Identifying Postural Instability in Children with Cerebral Palsy Using a Predictive Model: A Longitudinal Multicenter Study

Insufficient postural control and trunk instability are serious concerns in children with cerebral palsy (CP). We implemented a predictive model to identify factors associated with postural impairments such as spastic or hypotonic truncal tone (TT) in children with CP. We conducted a longitudinal, double-blinded, multicenter, descriptive study of 102 teenagers with CP with cognitive impairment and severe motor disorders with and without truncal tone impairments treated in two specialized hospitals (60 inpatients and 42 outpatients; 60 males, mean age 16.5 ± 1.2 years, range 12 to 18 yrs). Clinical and functional data were collected between 2006 and 2021. TT-PredictMed, a multiple logistic regression prediction model, was developed to identify factors associated with hypotonic or spastic TT following the guidelines of "Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis". Predictors of hypotonic TT were hip dysplasia (p = 0.01), type of etiology (postnatal > perinatal > prenatal causes; p = 0.05), male gender, and poor manual (p = 0.01) and gross motor function (p = 0.05). Predictors of spastic TT were neuromuscular scoliosis (p = 0.03), type of etiology (prenatal > perinatal > postnatal causes; p < 0.001), spasticity (quadri/triplegia > diplegia > hemiplegia; p = 0.05), presence of dystonia (p = 0.001), and epilepsy (refractory > controlled, p = 0.009). The predictive model's average accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity reached 82%. The model's accuracy aligns with recent studies on applying machine learning models in the clinical field.

Mortality after spinal fusion in children with cerebral palsy and cerebral-palsy-like conditions: A 30-year follow-up study

AIM

To report survival probability of a large cohort of children with cerebral palsy (CP) after spinal fusion.

METHOD

All children with CP who had spinal fusion between 1988 and 2018 at the reporting facility were reviewed for survival. Death records of the institutional CP database, institutional electronic medical records, publicly available obituaries, and the National Death Index through the US Centers for Disease Control were searched. Survival probabilities with different surgical eras, comorbidities, ages, and curve severities were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves.

RESULTS

A total of 787 children (402 females, 385 males) had spinal fusion at a mean age of 14 years 1 month (standard deviation 3 years 2 months). The 30-year estimated survival was approximately 30%. Survival decreased for children who had spinal fusion at younger ages, longer postoperative hospital stays, longer postoperative intensive care unit stays, gastrostomy tubes, and pulmonary comorbidities.

INTERPRETATION

Children with CP who required spinal fusions had reduced long-term survival compared with an age-matched typically developing cohort; however, a substantial number survived 20 to 30 years after the surgery. This study had no comparison group of children with CP scoliosis; therefore, we do not know whether correction of scoliosis affected their survival.

Prediction Model for Identifying Computational Phenotypes of Children with Cerebral Palsy Needing Neurotoxin Treatments

Factors associated with neurotoxin treatments in children with cerebral palsy (CP) are poorly studied. We developed and externally validated a prediction model to identify the prognostic phenotype of children with CP who require neurotoxin injections. We conducted a longitudinal, international, multicenter, double-blind descriptive study of 165 children with CP (mean age 16.5 ± 1.2 years, range 12−18 years) with and without neurotoxin treatments. We collected functional and clinical data from 2005 to 2020, entered them into the BTX-PredictMed machine-learning model, and followed the guidelines, “Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis”. In the univariate analysis, neuromuscular scoliosis (p = 0.0014), equines foot (p < 0.001) and type of etiology (prenatal > peri/postnatal causes, p = 0.05) were linked with neurotoxin treatments. In the multivariate analysis, upper limbs (p < 0.001) and trunk muscle tone disorders (p = 0.02), the presence of spasticity (p = 0.01), dystonia (p = 0.004), and hip dysplasia (p = 0.005) were strongly associated with neurotoxin injections; and the average accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity was 75%. These results have helped us identify, with good accuracy, the clinical features of prognostic phenotypes of subjects likely to require neurotoxin injections.

Feeding tube use is associated with severe scoliosis in patients with cerebral palsy and limited ambulatory ability

PURPOSE

Cerebral palsy (CP) is the most common motor disorder in childhood. Scoliosis is a common complication of CP that can reach clinically severe levels, but predictors for scoliosis in CP are not well understood. Some variables identified in the literature involve the severity of the brain injury and the presence of hip deformity. We aimed to identify associations with developing severe scoliosis in a prospective cohort of patients with cerebral palsy at higher risk for severe curve progression.

METHODS

This study reviewed a prospectively collected database at a tertiary children's hospital. We evaluated a panel of potential associations with severe scoliosis-including age, sex, Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) class, history of hip surgery, epilepsy, and feeding tube presence-in a population of children with limited ambulatory ability defined as GMFCS level IV or V CP. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression with stepwise selection was used for analysis.

RESULTS

Descriptive analysis showed that female sex, higher GMFCS class, history of hip surgery, non-upright seating, pelvic obliquity, presence of epilepsy, and presence of a feeding tube were associated with an increased risk for scoliosis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the presence of a feeding tube was associated with severe scoliosis even when controlling for GMFCS and age.

CONCLUSIONS

Feeding tube use may stratify risk for severe scoliosis progression in patients with GMFCS IV or V CP.

Predicting osteoarthritis in adults using statistical data mining and machine learning

Background:

Osteoarthritis (OA) has traditionally been considered a disease of older adults (⩾65 years old), but it may appear in younger adults. However, the risk factors for OA in younger adults need to be further evaluated.

Objectives:

To develop a prediction model for identifying risk factors of OA in subjects aged 20–50 years and compare the performance of different machine learning models.

Methods:

We included data from 52,512 participants of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; of those, we analyzed only subjects aged 20–50 years (n = 19,133), with or without OA. The supervised machine learning model ‘Deep PredictMed’ based on logistic regression, deep neural network (DNN), and support vector machine was used for identifying demographic and personal characteristics that are associated with OA. Finally, we compared the performance of the different models.

Results:

Being a female (p < 0.001), older age (p < 0.001), a smoker (p < 0.001), higher body mass index (p < 0.001), high blood pressure (p < 0.001), race/ethnicity (lowest risk among Mexican Americans, p = 0.01), and physical and mental limitations (p < 0.001) were associated with having OA. Best predictive performance yielded a 75% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

Conclusion:

Sex (female), age (older), smoking (yes), body mass index (higher), blood pressure (high), race/ethnicity, and physical and mental limitations are risk factors for having OA in adults aged 20–50 years. The best predictive performance was achieved using DNN algorithms.

PredictMed: A Machine Learning Model for Identifying Risk Factors of Neuromuscular Hip Dysplasia: A Multicenter Descriptive Study

Neuromuscular hip dysplasia (NHD) is a common and severe problem in patients with cerebral palsy (CP). Previous studies have so far identified only spasticity (SP) and high levels of Gross Motor Function Classification System as factors associated with NHD. The aim of this study is to develop a machine learning model to identify additional risk factors of NHD. This was a cross-sectional multicenter descriptive study of 102 teenagers with CP (60 males, 42 females; 60 inpatients, 42 outpatients; mean age 16.5 ± 1.2 years, range 12-18 years). Data on etiology, diagnosis, SP, epilepsy (E), clinical history, and functional assessments were collected between 2007 and 2017. Hip dysplasia was defined as femoral head lateral migration percentage > 33% on pelvic radiogram. A logistic regression-prediction model named PredictMed was developed to identify risk factors of NHD. Twenty-eight (27%) teenagers with CP had NHD, of which 18 (67%) had dislocated hips. Logistic regression model identified poor walking abilities (p < 0.001; odds ratio [OR] infinity; 95% confidence interval [CI] infinity), scoliosis (p = 0.01; OR 3.22; 95% CI 1.30-7.92), trunk muscles' tone disorder (p = 0.002; OR 4.81; 95% CI 1.75-13.25), SP (p = 0.006; OR 6.6; 95% CI 1.46-30.23), poor motor function (p = 0.02; OR 5.5; 95% CI 1.2-25.2), and E (p = 0.03; OR 2.6; standard error 0.44) as risk factors of NHD. The accuracy of the model was 77%. PredictMed identified trunk muscles' tone disorder, severe scoliosis, E, and SP as risk factors of NHD in teenagers with CP.

Clinical predictive model of lumbar curve Cobb angle below selective fusion for thoracic adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a longitudinal multicenter descriptive study

PURPOSE

To implement a clinically applicable, predictive model for the lumbar Cobb angle below a selective thoracic fusion in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

METHODS

A series of 146 adolescents with Lenke 1 or 2 idiopathic scoliosis, surgically treated with posterior selective fusion, and minimum follow-up of 5 years (average 7) was analyzed. The cohort was divided in 2 groups: if lumbar Cobb angle at last follow-up was, respectively, ≥ or < 10°. A logistic regression-based prediction model (PredictMed) was implemented to identify variables associated with the group ≥ 10°. The guidelines of the TRIPOD statement were followed.

RESULTS

Mean Cobb angle of thoracic main curve was 56° preoperatively and 25° at last follow-up. Mean lumbar Cobb angle was 33° (20; 59) preoperatively and 11° (0; 35) at last follow-up. 53 patients were in group ≥ 10°. The 2 groups had similar demographics, flexibility of both main and lumbar curves, and magnitude of the preoperative main curve, p > 0.1. From univariate analysis, mean magnitude of preoperative lumbar curves (35° vs. 30°), mean correction of main curve (65% vs. 58%), mean ratio of main curve/distal curve (1.9 vs. 1.6) and distribution of lumbar modifiers were statistically different between groups (p < 0.05). PredictMed identified the following variables significantly associated with the group ≥ 10°: main curve % correction at last follow-up (p = 0.01) and distal curve angle (p = 0.04) with a prediction accuracy of 71%.

CONCLUSION

The main modifiable factor influencing uninstrumented lumbar curve was the correction of main curve. The clinical model PredictMed showed an accuracy of 71% in prediction of lumbar Cobb angle ≥ 10° at last follow-up.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE IV

Longitudinal comparative study.

Predicting Hip Dysplasia in Teenagers with Cerebral Palsy in order to Optimize Prevention and Rehabilitation. A Longitudinal Descriptive Study

OBJECTIVE

To develop a predictive model of neuromuscular hip dysplasia (NHD) in teenagers with cerebral palsy (CP) to optimize rehabilitation.

DESIGN

A longitudinal, multicenter, double-blinded, descriptive study of one hundred and two teenagers with CP (age 16.5 ± 1.2 years, range 12-18 years). Data on etiology, diagnosis, spasticity, epilepsy, clinical history, and functional assessments were collected from 2005 to 2017 and entered in the prediction model "PredictMed."

RESULTS

Poor walking abilities [p < .001; Odd Ratio (OR) Infinity], scoliosis (p 0.01; OR 3.22), trunk muscles' tone disorder (p 0.002; OR 4.81), spasticity (p 0.006; OR 6.6), poor motor function (p 0.02; OR 5.5), and epilepsy (p 0.03; OR 2.6) were predictors of NHD development. The accuracy of the model was 77%.

CONCLUSION

Trunk muscles' tone disorder, severe scoliosis, epilepsy, and spasticity were predictors of NHD in teenagers with CP. Based on the results we have developed appropriate preventative rehabilitation interventions.

Endoscopic management of enteral tubes in adult patients - Part 1: Definitions and indications. European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) Guideline

ESGE recommends considering the following indications for enteral tube insertion: (i) clinical conditions that make oral intake impossible (neurological conditions, obstructive causes); (ii) acute and/or chronic diseases that result in a catabolic state where oral intake becomes insufficient; and (iii) chronic small-bowel obstruction requiring a decompression gastrostomy.Strong recommendation, low quality evidence.ESGE recommends the use of temporary feeding tubes placed through a natural orifice (either nostril) in patients expected to require enteral nutrition (EN) for less than 4 weeks. If it is anticipated that EN will be required for more than 4 weeks, percutaneous access should be considered, depending on the clinical setting.Strong recommendation, low quality evidence.ESGE recommends the gastric route as the primary option in patients in need of EN support. Only in patients with altered/unfavorable gastric anatomy (e. g. after previous surgery), impaired gastric emptying, intolerance to gastric feeding, or with a high risk of aspiration, should the jejunal route be chosen.Strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence.ESGE suggests that recent gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding due to peptic ulcer disease with risk of rebleeding should be considered to be a relative contraindication to percutaneous enteral access procedures, as should hemodynamic or respiratory instability.Weak recommendation, low quality evidence.ESGE suggests that the presence of ascites and ventriculoperitoneal shunts should be considered to be additional risk factors for infection and, therefore, further preventive precautions must be taken in these cases.Weak recommendation, low quality evidence.ESGE recommends that percutaneous tube placement (percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy [PEG], percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy with jejunal extension [PEG-J], or direct percutaneous endoscopic jejunostomy [D-PEJ]) should be considered to be a procedure with high hemorrhagic risk, and that in order to reduce this risk, specific guidelines for antiplatelet or anticoagulant use should be followed strictly.Strong recommendation, low quality evidence.ESGE recommends refraining from PEG placement in patients with advanced dementia.Strong recommendation, low quality evidence.ESGE recommends refraining from PEG placement in patients with a life expectancy shorter than 30 days.Strong recommendation, low quality evidence*.

Top-ten tips for managing nutritional issues and gastrointestinal symptoms in children with neurological impairment

The prevalence of children with neurological impairment (NI) presenting feeding difficulties and gastrointestinal symptoms is rising. The most recent guidelines recommend early nutritional assessment and intervention in order to prevent undernutrition and growth failure, along with the proper diagnosis and treatment of some frequent gastrointestinal symptoms, such as gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and constipation, which can further worsen the feeding process and nutritional status. Nonetheless, the nutritional issues and growth deficits of children with NI are often considered to be of low priority or under recognised by healthcare providers. The present article proposes ten top tips that highlight the major points along the nutritional management pathway of NI children. The implementation of these tips in all healthcare settings could potentially improve patient outcomes and reduce morbidity and mortality.