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Jayatilaka R, Patel R, Brar M, Tang Y, Jisrawi NM, Chishtie F, Drozd J, Valluri SR. A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission. MATERIALS TODAY. PROCEEDINGS 2021; 54:101-112. [PMID: 34900606 PMCID: PMC8642156 DOI: 10.1016/j.matpr.2021.11.480] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2020] [Revised: 09/14/2021] [Accepted: 11/22/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Disease transmission is studied through disciplines like epidemiology, applied mathematics, and statistics. Mathematical simulation models for transmission have implications in solving public and personal health challenges. The SIR model uses a compartmental approach including dynamic and nonlinear behavior of transmission through three factors: susceptible, infected, and removed (recovered and deceased) individuals. Using the Lambert W Function, we propose a framework to study solutions of the SIR model. This demonstrates the applications of COVID-19 transmission data to model the spread of a real-world disease. Different models of disease including the SIR, SIRmp and SEIRρqr model are compared with respect to their ability to predict disease spread. Physical distancing impacts and personal protection equipment use are discussed with relevance to the COVID-19 spread.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Jayatilaka
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond Street, London N6A 3K7, Canada
| | - R Patel
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond Street, London N6A 3K7, Canada
| | - M Brar
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond Street, London N6A 3K7, Canada
| | - Y Tang
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond Street, London N6A 3K7, Canada
| | - N M Jisrawi
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond Street, London N6A 3K7, Canada
- Mathematics Department, King's University College, University of Western Ontario (UWO), 266 Epworth Avenue, London N6A 2M3, Canada
| | - F Chishtie
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Western Ontario, Canada
| | - J Drozd
- Mathematics Department, Huron University College, UWO, London N6G 1H3, Canada
| | - S R Valluri
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond Street, London N6A 3K7, Canada
- Mathematics Department, King's University College, University of Western Ontario (UWO), 266 Epworth Avenue, London N6A 2M3, Canada
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