Posttonsillectomy hemorrhage: Blame on surgeons or genes?

A Predictive Model for Secondary Posttonsillectomy Hemorrhage in Pediatric Patients: An 8-Year Retrospective Study

Objectives

Posttonsillectomy hemorrhage (PTH) is a common and potentially life-threatening complication in pediatric tonsillectomy. Early identification and prediction of PTH are of great significance. Currently, there are very few tools available for clinicians to accurately assess the risk of PTH. This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for secondary PTH.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 492 individuals who underwent tonsillectomy or tonsillotomy in Children's Hospital of Soochow University from July 1st, 2015 to December 31th, 2023. The study population was randomly divided into the training set and the validation set at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen features. Multivariate logistic regression and seven machine learning algorithms were used to construct predictive models. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were used to compare the predictive performance. The SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method was used to interpret the results of the best-performing model.

Results

One multivariate logistic regression model and seven machine learning models were constructed. The XGBoost model yielded the best performance in the validation set. The SHAP method ranked the features of the XGBoost model based on their importance and provided both global and local explanations of the model.

Conclusion

This study established a machine learning-based predictive model for secondary PTH, which may enable clinicians to accurately assess the risk of secondary PTH in children.

Level of Evidence

4.

Specified data for tonsil surgery in Germany

Background: Tonsillectomy rates vary considerably among different states, regions, and times. This study was conducted to identify the prevalence of “chronic” tonsillitis, peritonsillar abscess, hypertrophy of the tonsils with and without adenoids in absolute and relative numbers in an 80 million people nation. Moreover, the number and rates of different surgical procedures to resolve either “chronic” tonsillitis, peritonsillar abscess, or upper airway obstruction due to (adeno)tonsillar hypertrophy over several years was evaluated in this study (tonsillectomy, adenotonsillectomy, tonsillotomy, abscess tonsillectomy, transoral incision and drainage). Finally, the post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage rate was calculated and analyzed in relation to age and gender.

Material and methods: Calculations were based on data as published by the Federal Institute of Statistics or on request, if needed. The latest data were provided for 2013.

Results: The total number of the aforementioned diseases (stratified by ICD-10) decreased from 142,574 (in 2000) to 87,624 in 2013 (38.5%). Tonsillectomy, with or without adenoidectomy, was performed in a total of 833,896 patients between 2006 and 2013 in Germany. The yearly number decreased continually from 120,993 in 2006 to 84,332 procedures in 2013 (30.3%). The most significant decrease was registered in patients younger than 20 years of age for this time period: 70.92 per 10,000 in 2010 to 58.68 per 10,000 in 2013. If all age groups were included, the rate decreased from 13.34 per 10,000 to 10.90 per 10,000. In contrast, an increasing number of tonsillotomies was observed between 2007 (4,659 procedures) and 2013 (11,493). The cumulated number of procedures was 59,049. A constant number of 15,000 cases with peritonsillar abscess were diagnosed per year in Germany (19 patients per 100,000). The prevalence increased significantly at an age of 15 years and there was a preponderance of female patients below that age. Compared to the transoral incision and drainage, a 2.8-fold greater number of abscess tonsillectomies were performed annually. Post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage was experienced in 5.98% of all patients after 245,721 procedures in 2010 and 2013 (all indications, except tonsillotomy). Bleeding complications had occurred less frequently in female patients (5.06% vs. 7.02%). Finally, a considerable increase of post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage in patients older than 10 years of age was registered in male patients only.

Conclusion: Chronic tonsillitis was less frequently diagnosed and surgically treated in terms of tonsillectomy (with or without adenoidectomy), particularly in female patients. In contrast, the number of tonsillotomies increased continually, particularly in male patients. Peritonsillar abscess was diagnosed and surgically treated in a constant number of patients in the yearly comparison. Most of these patients were scheduled for abscess tonsillectomy, and only a 2.8-fold smaller number for transoral incision and drainage. Independent from the indication for surgery, post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage was clearly associated with male gender and age (>10 years). The study reveals a dramatic change mandating further surveillance in insurance companies and authorities in the national health system of an 80 million people nation. (Tab. 1)

Risk of post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage by clinical diagnosis

OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been associated with upregulation of prothrombotic factors. We hypothesize that diagnosis of OSA may be protective against postoperative hemorrhage. This study investigates the relationships between preoperative clinical diagnosis and postoperative hemorrhage.

STUDY DESIGN

Seven-year retrospective case-control study.

METHODS

Medical records of tonsillectomy subjects with and without hemorrhage were reviewed for demographics, clinical diagnosis, and treatment. Clinical diagnoses included OSA confirmed by polysomnogram, sleep-disordered breathing (SDB), chronic tonsillitis, and a mixed group.

RESULTS

A total of 9,023 tonsillectomy patients were identified (52.0% male, 48.0% female; mean age, 6.9 years). Of these, 2.4% (n = 212) presented with hemorrhage. There were 48 (22.6%) primary and 164 (77.4%) secondary hemorrhages. The control group consisted of 1,488 nonhemorrhage patients. A multivariate logistic regression analysis compared the two groups controlling for age, sex, and clinical diagnosis. OSA patients were half as likely to hemorrhage compared to chronic tonsillitis patients (P = .04). SDB patients also had a lower chance of hemorrhage compared to chronic tonsillitis patients; this result was not significant (P = .09). Patients older than 6 years had a higher hemorrhage rate (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that patients with OSA may be less likely to have postoperative hemorrhage than patients with chronic tonsillitis. Younger age was associated with fewer hemorrhages.