Migratory connectivity of american woodcock using band return data

Disentangling data discrepancies with integrated population models

A common challenge for studying wildlife populations occurs when different survey methods provide inconsistent or incomplete inference on the trend, dynamics, or viability of a population. A potential solution to the challenge of conflicting or piecemeal data relies on the integration of multiple data types into a unified modeling framework, such as integrated population models (IPMs). IPMs are a powerful approach for species that inhabit spatially and seasonally complex environments. We provide guidance on exploiting the capabilities of IPMs to address inferential discrepancies that stem from spatiotemporal data mismatches. We illustrate this issue with analysis of a migratory species, the American Woodcock (Scolopax minor), in which individual monitoring programs suggest differing population trends. To address this discrepancy, we synthesized several long-term data sets (1963-2015) within an IPM to estimate continental-scale population trends, and link dynamic drivers across the full annual cycle and complete extent of the woodcock's geographic range in eastern North America. Our analysis reveals the limiting portions of the life cycle by identifying time periods and regions where vital rates are lowest and most variable, as well as which demographic parameters constitute the main drivers of population change. We conclude by providing recommendations for resolving conflicting population estimates within an integrated modeling approach, and discuss how strategies (e.g., data thinning, expert opinion elicitation) from other disciplines could be incorporated into ecological analyses when attempting to combine multiple, incongruent data types.

Annual cycle of White-winged Scoters (Melanitta fusca) in eastern North America: migratory phenology, population delineation, and connectivity

Understanding full annual cycle movements of long-distance migrants is essential for delineating populations, assessing connectivity, evaluating crossover effects between life stages, and informing management strategies for vulnerable or declining species. We used implanted satellite transmitters to track up to 2 years of annual cycle movements of 52 adult female White-winged Scoters (Melanitta fusca (Linnaeus, 1758)) captured in the eastern United States and Canada. We used these data to document annual cycle phenology; delineate migration routes; identify primary areas used during winter, stopover, breeding, and molt; and assess the strength of migratory connectivity and spatial population structure. Most White-winged Scoters wintered along the Atlantic coast from Nova Scotia to southern New England, with some on Lake Ontario. White-winged Scoters followed four migration routes to breeding areas from Quebec to the Northwest Territories. Principal postbreeding molting areas were in James Bay and the St. Lawrence River estuary. Migration phenology was synchronous regardless of winter or breeding origin. Cluster analyses delineated two primary breeding areas: one molting area and one wintering area. White-winged Scoters demonstrated overall weak to moderate connectivity among life stages, with molting to wintering connectivity the strongest. Thus, White-winged Scoters that winter in eastern North America appear to constitute a single continuous population.