The Gordian knot of mountain lion predation and bighorn sheep

Different patterns of coupled predator-prey dynamics when the same species interact in different locations

Individual predator and prey species exhibit coupled population dynamics in simple laboratory systems and simple natural communities. It is unclear how often such pairwise coupling occurs in more complex communities, in which an individual predator species might feed on several prey species and an individual prey species might be attacked by several predators. To examine this problem, we applied multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models to 5-year time-series of monthly surveys of a predatory fish, the eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki), and its littoral zone prey species, the least killifish (Heterandria formosa), in three locations in north Florida. The MARSS models were consistent with coupled predator-prey dynamics at two of the three locations. In one of these two locations, the estimated densities of the two species displayed classic predator-prey oscillations. In the third location, there was a positive effect of killifish density on mosquitofish density but no detectable effect of mosquitofish density on killifish density. In all three locations, increased submergent vegetation cover was associated with increased prey density but not increased predator density. Eigenvalues analyses for the joint predator-prey dynamics indicated that one of the cyclic locations had more stable dynamics than the other locations. The three different patterns demonstrate that the dynamics of a pairwise predator-prey interaction emerge not only from the characteristics of the prey and the predator, but also those of the habitat and trophic web in which the predator and prey are embedded.

Impacts of management practices on habitat selection during juvenile mountain lion dispersal

Dispersal is a complex series of movements before an individual establishes a home range. Animals must travel and forage in unfamiliar landscapes that include anthropogenic risks such as road crossings, harvest, and urban landscapes. We compare dispersal behavior of juvenile mountain lions (Puma concolor) from two geographically distinct populations in California and Nevada, USA. These two sites are ecologically similar but have different management practices; hunting is permitted in Nevada, whereas mountain lions are protected in California. We used GPS-collar data and net-squared displacement analysis to identify three dispersal states: exploratory, departure, and transient home range. We then compared each dispersal state of the two mountain lion populations using an integrated step selection analysis (iSSA). The model included explanatory variables hypothesized to influence one or more dispersal states, including distance to forest, shrub, water, hay and crop, developed lands, and four-wheel drive roads, as well as elevation and terrain ruggedness. Results revealed consistent habitat selection between sites across most landscape variables, with one notable exception: anthropogenic covariates, including distance to developed land, distance to hay and crop, and distance to four-wheeled drive roads, were only statistically significant on modeled habitat selection during dispersal in the population subject to hunting (i.e., Nevada). Results suggest that hunting (pursuit with hounds resulting in harvest) and non-lethal pursuit (pursuit with hounds but no harvest allowed) increase avoidance of anthropogenic landscapes during dispersal for juvenile mountain lions. By comparing populations, we provided valuable insights into the role of management in shaping dispersal behavior.

Behavioural and physiological responses of Small Tail Han sheep to predators

Prey animals modify their behaviour and physiology in the presence of predators. Domestic animals differ from wild animals in having less exposure to wild predators, but whether they still retain an antipredator instinct is frequently unknown. In this study, we used domesticated Small Tail Han sheep as a model prey animal to gauge their response to the presence of predators, in the form of odours from the faeces of lion, tiger, and leopard. The faeces of male sheep and male rabbit (as a heterogeneous non-predator) were used as control. We found that the frequency and time of feeding, exploration, moving, watching, and lying down behaviours were significantly affected by predator odour, and that there was an interaction between odour sources and sex. When exposed to predator odour, sheep reduced their frequency and time of feeding, and increased their exploratory, moving, and watching behaviours. Female sheep showed greater motivation towards frequent and lengthy exploration, moving, watching, and lying down behaviours than male sheep, and less motivation towards feeding and drinking behaviours. Serum cortisol levels were lowest in response to tiger stimuli. These results illustrated that Small Tail Han sheep could recognise predator odour and adjust their behaviour to display antipredator strategies, and displayed some physiological responses, although only changing in serum cortisol could be significantly attributed to the odour of predators.

Restoration of bighorn sheep: History, successes, and remaining conservation issues

Mammals are imperiled worldwide, primarily from habitat loss or modification, and exhibit downward trends in their populations and distributions. Likewise, large-bodied herbivores have undergone a collapse in numbers and are at the highest extinction risk of all mammals. Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) are among those large-bodied herbivores that possess a slow-paced life history, suffer from debilitating diseases, and have experienced range contractions across their historical distribution since the late 1800s. Translocations and reintroductions of these mountain ungulates are key aspects of restoration and often are used to re-establish populations in historical habitat or to supplement declining herds. Millions of US dollars and much effort by state and federal natural resource agencies, as well as public and private organizations, have been expended to restore bighorn sheep. Despite those efforts, translocated populations of bighorn sheep have not always been successful. We assessed restoration of bighorn sheep to provide insights in the context of conservation of populations of bighorn sheep, because this management tool is a frequently used to re-establish populations. We focused briefly on past efforts to restore bighorn sheep populations and followed with updates on the value of habitat enhancements, genetic issues, the importance of ecotypic or phenotypic adaptations when restoring populations, predation, and disease transmission. We also raised issues and posed questions that have potential to affect future decisions regarding the restoration of bighorn sheep. This information will help conservationists improve the success of conserving these iconic large mammals.

ABORTION AND NEONATAL MORTALITY DUE TO TOXOPLASMA GONDII IN BIGHORN SHEEP (OVIS CANADENSIS)

Low lamb recruitment can be an obstacle to bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) conservation and restoration. Causes of abortion and neonate loss in bighorn sheep, which may affect recruitment, are poorly understood. Toxoplasma gondii is a major cause of abortion and stillbirth in domestic small ruminants worldwide, but no reports exist documenting abortion or neonatal death in bighorn sheep attributable to toxoplasmosis. Between March 2019 and May 2021, eight fetal and neonatal bighorn lamb cadavers from four western US states (Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, and Washington) were submitted to the Washington Animal Disease Diagnostic Laboratory for postmortem examination, histologic examination, and ancillary testing to determine the cause of abortion or neonatal death. Necrotizing encephalitis characteristic of toxoplasmosis was identified histologically in six of eight cases, and T. gondii infection was confirmed by PCR in five cases with characteristic lesions. Other lesions attributable to toxoplasmosis were pneumonia (3/5 cases) and myocarditis (2/5 cases). Protozoal cysts were identified histologically within brain, lung, heart, skeletal muscle, adipose tissue, or a combination of samples in all five sheep with PCR-confirmed T. gondii infections. Seroprevalence of T. gondii ranged from 40-81% of adult females sampled in the Washington population in October and November 2018-2021, confirming high rates of exposure before detection of Toxoplasma abortions in this study. Of 1,149 bighorn sheep postmortem samples submitted to Washington Animal Disease Diagnostic Laboratory between January 2000 and May 2021, 21 of which were from fetuses or neonates, a single case of chronic toxoplasmosis was diagnosed in one adult ewe. Recent identification of Toxoplasma abortions in bighorn sheep suggests that toxoplasmosis is an underappreciated cause of reproductive loss. Abortions and neonatal mortalities should be investigated through postmortem and histologic examination, particularly in herds that are chronically small, demographically stagnant, or exhibit reproductive rates lower than expected.

The abundance and persistence of Caprinae populations

Stable or growing populations may go extinct when their sizes cannot withstand large swings in temporal variation and stochastic forces. Hence, the minimum abundance threshold defining when populations can persist without human intervention forms a key conservation parameter. We identify this threshold for many populations of Caprinae, typically threatened species lacking demographic data. Doing so helps triage conservation and management actions for threatened or harvested populations. Methodologically, we used population projection matrices and simulations, with starting abundance, recruitment, and adult female survival predicting future abundance, growth rate (λ), and population trend. We incorporated mean demographic rates representative of Caprinae populations and corresponding variances from desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni), as a proxy for Caprinae sharing similar life histories. We found a population’s minimum abundance resulting in ≤ 0.01 chance of quasi-extinction (QE; population ≤ 5 adult females) in 10 years and ≤ 0.10 QE in 30 years as 50 adult females, or 70 were translocation (removals) pursued. Discovering the threshold required 3 demographic parameters. We show, however, that monitoring populations’ relationships to this threshold requires only abundance and recruitment data. This applied approach avoids the logistical and cost hurdles in measuring female survival, making assays of population persistence more practical.

A novel camera trapping method for individually identifying pumas by facial features

Camera traps (CTs), used in conjunction with capture-mark-recapture analyses (CMR; photo-CMR), are a valuable tool for estimating abundances of rare and elusive wildlife. However, a critical requirement of photo-CMR is that individuals are identifiable in CT images (photo-ID). Thus, photo-CMR is generally limited to species with conspicuous pelage patterns (e.g., stripes or spots) using lateral-view images from CTs stationed along travel paths. Pumas (Puma concolor) are an elusive species for which CTs are highly effective at collecting image data, but their suitability to photo-ID is controversial due to their lack of pelage markings. For a wide range of taxa, facial features are useful for photo-ID, but this method has generally been limited to images collected with traditional handheld cameras. Here, we evaluate the feasibility of using puma facial features for photo-ID in a CT framework. We consider two issues: (1) the ability to capture puma facial images using CTs, and (2) whether facial images improve human ability to photo-ID pumas. We tested a novel CT accessory that used light and sound to attract the attention of pumas, thereby collecting face images for use in photo-ID. Face captures rates increased at CTs that included the accessory (n = 208, χ 2 = 43.23, p ≤ .001). To evaluate if puma faces improve photo-ID, we measured the inter-rater agreement of 5 independent assessments of photo-ID for 16 of our puma face capture events. Agreement was moderate to good (Fleiss' kappa = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.48-0.60), and was 92.90% greater than a previously published kappa using conventional CT methods. This study is the first time that such a technique has been used for photo-ID, and we believe a promising demonstration of how photo-ID may be feasible for an elusive but unmarked species.

Impact of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae on juvenile bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) survival in the northern Basin and Range ecosystem

Determining the demographic impacts of wildlife disease is complex because extrinsic and intrinsic drivers of survival, reproduction, body condition, and other factors that may interact with disease vary widely. Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae infection has been linked to persistent mortality in juvenile bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), although mortality appears to vary widely across subspecies, populations, and outbreaks. Hypotheses for that variation range from interactions with nutrition, population density, genetic variation in the pathogen, genetic variation in the host, and other factors. We investigated factors related to survival of juvenile bighorn sheep in reestablished populations in the northern Basin and Range ecosystem, managed as the formerly-recognized California subspecies (hereafter, "California lineage"). We investigated whether survival probability of 4-month juveniles would vary by (1) presence of M. ovipneumoniae-infected or exposed individuals in populations, (2) population genetic diversity, and (3) an index of forage suitability. We monitored 121 juveniles across a 3-year period in 13 populations in southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada. We observed each juvenile and GPS-collared mother semi-monthly and established 4-month capture histories for the juvenile to estimate survival. All collared adult females were PCR-tested at least once for M. ovipneumoniae infection. The presence of M. ovipneumoniae-infected juveniles was determined by observing juvenile behavior and PCR-testing dead juveniles. We used a known-fate model with different time effects to determine if the probability of survival to 4 months varied temporally or was influenced by disease or other factors. We detected dead juveniles infected with M. ovipneumoniae in only two populations. Derived juvenile survival probability at four months in populations where infected juveniles were not detected was more than 20 times higher. Detection of infected adults or adults with antibody levels suggesting prior exposure was less predictive of juvenile survival. Survival varied temporally but was not strongly influenced by population genetic diversity or nutrition, although genetic diversity within most study area populations was very low. We conclude that the presence of M. ovipneumoniae can cause extremely low juvenile survival probability in translocated bighorn populations of the California lineage, but found little influence that genetic diversity or nutrition affect juvenile survival. Yet, after the PCR+ adult female in one population died, subsequent observations found 11 of 14 ( 79%) collared adult females had surviving juveniles at 4-months, suggesting that targeted removals of infected adults should be evaluated as a management strategy.

Accurate population estimation of Caprinae using camera traps and distance sampling

With most of the world’s Caprinae taxa threatened with extinction, the IUCN appeals to the development of simple and affordable sampling methods that will produce credible abundance and distribution data for helping conserve these species inhabiting remote areas. Traditional sampling approaches, like aerial sampling or mark-capture-recapture, can generate bias by failing to meet sampling assumptions, or by incurring too much cost and logistical burden for most projects to address them. Therefore, we met the IUCN’s challenge by testing a sampling technique that leverages imagery from camera traps with conventional distance sampling, validating its operability in mountainous topography by comparing results to known abundances. Our project occurred within a captive facility housing a wild population of desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in the Chihuahuan desert of New Mexico, which is censused yearly. True abundance was always within our 90% confidence bounds, and the mean abundance estimates were within 4.9 individuals (average) of the census values. By demonstrating the veracity of this straightforward and inexpensive sampling method, we provide confidence in its operability, urging its use to fill conservation voids for Caprinae and other data-deficient species inhabiting rugged or heavily vegetated terrain.

Mountain goat survival and mortality during a period of increased puma abundance in the Black Hills, South Dakota

We investigated survival and cause-specific mortality for a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population during a period when the puma (Puma concolor) population was growing in the Black Hills, South Dakota, 2006–2018. We obtained survival data from 47 adult goats (n = 33 females, n = 14 males). Annual survival varied from 0.538 (95% CI [0.285–0.773]) to 1.00 (95% CI [1.00–1.00]) and puma predation was the primary cause-specific mortality factor over a 12-year period. Cumulative hectares of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) disturbance was a covariate of importance (w_i = 0.972; β = 0.580, 95% CI [0.302–0.859]) influencing survival. To our knowledge, this is the first account of puma being the primary mortality factor of mountain goats over a long-term study. The Black Hills system is unique because we could examine the expanded realized niche of puma in the absence of other large carnivores and their influence on mountain goats. We hypothesize that puma were being sustained at higher densities due to alternate prey sources (e.g., white-tailed deer; Odocoileous virginianus) and this small population of mountain goats was susceptible to predation by one or several specialized puma in the Black Hills. However, we also hypothesize a changing landscape with increased tree mortality due to insect infestation provided conditions for better predator detection by goats and increased survival. Alternatively, open canopy conditions may have increased understory forage production potentially increasing mountain goat survival but we did not evaluate this relationship. Survival and mortality rates of mountain goats should continue to be monitored as this small population may be highly susceptible to population declines due to slow growth rates.

Improving estimation of puma (Puma concolor) population density: clustered camera-trapping, telemetry data, and generalized spatial mark-resight models

Obtaining reliable population density estimates for pumas (Puma concolor) and other cryptic, wide-ranging large carnivores is challenging. Recent advancements in spatially explicit capture-recapture models have facilitated development of novel survey approaches, such as clustered sampling designs, which can provide reliable density estimation for expansive areas with reduced effort. We applied clustered sampling to camera-traps to detect marked (collared) and unmarked pumas, and used generalized spatial mark-resight (SMR) models to estimate puma population density across 15,314 km² in the southwestern USA. Generalized SMR models outperformed conventional SMR models. Integrating telemetry data from collars on marked pumas with detection data from camera-traps substantially improved density estimates by informing cryptic activity (home range) center transiency and improving estimation of the SMR home range parameter. Modeling sex of unmarked pumas as a partially identifying categorical covariate further improved estimates. Our density estimates (0.84–1.65 puma/100 km²) were generally more precise (CV = 0.24–0.31) than spatially explicit estimates produced from other puma sampling methods, including biopsy darting, scat detection dogs, and regular camera-trapping. This study provides an illustrative example of the effectiveness and flexibility of our combined sampling and analytical approach for reliably estimating density of pumas and other wildlife across geographically expansive areas.