Predictors of severe disease in a hospitalized population of children with acute viral lower respiratory tract infections

Modeling the impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa

Background

The South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates reduced circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 seasons. Here, we use a mechanistic transmission model to project the rebound of RSV in the two subsequent seasons.

Methods

We fit an age-structured epidemiological model to hospitalization data from national RSV surveillance in South Africa, allowing for time-varying reduction in RSV transmission during periods of COVID-19 circulation. We apply the model to project the rebound of RSV in the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

Results

We projected an early and intense outbreak of RSV in April 2022, with an age shift to older infants (6-23 months old) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. In March 2022, government alerts were issued to prepare the hospital system for this potentially intense outbreak. We then assess the 2022 predictions and project the 2023 season. Model predictions for 2023 indicate that RSV activity has not fully returned to normal, with a projected early and moderately intense wave. We estimate that NPIs reduced RSV transmission between 15% and 50% during periods of COVID-19 circulation.

Conclusions

A wide range of NPIs impacted the dynamics of the RSV outbreaks throughout 2020-2023 in regard to timing, magnitude, and age structure, with important implications in a low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) setting where RSV interventions remain limited. More efforts should focus on adapting RSV models to LMIC data to project the impact of upcoming medical interventions for this disease.

Disparities in prevalence and outcomes of respiratory disease in low- and middle-income countries

OBJECTIVES

To provide a comprehensive overview of disparities in prevalence and outcomes of respiratory diseases and notable challenges for providing optimal treatment to pediatric patients with respiratory diseases living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), as an input to help better understand the roots of respiratory health disparities.

METHODS

We conducted a narrative review of relevant literature published in electronic databases from inception to February 2023 that present data on disparities in prevalence and outcomes of respiratory disease in LMICs. Additionally, we included studies that describe and discuss challenges for providing optimal treatment to pediatric patients with respiratory diseases living in LMICs.

RESULTS

A number of early life exposures have been associated with adverse respiratory outcomes in later life. Several studies have shown marked geographical variations in the prevalence and burden of pediatric asthma, with consistently lower prevalence rates but significantly higher burdens and worse outcomes in LMICs. There is a wide range of challenges that adversely affect the efficient care of children with respiratory diseases that can be classified into three categories: patient-related factors, social/environmental factors, and factors related to healthcare providers or the healthcare system.

CONCLUSIONS

Respiratory health disparities in children living in LMICs represent a global public health issue mainly explained by an unequal distribution of preventable and modifiable risk factors for respiratory diseases across different demographic groups.

What are the risk factors for death among children with pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries? A systematic review

Background

Knowledge of the risk factors for and causes of treatment failure and mortality in childhood pneumonia is important for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment at an individual and population level. This review aimed to identify the most important risk factors for mortality among children aged under ten years with pneumonia.

Methods

We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PubMed for observational and interventional studies reporting risk factors for mortality in children (aged two months to nine years) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We screened articles according to specified inclusion and exclusion criteria, assessed risk of bias using the EPHPP framework, and extracted data on demographic, clinical, and laboratory risk factors for death. We synthesized data descriptively and using Forest plots and did not attempt meta-analysis due to the heterogeneity in study design, definitions, and populations.

Findings

We included 143 studies in this review. Hypoxaemia (low blood oxygen level), decreased conscious state, severe acute malnutrition, and the presence of an underlying chronic condition were the risk factors most strongly and consistently associated with increased mortality in children with pneumonia. Additional important clinical factors that were associated with mortality in the majority of studies included particular clinical signs (cyanosis, pallor, tachypnoea, chest indrawing, convulsions, diarrhoea), chronic comorbidities (anaemia, HIV infection, congenital heart disease, heart failure), as well as other non-severe forms of malnutrition. Important demographic factors associated with mortality in the majority of studies included age <12 months and inadequate immunisation. Important laboratory and investigation findings associated with mortality in the majority of studies included: confirmed Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PJP), consolidation on chest x-ray, pleural effusion on chest x-ray, and leukopenia. Several other demographic, clinical and laboratory findings were associated with mortality less consistently or in a small numbers of studies.

Conclusions

Risk assessment for children with pneumonia should include routine evaluation for hypoxaemia (pulse oximetry), decreased conscious state (e.g. AVPU), malnutrition (severe, moderate, and stunting), and the presence of an underlying chronic condition as these are strongly and consistently associated with increased mortality. Other potentially useful risk factors include the presence of pallor or anaemia, chest indrawing, young age (<12 months), inadequate immunisation, and leukopenia.

Respiratory viruses among pediatric inpatients with acute lower respiratory tract infections in Jinan, China, 2016-2019

The viral etiologies responsible for acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRI) are a major cause of pediatric hospitalization, and some develop severe diseases requiring pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of viruses and risk factors associated with PICU admission among patients hospitalized for ALRI. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected to detect human rhinovirus (HRV), influenza A and B viruses (IAV, IBV), parainfluenza viruses (PIV), and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and adenovirus (ADV) by PCR. Of the 5590 pediatric inpatients enrolled, respiratory viral infection occurred in 2102 (37.60%) patients, including 1846 (33.02%) single and 256 (4.58%) mixed viral infections. Among the nasopharyngeal swabs from pediatric inpatients, HRV accounted for the highest detection rate (16.48%), followed by PIV (8.35%), RSV (7.41%), ADV (4.63%), IAV (3.51%), and IBV (2.08%). The positive rate of viral tests decreased with increasing age and was higher in males (39.29%) than females (34.67%). The prevalence of viral infection was the highest in winter (41.57%) and lowest in autumn (31.78%). Each virus had a seasonal pattern, with peaks occurring in months of their epidemic seasons. RSV infection and the presence of comorbidities including congenital tracheal stenosis, congenital heart disease, metabolic disorder, immunodeficiency, renal disease, gastrointestinal disease and neurological disorder might be associated with the need for PICU admission. Therefore, this study provides useful information for the prevention and control of virus-related respiratory diseases and the early identification of and the intervention in severe cases. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Impact of pulmonary hypertension and congenital heart disease with hemodynamic repercussion on the severity of acute respiratory infections in children under 5 years of age at a pediatric referral center in Colombia, South America

BACKGROUND

Acute respiratory infection is one of the main causes of morbidity in children. Some studies have suggested that pulmonary hypertension and congenital heart disease with haemodynamic repercussion increase the severity of respiratory infections, but there are few publications in developing countries.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study evaluating the impact of pulmonary hypertension and congenital heart disease (CHD) with haemodynamic repercussion as predictors of severity in children under 5 years of age hospitalised for acute respiratory infection.

RESULTS

Altogether, 217 children hospitalised for a respiratory infection who underwent an echocardiogram were evaluated; 62 children were diagnosed with CHD with haemodynamic repercussion or pulmonary hypertension. Independent predictors of admission to intensive care included: pulmonary hypertension (RR 2.14; 95% CI 1.06-4.35, p = 0.034), respiratory syncytial virus (RR 2.52; 95% CI 1.29-4.92, p = 0.006), and bacterial pneumonia (RR 3.09; 95% CI 1.65-5.81, p = 0.000). A significant difference was found in average length of hospital stay in children with the cardiovascular conditions studied (p = 0.000).

CONCLUSIONS

Pulmonary hypertension and CHD with haemodynamic repercussion as well as respiratory syncytial virus and bacterial pneumonia were predictors of severity in children with respiratory infections in this study. Early recognition of cardiovascular risks in paediatric populations is necessary to lessen the impact on respiratory infections.

Viral Etiology of Acute Lower Respiratory Tract Infections in Hospitalized Children in Nagasaki, a Regional City of Japan in 2013-2015

BACKGROUND

Acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRIs) are the most common disease for hospitalized children in Japan. The aim of this study was to identify viruses in children hospitalized for ALRIs and to demonstrate epidemiologic and clinical characteristics in Japan.

METHODS

During a 2-year period from February 2013 to January 2015, we collected nasopharyngeal swab specimens from almost all hospitalized children with ALRIs in Nagasaki, a regional city of Japan, and its environs. Viruses were detected by multiplex polymerase chain reaction from these samples.

RESULTS

We detected one or more viruses from 259 (69%) of 374 patients, 227 of whom were infected with a single virus, 30 with 2, and 2 with 3 viruses. Detected viruses in this study were rhinovirus (46.4%), respiratory syncytial virus (29.7%), human metapneumovirus (6.8%), parainfluenza virus (5.5%), enterovirus D68 (3.4%), influenza virus (2.7%), adenovirus (2.4%), bocavirus (2.0%) and Coxsackie virus (1.0%). We detected a seasonal shift in respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks from the 2013-2014 to the 2014-2015 seasons. There was no significant difference in clinical course and severity among those viruses. Patients with a history of asthma or underlying diseases were older and more frequently required oxygen therapy than previously healthy patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Viral etiology in hospitalized children with ALRIs in Nagasaki, Japan, was similar to that in many other countries. Enterovirus D68, which was recently recognized as a causative agent of severe ALRIs, was also identified in this study area. Severity of ALRIs may depend on underlying disease rather than type of etiologic virus.

Bedside clinical assessment predicts recurrence after hospitalization due to viral lower respiratory tract infection in young children

Infants requiring hospitalization due to a viral lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) have a high risk of developing recurrent respiratory illnesses in early life and asthma beyond childhood. Notably, all validated clinical scales for viral LRTI have focused on predicting acute severity instead of recurrence. We present a novel clinical approach combining individual risk factors with bedside clinical parameters to predict recurrence after viral LRTI hospitalization in young children. A retrospective longitudinal cohort of young children (≤3 years) designed to define clinical predictive factors of recurrent respiratory illnesses within 12 months after hospitalization due to PCR-confirmed viral LRTI. Data collection was through electronic medical record. We included 138 children hospitalized with viral LRTI. Using automatic stepwise logistic model selection, we found that the strongest predictors of recurrence in infants hospitalized for the first time were severe prematurity (≤32 weeks' gestational age, OR=5.19; 95% CI 1.76 to 15.32; p=0.002) and a clinical score that weighted hypoxemia, subcostal retractions and wheezing (OR=3.33; 95% CI 1.59 to 6.98; p<0.001). After the first hospitalization, the strongest predictors of subsequent episodes were wheezing (OR=5.62; 95% CI 1.03 to 30.62; p=0.04) and family history of asthma (OR=5.39; 95% CI 1.04 to 27.96; p=0.04). We found that integrating individual risk factors (eg, prematurity or family history of asthma) with bedside clinical assessment (eg, wheezing, subcostal retractions or hypoxemia) can predict the risk of recurrence after viral LRTI hospitalization in infants. This strategy may enable clinically oriented subsetting of infants with viral LRTI based on individual predictors for recurrent respiratory illnesses during early life.

Pulmonary hypertension during respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis: a risk factor for severity of illness

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus infection is the most frequent cause of acute lower respiratory tract disease in infants. A few reports have suggested that pulmonary hypertension is associated with increased severity of respiratory syncytial virus infection. We sought to determine the association between the pulmonary hypertension detected by echocardiography during respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis and clinical outcomes.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 154 children admitted with respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis who had an echocardiography performed during the admission. The association between pulmonary hypertension and clinical outcomes including mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, prolonged ICU stay (&gt;10 days), tracheal intubation, and need of high frequency oscillator ventilation was evaluated.

RESULTS

Echocardiography detected pulmonary hypertension in 29 patients (18.7%). Pulmonary hypertension was observed more frequently in patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) (n = 11/33, 33%), chronic lung disease of infancy (n = 12/25, 48%), prematurity (&lt;37 weeks gestational age, n = 17/59, 29%), and Down syndrome (n = 4/10, 40%). The presence of pulmonary hypertension was associated with morbidity (p &lt; 0.001) and mortality (p = 0.02). However, in patients without these risk factors (n = 68), pulmonary hypertension was detected in five patients who presented with shock or poor perfusion. Chronic lung disease was associated with pulmonary hypertension (OR = 5.9, 95% CI 2.2-16.3, p = 0.0005). Multivariate logistic analysis demonstrated that pulmonary hypertension is associated with ICU admission (OR = 6.4, 95% CI 2.2-18.8, p = 0.0007), intubation (OR = 4.7, 95% CI 1.8-12.3, p = 0.002), high frequency oscillator ventilation (OR = 8.4, 95% CI 2.95-23.98, p &lt; 0.0001), and prolonged ICU stay (OR = 4.9, 95% CI 2.0-11.7, p = 0.0004).

CONCLUSIONS

Pulmonary hypertension detected by echocardiography during respiratory syncytial virus infection was associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Chronic lung disease was associated with pulmonary hypertension detected during respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis. Routine echocardiography is not warranted for previously healthy, haemodynamically stable patients with respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis.

Predictors of prolonged length of hospital stay for infants with bronchiolitis

Among inpatients suffering from bronchiolitis, approximately a quarter may undergo a prolonged length of stay (LOS) for the treatment of their respiratory condition. However, there have been few research studies that have evaluated variables that may be associated with a prolonged LOS in these patients, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, where the clinical and economic burden of the disease is the greatest. In an analytical single-center cross-sectional study, we included a population of patients with acute bronchiolitis hospitalized between March and June 2016. We collected demographic and clinical information and the LOS of each patient. Prolonged LOS for bronchiolitis was defined as at least one hospital stay of 5 or more days. A total of 303 patients were included, with 176 (58.1%) male and a median (IQR) age of 3.0 (1.0-7.0) months. After controlling for gender, history of bronchopulmonary dysplasia, number of days with respiratory symptoms, the presence of apnea as an initial manifestation of bronchiolitis, and other underlying disease conditions, we found that the independent predictors of prolonged LOS for bronchiolitis in our study population included age (OR 0.92; 95% CI 0.84 to 0.99; p=0.049), history of prematurity (OR 6.34; 95% CI 1.10 to 36.46; p=0.038), respiratory syncytial virus isolation (OR 1.92; 95% CI 1.02 to 3.73; p=0.048), and initial oxygen saturation (OR 0.94; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.98; p=0.048). The factors identified should be taken into account when planning policies to reduce the duration of hospital stay in infants with bronchiolitis.

Influenza and other respiratory viruses: standardizing disease severity in surveillance and clinical trials

INTRODUCTION

Influenza-Like Illness is a leading cause of hospitalization in children. Disease burden due to influenza and other respiratory viral infections is reported on a population level, but clinical scores measuring individual changes in disease severity are urgently needed. Areas covered: We present a composite clinical score allowing individual patient data analyses of disease severity based on systematic literature review and WHO-criteria for uncomplicated and complicated disease. The 22-item ViVI Disease Severity Score showed a normal distribution in a pediatric cohort of 6073 children aged 0-18 years (mean age 3.13; S.D. 3.89; range: 0 to 18.79). Expert commentary: The ViVI Score was correlated with risk of antibiotic use as well as need for hospitalization and intensive care. The ViVI Score was used to track children with influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus, human rhinovirus, and adenovirus infections and is fully compliant with regulatory data standards. The ViVI Disease Severity Score mobile application allows physicians to measure disease severity at the point-of care thereby taking clinical trials to the next level.