Can we associate environmental footprints with production and consumption using Monte Carlo simulation? Case study with pork meat

Epidemiological Data Mining for Assisting with Foodborne Outbreak Investigation

Diseases caused by the consumption of food are a significant but avoidable public health issue, and identifying the source of contamination is a key step in an outbreak investigation to prevent foodborne illnesses. Historical foodborne outbreaks provide rich data on critical attributes such as outbreak factors, food vehicles, and etiologies, and an improved understanding of the relationships between these attributes could provide insights for developing effective food safety interventions. The purpose of this study was to identify hidden patterns underlying the relations between the critical attributes involved in historical foodborne outbreaks through data mining approaches. A statistical analysis was used to identify the associations between outbreak factors and food sources, and the factors that were strongly significant were selected as predictive factors for food vehicles. A multinomial prediction model was built based on factors selected for predicting "simple" foods (beef, dairy, and vegetables) as sources of outbreaks. In addition, the relations between the food vehicles and common etiologies were investigated through text mining approaches (support vector machines, logistic regression, random forest, and naïve Bayes). A support vector machine model was identified as the optimal model to predict etiologies from the occurrence of food vehicles. Association rules also indicated the specific food vehicles that have strong relations to the etiologies. Meanwhile, a food ingredient network describing the relationships between foods and ingredients was constructed and used with Monte Carlo simulation to predict possible ingredients from foods that cause an outbreak. The simulated results were confirmed with foods and ingredients that are already known to cause historical foodborne outbreaks. The method could provide insights into the prediction of the possible ingredient sources of contamination when given the name of a food. The results could provide insights into the early identification of food sources of contamination and assist in future outbreak investigations. The data-driven approach will provide a new perspective and strategies for discovering hidden knowledge from massive data.

Quality and Oral Processing Characteristics of Traditional Serbian Ćevap Influenced by Game Meat

This study analyzes the influence of two different types of game meat (deer and wild boar) in relation to quality characteristics and oral processing attributes of skinless sausage. The goal of this study was to compare grilled game-meat-based "ćevap" with conventional pork-meat-based samples. Research comprised of color analysis, evaluation of textural components, testing degree of difference, temporal dominance of sensations, calculation of main oral processing attributes, and examination of particle size distribution. The results show that oral processing attributes are similar in between samples and concur with results of the pork-based sample. This confirms the working hypothesis that it is possible to make game-meat-based "ćevap" fully comparable with conventional pork meat products. In parallel, color and flavor characteristics are influenced by the type of game meat in the sample. Most of the dominant sensory attributes that occurred during mastication were game meat flavor and juiciness.

Consumers’ Preference for the Consumption of the Fresh Black Slavonian Pig’s Meat

There are limited data on Croatian consumers’ preferences and willingness to pay for fresh meat from the Black Slavonian pig. The survey was conducted on a sample of n = 410 Croatian consumers, using a hypothetical choice experiment to examine how food attributes and information treatment influence consumers’ decisions regarding fresh ham meat of the Black Slavonian pig. The hypothetical choice experiment was conducted using fresh boneless pork ham with three attributes (price, colour and geographical information) as the focuses of the product. Croatian consumers were randomly assigned to one of two treatment options (control or information) in an online survey to investigate the role of information. Our results indicate that Croatian consumers have a clear preference for fresh boneless ham from the Black Slavonian pig produced in both production systems and labelled as reared in continental Croatia and with a protected designation of origin (PDO) label, compared with fresh boneless ham produced from conventionally reared pigs (intensive rearing—indoor rearing) without the label. The results show that the information given to consumers about the production system, meat colour and geographical information positively influenced consumer choice. Appropriate labelling and information about the product can positively influence consumers’ preferences, which indicates the importance of highlighting the traditional characteristics (production system, darker colour of the meat and production area) of fresh meat from Black Slavonian pig on the label in promotional activities.

Assessment of Environmental Impacts from Different Perspectives-Case Study of Egg Value Chain System in Serbia

The environmental performance of various aspects of animal origin food supply chains has been the focus of research in recent years, and has provided useful information. However, there were no studies that covered the entire egg supply chain from different perspectives. The aim of this study was to analyze the majority of environmental impacts in the table egg supply chain comprising of three subsystems: farms, retail outlets and households, with quantification of each individual subsystem and the entire supply chain. All data were gathered from 30 farms, 50 retail stores and 300 households in Serbia. In parallel, the perception and ranking of environmental impacts along the supply chain were also evaluated. Finally, the quality function deployment for the environment was used to determine the degree of correlation between the set of environmental requirements and the identified environmental impacts. Results revealed that the greatest environmental impacts come from the production of feed for laying hens and the use of natural resources, and they contribute the most to the pollution of each individual environmental indicator. Additionally, the results show the differences in the environmental impacts of each individual subsystem and identify opportunities to mitigate them through the optimization of animal feed, energy consumption and household food waste management. The overall perspective of the egg supply chain points to climate change effects as the most important. The differences in the perceptions of environmental impacts along the entire egg supply chain suggest the need for promotion of mitigation strategies to all stakeholders that would encourage them to achieve sustainable development goals.

The impact of the epidemic experience on the recovery of production of pig farmers after the outbreak-Evidence from the impact of African swine fever (ASF) in Chinese pig farming

The African swine fever (ASF) has triggered considerable shocks to the pig farming industry, which has become a significant animal disease epidemic. The study explores the effect of epidemic experience on post-outbreak production recovery from resilience and risk perception based on 340 micro-survey data from Sichuan, Henan, and Shandong provinces. Epidemic experience has been shown to impact the degree of post-outbreak production recovery positively, and farmers who have endured epidemics are more likely to recover their production after outbreaks. The mechanistic study indicates that past epidemics in African swine fever shocks can effectively improve farmers' cognitive resilience and management capability, enhance recovery, and reduce risk perception in the aftermath of production recovery. In order to alleviate the endogenous problems caused by selection bias, missing variables, and two-way causality. This paper uses factor analysis to comprehensively measure production recovery capacity and production risk perception, and uses propensity score matching(PSM), instrumental variable method and replacement measurement methods to conduct robustness tests, and find the conclusions are still robust. The empirical analysis shows that the experience of the epidemic will promote the recovery of farmers after the outbreak; the experience of the epidemic will significantly impact the recovery of production after the outbreak for both free-range and professional farmers.

Shelf Life Extension of Chilled Pork by Optimal Ultrasonicated Ceylon Spinach (Basella alba) Extracts: Physicochemical and Microbial Properties

The effect of ultrasonication on the antioxidant and antibacterial properties of Ceylon spinach (Basella alba) extracts (CE) and the shelf life of chilled pork with CE were studied. The CE were ultrasonicated at different power levels (60–100%) for 10–40 min in an ultrasonic bath with the rise of antioxidant activities (p ≤ 0.05) proportional to the ultrasonication time. The additional investigation of antibacterial activities showed that the ultrasonicated extracts (100 mg/mL) could inhibit and inactivate Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli with the optimal condition of 80% power for 40 min. For shelf life testing, fresh pork treated with the ultrasonicated extracts at 100 and 120 mg/mL had lower values of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) than the control (without dipping). For food safety as measured by the total microbial count, the fresh pork dipped with 100–120 mg/mL CE extract could be kept at 0 °C for 7 days, 2 to 3 days longer than control meat at 0 and 4 °C, respectively. A sensory evaluation using a nine-point hedonic scale showed that fresh pork dipped with 100-mg/mL CE extracts was accepted by consumers. It is suggested that CE extracts can be applied in the food industry to enhance the quality and extend the shelf life of meat products.