Performance of prognostic scores and staging systems in predicting long-term survival outcomes after surgery for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

Prognostic value of the advanced lung cancer inflammation index in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

The advanced lung cancer inflammation index (ALI), which combines inflammation and nutrition data, was recently proposed as a prognostic biomarker. We assessed the impact of ALI on overall survival (OS) among patients undergoing surgery for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).

METHODS

Patients who underwent surgery for ICC were identified from an international cohort. ALI was calculated as body-mass index (BMI)∗albumin/neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; patients were categorized into "low-" and "high-ALI" using log-rank statistics. The impact of ALI on OS was compared against other inflammatory markers (i.e., neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR], platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio [PLR], systemic immune inflammation index [SII = platelets∗NLR]) using Harrell's Concordance index (C-index) and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). To minimize intergroup differences, propensity score matching was employed.

RESULTS

Among 1045 patients, more than one-half of individuals underwent major hepatectomy (n = 582, 55.7 %), median tumor size was 5.5 cm (IQR, 3.8-7.8), and median ALI was 38.9 (IQR 26.5-57.2). On multivariate analysis, low ALI was an independent risk factor for worse OS (HR 1.21, 95 % CI 1.01-1.46; p = 0.04). Patients with low ALI had worse 5-year OS (36.9 % vs. 49.9 %; p < 0.001), which remained significant after PSM (36.9 % vs. 41.3 %; p = 0.039). ALI had a comparable discriminatory ability compared with NLR, PLR, and SII (C-index: 0.646 vs. 0.644 vs. 0.640 vs. 0.641, respectively), yet had a lower AIC (5475.31 vs. 5546.80 vs. 5550.45 vs. 5548.62, respectively) suggesting slightly better model fit and accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

ALI was an independent predictor of OS among patients undergoing surgery for ICC. Nutritional and inflammatory markers should be incorporated into predictive models to improve prognostic stratification.

Establishing prognostic models for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma based on immune cells

BACKGROUND

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is a malignant liver tumor that is challenging to treat and manage and current prognostic models for the disease are inefficient or ineffective. Tumor-associated immune cells are critical for tumor development and progression. The main goal of this study was to establish models based on tumor-associated immune cells for predicting the overall survival of patients undergoing surgery for ICC.

AIM

To establish 1-year and 3-year prognostic models for ICC after surgical resection.

METHODS

Immunohistochemical staining was performed for CD4, CD8, CD20, pan-cytokeratin (CK), and CD68 in tumors and paired adjacent tissues from 141 patients with ICC who underwent curative surgery. Selection of variables was based on regression diagnostic procedures and goodness-of-fit tests (PH assumption). Clinical parameters and pathological diagnoses, combined with the distribution of immune cells in tumors and paired adjacent tissues, were utilized to establish 1- and 3-year prognostic models.

RESULTS

This is an important application of immune cells in the tumor microenvironment. CD4, CD8, CD20, and CK were included in the establishment of our prognostic model by stepwise selection, whereas CD68 was not significantly associated with the prognosis of ICC. By integrating clinical data associated with ICC, distinct prognostic models were derived for 1- and 3-year survival outcomes using variable selection. The 1-year prediction model yielded a C-index of 0.76 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.65-0.87 and the 3-year prediction model produced a C-index of 0.69 (95%CI: 0.65-0.73). Internal validation yielded a C-index of 0.761 (95%CI: 0.669-0.853) for the 1-year model and 0.693 (95%CI: 0.642-0.744) for the 3-year model.

CONCLUSION

We developed Cox regression models for 1-year and 3-year survival predictions of patients with ICC who underwent resection, which has positive implications for establishing a more comprehensive prognostic model for ICC based on tumor immune microenvironment and immune cell changes in the future.

Long-term survivors after curative-intent resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

OBJECTIVES

The objective of the current study was to characterize prognostic factors related to long-term recurrence-free survival after curative-intent resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).

METHODS

Data on patients who underwent curative-intent resection for ICC between 2000 and 2020 were collected from an international multi-institutional database. Prognostic factors were investigated among patients who recurred within 5 years versus long-term survivors who survived more than 5 years with no recurrence.

RESULTS

Among 635 patients who underwent curative-intent resection for ICC, 104 (16.4%) patients were long-term survivors with no recurrence beyond 5 years after surgery. Patients who survived for more than 5 years with no recurrence were more likely to have less aggressive tumor features, as well as have undergone an R0 resection versus patients who recurred within 5 years after resection. On multivariable analysis, tumor size (>5 cm) (HR: 1.535, 95% CI: 1.254-1.879), satellite lesions (HR: 1.253, 95% CI: 1.003-1.564), and lymph node metastasis (HR: 1.733, 95% CI: 1.349-2.227) were independently associated with recurrence within 5 years. Patients who recurred beyond 5 years (n = 23), 2-5 years (n = 60), and within 2 years (n = 471) had an incrementally worse post-recurrence survival (PRS, 28.0 vs. 20.0 vs. 12.0 months, p = 0.032). Among patients with N0 status, tumor size (>5 cm) (HR: 1.612, 95% CI: 1.087-2.390) and perineural invasion (PNI) (HR: 1.562,95% CI: 1.081-2.255) were risk factors associated with recurrence. Among patients with N1 disease, only a minority (5/128, 3.9%) of patients survived with no recurrence to 5 years.

CONCLUSION

Roughly 1 in 6 patients survived for more than 5 years with no recurrence following curative-intent resection of ICC. Among N0 patients, tumor recurrence was associated with tumor size and PNI. Only a small subset of N1 patients experienced long-term survival.

Preoperative platelet count as an independent predictor of long-term outcomes among patients undergoing resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

An elevated platelet count may reflect neoplastic and inflammatory states, with cytokine-driven overproduction of platelets. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic utility of high platelet count among patients undergoing curative-intent liver surgery for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).

METHODS

An international, multi-institutional cohort was used to identify patients undergoing curative-intent liver resection for ICC (2000-2020). A high platelet count was defined as platelets >300 *109/L. The relationship between preoperative platelet count, cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) was examined.

RESULTS

Among 825 patients undergoing curative-intent resection for ICC, 139 had a high platelet count, which correlated with multifocal disease, lymph nodes metastasis, poor to undifferentiated grade, and microvascular invasion. Patients with high platelet counts had worse 5-year (35.8% vs. 46.7%, p = 0.009) CSS and OS (24.8% vs. 39.8%, p < 0.001), relative to patients with a low platelet count. After controlling for relevant clinicopathologic factors, high platelet count remained an adverse independent predictor of CSS (HR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.02-2.09) and OS (HR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.14-2.22).

CONCLUSIONS

High platelet count was associated with worse tumor characteristics and poor long-term CSS and OS. Platelet count represents a readily-available laboratory value that may preoperatively improve risk-stratification of patients undergoing curative-intent liver resection for ICC.

Preoperative MRI features predicting very early recurrence of intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma after R0 resection: a comparison with the AJCC 8th edition staging system

PURPOSE

This study aimed to establish a nomogram based on preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features to predict the very early recurrence (VER, less than 6 months) of intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma (IMCC) after R0 resection.

METHODS

This study enrolled a group of 193 IMCC patients from our institution between March 2010 and January 2022. Patients were allocated into the development cohort (n = 137) and the validation cohort (n = 56), randomly, and the preoperative clinical and MRI features were collected. Univariate and multivariate stepwise logistic regression assessments were adopted to assess predictors of VER. Nomogram was constructed and certificated in the validation cohort. The performance of the prediction nomogram was evaluated by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. The performance of the nomogram was compared with the T stage of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition staging system.

RESULTS

Fifty-three patients (27.5%) experienced VER of the tumor and 140 patients (72.5%) with non-VER, during the follow-up period. After multivariate stepwise logistic regression, number of lesions, diffuse hypoenhancement on arterial phase, necorsis and suspicious lymph nodes were independently associated with VER. The nomogram demonstrated significantly higher area under the curve (AUC) of 0.813 than T stage (AUC = 0.666, P = 0.006) in the development cohort, whereas in the validation cohort, the nomogram showed better discrimination performance, with an AUC of 0.808 than T stage (0.705) with no significantly difference (P = 0.230). Decision curve analysis reflected the clinical net benefit of the nomogram.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram based on preoperative MRI features is a reliable tool to predict VER for patients with IMCC after R0 resection. This nomogram will be helpful to improve survival prediction and individualized treatment.

Molecular Detection of FGFR2 Rearrangements in Resected Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinomas: FISH Could Be An Ideal Method in Patients with Histological Small Duct Subtype

Background and Aims

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is a subtype of primary liver cancer for which effective therapeutic agents are lacking. Fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (FGFR2) has become a promising therapeutic target in ICC; however, its incidence and optimum testing method have not been fully assessed. This study investigated the rearrangement of FGFR2 in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma using multiple molecular detection methods.

Methods

The samples and clinical data of 167 patients who underwent surgical resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in Zhongshan hospital, Fudan university were collected. The presence of FGFR2 gene rearrangement was confirmed using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and targeted next-generation sequencing (NGS). FGFR2 protein expression was determined using immunohistochemistry (IHC). The concordance between the methods was statistically compared. PD-L1 expression was also assessed in this cohort. The clinicopathological characteristics and genomic profile related to FGFR2 rearrangements were also analyzed to assist candidate-screening for targeted therapies.

Results

FGFR2 rearrangement was detected in 21 of the 167 ICC cases (12.5%) using FISH. NGS analysis revealed that FGFR2 rearrangement was present in 16 of the 20 FISH-positive cases, which was consistent with the FISH results (kappa value=0.696, p<0.01). IHC showed that 80 of the 167 cases (48%) were positive for FGFR2 expression, which was discordant with both FISH and NGS results. By comparison, FGFR2-positivity tended to correlate with unique clinicopathological subgroups, featuring early clinical stage, histologically small duct subtype, and reduced mucus production (P<0.05), with improved overall survival (p<0.05). FGFR2-positivity was not associated with PD-L1 expression in ICCs. In genome research, we identified eight partner genes fused with FGFR2, among which FGFR2-BICC1 was the most common fusion type. BAP1, CDKN2A, and CDKN2B were the most common concomitant genetic alterations of FGFR2, whereas KRAS and IDH1 mutations were mutually exclusive to FGFR2 rearrangements.

Conclusions

FISH achieved satisfactory concordance with NGS, has potential value for FGFR2 screening for targeted therapies. FGFR2 detection should be prioritized for unique clinical subgroups in ICC, which features a histological small duct subtype, early clinical stage, and reduced mucus production.

AZGP1 activation by lenvatinib suppresses intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma epithelial-mesenchymal transition through the TGF-β1/Smad3 pathway

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is a primary liver malignancy and is characterized by highly aggressive and malignant biological behavior. Currently, effective treatment strategies are limited. The effect of lenvatinib on ICC is unknown. In this study, we found that AZGP1 was the key target of lenvatinib in ICC, and its low expression in ICC cancer tissues was associated with a poor prognosis in patients. Lenvatinib is a novel AZGP1 agonist candidate for ICC that inhibits ICC-EMT by regulating the TGF-β1/Smad3 signaling pathway in an AZGP1-dependent manner. Furthermore, we found that lenvatinib could increase AZGP1 expression by increasing the acetylation level of H3K27Ac in the promoter region of the AZGP1 gene, thereby inhibiting EMT in ICC cells. In conclusion, lenvatinib activates AZGP1 by increasing the acetylation level of H3K27Ac on the AZGP1 promoter region and regulates the TGF-β1/Smad3 signaling pathway in an AZGP1-dependent manner to inhibit ICC-EMT. This study offers new insight into the mechanism of lenvatinib in the treatment of ICC and provides a theoretical basis for new treatment methods.

Development and Validation of a Machine-Learning Model to Predict Early Recurrence of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The high incidence of early recurrence after hepatectomy for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) has a detrimental effect on overall survival (OS). Machine-learning models may improve the accuracy of outcome prediction for malignancies.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for ICC were identified using an international database. Three machine-learning models were trained to predict early recurrence (< 12 months after hepatectomy) using 14 clinicopathologic characteristics. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was used to assess their discrimination ability.

RESULTS

In this study, 536 patients were randomly assigned to training (n = 376, 70.1%) and testing (n = 160, 29.9%) cohorts. Overall, 270 (50.4%) patients experienced early recurrence (training: n = 150 [50.3%] vs testing: n = 81 [50.6%]), with a median tumor burden score (TBS) of 5.6 (training: 5.8 [interquartile range {IQR}, 4.1-8.1] vs testing: 5.5 [IQR, 3.7-7.9]) and metastatic/undetermined nodes (N1/NX) in the majority of the patients (training: n = 282 [75.0%] vs testing n = 118 [73.8%]). Among the three different machine-learning algorithms, random forest (RF) demonstrated the highest discrimination in the training/testing cohorts (RF [AUC, 0.904/0.779] vs support vector machine [AUC, 0.671/0.746] vs logistic regression [AUC, 0.668/0.745]). The five most influential variables in the final model were TBS, perineural invasion, microvascular invasion, CA 19-9 lower than 200 U/mL, and N1/NX disease. The RF model successfully stratified OS relative to the risk of early recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine-learning prediction of early recurrence after ICC resection may inform tailored counseling, treatment, and recommendations. An easy-to-use calculator based on the RF model was developed and made available online.

Call to Improve the Quality of Prediction Tools for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma Resection: A Critical Appraisal, Systematic Review, and External Validation Study

Objective

To conduct a systematic review, critical appraisal, and external validation of survival prediction tools for patients undergoing intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) resection.

Summary background data

Despite the development of several survival prediction tools in recent years for patients undergoing iCCA resections, there is a lack of critical appraisal and external validation of these models.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review and critical appraisal of survival and recurrence prediction models for patients undergoing curative-intent iCCA resections. Studies were evaluated based on their model design, risk of bias, reporting, performance, and validation results. We identified the best model and externally validated it using our institution's data.

Results

This review included a total of 31 studies, consisting of 26 studies with original prediction tools and 5 studies that only conducted external validations. Among the 26, 54% of the studies conducted internal validations, 46% conducted external validations, and only 1 study scored a low risk of bias. Harrell's C-statistics ranged from 0.67 to 0.76 for internal validation and from 0.64 to 0.75 for external validation. Only 81% of the studies reported model calibration. Our external validation of the best model (Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma [ICC]-Metroticket) estimated Harrell's and Uno's C-statistics of 0.67 (95% CI: 0.56-0.77) and Uno's time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.53-0.88), with a Brier score of 0.20 (95% CI: 0.15-0.26) and good calibration plots.

Conclusions

Many prediction models have been published in recent years, but their quality remains poor, and minimal methodological quality improvement has been observed. The ICC-Metroticket was selected as the best model (Uno's time-dependent AUC of 0.71) for 5-year overall survival prediction in patients undergoing curative-intent iCCA resection.

Predicting Overall Survival for Patients with Malignant Mesothelioma Following Radiotherapy via Interpretable Machine Learning

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVES

Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare but aggressive cancer arising from the cells of the thoracic pleura with a poor prognosis. We aimed to develop a model, via interpretable machine learning (ML) methods, predicting overall survival for MPM following radiotherapy based on dosimetric metrics as well as patient characteristics.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Sixty MPM (37 right, 23 left) patients treated on a Tomotherapy unit between 2013 and 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients received 45 Gy (25 fractions). The multivariable Cox regression (Cox PH) model and Survival Support Vector Machine (sSVM) were applied to build predictive models of overall survival (OS) based on clinical, dosimetric, and combined variables.

RESULTS

Significant differences in dosimetric endpoints for critical structures, i.e., the lung, heart, liver, kidney, and stomach, were observed according to target laterality. The OS was found to be insignificantly different (p = 0.18) between MPM patients who tested left- and right-sided, with 1-year OS of 77.3% and 75.0%, respectively. With Cox PH regression, considering dosimetric variables for right-sided patients alone, an increase in PTV_Min, Total_Lung_PTV_Mean, Contra_Lung_Volume, Contra_Lung_V20, Esophagus_Mean, and Heart_Volume had a greater hazard to all-cause death, while an increase in Total_Lung_PTV_V20, Contra_Lung_V5, and Esophagus_Max had a lower hazard to all-cause death. Considering clinical variables alone, males and increases in N stage had greater hazard to all-cause death; considering both clinical and dosimetric variables, increases in N stage, PTV_Mean, PTV_Min, and esophagus_Mean had greater hazard to all-cause death, while increases in T stage and Heart_V30 had lower hazard to all-cause-death. In terms of C-index, the Cox PH model and sSVM performed similarly and fairly well when considering clinical and dosimetric variables independently or jointly.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical and dosimetric variables may predict the overall survival of mesothelioma patients, which could guide personalized treatment planning towards a better treatment response. The identified predictors and their impact on survival offered additional value for translational application in clinical practice.

Physiological stress level and screening for malnutrition as preoperative predictors of postoperative complications in pancreatic surgery: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Assessment of 'physiological stress levels' and 'nutritional status' before surgery is important for predicting complications and indirect interventions on the pancreas. The aim of this study was to determine neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and nutritional risk index (NRI) indicators before surgery to predict 90-day complications and mortality in a cohort of patients with complicated chronic pancreatitis and cancer of the head of the pancreas.

METHODS

We evaluated preoperative levels of NLR and NRI among 225 subjects treated at different centres located in three countries. Short-term outcomes included length of hospital stay, postoperative complications, and mortality at 90 days and were appreciated based on NLR and NRI. The level of physiological stress was divided according by the formulas: neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) = (neutrophil count, %)/(lymphocyte count, %). The nutritional state of the patients was divided according to the INR: NRI = (1.519 × serum albumin, g/L) + (41.7 × present weight, kg / usual weight, kg)].

RESULTS

All patients were operated. An analysis of the operations performed in three institutions demonstrated mortality in chronic pancreatitis and pancreatic pseudocysts in 1.4%, in chronic pancreatitis and the presence of an inflammatory mass mainly in the pancreatic head in 1.2%, and in cancer of the pancreatic head in 5.9%. The mean preoperative NLR was normal in 33.8% of the patients, the mild physiologic stress level was 54.7%, and the moderate was 11.5% before surgery. 10.2% of patients had a normal nutritional status, 20% had mild, 19.6% had moderate, and 50.2% had severe malnutrition. In a univariate analysis, at the cutoff of NLR ≥ 9.5 (AUC = 0.803) and the cutoff of NRI ≤ 98.5 (AUC = 0.801), increasing the risk of complications was observed (hazard ratio, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.247-3.250, p = 0.006), but at the cutoff of NRI ≤ 83.55 (AUC = 0.81), we observed a survival difference in operated patients (hazard ratio, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.334-3.477, p = 0.0025).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated that NLR and NRI were predictors of postoperative complications, but only NRI was a predictor of 90-day mortality in patients after surgery.

Optimizing Circulating Tumour DNA Use in the Perioperative Setting for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: Diagnosis, Screening, Minimal Residual Disease Detection and Treatment Response Monitoring

In this review, we present the current evidence and future perspectives on the use of circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) in the diagnosis, management and understanding the prognosis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) undergoing surgery. Liquid biopsies or ctDNA maybe utilized to: (1) determine the molecular profile of the tumour and therefore guide the selection of molecular targeted therapy in the neoadjuvant setting, (2) form a surveillance tool for the detection of minimal residual disease or cancer recurrence after surgery, and (3) diagnose and screen for early iCCA detection in high-risk populations. The potential for ctDNA can be tumour-informed or -uninformed depending on the goals of its use. Future studies will require ctDNA extraction technique validations, with standardizations of both the platforms and the timing of ctDNA collections.

Albumin-Bilirubin Grade and Tumor Burden Score Predict Outcomes Among Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma After Hepatic Resection: a Multi-Institutional Analysis

BACKGROUND

The prognostic role of tumor burden score (TBS) relative to albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade among patients undergoing curative-intent resection of ICC has not been examined.

METHODS

We identified patients who underwent curative-intent resection for ICC between 1990 and 2017 from a multi-institutional database. Multivariable analysis was performed to assess the effect of TBS relative to ALBI grade on both short- and long-term outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 724 patients, 360 (49.7%) patients had low TBS and low ALBI grade, 142 (19.6%) patients had low TBS and high ALBI grade, 138 (19.1%) patients had high TBS and low ALBI grade, and 84 patients (11.6%) had high TBS and high ALBI grade. Decreased tumor burden was associated with better long-term outcomes among patients with both low (5-year OS; low TBS vs. high TBS: 52.4% vs 21.4%; p < 0.001) and high ALBI grade (5-year OS; low TBS vs. high TBS: 40.7% vs 12.0%; p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, higher ALBI grade was associated with greater odds of an extended hospital LOS (> 10 days) (OR 2.80, 95%CI 1.62-4.82; p < 0.001), perioperative transfusion (OR 2.04, 95%CI 1.25-3.36; p = 0.005), 90-day mortality (OR 2.56, 95%CI 1.12-5.81; p = 0.025), as well as a major complication (OR 1.99, 95%CI 1.13-3.49; p = 0.016) among patients with similar tumor burden. Of note, patients with high TBS and high ALBI grade had markedly worse overall survival compared with patients who had low TBS and low ALBI grade disease (HR 2.27; 95%CI 1.44-3.59; p < 0.001). Importantly, high TBS and high ALBI grade were strongly associated with both early recurrence (88.1%%) and 5-year risk of death (96.4%).

CONCLUSION

Both TBS (i.e., tumor morphology) and ALBI grade (i.e., hepatic function reserve) were strong predictors of outcomes among patients undergoing ICC resection. There was an interplay between TBS and ALBI grade relative to patient prognosis after hepatic resection of ICC with high ALBI grade predicting worse outcomes among ICC patients with different TBS.

Prognostic influence of multiple hepatic lesions in resectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Presence of multiple hepatic lesions in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is included in staging as a negative prognostic factor, but both prognostic value and therapeutic implications remain debated. The aim of this study was to systematically review the prognostic influence of multiple lesions on survival after resection for iCCA, with stratification for distribution and number of lesions.

METHODS

Medline and Embase were systematically searched to identify records (2010-2021) reporting survival for patients undergoing primary resection for iCCA. Included were original articles reporting overall survival, with data on multiple lesions including tumour distribution (satellites/other multiple lesions) and/or number. For meta-analysis, the random effects model and inverse variance method were used. PRISMA 2020 guidelines were followed.

RESULTS

Thirty-one studies were included for review. For meta-analysis, nine studies reporting data on the prognostic influence of satellite lesions (2737 patients) and six studies reporting data on multiple lesions other than satellites (1589 patients) were included. Satellite lesions (hazard ratio 1.89, 95% confidence interval 1.67-2.13) and multiple lesions other than satellites (hazard ratio 2.41, 95% confidence interval 1.72-3.37) were significant negative prognostic factors. Data stratified for tumour number, while limited, indicated increased risk per additional lesion.

CONCLUSION

Satellite lesions, as well as multiple lesions other than satellites, was a negative prognostic factor in resectable iCCA. Considering the prognostic impact, both tumour distribution and number of lesions should be evaluated together with other risk factors to allow risk stratification for iCCA patients with multiple lesions, rather than precluding resection for the entire patient group.

Preoperative Serum Markers and Risk Classification in Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: A Multicenter Retrospective Study

Accurate risk stratification selects patients who are expected to benefit most from surgery. This retrospective study enrolled 225 Japanese patients with intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinoma (ICC) who underwent hepatectomy between January 2009 and December 2020 and identified preoperative blood test biomarkers to formulate a classification system that predicted prognosis. The optimal cut-off values of blood test parameters were determined by ROC curve analysis, with Cox univariate and multivariate analyses identifying prognostic factors. Risk classifications were established using classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. CART analysis revealed decision trees for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) and created three risk classifications based on machine learning of preoperative serum markers. Five-year rates differed significantly (p < 0.001) between groups: 60.4% (low-risk), 22.8% (moderate-risk), and 4.1% (high-risk) for RFS and 69.2% (low-risk), 32.3% (moderate-risk), and 9.2% (high-risk) for OS. No difference in OS was observed between patients in the low-risk group with or without postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy, although OS improved in the moderate group and was prolonged significantly in the high-risk group receiving chemotherapy. Stratification of patients with ICC who underwent hepatectomy into three risk groups for RFS and OS identified preoperative prognostic factors that predicted prognosis and were easy to understand and apply clinically.

The focus clinical research in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), highly invasive and highly heterogeneous, has a poor prognosis. It has been confirmed that many risk factors are associated with ICC including intrahepatic lithiasis, primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), congenital abnormalities of the bile ducts, parasite infection, toxic exposures chronic liver disease (viral infection and cirrhosis) and metabolic abnormalities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in the clinical diagnosis and treatment of ICC. Advances in functional and molecular imaging techniques offer the possibility for more accurate preoperative assessment and detection of recurrence. Moreover, the combination of molecular typing and traditional clinical pathological typing provides accurate guarantee for clinical decision-making. Surgical resection is still the only radical treatment for ICC, while R0 resection, lymph node dissection, postoperative adjuvant therapy and recurrence resectomy have been confirmed to be beneficial for patients. New therapies including local therapy, molecular targeted therapy and immunotherapy are developing rapidly, which brings hopeful future for advanced ICC. The combination of traditional therapy and new therapy is the future development direction.

Prognostic factors for patients with mass-forming intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: A case series of 68 patients

BACKGROUND

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is the second most common primary liver cancer in humans after hepatocellular carcinoma and a rare epithelial malignancy that results in a poor prognosis. According to the Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan classification, ICC can be divided into three types: Mass-forming (MF) type, periductal-infiltrating (PI) type, and intraductal-growth type. The MF type is the most common, accounting for 57.1-83.6% of ICCs. Nevertheless, little is known about the epidemiology and treatment of MF ICC.

AIM

To examine the prognostic factors for patients with MF ICC.

METHODS

We carried out a retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with MF ICC treated at the Faculty of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery of Chinese PLA General Hospital between January 2008 and December 2018. According to the treatment received, the patients were divided into either a resection group or an exploration group.

RESULTS

The pooled 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates in the 68 patients with MF ICC were 66.5%, 36.3%, and 9.3%, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed that surgical resection (P < 0.001), nodal metastasis (P < 0.001), tumor location (P = 0.039), vascular invasion (P < 0.001), ascites (P < 0.001), and differentiation (P = 0.009) were significantly associated with the prognosis and survival of MF ICC. Multivariate analysis revealed that ascites (hazard ratio [HR] = 5.6, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6-18.9, P = 0.006) and vascular invasion (HR = 2.5, 95%CI: 1.0-6.1, P = 0.045) were independent risk factors for MF ICC. The pooled 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates in the 19 patients of the exploration group were 5.3%, 5.3%, and 0, respectively. Among the 49 patients who underwent surgical resection, the pooled 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 93.5%, 49.7%, and 14.4%, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that vascular invasion (HR = 3.1, 95%CI: 1.2-8.5, P = 0.024) and nodal metastasis (HR = 3.2, 95%CI: 1.4-7.6, P = 0.008) were independent prognostic risk factors for surgical resection patients.

CONCLUSION

The prognosis of MF ICC patients is dismal, especially those with ascites or vascular invasion. Surgical resection is a key factor in improving overall survival in patients with MF ICC, and vascular invasion and lymph node metastasis affect the efficacy of surgical resection.

A blood-based noninvasive miRNA signature for predicting survival outcomes in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The prognosis in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is generally poor. To improve treatment selection, we sought to identify microRNA (miRNA) signature associated with survival outcomes in ICC.

METHODS

We first analysed the miRNA expression profiles of primary ICC from two public datasets to identify a miRNA panel to detect patients for short-term survival. We then analysed 309 specimens, including 241 FFPE samples from two clinical cohorts (training: n = 177; validation: n = 64) and matched plasma samples (n = 68), and developed a risk-stratification model incorporating the panel and CA 19-9 levels to predict survival outcomes in ICC.

RESULTS

We identified a 7-miRNA panel that robustly classified patients with poor outcomes in the discovery cohorts (AUC = 0.80 and 0.88, respectively). We subsequently trained this miRNA panel in a clinical cohort (AUC = 0.83) and evaluated its performance in an independent validation cohort (AUC = 0.82) and plasma samples from the additional validation cohort (AUC = 0.78). Patients in both clinical cohorts who were classified as high-risk had significantly worse prognosis (p < 0.01). The risk-stratification model demonstrated superior performance compared to models (AUC = 0.85).

CONCLUSIONS

We established a novel miRNA signature that could robustly predict survival outcomes in resected tissues and liquid biopsies to improve the clinical management of patients with ICC.

A National Assessment of T2 Staging for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma and the Poor Prognosis Associated with Multifocality

BACKGROUND

T2 intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is defined as a solitary tumors with vascular invasion or multifocal tumors including satellite lesions, multiple lesions, and intrahepatic metastases. This study aimed to evaluate the prognosis associated with multifocal tumors.

METHODS

The National Cancer Database was queried from 2004 to 2017 for patients with non-metastatic ICC. The patients were grouped based on T2 staging, multifocality, and lymph node involvement.

RESULTS

The study enrolled and classified 4887 patients into clinical (c) stage groups as follows: 15.2% with solitary T2N0 (sT2N0) tumors, 21.3% with multifocal T2N0 (mT2N0) tumors, and 63.5% with node-positive (TxN1) disease. Patients with (c)sT2N0 tumors had higher rates of surgical resection than those with (c)mT2N0 or (c)TxN1 disease (33.5% vs 19.7% vs 15.0%; p < 0.01). Median overall survival (OS) was better for the patients with (c)sT2N0 tumors than for those with multifocal and node-positive disease (15.4 vs 10.4 vs 10.4 months; p < 0.01). On multivariate analysis, (c)sT2N0 tumors were associated with better OS than (c)mT2N0 tumors [hazard ratio (HR), 1.31; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.17-1.46; p < 0.01] or (c)TxN1 disease (HR,1.41; 95% CI 1.28-1.56; p < 0.01). In a subset analysis based on pathologic (p) staging of patients who underwent surgical resection with regional lymphadenectomy, multivariate analysis demonstrated that (p)sT2N0 tumors were associated with better OS than (p)mT2N0 tumors (HR,1.40; 95% CI 1.03-1.92; p = 0.03) or (p)TxN1 disease (HR, 2.05; 95% CI 1.62-2.58; p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Multifocal T2N0 ICC is associated with poor OS and has a disparate prognosis compared with solitary T2N0 disease, even among patients who undergo resection. Future staging criteria should account for the poor outcomes associated with multifocal ICC.

Tumor Necrosis Impacts Prognosis of Patients Undergoing Resection for T1 Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The prognostic impact of tumor necrosis among patients undergoing resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) remains ill-defined.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for ICC between 2000 and 2017 were identified using a multi-institutional database. The association of pathologic tumor necrosis with overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) was examined.

RESULTS

Among 757 patients who underwent resection for ICC, tumor necrosis was present in 384 (50.7%) patients (no necrosis: n = 373, 49.3%; <50% necrosis: n = 291, 38.4%; ≥50% necrosis: n = 93, 12.3%). Tumor necrosis was associated with worse OS (5-year OS: no necrosis 39.3% vs. <50% necrosis 34.7% and ≥50% necrosis 24.0%; p = 0.03) and RFS (5-year RFS: no necrosis 25.7% vs. <50% necrosis 13.9% and ≥50% necrosis 18.8%; p < 0.001). After stratifying by T stage, tumor necrosis was able to further stratify prognosis among patients with T1a ICC (5-year RFS: T1a and no necrosis 46.7% vs. T1a and necrosis 36.1%; p = 0.02), and T1b ICC (5-year RFS: T1b and no necrosis 31.1% vs. T1b and necrosis 11.2%; p = 0.006), but was not associated with outcomes among patients with more advanced T2-T3 disease. Patients with T1a ICC and tumor necrosis had similar 5-year RFS as individuals with T1b ICC and no tumor necrosis (36.1% vs. 31.1%; p = 0.66).

CONCLUSION

Tumor necrosis was associated with worse prognosis among patients with T1 ICC. Tumor necrosis for T1 ICC should be considered as an important factor to further stratify outcomes of patients with early T-stage ICC.

Aggressive local treatment for recurrent intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma—Stereotactic radiofrequency ablation as a valuable addition to hepatic resection

Background

To evaluate the efficacy, safety and overall clinical outcome of local treatment for recurrent intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinoma after hepatic resection.

Methods

Between 2007 and 2019 72 consecutive patients underwent hepatic resection for primary intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinoma. If amenable, recurrent tumors were aggressively treated by HR or stereotactic radiofrequency ablation with local curative intent. Endpoints consisted of morbidity and mortality, locoregional and de novo recurrence, disease free survival, and overall survival.

Results

After a median follow-up of 28 months, recurrence of intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinoma was observed in 43 of 72 patients undergoing hepatic resection (60.3%). 16 patients were subsequently treated by hepatic resection (n = 5) and stereotactic radiofrequency ablation (n = 11) with local curative intention. The remaining 27 patients underwent palliative treatment for first recurrence. Overall survival of patients who underwent repeated aggressive liver-directed therapy was comparable to patients without recurrence (p = 0.938) and was better as compared to patients receiving palliative treatment (p = 0.018). The 5-year overall survival rates for patients without recurrence, the repeated liver-directed treatment group and the palliative treatment group were 54.3%, 47.7% and 12.3%, respectively. By adding stereotactic radiofrequency ablation as an alternative treatment option, the rate of curative re-treatment increased from 11.9% to 37.2%.

Conclusion

Repeated hepatic resection is often precluded due to patient morbidity or anatomical and functional limitations. Due to the application of stereotactic radiofrequency ablation in case of recurrent intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinoma, the number of patients treated with curative intent can be increased. This leads to favorable clinical outcome as compared to palliative treatment of intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinoma recurrence.

Recurrent Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma - Review

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is the second-most common primary liver malignancy after hepatocellular carcinoma. While surgical resection with negative margin is the only curative treatment, ICC has very high rate of recurrence, up to 60-70% after curative resection. We reviewed the current data available on risk factors for ICC recurrence, recurrence pattern (location and timing), treatment options, and future directions. The risk factors for recurrence include elevated preoperative CA19-9, presence of liver cirrhosis, nodal metastasis, positive margins, and vascular invasion. Understanding different recurrence patterns, timing course, and risk factors for early recurrence is important to tailor postoperative surveillance and select treatment strategies including systemic or locoregional therapy. Re-resection can be considered for a selected patient population at experienced centers, and can yield long-term survival. ICC remains a dismal disease given the high likelihood of recurrence. Advances in our understanding of the genomic landscape of ICC are beginning to identify targetable alterations in ICC in subsets of patients that allow for personalized treatment.

A combined Cox and logistic model provides accurate predictive performance in estimation of time-dependent probabilities for recurrence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after resection

Background

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma has heterogeneous outcomes after resection. There remains a need for broadly applicable recurrence-specific tool offering precise evaluation on curativeness of resection.

Methods

A four hospital-based clinical cohort involving 1,655 patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma who received surgical resection were studied. Cox and logistic models were networked into one system containing risk categories with distinctive probabilities of recurrence. Prediction of time-to-recurrence was performed by formulizing time-dependent risk probabilities. The model was validated in three clinical cohorts (n=332).

Results

From the training cohort, 10 and 11 covariates, including diabetes, cholelithiasis, albumin, platelet count, alpha fetoprotein, carbohydrate antigen 19-9, carcinoembryonic antigen, hepatitis B virus infection, tumor size and number, resection type, and lymph node metastasis, from Cox and logistic models were identified significant for recurrence-free survival (RFS). The combined Cox & logistic ranking system (CCLRS)-adjusted time-dependent probabilities were categorized into seven ranks (5-yr RFS for lowest and highest ranks were 75% vs. 0%; hazard ratio 18.5, 95% CI: 14.7-24.9, P<0.0001). The CCLRS was validated with a minimum area under curve value of 0.8086. Prediction of time-to-recurrence was validated to be excellent (Pearson r, 0.8204; P<0.0001).

Conclusions

The CCLRS allows precise estimation on risk of recurrence for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after resection. It could be applicative when estimating time-dependent disease status and stratifying individuals who sole resection of the tumor would not be curative.

A simple scoring system to estimate perioperative mortality following liver resection for primary liver malignancy-the Hepatectomy Risk Score (HeRS)

Background

Selection of the optimal treatment modality for primary liver cancers remains complex, balancing patient condition, liver function, and extent of disease. In individuals with preserved liver function, liver resection remains the primary approach for treatment with curative intent but may be associated with significant mortality. The purpose of this study was to establish a simple scoring system based on Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and extent of resection to guide risk assessment for liver resections.

Methods

The 2005-2015 NSQIP database was queried for patients undergoing liver resection for primary liver malignancy. We first developed a model that incorporated the extent of resection (1 point for major hepatectomy) and a MELD-Na score category of low (MELD-Na =6, 1 point), medium (MELD-Na =7-10, 2 points) or high (MELD-Na >10, 3 points) with a score range of 1-4, called the Hepatic Resection Risk Score (HeRS). We tested the predictive value of this model on the dataset using logistic regression. We next developed an optimal multivariable model using backwards sequential selection of variables under logistic regression. We performed K-fold cross validation on both models. Receiver operating characteristics were plotted and the optimal sensitivity and specificity for each model were calculated to obtain positive and negative predictive values.

Results

A total of 4,510 patients were included. HeRS was associated with increased odds of 30-day mortality [HeRS =2: OR =3.23 (1.16-8.99), P=0.025; HeRS =3: OR =6.54 (2.39-17.90), P<0.001; HeRS =4: OR =13.69 (4.90-38.22), P<0.001]. The AUC for this model was 0.66. The AUC for the optimal multivariable model was higher at 0.76. Under K-fold cross validation, the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of these two models were similar at PPV =6.4% and NPV =97.7% for the HeRS only model and PPV =8.4% and NPV =98.1% for the optimal multivariable model.

Conclusions

The HeRS offers a simple heuristic for estimating 30-day mortality after resection of primary liver malignancy. More complicated models offer better performance but at the expense of being more difficult to integrate into clinical practice.

Personalized Preoperative Nomograms Predicting Postoperative Risks after Resection of Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Curative treatment of perihilar tumors requires major hepatectomy responsible for high morbidity and mortality. Current nomograms are based on definitive pathological analysis, not usable for patient selection. Our aim was to propose preoperative predictors for severe morbidity (Dindo-Clavien ≥3) and mortality at sixth month after resection of perihilar tumors.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We reviewed perioperative data of 186 patients operated with major hepatectomy for perihilar tumors between 2012 and 2018 in two high-volume centers. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to determine the preoperative predictors of morbidity and mortality. A stepwise regression in forward direction was developed to select variables for definitive models. Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Akaike information criteria and area under the ROC curves were calculated to validate both nomograms.

RESULTS

Resections were indicated for perihilar and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in 125 and 61 cases, respectively. Severe complications occurred in 76 patients (40.8%). Nineteen patients (10.2%) deceased before the sixth postoperative month. The predictors of severe morbidity were: male gender, portal vein embolization, planned biliary resection, low psoas muscle area/height² and low hemoglobinemia. The predictors of early mortality were: age, high bilirubinemia, hypoalbuminemia, biliary drainage and long drainage-to-surgery interval. For both models, the p values of Hosmer-Lemeshow tests were of 0.9 and 0.99, respectively, the Akaike information criteria were of 35.5 and 37.7, respectively, and area under the curves was of 0.73 and 0.86, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We developed two accurate and practical nomograms based on exclusively preoperative data to predict early outcomes following the resection of perihilar tumors. If validated in larger series, these tools could be integrated in the decision-making process for patient selection.

Comprehensive analysis of genomic mutation signature and tumor mutation burden for prognosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

Background

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is a highly lethal malignancy of the biliary tract. Analysis of somatic mutational profiling can reveal new prognostic markers and actionable treatment targets. In this study, we explored the utility of genomic mutation signature and tumor mutation burden (TMB) in predicting prognosis in iCCA patients.

Methods

Whole-exome sequencing and corresponding clinical data were collected from the ICGC portal and cBioPortal database to detect the prognostic mutated genes and determine TMB values. To identify the hub prognostic mutant signature, we used Cox regression and Lasso feature selection. Mutation-related signature (MRS) was constructed using multivariate Cox regression. The predictive performances of MRS and TMB were assessed using Kaplan–Meier (KM) analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC). We performed a functional enrichment pathway analysis using gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) for mutated genes. Based on the MRS, TMB, and the TNM stage, a nomogram was constructed to visualize prognosis in iCCA patients.

Results

The mutation landscape illustrated distributions of mutation frequencies and types in iCCA, and generated a list of most frequently mutated genes (such as Tp53, KRAS, ARID1A, and IDH1). Thirty-two mutated genes associated with overall survival (OS) were identified in iCCA patients. We obtained a six-gene signature using the Lasso and Cox method. AUCs for the MRS in the prediction of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.759, 0.732, and 0.728, respectively. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed a significant difference in prognosis for patients with iCCA having a high and low MRS score (P < 0.001). GSEA was used to show that several signaling pathways, including MAPK, PI3K-AKT, and proteoglycan, were involved in cancer. Conversely, survival analysis indicated that TMB was significantly associated with prognosis. GSEA indicated that samples with high MRS or TMB also showed an upregulated expression of pathways involved in tumor signaling and the immune response. Finally, the predictive nomogram (that included MRS, TMB, and the TNM stage) demonstrated satisfactory performance in predicting survival in patients with iCCA.

Conclusions

Mutation-related signature and TMB were associated with prognosis in patients with iCCA. Our study provides a valuable prognostic predictor for determining outcomes in patients with iCCA.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-07788-7.

The systemic immune-inflammation index predicts prognosis in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: an international multi-institutional analysis

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to examine whether the systemic immune inflammation index (SII) was associated with prognosis among patients following resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).

METHODS

The impact of SII on overall (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) following resection of ICC was assessed. The performance of the final multivariable models that incorporated inflammatory markers (i.e. neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR], platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio [PLR] and SII [platelets∗NLR]) was assessed using the Harrell's concordance index.

RESULTS

Patients with high SII had worse 5-year OS (37.7% vs 46.6%, p < 0.001) and CSS (46.1% vs 50.1%, p < 0.001) compared with patients with low SII. An elevated SII (HR = 1.70, 95% CI 1.23-2.34) and NLR (HR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.10-2.27) independently predicted worse OS, whereas high PLR (HR = 1.17, 95% CI 0.85-1.60) was no longer associated with prognosis. Only SII remained an independent predictor of CSS (HR = 1.55, 95% CI 1.09-2.21). The SII multivariable model outperformed models that incorporated PLR and NLR relative to OS (c-index; 0.696 vs 0.689 vs 0.692) and CSS (c-index; 0.697 vs 0.689 vs 0.690).

CONCLUSION

SII independently predicted OS and CSS among patients with resectable ICC. SII may be a better predictor of outcomes compared with other markers of inflammatory response among patients with resectable ICC.

Strategies for the delay of surgery in the management of resectable hepatobiliary malignancies during the COVID-19 pandemic

Objective

We aimed to review data about delaying strategies for the management of hepatobiliary cancers requiring surgery during the covid-19 pandemic.

Background

Given the covid-19 pandemic, many jurisdictions, to spare resources, have limited access to operating rooms for elective surgical activity, including cancer, thus forcing deferral or cancellation of cancer surgeries. Surgery for hepatobiliary cancer is high-risk and particularly resource-intensive. Surgeons must critically appraise which patients will benefit most from surgery and which ones have other therapeutic options to delay surgery. Little guidance is currently available about potential delaying strategies for hepatobiliary cancers when surgery is not possible.

Methods

An international multidisciplinary panel reviewed the available literature to summarize data relating to standard-of-care surgical management and possible mitigating strategies to be used as a bridge to surgery for colorectal liver metastases, hepatocellular carcinoma, gallbladder cancer, intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, and hilar cholangiocarcinoma.

Results

Outcomes of surgery during the covid-19 pandemic are reviewed. Resource requirements are summarized, including logistics and adverse effects profiles for hepatectomy and delaying strategies using systemic, percutaneous and radiation ablative, and liver embolic therapies. For each cancer type, the long-term oncologic outcomes of hepatectomy and the clinical tools that can be used to prognosticate for individual patients are detailed.

Conclusions

There are a variety of delaying strategies to consider if availability of operating rooms decreases. This review summarizes available data to provide guidance about possible delaying strategies depending on patient, resource, institution, and systems factors. Multidisciplinary team discussions should be leveraged to consider patient- and tumour-specific information for each individual case.

Patterns of gene mutations in bile duct cancers: is it time to overcome the anatomical classification?

BACKGROUND

Two recent studies based on multi-omics data analysis identified distinct subtypes of bile-duct cancers (BDC) with important implications in terms of disease classification and patients' treatment.

METHODS

Patients with mutations in KRAS, NRAS, TP53, and ARID1A genes were classified in KRAS/TP53 group while patients with mutations in IDH1-2, BAP1, and PBRM1 were classified in IDH1-2/BAP1/PBRM1 group. The aim of this study was to define long-term outcomes among patients stratified by patterns of genes mutated.

RESULTS

Among 105 patients who underwent surgical resection for BDCs, 71 (68%) patients were classified in two groups based on patterns of genes mutated. While in IDH1-2/BAP1/PBRM1 group there were 58%, 22%, and 10% of patients with intrahepatic-cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), perihilar-cholangiocarcinoma (PHCC), and gallbladder cancer (GBC), in KRAS/TP53 group there were 42%, 78%, and 90% of patients with ICC, PHCC, and GBC (p = 0.003), respectively. Patients in IDH1-2/BAP1/PBRM1 group had a 5-year OS of 40% compared with 13% for KRAS/TP53 group (p = 0.032). In a multivariable model adjusted for margins, lymph-node status, microvascular invasion, and tumor grade, patients in KRAS/TP53 group had a 2.1-fold increased risk of death compared with patients in IDH1-2/BAP1/PBRM1 group (p = 0.028).

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic data were able to overcome the clinical based staging system in predicting patients' prognosis.

Modifications of the AJCC 8th edition staging system for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma and proposal for a new staging system by incorporating serum tumor markers

BACKGROUND

Several studies have noted that the discriminatory ability and stratification performance of the AJCC 8th edition staging system is not entirely satisfactory. We aimed to improve the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition staging system for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).

METHODS

A multicentric database from three Chinese mainland centers (n = 1601 patients) was used to modify the 8th edition staging system. This modified TNM (mTNM) staging system was then validated using the SEER database (n = 761 patients). A new TNM staging system, by incorporating serum tumor markers (TNMIS) into the mTNM staging system was then proposed.

RESULTS

The 8th edition staging system did not provide an adequate stratification of prognosis in the Chinese multicentric cohort. The mTNM staging system offered a better discriminatory capacity in the multicentric cohort than the original 8th edition. External validation in the SEER cohort showed that the mTNM staging system also had a good stratification performance. After further incorporating a serum marker stage into the mTNM staging, the TNMIS staging system was able to stratify prognosis even better.

CONCLUSION

The proposed mTNM staging system resulted in better stratification performance and the TNMIS staging system provided even more accurate prognostic classification than the conventional TNM system.

A Machine-Based Approach to Preoperatively Identify Patients with the Most and Least Benefit Associated with Resection for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: An International Multi-institutional Analysis of 1146 Patients

BACKGROUND

Accurate risk stratification and patient selection is necessary to identify patients who will benefit the most from surgery or be better treated with other non-surgical treatment strategies. We sought to identify which patients in the preoperative setting would likely derive the most or least benefit from resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for ICC between 1990 and 2017 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. A machine-based classification and regression tree (CART) was used to generate homogeneous groups of patients relative to overall survival (OS) based on preoperative factors.

RESULTS

Among 1146 patients, CART analysis revealed tumor number and size, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and preoperative lymph node (LN) status as the strongest prognostic factors associated with OS among patients undergoing resection for ICC. In turn, four groups of patients with distinct outcomes were generated through machine learning: Group 1 (n = 228): single ICC, size ≤ 5 cm, ALBI grade I, negative preoperative LN status; Group 2 (n = 708): (1) single tumor > 5 cm, (2) single tumor ≤ 5 cm, ALBI grade 2/3, and (3) single tumor ≤ 5 cm, ALBI grade 1, metastatic/suspicious LNs; Group 3 (n = 150): 2-3 tumors; Group 4 (n = 60): ≥ 4 tumors. 5-year OS among Group 1, 2, 3, and 4 patients was 60.5%, 35.8%, 27.5%, and 3.8%, respectively (p < 0.001). Similarly, 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) among Group 1, 2, 3, and 4 patients was 47%, 27.2%, 6.8%, and 0%, respectively (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The machine-based CART model identified distinct prognostic groups of patients with distinct outcomes based on preoperative factors. Survival decision trees may be useful as guides in preoperative patient selection and risk stratification.

Coming of a precision era of the staging systems for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma?

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is the second most common primary liver cancer. Appropriate treatment of this aggressive and heterogeneous cancer requires accurate staging and prognostic stratification, as does patient selection for clinical trials. Over the past two decades, several staging systems and prognostic models for ICC have been developed. Most include independent prognostic factors such as tumor extent, clinical parameters and histopathological features and are inaccurate. Accumulating findings offer new insights into the genetic and molecular basis of ICC progression. Hence, staging systems and prognostic models that incorporate in clinicalpathological factors, molecular and genomic information, and tumor biomarkers, and hence more accurately estimate prognosis, will become a reality. This review summarizes the current staging systems and prognostic models for ICC and highlights the need to establish more precise and personalized systems and models that incorporate tumor biologic factors.

Recurrence Patterns and Timing Courses Following Curative-Intent Resection for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Recurrence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) after curative resection is common.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the patterns, timing and risk factors of disease recurrence after curative-intent resection for ICC.

METHODS

Patients undergoing curative resection for ICC were identified from a multi-institutional database. Data on clinicopathological and initial operation information, timing and first sites of recurrence, recurrence management, and long-term outcomes were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 920 patients were included. With a median follow-up of 38 months, 607 patients (66.0%) experienced ICC recurrence. In the cohort, 145 patients (23.9%) recurred at the surgical margin, 178 (29.3%) recurred within the liver away from the surgical margin, 90 (14.8%) recurred at extraheptatic sites, and 194 (32.0%) developed both intrahepatic and extrahepatic recurrence. Intrahepatic margin recurrence (median 6.0 m) and extrahepatic-only recurrence (median 8.0 m) tended to occur early, while intrahepatic recurrence at non-margin sites occurred later (median 14.0 m; p < 0.05). On multivariate analysis, surgical margin < 10 mm was associated with increased margin recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 1.70, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-2.60; p = 0.014), whereas female sex (HR 2.12, 95% CI 1.40-3.22; p < 0.001) and liver cirrhosis (HR 2.36, 95% CI 1.31-4.25; p = 0.004) were both associated with an increased risk of intrahepatic recurrence at other sites. Median survival after recurrence was better among patients who underwent repeat curative-intent surgery (48.7 months) versus other treatments (9.7 months) [p < 0.001].

CONCLUSIONS

Different recurrence patterns and timing of recurrence suggest biological heterogeneity of ICC tumor recurrence. Understanding timing and risk factors associated with different types of recurrence can hopefully inform discussions around adjuvant therapy, surveillance, and treatment of recurrent disease.

A novel online prognostic tool to predict long-term survival after liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: The "metro-ticket" paradigm

BACKGROUND

The aim of the current study was to develop an online calculator to predict survival after liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) based on the "metro-ticket" paradigm.

METHODS

Between 1990 and 2016, patients who underwent liver resection for ICC were identified in an international multi-institutional database. The final multivariable model of survival was used to develop an online prognostic calculator of survival.

RESULTS

Among 643 patients, actual 5-year overall survival (OS) after resection for ICC was 42.7%. On multivariable analysis, CA19-9 > 200 (hazard ratio (HR), 2.62; 95% CI, 2.01-3.42), sum of the number and largest tumor size >7 (HR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.46-2.42), N1 disease (HR, 2.87; 95% CI, 1.98-4.16), R1 resection (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.21-2.46), poor/undifferentiated tumor grade (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.25-2.44), major vascular invasion (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.03-2.10), and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.45-0.89) were significantly associated with survival and were included in the online calculator. The predictive accuracy of the model was good to very good as the C-statistics to predict 5-year OS was 0.696 in the training dataset and 0.672 with bootstrapping resamples (n = 5000) in the test dataset.

CONCLUSION

A novel, online calculator was developed to estimate the 5-year survival probability for patients undergoing resection for ICC. This tool could help provide useful information to guide treatment decision-making and inform conversations about prognosis.

Impact of body mass index on tumor recurrence among patients undergoing curative-intent resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma- a multi-institutional international analysis

BACKGROUND

The association between body mass index (BMI) and long-term outcomes of patients with ICC has not been well defined. We sought to define the presentation and oncologic outcomes of patients with ICC undergoing curative-intent resection, according to their BMI category.

METHODS

Patients who underwent resection of ICC were identified in a multi-institutional database. Patients were categorized as normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m²), overweight (BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m²) and obese (BMI≥30 kg/m²) according to the World Health Organization (WHO) definition. Impact of clinico-pathological factors on recurrence-free survival (RFS) was assessed using Cox proportional hazards model among patients in the three BMI categories.

RESULTS

Among a total of 790 patients undergoing curative-intent resection of ICC in the analytic cohort, 399 (50.5%) had normal weight, 274 (34.7%) were overweight and 117 (14.8%) were obese. Caucasian patients were more likely to be obese (66.7%, n = 78) and overweight (47.1%, n = 129) compared with Asian (obese: 18.8%, n = 22; overweight: 46%, n = 126) and other races (obese: 14.5%, n = 17; overweight: 6.9%, n = 19)(p < 0.001). There were no differences in the presence of cirrhosis (10.9%, vs. 12.8%, vs. 12.9%), preoperative jaundice (8.6% vs. 9.5% vs. 12.0%), or levels of CA 19-9 (75, IQR 24.6-280 vs. 50.9, IQR 17.9-232 vs. 43, IQR 16.9-192.7) among the BMI groups (all p > 0.05). On multivariable analysis, increased BMI was an independent risk factor for tumor recurrence (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.02-1.32, for every 5 unit increase).

CONCLUSION

Increasing BMI was associated with incremental increases in the risk of recurrence following curative-intent resection of ICC. Future studies should aim to achieve a better understanding of BMI-related factors relative to prognosis of patients with ICC.

Serum tumor markers enhance the predictive power of the AJCC and LCSGJ staging systems in resectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

While several prognostic models have been developed to predict long-term outcomes in resectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), their prognostic discrimination remains limited. The addition of tumor markers might improve the prognostic power of the classification schemas proposed by the AJCC 8th edition and the Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan (LCSGJ).

METHODS

The prognostic discrimination of the AJCC and the LCSGJ were compared before and after the addition of CA 19-9 and CEA, using Harrell's C-index, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) in an international, multi-institutional cohort.

RESULTS

Eight hundred and five surgically treated patients with ICC that met the inclusion criteria were identified. On multivariable analysis, CEA5 ng/mL, 100IU/mL CA 19-9< 500IU/mL and CA 19-9500 IU/mL were associated with worse overall survival. The C-index of the AJCC and the LCSGJ improved from 0.540 to 0.626 and 0.553 to 0.626, respectively following incorporation of CA 19-9 and CEA. The NRI and IDI metrics confirmed the superiority of the modified AJCC and LCSGJ, compared to the original versions.

CONCLUSION

The inclusion of preoperative CA 19-9 and CEA in the AJCC and LCSGJ staging schemas may improve prognostic discrimination among surgically treated patients with ICC.

The impact of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio among patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio may be host factors associated with prognosis. We sought to determine whether neutrophil-to-lymphocyte and platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio were associated with overall survival among patients undergoing surgery for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

METHODS

Patients who underwent resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma between 1990 and 2015 were identified from 12 major centers. Clinicopathologic factors and overall survival were compared among patients stratified by neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio. Risk factors identified on multivariable analysis were included in a prognostic model and the discrimination was assessed using Harrell's concordance index (C index).

RESULTS

A total of 991 patients were identified. Median neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio were 2.7 (interquartile range [IQR]: 2.0-4.0) and 109.6 (IQR: 72.4-158.8), respectively. Preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was elevated (≥5) in 100 patients (10.0%) and preoperative platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio (≥190) in 94 patients (15.2%). Patients with low and high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio generally had similar baseline characteristics with regard to tumor characteristics. Overall survival was 37.7 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 32.7-42.6); 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival was 78.8%, 51.6%, and 39.3%, respectively. Patients with an neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio <5 had a median survival of 47.1 months (95% CI: 37.9-53.3) compared with a median survival of 21.9 months (95% CI: 4.8-39.1) among patients with an neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥5 (P = .001). In contrast, patients who had a platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio <190 vs platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥190 had comparable long-term survival (P > .05). On multivariable analysis, an elevated neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was independently associated with decreased overall survival (hazard ratio: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01-1.07; P = .002). Patients could be stratified into low- versus high-risk groups based on standard tumor-specific factors such as lymph node status, tumor size, number, and vascular invasion (C index 0.62). When neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was added to the prognostic model, the discriminatory ability of the model improved (C index 0.71).

CONCLUSION

Elevated neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was independently associated with worse overall survival and improved the prognostic estimation of long-term survival among patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma undergoing resection.

The Limitations of Standard Clinicopathologic Features to Accurately Risk-Stratify Prognosis after Resection of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The ability to provide accurate prognostic data after hepatectomy for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) remains poor. We sought to develop and validate a nomogram to predict survival, as well as investigate the clinical implications of underestimating patients' risk of recurrence.

METHODS

Patients undergoing curative-intent resection of ICC between 1990 and 2015 at 14 major hepatobiliary centers were included. Variables significant on multivariable analysis were used to construct a nomogram to predict disease-free survival (DFS). The nomogram assigned a score to each variable included in the model and calculated the risk of recurrence.

RESULTS

Eight hundred ninety-seven patients are included in the analytic cohort. On multivariable Cox regression analysis, tumor size > 5 cm (HR 1.98, 95% CI 1.44-2.13; p < 0.001), multifocal ICC (HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.32-2.03; p < 0.001), lymph node metastasis (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.25-2.11; p < 0.001), poorly differentiated tumor grade (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.21-1.89; p < 0.001), and periductal infiltrating type (PI) morphology (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.09-1.83; p = 0.008) were independent adverse risk factors associated with decreased DFS. The Harrell's c-index for the nomogram was 0.633 (with n = 5000 bootstrapping resamples) and the plot comparing predicted and actuarial DFS demonstrated a good calibration of the model. A subset of patients (n = 282) had a DFS worse than predicted (ΔPredicted DFS - Actuarial DFS > 6 months). Moreover, underestimation of a recurrence risk was more common among patients with clinicopathologic features traditionally considered "favorable."

CONCLUSION

A nomogram based on standard clinicopathologic characteristics was suboptimal in its ability to predict accurately risk of recurrence among patients with ICC after curative-intent liver resection. Particularly, the risk of underestimating patient risk of recurrence was highest among patients with historically favorable characteristics. Over one third of patients recurred > 6 months earlier than the DFS predicted by the nomogram.