Utility-based criteria for selecting patients with hepatocellular carcinoma for liver transplantation: A multicenter cohort study using the alpha-fetoprotein model as a survival predictor

Multidisciplinary Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in 2023: Italian practice Treatment Guidelines of the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver (AISF), Italian Association of Medical Oncology (AIOM), Italian Association of Hepato-Bilio-Pancreatic Surgery (AICEP), Italian Association of Hospital Gastroenterologists (AIGO), Italian Association of Radiology and Clinical Oncology (AIRO), Italian Society of Pathological Anatomy and Diagnostic Cytology (SIAPeC-IAP), Italian Society of Surgery (SIC), Italian Society of Gastroenterology (SIGE), Italian Society of Medical and Interventional Radiology (SIRM), Italian Organ Transplant Society (SITO), and Association of Patients with Hepatitis and Liver Disease (EpaC) - Part I - Surgical treatments

Worldwide, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third most common cause of cancer-related death. The remarkable improvements in treating HCC achieved in the last years have increased the complexity of HCC management. Following the need to have updated guidelines on the multidisciplinary treatment management of HCC, the Italian Scientific Societies involved in the management of this cancer have promoted the drafting of a new dedicated document. This document was drawn up according to the GRADE methodology needed to produce guidelines based on evidence. Here is presented the first part of guidelines, focused on the multidisciplinary tumor board of experts and surgical treatments of HCC.

Progression of AFP SCORE is a Preoperative Predictive Factor of Microvascular Invasion in Selected Patients Meeting Liver Transplantation Criteria for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is one of the main prognostic factors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT), but its occurrence is unpredictable before surgery. The alpha fetoprotein (AFP) model (composite score including size, number, AFP), currently used in France, defines the selection criteria for LT. This study’s aim was to evaluate the preoperative predictive value of AFP SCORE progression on MVI and overall survival during the waiting period for LT. Data regarding LT recipients for HCC from 2007 to 2015 were retrospectively collected from a single institutional database. Among 159 collected cases, 34 patients progressed according to AFP SCORE from diagnosis until LT. MVI was shown to be an independent histopathological prognostic factor according to Cox regression and competing risk analysis in our cohort. AFP SCORE progression was the only preoperative predictive factor of MVI (OR = 10.79 [2.35–49.4]; p 0.002). The 5-year overall survival in the progression and no progression groups was 63.9% vs. 86.3%, respectively (p = 0.001). Cumulative incidence of HCC recurrence was significantly different between the progression and no progression groups (Sub-HR = 4.89 [CI 2–11.98]). In selected patients, the progression of AFP SCORE during the waiting period can be a useful preoperative tool to predict MVI.

The ITA.LI.CA Consortium: How multicentre collaboration helped shape the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma on the basis of real-world evidence

The growing diffusion of digitalisation and informatics has promoted the creation and analysis of large databases able to provide solid information. Analyses of "big data" generated by real-world practice are particularly useful for knowing incidence and mortality, disparities, temporal trends of diseases, identifying risk factors, predicting future scenarios, obtaining inputs for cost-effectiveness and treatment benefit modelling, designing new studies, and monitoring rare diseases. Although randomised controlled trials (RCTs) represent the gold-standard for generating evidence about new diagnostic, preventive or therapeutic procedures, their results should be integrated with real-world data to personalise patient management. Indeed, a substantial proportion of patients observed in field-practice have characteristics that prevent the access to RCTs or, when included, form sub-groups too small to provide robust post-hoc analyses. Furthermore, as RCTs are resource-consuming and designed to maximize the probability of success, they are generally performed in expert centres of high-income areas, excluding economically-deprived regions which could complementarily contribute to the medical progress as huge sources of real-world data. These considerations fuelled the creation in 1998 of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) consortium, with the aim to merge data of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) managed in several centres. This cooperation permitted to analyse a multicentre, large cohort of HCC patients. Since then, the ITA.LI.CA group has progressively expanded to currently include 24 centres, and its database counts more than 9,000 patients. This article describes the history of the ITA.LI.CA consortium and presents its scientific production whose results greatly contributed to the incessant improvement of HCC management.

Shadows Behind Using Simple Risk Models in Selection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients for Liver Transplantation

OBJECTIVE

To assess the potential influence of replacing Milan criteria with simple risk scores on outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing liver transplantation.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Several risk scores combining morphological and biological features were recently proposed for precise selection of HCC patients for transplantation.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 282 HCC liver transplant recipients. Recurrence-free survival (RFS), the primary outcome measure, was evaluated according to Metroticket 2.0 model and French AFP model with Milan criteria serving as benchmark.

RESULTS

Patients were well stratified with respect to RFS by Milan criteria, Metroticket 2.0 criteria, and AFP model cut-off ≤2 points (all P < 0.001) with c-statistics of 0.680, 0.695, and 0.681, respectively. Neither Metroticket 2.0 criteria (0.014, Z = 0.023; P = 0.509) nor AFP model (-0.014, Z = -0.021; P = 0.492) provided significant net reclassification improvement. Both patients within the Metroticket 2.0 criteria and AFP model ≤2 points exhibited heterogeneous recurrence risk, dependent upon alpha-fetoprotein (P = 0.026) and tumor number (P = 0.024), respectively. RFS of patients beyond Milan but within Metroticket 2.0 criteria (75.3%) or with AFP model ≤2 points (74.1%) was inferior to that observed for patients within Milan criteria (87.1%; P = 0.067 and P = 0.045, respectively). Corresponding microvascular invasion rates were 37.2% and 50.0%, compared with 13.6% in patients within Milan criteria (both P < 0.001). Moreover, Milan-out status was associated with significantly higher recurrence risk in subgroups within Metroticket 2.0 criteria (P = 0.021) or AFP model ≤2 points (P = 0.014).

CONCLUSION

Utilization of simple risk scores for liver transplant eligibility assessment leads to selection of patients at higher risk of posttransplant HCC recurrence.

Economic Implications of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance and Treatment: A Guide for Clinicians

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing worldwide, with significant morbidity and associated costs. Treatment allocation depends on the stage of diagnosis; however, resource utilization can be significant across all stages. We aimed to summarize the available data on the cost effectiveness of surveillance of and treatments for HCC in the context of current treatment guidelines. We performed a focused review of studies investigating the economic burden and cost effectiveness of HCC surveillance treatment modalities published between January 2000 and January 2019. The overall economic burden of HCC is increasing in the USA and in several countries worldwide due to its rising incidence and the proliferation of therapies. Liver transplantation is a cost-effective strategy for early-stage HCC treatment in selected patients. In settings where liver transplantation is not available or in patients awaiting transplant, ablative or locoregional therapies are cost effective with increases in quality-adjusted life-years. First-line therapy with sorafenib for advanced stage HCC is cost effective in the treatment of compensated cirrhosis. The cost effectiveness of recently approved systemic therapies for advanced HCC require further investigation. Existing studies have shown that guideline-recommended surveillance techniques and several available therapies for the treatment of HCC are cost effective; however, there are limitations in the literature, including reliance on suboptimal modeling with incomplete/simplified model structure or inadequate inputs. With increasing therapeutic options in patients with HCC, understanding their relative value is critical in designing HCC treatment algorithms.

Minimal increases of serum alpha-foetoprotein herald HCC detection in Caucasian HBV cirrhotic patients under long-term oral therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In Caucasian patients with compensated cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B virus (HBV), the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) developing persist despite long-term nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUC) treatment. In the surveillance of this population with persistently normal transaminases because of NUCs, the added value of serum alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) monitoring is poorly defined.

METHODS

Two hundred and fifty-eight Caucasian HCC-free patients with HBV-compensated cirrhosis who started tenofovir or entecavir while having normal serum AFP levels (≤7 ng/mL) at baseline or within the first year of treatment underwent HCC surveillance by semiannual ultrasound evaluation and serum AFP determination.

RESULTS

During 96 (18-120) months of antiviral therapy, 3947 AFP values were collected, median AFP level was 2 ng/mL. Thirty-five patients developed an HCC at an overall 8-year crude cumulative incidence of 14% (annual incidence of 2%). HCC incidence increased in parallel with increasing AFP thresholds: 24%, 36%, 64% and 92% for AFP levels after exceeding 2, 4, 6 and 7 ng/mL for the first-time. Of the 12 patients who experienced an AFP rise > 7 ng/mL, 11 developed an HCC and one had liver metastases of lung cancer. Overall, an AFP > 7 ng/mL had 99.6% specificity, 31.4% sensitivity, 91.7% PPV, 90.2% NPV, LR+ 70.1 and LR- 0.69 for HCC; this excellent specificity was maintained up to 18 months before HCC detection.

CONCLUSIONS

In Caucasian patients with HBV-compensated cirrhosis on long-term NUC, an increase in AFP over 7 ng/mL shows excellent specificity, heralding HCC development within 1 year.

Metallothionein 1M suppresses tumorigenesis in hepatocellular carcinoma

Members of the metallothionein (MT) family are involved in metal detoxifcation and in the protection of cells against certain electrophilic carcinogens. In present study, it was found that MT1M was downregulated in more than 77.1% (91/118) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) tissues compared with adjacent non-tumor tissues. Furthermore, overexpression of MT1M inhibited cell viability, colony formation, cell migration and invasion in HCC cell lines and tumor cell growth in xenograft nude mice, and activated cell apoptosis in HCC cell lines. In addition, immunohistochemistry analysis showed MT1M was negative or weak staining in tumor tissues but moderate or strong staining in adjacent non-tumor tissues. The sensitivity and specificity of MT1M for HCC diagnosis were 76.27% and 89.83%, respectively. In conclusion, MT1M was identified as a potential tumor marker for HCC and may serve as a useful therapeutic agent for HCC gene therapy.

Selection of patients with hepatocellular cancer: a difficult balancing between equity, utility, and benefit

Although liver transplantation (LT) represents the gold-standard strategy for hepatocellular cancer (HCC), its use is circumscribed by several factors like donor shortage, perioperative complications, or competition with other candidates without HCC. Moreover, different alternative approaches like resection or loco-regional therapies may be attempted in selected cases. The best option for the treatment of an HCC patient is a complex decision, involving several ethical principles including: equity (horizontal equity and vertical equity or urgency), and utility. These principles influence the different phases of the patient selection process for LT: inscription in the waiting list (WL), deciding upon patient priority and drop-out before LT, allocating the liver donor to the best matched recipient. The best end-point for describing the principle of utility is the "transplant benefit" (TB). This concept expresses the survival gain obtained comparing LT with the best alternative therapies (i.e., difference between life years obtained with and without LT). The TB used with a mid-term time horizon (post-transplant 5-10 years), has the intrinsic potential to reach the dignity of an independent LT selection principle. Thus, the present review investigates the role of organ allocation using a TB model with the intent to introduce equity among patients transplanted having HCC or non-tumoral diseases.

Personalized treatment of patients with very early hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), in its very early stage, is heterogeneous both in terms of liver function (i.e., presence or absence of portal hypertension, model for end-stage liver disease score, Child-Pugh score 5 or 6, bilirubin level) and tumor characteristics (i.e., location, alpha-fetoprotein values, pathological features such as microvascular invasion, tumor grade and satellitosis). Existing evidence in comparing different curative options for patients with very early HCC is poor due to small sample sizes and lack of solid subgroup analyses. Large observational studies are available, with the potential to identify effective interventions in different subgroup of patients and to discover which treatments work "in a real world setting". These studies suggest some important treatment selection strategies in very early HCC patients. According to extent of liver resection, and liver function, percutaneous ablation or liver resection are the recommended first line therapies in these patients. Laparoscopic surgery (resection or ablation) is the preferable strategy when the tumor is in the surface of the liver or close to extra-hepatic organs. Due to scarce donor resources and competition with patients at high transplant benefit (HCC patients unsuitable for non-transplant radical therapies and non-HCC patients with decompensated cirrhosis), transplantation is recommended only as second line therapy in patients with very early stage HCC in case of tumor recurrence or liver failure after ablation or liver resection.

The Warsaw Proposal for the Use of Extended Selection Criteria in Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Cancer

BACKGROUND

Combination of the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) and the up-to-7 criteria with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) cutoff of 100 ng/ml was proposed as the Warsaw expansion of the Milan criteria in selection of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) patients for liver transplantation. The purpose of this retrospective study was to validate this proposal.

METHODS

A total of 240 HCC patients after liver transplantation were included. Recurrence-free survival and overall survival at 5 years were set as the primary and secondary outcome measures, respectively.

RESULTS

The Warsaw expansion increased transplant eligibility rate by 20.3 %. AFP >100 ng/ml significantly increased the recurrence risk in patients within the Milan criteria (p = 0.025) and in those beyond, yet within either the UCSF or the up-to-7 criteria (p < 0.001). Recurrence-free survival at 5 years was 90.8 % for patients within the Milan criteria, 100.0 % in patients within the Warsaw expansion, 54.9 % in patients beyond the Warsaw expansion but within either the UCSF or the up-to-7 criteria, and 45.1 % in patients beyond both the UCSF and the up-to-7 criteria (p < 0.001). The corresponding overall survival rates were 71.6, 82.4, 64.3, and 55.3 %, respectively (p = 0.027).

CONCLUSIONS

The Warsaw expansion of the Milan criteria substantially increases the recipient pool without compromising outcomes.