and 83% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, and disease-free survival of 53%, 44%, and 35%, respectively, with a narrow inclusion criterion. Conversely, extended criteria for selection and donors in arm D of the same trial resulted in median overall survival and disease-free survival of 18 and 4 months, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver transplant provided more prolonged overall survival compared with other therapeutic modalities. Patients with isolated colorectal liver metastasis of less aggressive biology, good performance status, at least 6 weeks of chemotherapy, low clinical risk scores, and negative nodal disease should be considered for patient selection. Moreover, exclusion criteria consisting of patients with the right-sided primary tumor, less than 3 years to liver transplant after diagnosis, and elevation of carbohydrate antigen (CA19-9) in the presence of BRAF mutation should be explored.

Nontumor related risk score: A new tool to improve prediction of prognosis after hepatectomy for colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

Prognostic stratification of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis based solely on tumor-related factors has only moderate discriminatory ability. We hypothesized that the inclusion of nontumor related factors can improve prediction of long-term prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis.

METHODS

Nontumor related laboratory markers were assessed utilizing a training cohort from 2 U.S. institutions (n = 1,205). Factors independently associated with prognosis were used to develop a nontumor related prognostic score. The discriminatory ability, assessed by Harrell's C-statistics (C-index) and net reclassification improvement, was validated and compared with 3 commonly used tumor-related clinical risk scores: Fong clinical risk scores, m-clinical risk scores, and Genetic and Morphological Evaluation (GAME) score in an external validation cohort from 5 Asian (n = 1,307) and 3 European (n = 1,058) institutions. The discriminatory ability of nontumor related prognostic score combined with each of these 3 tumor-related prognostic scores was also estimated.

RESULTS

Alkaline phosphatase (hazard ratio 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.84), albumin (hazard ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.89), and mean corpuscular volume (hazard ratio 19.0, per log unit; 95% confidence interval, 4.79-75.0) were each independently associated with increased risk of death after resection of colorectal cancer liver metastasis (all P < .05). In turn, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, and mean corpuscular volume were combined to form a nontumor related prognostic score (2.942 × mean corpuscular volume + 0.399 × alkaline phosphatase-0.339 × albumin-12) × 10 (median, 16; range, 1-30). The nontumor related prognostic score had good-to-modest discriminatory ability in the external cohort (C-index = 0.58), which was comparable to the 3 established tumor-related prognostic scores (C-index: Fong clinical risk scores, 0.53, m-clinical risk scores, 0.55, GAME, 0.58). The addition of the nontumor related prognostic score to the tumor-related prognostic scores enhanced the discriminatory ability in the entire study cohort (C-index: nontumor related score+Fong, 0.60, nontumor related score+m-clinical risk scores, 0.61, nontumor related score+GAME, 0.64), as well reclassification improvement (42.5, 42.7%, and 21.2%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Nontumor related prognostic information may help improve the prognostic stratification of patients after resection of colorectal cancer liver metastasis. The nontumor related prognostic score may be combined with tumor-related prognostic tools to enhance prognostic stratification of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis.