Habitat and climatic associations of climate-sensitive species along a southern range boundary

Climate change and habitat loss are recognized as important drivers of shifts in wildlife species' geographic distributions. While often considered independently, there is considerable overlap between these drivers, and understanding how they contribute to range shifts can predict future species assemblages and inform effective management. Our objective was to evaluate the impacts of habitat, climatic, and anthropogenic effects on the distributions of climate-sensitive vertebrates along a southern range boundary in Northern Michigan, USA. We combined multiple sources of occurrence data, including harvest and citizen-science data, then used hierarchical Bayesian spatial models to determine habitat and climatic associations for four climate-sensitive vertebrate species (American marten [Martes americana], snowshoe hare [Lepus americanus], ruffed grouse [Bonasa umbellus] and moose [Alces alces]). We used total basal area of at-risk forest types to represent habitat, and temperature and winter habitat indices to represent climate. Marten associated with upland spruce-fir and lowland riparian forest types, hares with lowland conifer and aspen-birch, grouse with lowland riparian hardwoods, and moose with upland spruce-fir. Species differed in climatic drivers with hares positively associated with cooler annual temperatures, moose with cooler summer temperatures and grouse with colder winter temperatures. Contrary to expectations, temperature variables outperformed winter habitat indices. Model performance varied greatly among species, as did predicted distributions along the southern edge of the Northwoods region. As multiple species were associated with lowland riparian and upland spruce-fir habitats, these results provide potential for efficient prioritization of habitat management. Both direct and indirect effects from climate change are likely to impact the distribution of climate-sensitive species in the future and the use of multiple data types and sources in the modelling of species distributions can result in more accurate predictions resulting in improved management at policy-relevant scales.

Application of Least-Cost Movement Modeling in Planning Wildlife Mitigation Measures along Transport Corridors: Case Study of Forests and Moose in Lithuania

The present work presents the development of a moose movement model to explore the value of wildlife mitigation structures and examine how hypothetical changes in land use patterns could alter wildlife habitats at landscape scales. Collisions between vehicles and animals pose a threat to humans and wildlife populations, the most dangerous collisions being with moose. Migrations of moose are generally predictable and habitat-dependent. Here, we use GIS-based simulations of moose movements to examine road-related habitat fragmentation around the main highways A1 and A2 in Lithuania. From forest data, we develop a moose habitat suitability map. Then, by running multiple simulation iterations, we generate potential moose pathways and statistically describe the most efficient potential long-range movement routes that are based on the principles of habitat utilization. Reflecting the probabilities of cross-highway moose movement, ranks are assigned to all 1 km highway segments, characterizing them in terms of their likelihood of moose movement, and thus identifying discrete migration corridors and highway crossing zones. Bottlenecks are identified through simulation, such as where sections of wildlife fencing end without highway crossing structures, thereby creating a ‘spillover’ effect, i.e., moose moving parallel to the highway, then crossing. The tested model has proven the prognostic capacity of the tool to foresee locations of moose-vehicle collisions with high accuracy, thus allowing it to be a valuable addition to the toolbox of highway planners.