Serum fibrosis biomarkers predict death and graft loss in liver transplantation recipients

Clinical value of [18F]AlF-NOTA-FAPI-04 PET/CT for assessing early-stage liver fibrosis in adult liver transplantation recipients compared with chronic HBV patients

AIMS

To investigate the clinical value and performance of [18F]AlF-NOTA-FAPI-04 PET/CT in assessing early-stage liver fibrosis in liver transplantation (LT) recipients.

METHODS

A prospective study including 17 LT recipients and 12 chronic Hepatitis B (CHB) patients was conducted. All patients received liver biopsy, transient elastography (TE), and [18F]AlF-NOTA-FAPI-04 PET/CT. On [18F]AlF-NOTA-FAPI-04 PET/CT scans, the liver parenchyma's maximum standardized uptake values (SUVmax) were measured. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was applied to determine the diagnostic efficacy of [18F]AlF-NOTA-FAPI-04 PET/CT in early-stage liver fibrosis (S1-S2) compared with the diagnostic performance of TE.

RESULTS

Among those 29 patients enrolled in this study, 15(51.7%) had fibrosis S0, 10(34.5%) had S1, and 4(13.8%) had S2, respectively. The SUVmax of patients with early-stage liver fibrosis was significantly higher than those without liver fibrosis in LT recipients and CHB patients (P = 0.004, P = 0.02). In LT recipients, a SUVmax cut-off value of 2.0 detected early-stage liver fibrosis with an AUROC of 0.92 (P = 0.006), and a liver stiffness measurements (LSM) score cut-off value of 8.2 kPa diagnosed early-stage liver fibrosis with an AUROC of 0.80 (P = 0.012). In CHB patients, a SUVmax cut-off value of 2.7 detected early-stage liver fibrosis with an AUROC of 0.94 (P < 0.001) and an LSM scores cut-off value of 8.4 kPa diagnosed early-stage liver fibrosis with an AUROC of 0.91 (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

[18F]AlF-NOTA-FAPI-04 PET/CT could be applied to evaluate early-stage liver fibrosis in LT recipients and CHB patients properly, with the potential additional advantages in monitoring and predicting complications after LT.

Assessment of hepatic fibrosis with non-invasive indices in subjects with diabetes before and after liver transplantation

Introduction

One of the most common complications of cirrhosis is diabetes, which prevalence is strictly related to severity of hepatopathy. Actually, there are no data on the persistence of post-transplant glucose abnormalities and on a potential impact of diabetes on development of fibrosis in the transplanted liver. To this aim, we evaluated liver fibrosis in cirrhotic subjects before and after being transplanted.

Methods

The study included 111 individuals who had liver transplantation. The assessment was performed before and two years after surgery to investigate a potential impact of the persistence of diabetes on developing de novo fibrosis in the transplanted liver. The degree of fibrosis was assessed using the Fibrosis Index Based on 4 Factors (FIB-4) and the Aspartate to Platelet Ratio Index (APRI).

Results

At pre-transplant evaluation, 63 out of 111 (56.8%) subjects were diabetic. Diabetic subjects had higher FIB-4 (Geometric mean, 95% confidence interval: 9.74, 8.32-11.41 vs 5.93, 4.71-7.46, P<0.001) and APRI (2.04, 1.69-2.47 vs 1.18, 0.90-1.55, P<0.001) compared to non-diabetic subjects. Two years after transplantation, 39 out of 111 (35.1%) subjects remained with diabetes and continued to show significantly higher FIB-4 (3.14, 2.57-3.82 vs 1.87, 1.55-2.27, P<0.001) and APRI (0.52, 0.39-0.69 vs 0.26, 0.21-0.32, P<0.001) compared to subjects without diabetes.

Discussion

Thus, persistence of diabetes after surgery is a possible risk factor for an evolution to fibrosis in the transplanted liver, potentially leading to worsened long-term outcomes in this population.

A Comprehensive Review of Liver Allograft Fibrosis and Steatosis: From Cause to Diagnosis

Despite advances in posttransplant care, long-term outcomes for liver transplant recipients remain unchanged. Approximately 25% of recipients will advance to graft cirrhosis and require retransplantation. Graft fibrosis progresses in the context of de novo or recurrent disease. Recurrent hepatitis C virus infection was previously the most important cause of graft failure but is now curable in the majority of patients. However, with an increasing prevalence of obesity and diabetes and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease as the most rapidly increasing indication for liver transplantation, metabolic dysfunction-associated liver injury is anticipated to become an important cause of graft fibrosis alongside alloimmune hepatitis and alcoholic liver disease. To better understand the landscape of the graft fibrosis literature, we summarize the associated epidemiology, cause, potential mechanisms, diagnosis, and complications. We additionally highlight the need for better noninvasive methods to ameliorate the management of graft fibrosis. Some examples include leveraging the microbiome, genetic, and machine learning methods to address these limitations. Overall, graft fibrosis is routinely seen by transplant clinicians, but it requires a better understanding of its underlying biology and contributors that can help inform diagnostic and therapeutic practices.

Development of a Radiomics-Based Model to Predict Graft Fibrosis in Liver Transplant Recipients: A Pilot Study

Liver Transplantation is complicated by recurrent fibrosis in 40% of recipients. We evaluated the ability of clinical and radiomic features to flag patients at risk of developing future graft fibrosis. CT scans of 254 patients at 3-6 months post-liver transplant were retrospectively analyzed. Volumetric radiomic features were extracted from the portal phase using an Artificial Intelligence-based tool (PyRadiomics). The primary endpoint was clinically significant (≥F2) graft fibrosis. A 10-fold cross-validated LASSO model using clinical and radiomic features was developed. In total, 75 patients (29.5%) developed ≥F2 fibrosis by a median of 19 (4.3-121.8) months. The maximum liver attenuation at the venous phase (a radiomic feature reflecting venous perfusion), primary etiology, donor/recipient age, recurrence of disease, brain-dead donor, tacrolimus use at 3 months, and APRI score at 3 months were predictive of ≥F2 fibrosis. The combination of radiomics and the clinical features increased the AUC to 0.811 from 0.793 for the clinical-only model (p = 0.008) and from 0.664 for the radiomics-only model (p < 0.001) to predict future ≥F2 fibrosis. This pilot study exploring the role of radiomics demonstrates that the addition of radiomic features in a clinical model increased the model's performance. Further studies are required to investigate the generalizability of this experimental tool.

A deep learning framework for personalised dynamic diagnosis of graft fibrosis after liver transplantation: a retrospective, single Canadian centre, longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Recurrent graft fibrosis after liver transplantation can threaten both graft and patient survival. Therefore, early detection of fibrosis is essential to avoid disease progression and the need for retransplantation. Non-invasive blood-based biomarkers of fibrosis are limited by moderate accuracy and high cost. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of machine learning algorithms in detecting graft fibrosis using longitudinal clinical and laboratory data.

METHODS

In this retrospective, longitudinal study, we trained machine learning algorithms, including our novel weighted long short-term memory (LSTM) model, to predict the risk of significant fibrosis using follow-up data from 1893 adults who had a liver transplantation between Feb 1, 1987, and Dec 30, 2019, with at least one liver biopsy post transplantation. Liver biopsy samples with indefinitive fibrosis stage and those from patients with multiple transplantations were excluded. Longitudinal clinical variables were collected from transplantation to the date of last available liver biopsy. Deep learning models were trained on 70% of the patients as the training set and 30% of the patients as the test set. The algorithms were also separately tested on longitudinal data from patients in a subgroup of patients (n=149) who had transient elastography within 1 year before or after the date of liver biopsy. Weighted LSTM model performance for diagnosing significant fibrosis was compared against LSTM, other deep learning models (recurrent neural network and temporal convolutional network), and machine learning models (Random Forest, Support vector machines, Logistic regression, Lasso regression, and Ridge regression) and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and transient elastography.

FINDINGS

1893 people who had a liver transplantation (1261 [67%] men and 632 [33%] women) with at least one liver biopsy between Jan 1, 1992, and June 30, 2020, were included in the study (591 [31%] cases and 1302 [69%] controls). The median age at liver transplantation was 53·7 years (IQR 47·3-59·0) for cases and 55·3 years (48·0 to 61·2) for controls. The median time interval between transplant and liver biopsy was 21 months (5 to 71). The weighted LSTM model (area under the curve 0·798 [95% CI 0·790 to 0·810]) consistently outperformed other methods, including unweighted LSTM (0·761 [0·750 to 0·769]; p=0·031) Recurrent Neural Network (0·736 [0·721 to 0·744]), Temporal Convolutional Networks (0·700 [0·662 to 0·747], and Random Forest 0·679 [0·652 to 0·707]), FIB-4 (0·650 [0·636 to 0·663]) and APRI (0·682 [0·671 to 0·694]) when diagnosing F2 or worse stage fibrosis. In a subgroup of patients with transient elastography results, weighted LSTM was not significantly better at detecting fibrosis (≥F2; 0·705 [0·687 to 0·724]) than transient elastography (0·685 [0·662 to 0·704]). The top ten variables predictive for significant fibrosis were recipient age, primary indication for transplantation, donor age, and longitudinal data for creatinine, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin, platelets, white blood cell count, and weight.

INTERPRETATION

Deep learning algorithms, particularly weighted LSTM, outperform other routinely used non-invasive modalities and could help with the earlier diagnosis of graft fibrosis using longitudinal clinical and laboratory variables. The list of most important predictive variables for the development of fibrosis will enable clinicians to modify their management accordingly to prevent onset of graft cirrhosis.

FUNDING

Canadian Institute of Health Research, American Society of Transplantation, Toronto General and Western Hospital Foundation, and Paladin Labs.

Effectiveness of Direct-acting Agents After Liver Transplantation and Regression of Biomarkers Post-HCV Treatment: A Real-life Study in Rio de Janeiro

BACKGROUND

Data concerning hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment using direct-acting agents (DAAs) post liver transplantation (LT) remains scarce in low- and average-income countries.

AIM OF THE STUDY

To evaluate the safety and efficacy of post-LT HCV treatment using DAAs in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), and to assess the course of hepatic biomarkers after sustained virological response (SVR).

METHODS

Data from LT recipients with recurrent HCV treated using DAAs was retrospectively analyzed. HCV was defined by detectable HCV-RNA with elevated aminotransferases and/or histological signs of infection on liver biopsy post LT. SVR was defined as undetectable HCV-RNA 12 weeks after the end of treatment. Aspartate-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) and Fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) were calculated before treatment and after SVR.

RESULTS

116 patients (63% male, median age 62 years, 75% genotype 1 and 62% with hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC] prior to LT) were included. Cirrhosis was identified in the allograft of 21 subjects (18%). The overall SVR was 96.6% without differences in SVR proportion according to clinical/demographic characteristics, genotype or presence of cirrhosis. SVR rates were similar in individuals with and without HCC pre-LT (95.8% [95% CI: 87.6-98.7] vs. 97.7% [95% CI: 85.0-99.7%], p = 0.588). No serious adverse events were observed and the use of ribavirin was associated with at least one adverse event (OR = 8.71 [95% CI: 3.17-23.99]). SVR was associated with regression of APRI (OR = 26.00 [95% CI 4.27-1065.94]) and FIB-4 (OR = 15.00 [95% CI: 2.30-631.47]).

CONCLUSION

Post-LT HCV treatment with DAAs was safe and effective and associated with a significant decrease in hepatic biomarker levels after SVR.

Clinical implications of serum autotoxin in regular follow up after pediatric living donor liver transplantation for biliary atresia

BACKGROUND

Pediatric patients sometimes develop graft fibrosis after living donor liver transplant (LDLT). Autotaxin is a recently developed serum marker for hepatic fibrosis. We studied the relationship between serum autotaxin levels and histological findings in patients after LDLT for biliary atresia (BA).

METHODS

Information on patients aged <19 years who received LDLT for BA and were followed for at least 1 year after LDLT was gathered. Autotaxin levels were compared with pathological fibrosis scores.

RESULTS

The study included 52 patients, of whom 4 patients had no fibrosis (F0), 36 patients had F1 fibrosis, and 12 patients had F2. The median serum autotaxin level was 0.89 mg/L. In patients with portal vein (PV) complications such as stenosis or thrombosis (n = 7), the mean autotoxin level was 1.25 mg/L compared with 0.95 mg/L in patients without PV complications (p = 0.004). Among patients without PV complications, the mean autotaxin level was 0.90, 0.88, and 1.18 mg/L in F0, F1, and F2 fibrosis, respectively. The mean autotaxin was higher in F2 fibrosis than in F0 or F1 fibrosis (p<0.05). Autotoxin had a high area under the curve (0.86) with the cut-off level of 0.897 mg/L.

CONCLUSION

Serum autotaxin is a novel marker for liver fibrosis in patients after pediatric LDLT for BA.

TYPE OF STUDY

Study of Diagnostic Test.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level II.

Noninvasive Diagnostic Methods for the Assessment of Hepatic Fibrosis in Liver Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND

Hepatic fibrosis in liver transplant recipients is the main predictive factor for graft function. Diagnostic methods for hepatic fibrosis staging should be available, reproducible, and noninvasive, if possible. We aimed to compare diagnostic methods for the assessment of hepatic fibrosis in transplant recipients: liver biopsy as a reference method, dynamic elastography, and direct and indirect blood markers (the ELF test [Enhanced Liver Fibrosis] test and the FibroTest). We sought to set a cutoff value for each method in order to assess significant liver fibrosis (F ≥2).

METHODS

The study involved 62 patients after liver transplantation. Fibrosis was assessed in biopsy specimens using the METAVIR Score System (F0-F4). To identify clinically significant cutoff values of hepatic fibrosis (F ≥2, F ≥3, F = 4) for each method compared, a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used.

RESULTS

Area under ROC for the prediction of significant fibrosis (F ≥2), advanced fibrosis (F ≥3), and cirrhosis (F = 4) for the study group was 0.5938, 0.8952, and 0.9583 for dynamic elastography; 0.7295, 0.7072, and 0.8409 for the ELF test; and 0.4863, 0.8049, and 0.8723 for the FibroTest. The cutoff value for F ≥2 for dynamic elastography was 4.65 kPa; for the ELF test, 9.27; and for the FibroTest, 0.72.

CONCLUSIONS

The sensitivity and specificity of the tests studied, as compared with biopsy results, increase with increasing severity of hepatic fibrosis. The noninvasive diagnostic methods are of limited value in the diagnosis of early fibrosis stages. In the diagnostic assessment of hepatic fibrosis in its advanced stages, dynamic elastography can be used in conjunction with ELF test as a noninvasive alternative to liver biopsy.

Non-invasive diagnosis and follow-up in liver transplantation

The field of liver transplantation directly or indirectly embodies all liver diseases, in addition to specific ones related to organ rejection (cellular and humoral). The recommended non-invasive methods for determining the indication for liver transplantation are the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, and the alpha-foetoprotein score in case of hepatocellular carcinoma. Radiological methods are the cornerstones for the diagnosis of vascular and biliary complications after liver transplantation. The possible diseases of the liver graft after transplantation are multiple and often intertwined. Non-invasive diagnostic methods have been poorly evaluated in this context, apart from the recurrence of hepatitis C. Liver biopsy remains the gold standard for evaluating graft lesions in the majority of cases, especially graft rejection.

Long-term mortality risk stratification of liver transplant recipients: real-time application of deep learning algorithms on longitudinal data

BACKGROUND

Survival of liver transplant recipients beyond 1 year since transplantation is compromised by an increased risk of cancer, cardiovascular events, infection, and graft failure. Few clinical tools are available to identify patients at risk of these complications, which would flag them for screening tests and potentially life-saving interventions. In this retrospective analysis, we aimed to assess the ability of deep learning algorithms of longitudinal data from two prospective cohorts to predict complications resulting in death after liver transplantation over multiple timeframes, compared with logistic regression models.

METHODS

In this machine learning analysis, model development was done on a set of 42 146 liver transplant recipients (mean age 48·6 years [SD 17·3]; 17 196 [40·8%] women) from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) in the USA. Transferability of the model was further evaluated by fine-tuning on a dataset from the University Health Network (UHN) in Canada (n=3269; mean age 52·5 years [11·1]; 1079 [33·0%] women). The primary outcome was cause of death, as recorded in the databases, due to cardiovascular causes, infection, graft failure, or cancer, within 1 year and 5 years of each follow-up examination after transplantation. We compared the performance of four deep learning models against logistic regression, assessing performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

FINDINGS

In both datasets, deep learning models outperformed logistic regression, with the Transformer model achieving the highest AUROCs in both datasets (p<0·0001). The AUROC for the Transformer model across all outcomes in the SRTR dataset was 0·804 (99% CI 0·795-0·854) for 1-year predictions and 0·733 (0·729-0·769) for 5-year predictions. In the UHN dataset, the AUROC for the top-performing deep learning model was 0·807 (0·795-0·842) for 1-year predictions and 0·722 (0·705-0·764) for 5-year predictions. AUROCs ranged from 0·695 (0·680-0·713) for prediction of death from infection within 5 years to 0·859 (0·847-0·871) for prediction of death by graft failure within 1 year.

INTERPRETATION

Deep learning algorithms can incorporate longitudinal information to continuously predict long-term outcomes after liver transplantation, outperforming logistic regression models. Physicians could use these algorithms at routine follow-up visits to identify liver transplant recipients at risk for adverse outcomes and prevent these complications by modifying management based on ranked features.

FUNDING

Canadian Donation and Transplant Research Program, CIFAR AI Chairs Program.

Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Liver Transplantation is Associated with Episodes of Acute Rejections

Purpose

The impact of acute rejection (AR) after liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) on patient outcome is uncertain. This aim of this study is to investigate whether AR is associated with HCC relapse and overall survival.

Patients and Methods

Patients undergoing LT for HCC between 2001 and 2015 were retrospectively analyzed with regard to histopathological proven AR within the median time until recurrence. Cox’s regression analysis was conducted revealing risk factors for HCC recurrence.

Results

HCC recurred in 47 of 252 analyzed patients with a median time to recurrence of 20 months. Patients with AR (28.6%) had a significantly higher frequency of recurrence compared to patients without AR (13.0%, p=0.002). Multiple Cox regression analyses identified AR within 20 months to be an independent risk factor for HCC recurrence both as dichotomized (HR=2.91, 95%CI: 1.30–6.53; p=0.009) and as a continuous variable (HR=1.81, 95%CI: 1.28–2.54; p=0.001). HCC recurrence and AR were associated with higher grades of liver fibrosis one year after LT, when compared to patients without AR (p=0.019).

Conclusion

Our results demonstrate an association of AR with HCC recurrence after LT with implications for intervals of monitoring in tumor surveillance. Graft fibrosis and immune mechanisms are potentially related and causal interactions are worth further investigation.

Noninvasive markers of liver steatosis and fibrosis after liver transplantation - Where do we stand?

In the last two decades, advances in immunosuppressive regimens have led to fewer complications of acute rejection crisis and consequently improved short-term graft and patient survival. In parallel with this great success, long-term post-transplantation complications have become a focus of interest of doctors engaged in transplant medicine. Metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its individual components, namely, obesity, dyslipidemia, diabetes, and hypertension, often develop in the post-transplant setting and are associated with immuno-suppressive therapy. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is closely related to MetS and its individual components and is the liver manifestation of MetS. Therefore, it is not surprising that MetS and its individual components are associated with recurrent or "de novo" NAFLD after liver transplantation (LT). Fibrosis of the graft is one of the main determinants of overall morbidity and mortality in the post-LT period. In the assessment of post-LT steatosis and fibrosis, we have biochemical markers, imaging methods and liver biopsy. Because of the significant economic burden of post-LT steatosis and fibrosis and its potential consequences, there is an unmet need for noninvasive methods that are efficient and cost-effective. Biochemical scores can overestimate fibrosis and are not a good method for fibrosis evaluation in liver transplant recipients due to frequent post-LT thrombocytopenia. Transient elastography with controlled attenuation parameter is a promising noninvasive method for steatosis and fibrosis. In this review, we will specifically focus on the evaluation of steatosis and fibrosis in the post-LT setting in the context of de novo or recurrent NAFLD.

De-novo nonalcoholic fatty liver disease at 5 years after liver transplantation: prevalence and predictive factors

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a long-term complication after liver transplantation. Our aims were to determine de-novo-NAFLD at 5-year post-liver transplantation and identify predictive risk factors.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of de-novo-NAFLD at 5-year post-liver transplantation. NAFLD was defined as the radiological evidence of steatosis. Data from transplanted patients between November 2001 and May 2014 were collected. Noninvasive fibrosis scores were calculated. Predictors of de-novo NAFLD and survival were assessed by multivariate analyses and Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

A total of 252 liver transplantations were evaluated after applying exclusion criteria, (78.6% men) with 54.9 years old (SD ± 9.5). Prevalence of de-novo NAFLD at 5-year post-liver transplantation was 36.1%. Cardiovascular events were presented in 19.88% and 23.08% of non-NAFLD and NAFLD patients, (P = 0.58). On multivariate analysis, male sex (OR, 5.40; P = 0.001), obesity (OR, 3.72; P = 0.017), metabolic syndrome (OR, 4.69; P < 0.001) and de-novo diabetes (OR, 2.79; P = 0.018), were predictive. Significant fibrosis (≥F2) was presented in 58-86%. The mean survival in NAFLD and control group was 166.3 and 173.6 months, respectively (P = 0 0.50).

CONCLUSION

De-novo NAFLD at fifth-year post-liver transplantation is frequently and associated with cardiovascular comorbidity. Male sex, obesity, de-novo diabetes and metabolic syndrome were factors associated with de-novo NAFLD. A significant proportion of patients had advanced fibrosis. This group trends toward worse patients' survival.

Serum Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer as a biomarker of fibrosis in living donor liver transplant graft

INTRODUCTION

Non-invasive assessment of graft fibrosis is important in liver transplantation. Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) has been reported as a diagnostic marker for this purpose, and thus, this predictive ability of M2BPGi was assessed in this study.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, 236 patients who received living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) from August 1997 to March 2017 were enrolled. Among them, 94 biopsy patients were analyzed. Further, the predictive ability of fibrotic biopsy using M2BPGi, Fibroscan, and Fib-4 index was compared.

RESULTS

Of 94 LDLT patients (53 men, 41 women), the median ages of recipients and donors were 57.5 and 33.0 years, respectively. The median M2BPGi values in patients with F0 (n = 11), F1 (n = 38), F2 (n = 35), and F3/4 (n = 10) were 0.680, 0.760, 1.240, and 4.110 COI, respectively. There were significant correlations between the fibrotic stage and M2BPGi levels (Kruskal-Wallis test, P < .0001). The area under the ROC curve for the diagnosis of F ≥ 2 in M2BPGi was 0.778, which was superior to Fibroscan (0.701) and Fib-4 index (0.639).

CONCLUSION

M2BPGi is an accurate, non-invasive detection method for significant fibrosis after LDLT.

The long-term outcomes of deceased-donor liver transplantation for primary biliary cirrhosis: a two-center study in China

Background & Aims

Factors that influence the outcomes after deceased-donor liver transplantation (DDLT) for primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) are not well known. We aimed to clarify these effects on the outcomes after DDLT.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed patients with PBC who underwent DDLT from March 2006 to July 2018 at the organ transplantation center of the First Hospital of Jilin University and the First Central Hospital of Tianjin. Changes in liver function were assessed posttransplantation. Recurrence, survival rate, and complications were recorded at follow-up. The effect of liver transplantation on survival and recurrence was evaluated using univariate and/or multivariate Cox regression analyses.

Results

In total, 69 patients with PBC undergoing DDLT were included in this study. At 4 weeks posttransplant, all liver function tests were normal. During a median follow-up time of 32 months, 5-year overall survival and recurrence rates were estimated as 95.1% and 21.8%, respectively. A recipient aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) greater than 2 was negatively associated with survival (P = 0.0018). Multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that age younger than 48 years was an independent risk factor for recurrent PBC in recipients undergoing liver transplantation (hazard ratio 0.028, 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.71, P = 0.03). Posttransplant infections (62%) and biliary tract complications (26%) were the most common complications.

Conclusion

Liver transplantation is an effective treatment for patients with PBC. Liver function normalizes by 4 weeks posttransplant. Although posttransplant survival rate is high, recurrence is possible. To some extent, survival rate and recurrence rate can be predicted by APRI and age, respectively.

Inference about time-dependent prognostic accuracy measures in the presence of competing risks

BACKGROUND

Evaluating a candidate marker or developing a model for predicting risk of future conditions is one of the major goals in medicine. However, model development and assessment for a time-to-event outcome may be complicated in the presence of competing risks. In this manuscript, we propose a local and a global estimators of cause-specific AUC for right-censored survival times in the presence of competing risks.

METHODS

The local estimator - cause-specific weighted mean rank (cWMR) - is a local average of time-specific observed cause-specific AUCs within a neighborhood of given time t. The global estimator - cause-specific fractional polynomials (cFPL) - is based on modelling the cause-specific AUC as a function of t through fractional polynomials.

RESULTS

We investigated the performance of the proposed cWMR and cFPL estimators through simulation studies and real-life data analysis. The estimators perform well in small samples, have minimal bias and appropriate coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

The local estimator cWMR and the global estimator cFPL will provide computationally efficient options for assessing the prognostic accuracy of markers for time-to-event outcome in the presence of competing risks in many practical settings.

Diagnostic performance of non-invasive tests for evaluation of hepatic graft fibrosis in pediatric liver transplantation: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Hepatic graft fibrosis is a common histologic finding of pediatric liver transplant (LT) that might affect long-term graft outcome. However, its diagnosis and staging require an invasive liver biopsy.

AIM

To review the published literature on the diagnostic accuracy of elastography and serum-based fibrosis markers for assessing hepatic graft fibrosis in pediatric LT recipients.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted using a systematic search of published literature in PubMed (MEDLINE), EMBASE, SCOPUS, and Cochrane Library between 2002 and 2019. We included all English conference abstracts or full-text articles that examined the diagnostic accuracy of the non-invasive test(s) to assess hepatic fibrosis in LT children, using liver biopsy as the reference test.

RESULTS

Eight studies were included, of which 6 examined transient elastography (TE), one investigated acoustic radiation force impulse elastography, and 5 examined serum-based fibrosis markers (AST/ALT ratio, AST-to-platelet ratio index, FibroTest, enhanced liver fibrosis test). TE reportedly had a good AUROC (range: 0.82-0.92) to distinguish children with hepatic graft fibrosis (≥F1) from those with no fibrosis. However, there was considerable overlap of liver stiffness cutoffs in the mild to significant fibrosis groups (≥F1 and ≥F2). Current serum-based fibrosis markers reportedly had an unsatisfactory diagnostic accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

TE in LT children has similar diagnostic value and limitations as in the non-transplant setting. Prospective studies are warranted to validate an optimal liver stiffness cutoff for predicting significant hepatic graft fibrosis (≥F2) and to determine if a meaningful change in liver stiffness from baseline could identify patients at risk for fibrosis progression.

Non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis and prognosis: an update on serum and elastography markers

Non-invasive assessment of fibrosis is increasingly utilized in clinical practice to diagnose hepatic fibrosis. Non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis relies on biologic and/or physical properties to assess tissue fibrosis. Serum markers estimate fibrosis by incorporating markers reflecting hepatic function (indirect markers) and/or markers measuring extracellular matrix degradation/fibrogenesis (direct markers). Radiology based techniques relay the mechanical properties and stiffness of a tissue, with increased stiffness associated with more advanced fibrosis. Areas covered: In this comprehensive review, the recent literature discussing serum markers and elastography-based techniques will be covered. These modalities are also explored in the setting of various liver diseases. Expert opinion: The etiology of liver disease and clinical context should be taken into consideration when non-invasive markers are incorporated in clinical practice. Non-invasive assessment of fibrosis has been most extensively utilized in hepatitis C, followed by hepatitis B and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, but its role remains less developed in other etiologies of liver disease such as alcohol-associated liver disease and autoimmune liver disease. The role of non-invasive markers in predicting progression or regression of fibrosis, development of liver-related events and survival needs to be further explored.

Predictors of De Novo Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease After Liver Transplantation and Associated Fibrosis

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can occur de novo in patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT) for indications other than NAFLD, and it has been increasingly recognized as a complication in the post-LT setting. This study aims to better characterize de novo NAFLD after LT by identifying risk factors for its development, describing incidence and extent of fibrosis, assessing the diagnostic utility of noninvasive serum fibrosis algorithms, and comparing survival to those without NAFLD. This was a retrospective single-center analysis of de novo NAFLD in a post-LT cohort. Those whose primary indication for LT was nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) were excluded. Risk factors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses. De novo NAFLD and fibrosis were assessed on posttransplant liver biopsies, and noninvasive fibrosis scores were calculated from concomitant blood tests. After applying the exclusion criteria, 430 for-cause post-LT biopsies were evaluated; 33.3% (n = 143) had evidence of de novo steatosis and/or NASH at a median of 3.0 years after transplant. On multivariate analysis, body mass index (BMI; odds ratio [OR], 1.12; P < 0.001), diabetes mellitus (OR, 3.01; P = 0.002), hepatitis C virus (OR, 4.61; P < 0.001), weight gain (OR, 1.03; P = 0.007), and sirolimus use (OR, 3.11; P = 0.02) were predictive of de novo NAFLD after LT. Significant fibrosis (≥F2) was present in almost 40% of the cohort. Noninvasive serum fibrosis scores were not useful diagnostic tests. There was no significant difference in the short-term or longterm survival of patients who developed de novo NAFLD. In conclusion, diabetes, BMI, weight gain after LT, and sirolimus-based immunosuppression, in keeping with insulin resistance, were the only modifiable factors associated with development of de novo NAFLD. A significant proportion of patients with de novo NAFLD had fibrosis and given the limited utility of noninvasive serum fibrosis algorithms, alternative noninvasive tools are required to screen for fibrosis in this population. There was no significant difference in the short-term or longterm survival of patients who developed de novo NAFLD.

Oval Cells Contribute to Fibrogenesis of Marginal Liver Grafts under Stepwise Regulation of Aldose Reductase and Notch Signaling

Background and Aims: Expanded donor criteria poses increased risk for late phase complications such as fibrosis that lead to graft dysfunction in liver transplantation. There remains a need to elucidate the precise mechanisms of post-transplant liver damage in order to improve the long-term outcomes of marginal liver grafts. In this study, we aimed to examine the role of oval cells in fibrogenic development of marginal liver grafts and explore the underlying mechanisms.

Methods: Using an orthotopic rat liver transplantation model and human post-transplant liver biopsy tissues, the dynamics of oval cells in marginal liver grafts was evaluated by the platform integrating immuno-labeling techniques and ultrastructure examination. Underlying mechanisms were further explored in oval cells and an Aldose reductase (AR) knockout mouse model simulating marginal graft injury.

Results: We demonstrated that activation of aldose reductase initiated oval cell proliferation in small-for-size fatty grafts during ductular reaction at the early phase after transplantation. These proliferative oval cells subsequently showed prevailing biliary differentiation and exhibited features of mesenchymal transition including dynamically co-expressing epithelial and mesenchymal markers, developing microstructures for extra-cellular matrix degradation (podosomes) or cell migration (filopodia and blebs), and acquiring the capacity in collagen production. Mechanistic studies further indicated that transition of oval cell-derived biliary cells toward mesenchymal phenotype ensued fibrogenesis in marginal grafts under the regulation of notch signaling pathway.

Conclusions: Oval cell activation and their subsequent lineage commitment contribute to post-transplant fibrogenesis of small-for-size fatty liver grafts. Interventions targeting oval cell dynamics may serve as potential strategies to refine current clinical management.

Performance of transient elastography and serum fibrosis biomarkers for non-invasive evaluation of recurrent fibrosis after liver transplantation: A meta-analysis

Recurrent fibrosis after liver transplantation (LT) impacts on long-term graft and patient survival. We performed a meta-analysis to compare the accuracy of non-invasive methods to diagnose significant recurrent fibrosis (stage F2-F4) following LT. Studies comparing serum fibrosis biomarkers, namely AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis score 4 (FIB-4), or transient elastography (TE) with liver biopsy in LT recipients were systematically identified through electronic databases. In the meta-analysis, we calculated the weighted pooled odds ratio and used a fixed effect model, as there was no significant heterogeneity between studies. Eight studies were included for APRI, four for FIB-4, and twelve for TE. The mean prevalence of significant liver fibrosis was 37.4%. The summary odds ratio was significantly higher for TE (21.17, 95% CI confidence interval 14.10–31.77, p = 1X10^-30) as compared to APRI (9.02, 95% CI 5.79–14.07; p = 1X10^-30) and FIB-4 (7.08, 95% CI 4.00–12.55; p = 1.93X10^-11). In conclusion, TE performs best to diagnose recurrent fibrosis in LT recipients. APRI and FIB-4 can be used as an estimate of significant fibrosis at centres where TE is not available. Longitudinal assessment of fibrosis by means of these non-invasive tests may reduce the need for liver biopsy.