A novel decision model to predict the impact of weight management interventions: The Core Obesity Model

Cost-effectiveness of weight-management pharmacotherapies in Canada: a societal perspective

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of weight-management pharmacotherapies approved by Canada Health, i.e., orlistat, naltrexone 32 mg/bupropion 360 mg (NB-32), liraglutide 3.0 mg and semaglutide 2.4 mg as compared to the current standard of care (SoC).

METHODS

Analyses were conducted using a cohort with a mean starting age 50 years, body mass index (BMI) 37.5 kg/m2, and 27.6% having type 2 diabetes. Using treatment-specific changes in surrogate endpoints from the STEP trials (BMI, glycemic, blood pressure, lipids), besides a network meta-analysis, the occurrence of weight-related complications, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were projected over lifetime.

RESULTS

From a societal perspective, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of CAD 50 000 per QALY, semaglutide 2.4 mg was the most cost-effective treatment, at an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of CAD 31 243 and CAD 29 014 per QALY gained versus the next best alternative, i.e., orlistat, and SoC, respectively. Semaglutide 2.4 mg extendedly dominated other pharmacotherapies such as NB-32 or liraglutide 3.0 mg and remained cost-effective both under a public and private payer perspective. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses varying post-treatment catch-up rates, longer treatment durations and using real-world cohort characteristics. Semaglutide 2.4 mg was the preferred intervention, with a likelihood of 70% at a WTP threshold of CAD 50 000 per QALY gained. However, when the modeled benefits of weight-loss on cancer, mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) or osteoarthritis surgeries were removed simultaneously, orlistat emerged as the best value for money compared with SoC, with an ICUR of CAD 35 723 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSION

Semaglutide 2.4 mg was the most cost-effective treatment alternative compared with D&E or orlistat alone, and extendedly dominated other pharmacotherapies such as NB-32 or liraglutide 3.0 mg. Results were sensitive to the inclusion of the combined benefits of mortality, cancer, CVD, and knee osteoarthritis.

Cost-effectiveness of semaglutide 2.4 mg in chronic weight management in Portugal

BACKGROUND

Obesity and overweight are a significant public health concern. Subcutaneous semaglutide 2.4 mg injection is a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analogue approved by the European Medicines Agency as an adjunct to a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity (diet and exercise, D&E) for the treatment obesity and overweight in the presence of at least one weight related comorbidity. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of semaglutide 2.4 mg in combination with D&E compared to D&E alone for the Portuguese setting.

METHODS

Analysis were conducted using the Core Obesity Model (COM) version 18, a Markov state transition cohort model, to predict the health outcomes and costs of weight related complications based on changes in surrogate endpoints. Efficacy and safety data were sourced from the STEP trials (Body Mass Index, systolic blood pressure and glycemic status) from a cohort of adults aged on average 48 years with obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) and ≥ 1 obesity-related comorbidities, over a time horizon of 40 years. Costs were estimated from the perspective of the Portuguese National Health Service. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of results across a range of assumptions.

RESULTS

On a patient level, Semaglutide 2.4 mg in addition to D&E compared to D&E alone, improved QALYs by 0.098 and yielded higher costs by 1,325 EUR over a 40-year time horizon, with an ICER of 13,459 EUR per QALY gained and 100% probability of cost-effectiveness at the given WTP. Semaglutide 2.4 mg remained cost-effective across all different scenarios and sensitivity analysis at a WTP of 20,000 EUR per QALY. Among the subpopulations examined, Semaglutide 2.4 mg yielded ICERs of 18,459 EUR for patients with BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 and of 22,657 EUR for patients with BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2.

CONCLUSIONS

Semaglutide 2.4 mg was cost-effective compared to D&E alone for patients with obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) and weight related comorbidities in Portugal, over a 40-year time horizon.

Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of anti-obesity drugs for chronic weight management: a systematic review of literature

Introduction

Pharmacological therapy is recommended as a second-line alternative to reverse obesity. Currently, five anti-obesity drugs (AODs) have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for chronic weight management. The aim of this paper is to investigate the pharmacoeconomic evaluation of AODs through a systematic review with a special focus on methodological considerations.

Methods

We searched the general and specific databases to identify the primary pharmacoeconomic evaluation of AODs.

Results

A total of 18 full-text articles and three conference abstracts were included in this review. Most of the economic assessments were still about Orlistat. And the observations we could make were consistent with the previous systematic review. A few studies were on the combined therapies (i.e. PHEN/TPM ER and NB ER) compared to different comparators, which could hardly lead to a generalized summary of the cost-effectiveness. Most recently, pharmacoeconomic evidence on the newest GLP 1 RA approved for the indication of obesity or obesity with at least one comorbidity emerged gradually. Modelling-based cost-utility analysis is the major type of assessment method. In the modelling studies, a manageable number of the key health states and the state transitions were structured to capture the disease progression. In particular, the principal structure of the decision model adopted in the three studies on the newly approved drug was nearly the same, which enables more in-depth comparisons and generalizations of the findings.

Conclusion

This study provided an up-to-date overview of the strengths and areas for improvement in the methodological design of the pharmacoeconomic evaluation of the licensed drugs for chronic weight management. Future modelling evaluations would benefit from a better understanding of the long-term weight loss effects of the current therapeutic options and the weight rebound process after the discontinuation of treatment.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022302648, identifier CRD42022302648.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of five anti-obesity medications from a US payer's perspective

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To determine the cost-effectiveness of anti-obesity medications (AOM): tirzepatide, semaglutide, liraglutide, phentermine plus topiramate (PpT), and naltrexone plus bupropion (NpB).

METHODS AND RESULTS

From a U.S. perspective we developed a Markov model to simulate weight change over a 40-year time horizon using results from clinical studies. According to the body mass index (BMI), cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and mortality risk were the health states considered in the model, being mutually exclusive. Costs of AOM, adverse events, cardiovascular events, and diabetes were included. We applied a 3% per-year discount rate and calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses incorporated uncertainty in input parameters. A deterministic analysis was conducted to determine the robustness of the model. The model included a cohort of 78.2% females with a mean age of 45 years and BMI of 37.1 (SD 4.9) for females and 36.8 (SD 4.9) for males. NpB and PpT were the least costly medications and, all medications differed no more than 0.5 QALYs. Tirzepatide ICER was $355,616 per QALY. Liraglutide and semaglutide options were dominated by PpT.

CONCLUSION

Compared to other AOM, PpT was lowest cost treatment with nearly identical QALYs with other agents.

Once-Weekly Subcutaneous Semaglutide 2.4 mg Injection is Cost-Effective for Weight Management in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVES

The objective of the current preliminary study was to present the cost-effectiveness analyses submitted to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) (TA10765) that deemed semaglutide 2.4 mg subcutaneous (s.c.) injection a cost-effective option for weight management in the United Kingdom (UK) alongside diet and exercise (D&E).

METHODS

The study was conducted from the National Health Service (NHS) and Personal Social Services perspective and based on the NICE reference case. The clinical safety and efficacy of semaglutide 2.4 mg s.c. injection were obtained from the Semaglutide Treatment Effect in People with Obesity (STEP) 1 trial. The previously published and validated Core Obesity Model was used to project lifetime occurrence of obesity complications, their costs and quality of life consequences over 40 years. The base case cohort had a mean starting age of 48 years and BMI of 38.7 kg/m². The confidential NHS price for semaglutide 2.4 mg s.c. injection was provided by Novo Nordisk. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were expressed as cost/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Uncertainty was assessed through sensitivity analyses, including a scenario analysis using clinical data from the STEP 2 trial and a previously published and validated Core Diabetes Model to investigate a cohort with type 2 diabetes at baseline.

RESULTS

Semaglutide 2.4 mg s.c. injection showed higher total costs and health benefits compared with D&E, with an ICER of £14,827/QALY gained. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that semaglutide 2.4 mg s.c. injection was cost-effective in 90% of cases at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY. The ICER from the scenario analysis for the diabetic population was £16,613/QALY gained, using the Core Diabetes Model.

CONCLUSION

Semaglutide 2.4 mg s.c. injection is a cost-effective therapy compared to D&E alone for patients with obesity and weight-related comorbidities in the UK. Sensitivity and scenario analyses confirm the robustness of the analyses.

How Unawareness of Weight Excess Can Increase Cardiovascular Risk?

Background: Obesity is a chronic disease with high prevalence in all age groups. Many overweight and obese people seem to be unaware of excess body weight. Aim: Analysis of people affected by the misperception of excess body weight and their eating behaviors simultaneously with selected health parameters. Methods: The study was conducted in 2017–2019 among 658 participants aged 20–79 from the population study—Bialystok PLUS (Poland). Results were based on clinical examinations and questionnaires. Results: Unawareness of overweight and obesity is common among adults (21.7%). Participants unaware of their overweight and obesity presented much higher risk factors. A high cardiovascular risk profile was observed more often among people not aware of overweight and obesity than among normal weight people (23.0% vs. 10.0%) as well as more common asymptomatic carotid artery atherosclerosis (49.7% vs. 31.3%). The subjective perception of overweight and obesity based on BMI (body mass index) was equal to 26.4 kg/m2 in women and 27.9 kg/m2 in men. The assessment of their diet was less favorable than that of people with normal weight. Conclusions: Unawareness of one’s excessive weight and its health consequences may lead to hesitancy to apply a healthy lifestyle and hence increase the cardiovascular risk in a substantial part of society. Therefore, it should be considered a part of the cardiovascular disease risk spectrum. Measurement of BMI and discussion about its health implications should be a routine procedure during healthcare contacts.