Retrospective analysis of antiretroviral HIV treatment success based on medical history or guided by the reverse hybridisation LiPA HIV genotyping system

Laboratory Methods in Molecular Epidemiology: Viral Infections

Viruses, which are the most abundant biological entities on the planet, have been regarded as the "dark matter" of biology in the sense that despite their ubiquity and frequent presence in large numbers, their detection and analysis are not always straightforward. The majority of them are very small (falling under the limit of 0.5 μm), and collectively, they are extraordinarily diverse. In fact, the majority of the genetic diversity on the planet is found in the so-called virosphere, or the world of viruses. Furthermore, the most frequent viral agents of disease in humans display an RNA genome, and frequently evolve very fast, due to the fact that most of their polymerases are devoid of proofreading activity. Therefore, their detection, genetic characterization, and epidemiological surveillance are rather challenging. This review (part of the Curated Collection on Advances in Molecular Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases) describes many of the methods that, throughout the last few decades, have been used for viral detection and analysis. Despite the challenge of having to deal with high genetic diversity, the majority of these methods still depend on the amplification of viral genomic sequences, using sequence-specific or sequence-independent approaches, exploring thermal profiles or a single nucleic acid amplification temperature. Furthermore, viral populations, and especially those with RNA genomes, are not usually genetically uniform but encompass swarms of genetically related, though distinct, viral genomes known as viral quasispecies. Therefore, sequence analysis of viral amplicons needs to take this fact into consideration, as it constitutes a potential analytic problem. Possible technical approaches to deal with it are also described here. *This article is part of a curated collection.

Antiretroviral therapy optimisation without genotype resistance testing: a perspective on treatment history based models

Background

Although genotypic resistance testing (GRT) is recommended to guide combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), funding and/or facilities to perform GRT may not be available in low to middle income countries. Since treatment history (TH) impacts response to subsequent therapy, we investigated a set of statistical learning models to optimise cART in the absence of GRT information.

Methods and Findings

The EuResist database was used to extract 8-week and 24-week treatment change episodes (TCE) with GRT and additional clinical, demographic and TH information. Random Forest (RF) classification was used to predict 8- and 24-week success, defined as undetectable HIV-1 RNA, comparing nested models including (i) GRT+TH and (ii) TH without GRT, using multiple cross-validation and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Virological success was achieved in 68.2% and 68.0% of TCE at 8- and 24-weeks (n = 2,831 and 2,579), respectively. RF (i) and (ii) showed comparable performances, with an average (st.dev.) AUC 0.77 (0.031) vs. 0.757 (0.035) at 8-weeks, 0.834 (0.027) vs. 0.821 (0.025) at 24-weeks. Sensitivity analyses, carried out on a data subset that included antiretroviral regimens commonly used in low to middle income countries, confirmed our findings. Training on subtype B and validation on non-B isolates resulted in a decline of performance for models (i) and (ii).

Conclusions

Treatment history-based RF prediction models are comparable to GRT-based for classification of virological outcome. These results may be relevant for therapy optimisation in areas where availability of GRT is limited. Further investigations are required in order to account for different demographics, subtypes and different therapy switching strategies.