Predictors of 61 unplanned readmission cases in microvascular free tissue transfer patients: Multi-institutional analysis of 774 patients

Predicting reoperation and readmission for head and neck free flap patients using machine learning

BACKGROUND

To develop machine learning (ML) models predicting unplanned readmission and reoperation among patients undergoing free flap reconstruction for head and neck (HN) surgery.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the 2012-2019 NSQIP database. eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) was used to develop ML models predicting 30-day readmission and reoperation based on demographic and perioperative factors. Models were validated using 2019 data and evaluated.

RESULTS

Four-hundred and sixty-six (10.7%) of 4333 included patients were readmitted within 30 days of initial surgery. The ML model demonstrated 82% accuracy, 63% sensitivity, 85% specificity, and AUC of 0.78. Nine-hundred and four (18.3%) of 4931 patients underwent reoperation within 30 days of index surgery. The ML model demonstrated 62% accuracy, 51% sensitivity, 64% specificity, and AUC of 0.58.

CONCLUSION

XGBoost was used to predict 30-day readmission and reoperation for HN free flap patients. Findings may be used to assist clinicians and patients in shared decision-making and improve data collection in future database iterations.

The Utility of Comorbidity Indices in Assessing Head and Neck Surgery Outcomes: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the utility of comorbidity index (CI) scores in predicting outcomes in head and neck surgery (HNS). The CIs evaluated were the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI), Kaplan-Feinstein Index (KFI), American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS), Adult Comorbidity Evaluation-27 (ACE-27), National Cancer Institute Comorbidity Index (NCI-CI), and the Washington University Head and Neck Comorbidity Index (WUHNCI).

METHODS

We report a systematic review according to the 2009 Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Electronic databases (PubMed, Cochrane, and Embase) and manual search of bibliographies identified manuscripts addressing how CI scores related to HNS outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 116 studies associated CI scores with HNS outcomes. CIs were represented in the literature as follows: ASA-PS (70/116), CCI (39/116), ACE-27 (24/116), KFI (7/116), NCI-CI (3/116), ECI (2/116), and WUHNCI (1/116). The most frequently cited justification for calculating each CI (if provided) was: CCI for its validation in other studies, ACE-27 for its utility in cancer patients, and ECI for its comprehensive design. In general, the CCI and ACE-27 were predictive of mortality in HNS. The ECI was most consistent in predicting >1-year mortality. The ACE-27 and KFI were most consistent in predicting medical complications.

CONCLUSION

Despite inconsistencies in the literature, CIs provide insights into the impact of comorbidities on outcomes in HNS. These scores should be employed as an adjunct in the preoperative assessment of HNS patients. Comparative studies are needed to identify indices that are most reliable in predicting HNS outcomes.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

NA Laryngoscope, 2021.

High-Risk Plastic Surgery: An Analysis of 108,303 Cases From the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP)

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of large-scale data that examine complications in plastic surgery. A description of baseline rates and patient outcomes allows better understanding of ways to improve patient care and cost-savings for health systems. Herein, we determine the most frequent complications in plastic surgery, identify procedures with high complication rates, and examine predictive risk factors.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of the 2012 to 2016 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program plastic surgery data set was conducted. Complication rates were calculated for the entire cohort and each procedure therein. Microsurgical procedures were analyzed as a subgroup, where multivariate logistic regression models determined the risk factors for surgical site infection (SSI) and related reoperation.

RESULTS

We identified 108 303 patients undergoing a plastic surgery procedure of which 6 264 (5.78%) experienced ≥1 complication. The outcome with the highest incidence was related reoperation (3.31%), followed by SSI (3.11%). Microsurgical cases comprised 6 148 (5.68%) of all cases, and 1211 (19.33%) experienced ≥1 complication. Similar to the entire cohort, the related reoperation (12.83%) and SSI (5.66%) were common complications. Increased operative time was a common independent risk factor predictive of a related reoperation or development of an SSI (P < 001). Of all microsurgeries, 23.3% had an operative time larger than 10 hours which lead to faster increase in reoperation likelihood.

CONCLUSIONS

The complication rate in plastic surgery remains relatively low but is significantly increased for microsurgery. Increased operative time is a common risk factor. Two-team approaches and staged operations could be explored, as a large portion of microsurgeries are vulnerable to increased complications.

Scoping Review of the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program in Plastic Surgery Research

Background

The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) is a robust, high-quality surgical outcomes database that measures risk-adjusted 30-day outcomes of surgical interventions. The purpose of this scoping review is to describe how the NSQIP is being used in plastic surgery research.

Methods

A comprehensive electronic literature search was completed in PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, and CINAHL. Two reviewers independently reviewed articles to determine their relevance using predefined inclusion criteria. Articles were included if they utilized NSQIP data to conduct research in a domain of plastic surgery or analyzed surgical procedures completed by plastic surgeons. Extracted information included the domain of plastic surgery, country of origin, journal, and year of publication.

Results

A total of 106 articles met the inclusion criteria. The most common domain of plastic surgery was breast reconstruction representing 35% of the articles. Of the 106 articles, 95% were published within the last 5 years. The Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery journal published most of the (59%) NSQIP-related articles. All of the studies were retrospective. Of note, there were no articles on burns and only one study on trauma as the domain of plastic surgery.

Conclusion

This scoping review describes how NSQIP data are being used to analyze plastic surgery interventions and outcomes in order to guide quality improvement in 106 articles. It demonstrates the utility of NSQIP in the literature, however also identifies some limitations of the program as it applies to plastic surgery.

Predictors of Readmissions and Reoperations Related to Venous Thromboembolic Events After Spine Surgery: A Single-Institution Experience with 6869 Patients

BACKGROUND

Readmission and reoperation are used as hospital and surgeon quality metrics. Venous thromboembolic (VTE) events, including deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism (PE), are a major cause of readmission, morbidity, and mortality after spine surgery. Specific procedural, perioperative, and patient characteristics may be associated with these outcomes.

METHODS

We retrospectively examined records from 6869 consecutive spine surgeries at our institution. We collected data on patient demographics, surgery, hospital course, and 30-day rates of VTE, readmission, reoperation, and epidural hematoma. Stepwise multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of each outcome.

RESULTS

Factors associated with VTE within 30 days of surgery include a history of VTE (odds ratio [OR] 3.92 [confidence interval 1.83-8.36], P < 0.001), estimated blood loss (EBL; OR 1.017 [1.005-1.029], P = 0.004), fracture (OR 5.42 [2.09-14.05], P = 0.001), history of PE (OR 4.04 [1.22-13.42], P = 0.023), and transfusion (OR 2.26 [1.07-4.77], P = 0.033). Factors associated with readmission were a history of PE (OR 3.27 [1.07-9.97], P = 0.038), PE (OR 8.07 [2.26-28.8], P = 0.001), transfusion (OR 2.54 [1.55-4.17], P < 0.001), comorbid disease burden (OR 1.35 [1.01-1.80], P = 0.041), and tumor surgery (OR 2.84 [1.32-6.10], P = 0.007). Factors associated with reoperation were EBL (OR 1.024 [1.006-1.042], P = 0.008), transfusion (OR 3.86 [1.38-10.79], P = 0.01), and PE (OR 6.05 [1.03-35.62], P = 0.046). Transfusion was associated with epidural hematoma within 30 days (OR 7.38 [1.37-39.83], P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Transfusion and EBL are associated with numerous negative outcomes. Transfusion is an independent predictor of VTE, readmission, reoperation, and epidural hematoma requiring evacuation. Specific pathologies were associated with specific negative outcomes.

Association of High-Volume Surgeons Working in High-Volume Hospitals with Cost of Free Flap Surgeries

Background

We examined the associations of surgeon and hospital volume with total cost, length of stay (LOS), and cost per day for free tissue transfer (FTT) surgeries. Evidence demonstrates a higher likelihood of success for FTT in higher volume hospitals. Little, however, is known about volume-outcome associations for surgical costs and LOS. We hypothesized that higher provider volume is associated with lower cost and shorter LOS.

Methods

Using Taiwan's national data (2001-2012), we conducted a retrospective cohort study of all adults 18-64 years of age who underwent FTT during the study period. We used hierarchical regression modeling for our analyses. Our 3 outcome variables were total cost of FTT surgery, LOS in hospital, and cost per day.

Results

Except for functional muscle flap, in which LOS was 12 days shorter in high-volume compared with low-volume hospitals (P = 0.017), no association between hospital volume and LOS was found. Contrary to our hypothesis, our results for all FTT cases demonstrate positive associations of medium-volume hospitals (OR = 1.31; CI, 1.11-1.55) and high-volume surgeons (OR = 1.16; CI,1.03-1.32) with total cost and cost per day, respectively. The interactions of hospital volume and surgeon volume show that in medium- and high-volume hospitals, surgeons with the highest volume had the lowest predicted cost per day among hospitals in that category; but all differences in cost were small.

Conclusions

There were no substantial variations based on different hospital or surgeon volume in LOS, total cost, or cost per day for FTT operations performed in Taiwan.

Head and neck microvascular free flap reconstruction: An analysis of unplanned readmissions

OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS

Unplanned readmissions within 30 days of surgery represent a significant marker for healthcare quality. Small institutional studies have described rates of readmission for patients undergoing head and neck free flap reconstruction. However, large, multi-institutional analyses have not previously been described.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective study of cases from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database.

METHODS

Patients who underwent free flap reconstruction of the head and neck from 2011 to 2013 were identified. Univariate and multivariate analyses of unplanned readmission based on patient, laboratory, and hospital course characteristics were conducted.

RESULTS

In total, 1,238 patients who underwent head and neck microvascular free flap reconstruction were included within the database, of which 1,204 patients had information pertaining to readmission. Overall 30-day readmission rate was 9.6%. A multivariate analysis of preoperative variables demonstrated that leukocytosis, diabetes mellitus, and hyponatremia were all associated with increased rates of readmission (odds ratio 2.224, 1.843, and 1.7423, respectively). A similar analysis of postoperative variables demonstrated that wound-related complications (surgical site infections and wound disruption), perioperative blood transfusion, and sepsis were associated with an increased rate of readmission.

CONCLUSION

In patients with microvascular free flap reconstruction of the head and neck, the 30-day readmission rate was 9.6%. Preoperative diabetes mellitus, hyponatremia, and leukocytosis were associated with an increased rate of 30-day readmissions. Postoperative complications, particularly wound infections, perioperative blood transfusions, and sepsis, were found to be significant contributors to readmission.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

4. Laryngoscope, 2016 127:325-330, 2017.

Assessing safety and outcomes in outpatient versus inpatient thyroidectomy using the NSQIP: a propensity score matched analysis of 16,370 patients

BACKGROUND

With increasing economic healthcare constraints and an evolving understanding of patient selection criteria and patient safety, outpatient thyroidectomy is now more frequently employed. However, robust statistical analyses evaluating outcomes and safety after outpatient thyroidectomy with matched comparisons to inpatient cohorts are lacking.

METHODS

The 2011-2012 NSQIP datasets were queried to identify all patients undergoing thyroidectomy. Inpatient and outpatient procedures cohorts were matched 1:1 using propensity score analysis to assess outcomes. Outcomes of interest included surgical and medical complications, reoperation, mortality, and readmission. Univariate and multivariate analyses were utilized to identify predictors of these events. Relative risk ratios were calculated for adverse events between inpatient and outpatient cohorts.

RESULTS

In total, 21,508 patients were identified to have undergone a thyroidectomy in 2011-2012. Inpatients and outpatients were matched 1:1 with respect to preoperative and operative characteristics, leaving 8,185 patients in each treatment arm. After matching, overall 30-day morbidity was rare with only 250 patients (1.53 %) experiencing any perioperative morbidity. 476 patients (2.91 %) were readmitted within 30-days of the operation. Both pre- and post-matching, inpatient thyroidectomy was associated with increased risks of readmission, reoperation, and any complication.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on this comprehensive population-based study, outpatient thyroidectomy appears to be at least as safe as inpatient thyroidectomy. However, there are still differences in outcomes between inpatient and outpatient cohorts, despite statistical matching of preoperative and intraoperative variables. Future research needs to be spent identifying these as-of-yet unknown risk factors to resolve this discrepancy.