A novel online prognostic tool to predict long-term survival after liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: The "metro-ticket" paradigm

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: Evolving strategies in management and treatment

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma is the second most frequent primary liver cancer after hepatocellular carcinoma. According to International Classification of Diseases-11 (ICD-11), intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma is identified by a specific diagnostic code, different with respect to perihilar-CCA or distal-CCA. Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma originates from intrahepatic small or large bile ducts including the second-order bile ducts and has a silent presentation that combined with the highly aggressive nature and refractoriness to chemotherapy contributes to the alarming increasing incidence and mortality. Indeed, at the moment of the diagnosis, less than 40% of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma are suitable of curative surgical therapy, that is so far the only effective treatment. The main goals of clinicians and researchers are to make an early diagnosis, and to carry out molecular characterization to provide the patient with personalized treatment. Unfortunately, these goals are not easily achievable because of the heterogeneity of this tumor from anatomical, molecular, biological, and clinical perspectives. However, recent progress has been made in molecular characterization, surgical treatment, and management of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma and, this article deals with these advances.

The complication-overall survival (CompOS) risk tool predicts risk of a severe postoperative complications relative to long-term survival among patients with primary liver cancer

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to develop a tool based on preoperative factors to predict the risk of perioperative complications based on the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI) and long-term survival outcomes after liver resection for primary liver cancer.

METHODS

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) undergoing curative-intent hepatectomy between 1990 and 2020 were identified using a multi-institutional international database.

RESULTS

Among 1411 patients who underwent curative-intent hepatic resection (HCC: 997, 70.7%; ICC: 414, 29.3%), median patient age was 66.0 years (IQR, 57.0-73.0), and most patients were male (n = 1001, 70.9%). In the postoperative setting, 699 patients (49.5%) experienced a complication; moreover, 112 patients (7.9%) had major complications. Although most patients had a favorable risk complication-overall survival (CompOS) profile (CCI score > 40 risk of <30% and median survival of >5 years: n = 778, 55.1%), 553 patients (39.2%) had an intermediate-risk profile, and 80 patients (5.7%) had a very unfavorable risk profile (CCI score > 40 risk of ≥30% and/or median survival of ≤1.5 years). The areas under the curve of the test and validation cohorts were 0.73 and 0.76, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The CompOS risk model accurately stratified patients relative to short- and long-term risks, identifying a subset of patients at a high risk of major complications and poor overall survival.

Using immunovascular characteristics to predict very early recurrence and prognosis of resectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To predict the very early recurrence (VER) of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) based on TLSs and MVI status, and further perform prognosis stratifications.

METHODS

A total of 160, 51 ICC patients from two institutions between May 2012 and July 2022 were retrospectively included as training, external validation cohort. Clinical, radiological and pathological variables were evaluated and collected. Univariate and multivariate analysis were applied to select the significant factors related to VER of ICC. The factors selected were combined to perform stratification of overall survival (OS) using the Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Overall, 39 patients (24.4%) had VER, whereas 121 (75.6%) did not (non-VER group). In the training cohort, the median OS was 40.5 months (95% CIs: 33.2-47.7 months). The VER group showed significantly worse OS than the non-VER group (median OS: 14.8, 95% CI:11.6-18.0 months vs. 53.4, 34.3-72.6 months; p<0.001), and it was confirmed in the validation cohort (median OS: 22.1, 95% CI: 8.8-35.4 months vs. 40.1, 21.2-59.0 months; p = 0.003). According to the univariate analysis, four variables were significantly different between the VER group and non-VER group (TLSs status, p = 0.028; differentiation, p = 0.023; MVI status, p = 0.012; diameter, p = 0.028). According to the multivariate analysis, MVI-positive status was independently associated with a higher probability of VER (odds ratio [OR], 2.5; 95% CIs,1.16-5.18; p = 0.018), whereas intra-tumoral TLSs-positive status was associated with lower odds of VER (OR, 0.43; 95% CIs, 0.19-0.97; p = 0.041). Based on the TLSs and MVI status, patients of ICC were categorized into four groups: TLSs-positive and MVI-negative (TP/MN); TLSs-negative and MVI-negative (TN/MN); TLSs-positive and MVI-positive (TP/MP), TLSs-negative and MVI-positive groups (TN/MP). In the training cohort, the four groups could be correlated with OS significantly (p<0.001), and it was confirmed in the validation cohort (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Intra-tumoral TLSs and MVI status are independent predictive factors of VER after surgery, based on which immunovascular stratifications are constructed and associated with OS significantly of resectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

EASL-ILCA Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) develops inside the liver, between bile ductules and the second-order bile ducts. It is the second most frequent primary liver cancer after hepatocellular carcinoma, and its global incidence is increasing. It is associated with an alarming mortality rate owing to its silent presentation (often leading to late diagnosis), highly aggressive nature and resistance to treatment. Early diagnosis, molecular characterisation, accurate staging and personalised multidisciplinary treatments represent current challenges for researchers and physicians. Unfortunately, these challenges are beset by the high heterogeneity of iCCA at the clinical, genomic, epigenetic and molecular levels, very often precluding successful management. Nonetheless, in the last few years, progress has been made in molecular characterisation, surgical management, and targeted therapy. Recent advances together with the awareness that iCCA represents a distinct entity amongst the CCA family, led the ILCA and EASL governing boards to commission international experts to draft dedicated evidence-based guidelines for physicians involved in the diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic management of iCCA.

Predicting Disease-Specific Survival for Patients With Primary Cholangiocarcinoma Undergoing Curative Resection by Using a Decision Tree Model

Background

The aim of this study was to derive and validate a decision tree model to predict disease-specific survival after curative resection for primary cholangiocarcinoma (CCA).

Method

Twenty-one clinical characteristics were collected from 482 patients after curative resection for primary CCA. A total of 289 patients were randomly allocated into a training cohort and 193 were randomly allocated into a validation cohort. We built three decision tree models based on 5, 12, and 21 variables, respectively. Area under curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were used for comparison of the 0.5-, 1-, and 3-year decision tree models and regression models. AUC and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to determine the predictive performances of the 0.5-, 1-, and 3-year decision tree models and AJCC TNM stage models.

Results

According to the fitting degree and the computational cost, the decision tree model derived from 12 variables displayed superior predictive efficacy to the other two models, with an accuracy of 0.938 in the training cohort and 0.751 in the validation cohort. Maximum tumor size, resection margin, lymph node status, histological differentiation, TB level, ALBI, AKP, AAPR, ALT, γ-GT, CA19-9, and Child-Pugh grade were involved in the model. The performances of 0.5-, 1-, and 3-year decision tree models were better than those of conventional models and AJCC TNM stage models.

Conclusion

We developed a decision tree model to predict outcomes for CCA undergoing curative resection. The present decision tree model outperformed other clinical models, facilitating individual decision-making of adjuvant therapy after curative resection.

Recurrent Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma - Review

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is the second-most common primary liver malignancy after hepatocellular carcinoma. While surgical resection with negative margin is the only curative treatment, ICC has very high rate of recurrence, up to 60-70% after curative resection. We reviewed the current data available on risk factors for ICC recurrence, recurrence pattern (location and timing), treatment options, and future directions. The risk factors for recurrence include elevated preoperative CA19-9, presence of liver cirrhosis, nodal metastasis, positive margins, and vascular invasion. Understanding different recurrence patterns, timing course, and risk factors for early recurrence is important to tailor postoperative surveillance and select treatment strategies including systemic or locoregional therapy. Re-resection can be considered for a selected patient population at experienced centers, and can yield long-term survival. ICC remains a dismal disease given the high likelihood of recurrence. Advances in our understanding of the genomic landscape of ICC are beginning to identify targetable alterations in ICC in subsets of patients that allow for personalized treatment.

The role of lymph node dissection in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Lymph node dissection (LND) is of great significance in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). Although the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines recommend routine LND in ICC, the effects of LND remains controversial. This study aimed to explore the role of LND and some related issues and of in ICC.

METHODS

Patients were identified in two Chinese academic centers. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to reduce bias. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS).

RESULTS

Of 232 patients, 177 (76.3%) underwent LND, and 71 (40.1%) had metastatic lymph nodes. A minimum of 6 lymph nodes were dissected in 66 patients (37.3%). LND did not improve the prognosis of ICC. LNM > 3 may have worse OS and DFS than LNM 1-3, especially in the LND >  = 6 group. For patients who did not underwent LND, the adjuvant treatment group had better OS and DFS.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportions of patients who underwent LND and removed >  = 6 lymph nodes were not high enough. LND has no definite predictive effect on prognosis. Patients with 4 or more LNMs may have a worse prognosis than patients with 1-3 LNMs. Adjuvant therapy may benefit patients of nLND.

The role of lymph node dissection and a new N-staging system for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a study from the SEER database

BACKGROUND

Although the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines recommend routine lymph node dissection (LND) in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), the role of LND remains controversial, and the node (N) stage is oversimplified.

METHODS

Patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results research data 18 (SEER 18). Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to reduce bias, and Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare overall survival (OS). The best cutoff values were found using X-tile software.

RESULTS

Of 2037 patients included in SEER 18, 1147 underwent LND (56.3%); 389 (34.3%) had pathologically confirmed lymph node metastasis (LNM), and 316 (27.6%) had at least 6 LNDs. The median OS was worse for LND patients (34 months vs. 40 months, respectively), and this result remained after PSM. Male sex, age ≥60 years, tumor size > 5 cm, and LNM were independent prognostic risk factors for ICC. LNM ≥3 was associated with worse OS.

CONCLUSIONS

Only a few LNDs met the requirements per the guidelines. LND does not improve OS in ICC, and the best approach to LND and a better N staging method should be explored further.

A Novel TNM Classification for Colorectal Cancers based on the Metro-ticket Paradigm

Background: Several revisions of the TNM classifications for colorectal cancer (CRC) have acknowledged that the oncological outcomes of stage IIB/IIC CRC are worse than those of stage IIIA. We aimed to develop a novel TNM (nTNM) classification based on the metro-ticket paradigm. Methods: We identified eligible CRC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The nTNM was developed using distance from the origin on a Cartesian plane incorporating the pN (x-axis) and pT (y-axis) stages, and was compared with the AJCC TNM classification. The areas under the curves (AUCs), calibration curves, and Akaike's information criterion (AIC) were used to evaluate the predictive performances of the two classifications. Clinical benefits were further estimated by decision curve analyses. The validation cohort was applied to validate these findings. Results: A total of 58,192 CRC patients (40,736 training cohort, 17,456 validation cohort) were finally included. In the training cohort, 18,476 patients (45.4%) experienced upstaging and 15,907 patients (39.0%) experienced downstaging in the nTNM classification compared with the TNM classification. Taking the prognosis of stage I as the reference, survival decreased with increasing nTNM stage. The nTNM classification showed better discrimination (AUC, 0.678 vs. 0.667, P<0.001), model-fitting (AIC, 236,525 vs. 237,741), and clinical benefits than the TNM classification. Similar results were found in the validation cohort. Conclusions: The nTNM classification for CRC has better predictive performances and superior accuracy for predicting prognosis compared with the TNM classification. The nTNM classification should therefore be considered in future revisions of the TNM classification.

Defining the Risk of Early Recurrence Following Curative-Intent Resection for Distal Cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Although multidisciplinary treatments including the use of adjuvant therapy (AT) have been adopted for biliary tract cancers, patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma (DCC) can still experience recurrence. We sought to characterize the incidence and predictors of early recurrence (ER) that occurred within 12 months following surgery for DCC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients who underwent resection for DCC between 2000 and 2015 were identified from the US multi-institutional database. Cox regression analysis was used to identify clinicopathological factors to develop an ER risk score, and the predictive model was validated in an external dataset.

RESULTS

Among 245 patients included in the analysis, 67 patients (27.3%) developed ER. No difference was noted in ER rates between patients who did and did not receive AT (28.7% vs. 25.0%, p = 0.55). Multivariable analysis revealed that neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), peak total bilirubin (T-Bil), major vascular resection (MVR), lymphovascular invasion, and R1 surgical margin status were associated with a higher ER risk. A DIstal Cholangiocarcinoma Early Recurrence Score was developed according to each factor available prior to surgery [NLR > 9.0 (2 points); peak T-bil > 1.5 mg/dL (1 points); MVR (2 points)]. Cumulative ER rates incrementally increased among patients who were low (0 points; 10.6%), intermediate (1-2 points; 26.8%), or high (3-5 points; 57.6%) risk (p < 0.001) in the training dataset, as well as in the validation dataset [low (0 points); 3.4%, intermediate (1-2 points); 32.7%, or high risk (3-5 points); 55.6% (p < 0.001)].

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients undergoing resection for DCC, 1 in 4 patients experienced an ER. Alternative treatment strategies such as neoadjuvant chemotherapy may be considered especially among individuals deemed to be at high risk for ER.

Very Early Recurrence After Liver Resection for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: Considering Alternative Treatment Approaches

Importance

Although surgery offers the best chance of a potential cure for patients with localized, resectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), prognosis of patients remains dismal largely because of a high incidence of recurrence.

Objective

To predict very early recurrence (VER) (ie, recurrence within 6 months after surgery) following resection for ICC in the pre- and postoperative setting.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for ICC between May 1990 and July 2016 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. The study was conducted at The Ohio State University in collaboration with all other participating institutions. The data were analyzed in December 2019.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Two logistic regression models were constructed to predict VER based on pre- and postoperative variables. The final models were used to develop an online calculator to predict VER and the tool was internally and externally validated.

Results

Among 880 patients (median age, 59 years [interquartile range, 51-68 years]; 388 women [44.1%]; 428 [50.2%] white; 377 [44.3%] Asian; 27 [3.2%] black]), 196 (22.3%) developed VER. The 5-year overall survival among patients with and without VER was 8.9% vs 49.8%, respectively (P < .001). A preoperative model was able to stratify patients relative to the risk for VER: low risk (6-month recurrence-free survival [RFS], 87.7%), intermediate risk (6-month RFS, 72.3%), and high risk (6-month RFS, 49.5%) (log-rank P < .001). The postoperative model similarly identified discrete cohorts of patients based on probability for VER: low risk (6-month RFS, 90.0%), intermediate risk (6-month RFS, 73.1%), and high risk (6-month RFS, 48.5%) (log-rank, P < .001). The calibration and predictive accuracy of the pre- and postoperative models were good in the training (C index: preoperative, 0.710; postoperative, 0.722) as well as the internal (C index: preoperative, 0.715; postoperative, 0.728; bootstrapping resamples, n = 5000) and external (C index: postoperative, 0.672) validation data sets.

Conclusion and Relevance

An easy-to-use online calculator was developed to help clinicians predict the chance of VER after curative-intent resection for ICC. The tool performed well on internal and external validation. This tool may help clinicians in the preoperative selection of patients for neoadjuvant therapy as well as during the postoperative period to inform surveillance strategies.

Effect of Tumor Size on Long-Term Survival After Resection for Solitary Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

Background

The relationship between tumor size and survival in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is still controversial. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic ability of tumor size for solitary ICC after resection and explore optimal cut-off values in different subgroups.

Methods

Patients with solitary ICC who underwent liver resection from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and Shandong Provincial Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic ability of tumor size. The log-rank test was used to determine the optimal cut-off values, and a minimum P was regarded as the optimal one in different subgroups.

Results

Large tumor size groups had worse overall survival (OS) than small tumor size groups. Cox regression analysis suggested that tumor size was an independent prognostic factor for OS for solitary ICC after resection. Subgroup analysis showed tumor size was associated with OS for both solitary ICC with and without vascular invasion (VI). Furthermore, the optimal cut-off values for solitary ICC with and without VI were found to be 8 and 3 cm, respectively, which could divide the patients into two groups with significant differences in OS.

Conclusion

Tumor size was an independent prognostic factor for solitary ICC after resection. The existing American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system could be improved if the cut-off value of the T1 stage was changed to 8 cm and if the T2 stage incorporated a tumor size with a cut-off value of 3 cm. Further studies with more cases are needed to validate these findings.

Preoperative leukocytosis and the resection severity index are independent risk factors for survival in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

PURPOSE

The incidence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma is increasing worldwide. Despite advances in surgical and non-surgical treatment, reported outcomes are still poor and surgical resection remains to be the only chance for long-term survival of affected patients. The identification and validation of prognostic factors and scores, such as the recently introduced resection severity index, for postoperative morbidity and mortality are essential to facilitate optimal therapeutic regimens.

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of 269 patients undergoing resection of histologically confirmed intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma between February 1996 and September 2018 at a tertiary referral center for hepatobiliary surgery. Regression analyses were performed to evaluate potential prognostic factors, including the resection severity index.

RESULTS

Median postoperative follow-up time was 22.93 (0.10-234.39) months. Severe postoperative complications (≥ Clavien-Dindo grade III) were observed in 94 (34.9%) patients. The body mass index (p = 0.035), the resection severity index (ASAT in U/l divided by Quick in % multiplied by the extent of liver resection graded in points; p = 0.006), additional hilar bile duct resection (p = 0.005), and number of packed red blood cells transfused during operation (p = 0.036) were independent risk factors for the onset of severe postoperative complications. Median Kaplan-Meier survival after resection was 27.63 months. Preoperative leukocytosis (p = 0.003), the resection severity index (p = 0.005), multivisceral resection (p = 0.001), and T stage ≥ 3 (p = 0.013) were identified as independent risk factors for survival.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative leukocytosis and the resection severity index are useful variables for preoperative risk stratification since they were identified as significant predictors for postoperative morbidity and mortality, respectively.

The effect of adjuvant therapy for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after surgical resection: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUD

Resection is still the only potentially curative treatment for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), but the prognosis remains far from satisfactory. However, the benefit of adjuvant therapy (AT) remains controversial, although it has been conducted prevalently. Hence, a meta-analysis was warranted to evaluate the effect of AT for patients with ICC after resection.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

PubMed, MedLine, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science were used to identify potentially eligible studies from Jan.1st 1990 to Aug. 31st 2019, investigating the effect of AT for patients with ICC after resection. Primary endpoint was overall survival (OS), and secondary endpoints was recurrence-free survival (RFS). Hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to determine the effect size.

RESULTS

22 studies with 10181 patients were enrolled in this meta-analysis, including 832 patients in the chemotherapy group, 309 patients in the transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) group, 1192 patients in the radiotherapy group, 235 patients in the chemoradiotherapy group, and 6424 patients in the non-AT group. The pooled HR for the OS rate and RFS rate in the AT group were 0.63 (95%CI 0.52~0.74), 0.74 (95%CI 0.58~0.90), compared with the non-AT group. Subgroup analysis showed that the pooled HR for the OS rate in the AT group compared with non-AT group were as follows: chemotherapy group was 0.57 (95%CI = 0.44~0.70), TACE group was 0.56 (95%CI = 0.31~0.82), radiotherapy group was 0.71 (95%CI = 0.39~1.03), chemoradiotherapy group was 0.73 (95%CI = 0.57~0.89), positive resection margin group was 0.60 (95%CI = 0.51~0.69), and lymph node metastasis (LNM) group was 0.67 (95%CI = 0.57~0.76).

CONCLUSION

With the current data, we concluded that AT such as chemotherapy, TACE and chemoradiotherapy could benefit patients with ICC after resection, especially those with positive resection margin and LNM, but the conclusion needed to be furtherly confirmed.

A Machine-Based Approach to Preoperatively Identify Patients with the Most and Least Benefit Associated with Resection for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: An International Multi-institutional Analysis of 1146 Patients

BACKGROUND

Accurate risk stratification and patient selection is necessary to identify patients who will benefit the most from surgery or be better treated with other non-surgical treatment strategies. We sought to identify which patients in the preoperative setting would likely derive the most or least benefit from resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for ICC between 1990 and 2017 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. A machine-based classification and regression tree (CART) was used to generate homogeneous groups of patients relative to overall survival (OS) based on preoperative factors.

RESULTS

Among 1146 patients, CART analysis revealed tumor number and size, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and preoperative lymph node (LN) status as the strongest prognostic factors associated with OS among patients undergoing resection for ICC. In turn, four groups of patients with distinct outcomes were generated through machine learning: Group 1 (n = 228): single ICC, size ≤ 5 cm, ALBI grade I, negative preoperative LN status; Group 2 (n = 708): (1) single tumor > 5 cm, (2) single tumor ≤ 5 cm, ALBI grade 2/3, and (3) single tumor ≤ 5 cm, ALBI grade 1, metastatic/suspicious LNs; Group 3 (n = 150): 2-3 tumors; Group 4 (n = 60): ≥ 4 tumors. 5-year OS among Group 1, 2, 3, and 4 patients was 60.5%, 35.8%, 27.5%, and 3.8%, respectively (p < 0.001). Similarly, 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) among Group 1, 2, 3, and 4 patients was 47%, 27.2%, 6.8%, and 0%, respectively (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The machine-based CART model identified distinct prognostic groups of patients with distinct outcomes based on preoperative factors. Survival decision trees may be useful as guides in preoperative patient selection and risk stratification.