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Sethi SA, Koeberle AL, Poulton AJ, Linden DW, Diefenbach D, Buderman FE, Casalena MJ, Duren K. Multistage time-to-event models improve survival inference by partitioning mortality processes of tracked organisms. Sci Rep 2024; 14:14628. [PMID: 38918536 PMCID: PMC11199507 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-64653-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2024] [Accepted: 06/11/2024] [Indexed: 06/27/2024] Open
Abstract
Advances in tagging technologies are expanding opportunities to estimate survival of fish and wildlife populations. Yet, capture and handling effects could impact survival outcomes and bias inference about natural mortality processes. We developed a multistage time-to-event model that can partition the survival process into sequential phases that reflect the tagged animal experience, including handling and release mortality, post-release recovery mortality, and subsequently, natural mortality. We demonstrate performance of multistage survival models through simulation testing and through fish and bird telemetry case studies. Models are implemented in a Bayesian framework and can accommodate left, right, and interval censorship events. Our results indicate that accurate survival estimates can be achieved with reasonable sample sizes ( n ≈ 100 + ) and that multimodel inference can inform hypotheses about the configuration and length of survival stages needed to adequately describe mortality processes for tracked specimens. While we focus on survival estimation for tagged fish and wildlife populations, multistage time-to-event models could be used to understand other phenomena of interest such as migration, reproduction, or disease events across a range of taxa including plants and insects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Suresh A Sethi
- Aquatic Research and Environmental Assessment Center, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Brooklyn College, Brooklyn, NY, 11210, USA.
- Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA.
| | - Alex L Koeberle
- Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA
| | - Anna J Poulton
- Center for Applied Mathematics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA
| | - Daniel W Linden
- Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA
| | - Duane Diefenbach
- U.S. Geological Survey, Pennsylvania Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA
| | - Frances E Buderman
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA
| | | | - Kenneth Duren
- Pennsylvania Game Commission, Harrisburg, PA, 17110, USA
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Provencher JF, Wilcox AAE, Gibbs S, Howes LA, Mallory ML, Pybus M, Ramey AM, Reed ET, Sharp CM, Soos C, Stasiak I, Leafloor JO. BAITING AND BANDING: EXPERT OPINION ON HOW BAIT TRAPPING MAY INFLUENCE THE OCCURRENCE OF HIGHLY PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA (HPAI) AMONG DABBLING DUCKS. J Wildl Dis 2023; 59:590-600. [PMID: 37578749 DOI: 10.7589/jwd-d-22-00163] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2022] [Accepted: 05/09/2023] [Indexed: 08/15/2023]
Abstract
A Eurasian lineage highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) of the clade 2.3.4.4b (Goose/Guangdong lineage) was detected in migratory bird populations in North America in December 2021, and it, along with its reassortants, have since caused wild and domestic bird outbreaks across the continent. Relative to previous outbreaks, HPAIV cases among wild birds in 2022 exhibited wider geographic extent within North America and higher levels of mortality, suggesting the potential for population-level impacts. Given the possible conservation implications of HPAIV in wild birds, natural resource managers have sought guidance on actions that may mitigate negative effects of disease among North American bird populations, including modification of existing management practices. Banding of waterfowl is a critical tool for population management for several harvested species in North America, but some banding techniques, such as bait trapping, can lead to increased congregation of waterfowl, potentially altering HPAIV transmission. We used an expert opinion exercise to assess how bait trapping of dabbling ducks in Canada may influence HPAIV transmission and wild bird health. The expert group found that it is moderately likely that bait trapping of dabbling ducks in wetlands will significantly increase the transmission of HPAIV among individual ducks, but there is a low probability that this will result in significant population-level effects on North American dabbling ducks. Considering the lack of empirical work studying how capture and handling methods may change transmission of HPAIV among waterfowl, as well as the importance of bait trapping for waterfowl management in North America, future work should focus on filling knowledge gaps pertaining to the influence of baiting on HPAIV occurrence to better inform banding procedures and management decision making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer F Provencher
- Ecotoxicology and Wildlife Health Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, 1125 Colonel By Dr., Ottawa, Ontario K1S 5B6, Canada
| | - Alana A E Wilcox
- Ecotoxicology and Wildlife Health Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, 1125 Colonel By Dr., Ottawa, Ontario K1S 5B6, Canada
| | - Samantha Gibbs
- Wildlife Health Office, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Lower Suwannee National Wildlife Refuge, 16450 NW 31st Place, Chiefland, Florida 32626, USA
| | - Lesley-Anne Howes
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, 1125 Colonel By Dr., Ottawa, Ontario K1S 5B6, Canada
| | - Mark L Mallory
- Acadia University, 33 Westwood Ave., Wolfville, Nova Scotia B4P 2R6, Canada
| | - Margo Pybus
- Alberta Fish and Wildlife, Government of Alberta, 6909-116 St., Edmonton, Alberta T6H 4P2, Canada
| | - Andrew M Ramey
- U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science Center, 4210 University Dr., Anchorage, Alaska 99508, USA
| | - Eric T Reed
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 5019 52nd St., PO Box 2310, Yellowknife, Northwest Territories X1A 2P7, Canada
| | - Chris M Sharp
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Environmental Science and Technology Centre, 335 River Rd, Ottawa, Ontario K1V 1C7, Canada
| | - Catherine Soos
- Ecotoxicology and Wildlife Health Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Prairie and Northern Wildlife Research Centre, 115 Perimeter Rd, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 0X4, Canada
| | - Iga Stasiak
- Ministry of Environment, Government of Saskatchewan, 112 Research Dr., Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 3R3, Canada
| | - Jim O Leafloor
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Unit 510, 234 Donald St., Winnipeg, Manitoba R3C 1M8, Canada
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Gonnerman M, Linden DW, Shea SA, Sullivan K, Kamath P, Blomberg E. Including a spatial predictive process in band recovery models improves inference for Lincoln estimates of animal abundance. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e9444. [PMID: 36311403 PMCID: PMC9608798 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9444] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2022] [Revised: 09/22/2022] [Accepted: 10/05/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Abundance estimation is a critical component of conservation planning, particularly for exploited species where managers set regulations to restrict harvest based on current population size. An increasingly common approach for abundance estimation is through integrated population modeling (IPM), which uses multiple data sources in a joint likelihood to estimate abundance and additional demographic parameters. Lincoln estimators are one commonly used IPM component for harvested species, which combine information on the rate and total number of individuals harvested within an integrated band‐recovery framework to estimate abundance at large scales. A major assumption of the Lincoln estimator is that banding and recoveries are representative of the whole population, which may be violated if major sources of spatial heterogeneity in survival or harvest rates are not incorporated into the model. We developed an approach to account for spatial variation in harvest rates using a spatial predictive process, which we incorporated into a Lincoln estimator IPM. We simulated data under different configurations of sample sizes, harvest rates, and sources of spatial heterogeneity in harvest rate to assess potential model bias in parameter estimates. We then applied the model to data collected from a field study of wild turkeys (Meleagris gallapavo) to estimate local and statewide abundance in Maine, USA. We found that the band recovery model that incorporated a spatial predictive process consistently provided estimates of adult and juvenile abundance with low bias across a variety of spatial configurations of harvest rate and sampling intensities. When applied to data collected on wild turkeys, a model that did not incorporate spatial heterogeneity underestimated the harvest rate in some subregions. Consistent with simulation results, this led to overestimation of both local and statewide abundance. Our work demonstrates that a spatial predictive process is a viable mechanism to account for spatial variation in harvest rates and limit bias in abundance estimates. This approach could be extended to large‐scale band recovery data sets and has applicability for the estimation of population parameters in other ecological models as well.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew Gonnerman
- Department of Wildlife Fisheries and Conservation BiologyUniversity of MaineOronoMaineUSA
| | - Daniel W. Linden
- Greater Atlantic Regional Fisheries OfficeNOAA National Marine Fisheries ServiceGloucesterMassachusettsUSA
| | | | - Kelsey Sullivan
- Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and WildlifeBangorMaineUSA
| | - Pauline Kamath
- School of Food and AgricultureUniversity of MaineOronoMaineUSA
| | - Erik Blomberg
- Department of Wildlife Fisheries and Conservation BiologyUniversity of MaineOronoMaineUSA
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Thompson JM, Riecke TV, Daniels BL, Spragens KA, Gabrielson ML, Nicolai CA, Sedinger BS. Survival and mortality of green‐winged teal banded on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. J Wildl Manage 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22223] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jordan M. Thompson
- College of Natural Resources University of Wisconsin‐Stevens Point 800 Reserve Street Stevens Point WI 54481 USA
| | | | - Bryan L. Daniels
- Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 807 Chief Eddie Hoffman Highway Bethel AK 99559 USA
| | - Kyle A. Spragens
- Waterfowl Section, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife 1111 Washington Street SE, Olympia WA 98501 USA
| | - Melissa L. Gabrielson
- Chippewa National Forest, U.S. Forest Service 1235 Division Street Deer River MN 56636 USA
| | | | - Benjamin S. Sedinger
- College of Natural Resources University of Wisconsin‐Stevens Point 800 Reserve Street Stevens Point WI 54481 USA
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Sedinger JS, Lindberg MS, Riecke TV, Leach AG, Meixell BW, Nicolai CA, Koons DN. Do hunters target auxiliary markers? An example using black brant. J Wildl Manage 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- James S. Sedinger
- Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada Reno 1664 N. Virginia Street Reno NV 89557 USA
| | - Mark S. Lindberg
- Institute of Arctic Biology and Department of Biology and Wildlife University of Alaska Fairbanks, PO Box 757000, University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks AK 99775 USA
| | | | - Alan G. Leach
- Program in Ecology, Evolution and Conservation Biology and Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada Reno 1664 N. Virginia Street Reno NV 89557 USA
| | - Brandt W. Meixell
- U.S. Forest Service Chugach National Forest 612 2nd Street, Cordova Ranger District Cordova AK 99574 USA
| | | | - David N. Koons
- Department of Fish Wildlife, and Conservation Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology Colorado State University 1474 Campus Delivery Fort Collins CO 80523 USA
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